Can Supreme Grow And Keep Its Cool?

Jeffrey Malabanan has collected so much Supreme within the last 15 years that pictures from his office in Los Angeles look like they were taken inside a storage unit. Plastic bins filled with the rarest Supreme garments are stacked from the floor to the ceiling. His collection includes everything from deadstock Supreme jackets from its first collaboration with The North Face in 2008 to reverse box logo hoodies made in collaboration with Comme des Garçons in 2013—many items still have its original price tag. Malabanan is the co-owner of Rif LA, a sneaker consignment store that he opened with his business partner Edward Mateo in 2006. They both grew up collecting Supreme but didn’t consider reselling it until their shop took a hit during the Great Recession in 2008.

“When we first started reselling Supreme, it was within a small corner of my shoe store. Two years later, I literally leased out another shop and filled it with only Supreme,” says Malabanan, whose Supreme-buying clients include Tyler, the Creator, ASAP Rocky, and Travis Scott. “ComplexCon Long Beach 2017. That weekend, we sold $140,000 in Supreme. It was mostly vintage Supreme, too.”

But Malabanan believes Supreme’s allure has changed since then. Today, he thinks the fat profit margins from reselling Supreme no longer exist because less items sell out, the brand’s inventory increased, and the resale market is now oversaturated with amateur resellers from sites like StockX and Grailed—let’s not forget those nearly perfect replicas on the market. Malabanan remembers once being able to sell jackets from Supreme’s first collaboration with The North Face for $5,000 easily. Now, he would be lucky to find a buyer who would pay $2,000. Personally, he feels there are less people passionately collecting Supreme today than in the past.

“It's so hard to just make [my Supreme stock] disappear,” says the 37-year-old reseller, who admits that at his age, most people just wear what they have rather than chase what’s new. “I think it just got to the point where I'm just starting not to care. I'm not keeping up or staying updated on what they're doing. So yeah, Supreme lost my attention for sure.”

While many streetwear brands have come and gone, Supreme has managed to maintain its stake within the industry. But the brand faces growing pains as it approaches its 30th year in business and operates under VF Corp., a larger, publicly traded company that acquired Supreme in 2020 in a deal valued at $2.1 billion. This month, VF Corp.’s annual report revealed that Supreme’s revenues declined in the fiscal year that ended in March 2023 by pulling $523.1 million in revenue. In the previous fiscal year of 2022, Supreme made $561.5 million, which was below VF’s $600 million in revenue expectation. 

When a larger brand purchases a smaller brand, the goal is to grow and scale the business, but that becomes a challenging task with a company like Supreme, which has upheld its cachet by producing less product than the market demands, and therefore creating hyped drops that foster a robust resale market. Supreme has outlived many streetwear brands, but now it’s facing the same challenges that led to others' demise. What happens when something that used to be scarce feels ubiquitous in the name of growth? How does a brand adapt when young consumers, celebrities, and skateboarders who helped popularize the brand fall out of love with it? We’ve been conditioned to think high resale value determines how good, bad, hot, or cold a product is, but is that a fair metric? 

Here, we don’t declare if Supreme is dead or alive. Instead, we analyze how Supreme’s changed after its VF acquisition by speaking to collectors, resellers, and cultural stakeholders on the state of Supreme today. Will Supreme live on to become a heritage streetwear brand that remains cool? Or will its acquisition by VF Corp. serve as a cautionary tale for other streetwear brands looking to grow?

Before VF Corp. acquired Supreme in 2020, the brand quietly sold a 50% stake in the brand to the Carlyle Group in 2017. That year, Supreme released a collaboration with Louis Vuitton and opened its second New York City flagship in Brooklyn. Then, Supreme was valued at $1 billion. When their VF deal was announced three years later, that price tag doubled. At the time, VF’s chair, president, and chief executive officer Steven E. Rendle had high hopes for Supreme’s growth. 

“VF is the ideal steward to honor the authentic heritage of this cultural lifestyle brand while providing the opportunity to leverage our scale and expertise to enable sustainable long-term growth,” said Rendle in a press release on the deal. 

While VF has let Supreme grow on its own terms, being a publicly traded clothing conglomerate makes things complicated. Today, Supreme is one of many labels within a portfolio of brands (such as The North Face and Vans) that are beholden to shareholders and Wall Street investors. Before, Supreme’s revenue, losses and overall performance weren't shared publicly. But now that Supreme is a part of a public company that files financial statements with the Securities and Exchange Commission and shares transcripts questioning the brand’s performance on quarterly earnings calls with shareholders, Supreme’s business can now be publicly scrutinized. 

“I think there's a lot of skepticism from Wall Street investors about VF in general. I mean their stock is down almost 80 percent from pre-COVID highs,” says Tom Nikic, an analyst at Wedbush Securities who covers the footwear and apparel sector. “I think many people worry that they bought Supreme at the absolute peak of this streetwear/hyped apparel trend and also question how to grow and scale a brand where its core focus is restricting supply.”

After the VF deal went through, Supreme maintained its business strategy. Instead of wholesaling like other VF-owned brands, Supreme slowly increased its direct-to-consumer distribution by opening new stores in Milan, Chicago, and Berlin. It has shuttered its original Los Angeles storefront on Fairfax to expand to a larger space on Sunset Boulevard in West Hollywood. Supreme’s only other stockist is Dover Street Market. In November, Supreme opened its first store in China within DSM’s Beijing flagship years after Supreme battled an Italian-owned company that produced “legal fakes” and opened unofficial Supreme brick-and-mortar stores in Shanghai. 

But despite growing at its own pace, Supreme has not met VF’s expectations. In May, VF Corp. shared its fourth quarter results for the fiscal year of 2023 and reported a $313 million impairment for Supreme, which means that the original value of their $2.1 billion deal decreased by $313 million. It wasn’t the first impairment within that fiscal year. In October, VF also reported a $422 million impairment for Supreme within their second quarter 2023 results.  When VF’s former CEO Rendle explained why Supreme fell short of revenue expectations in an earnings call last year he said “the brand's performance was softer than planned, reflecting the significant impact from supply chain disruption.” It was later clarified in that same call that supply chain issues specifically impacted one integral aspect of the brand: its weekly drop model.

“All the supply chain headaches that went into 2022 hit Supreme really hard because as a brand that operates on the scarcity model, not having a lot of inventory at all, that means that if there were delays in product they literally have nothing to sell,” says Nikic. “Since they made the acquisition, there have been more quarters than not where Supreme's revenues have declined, year over year.”

While VF Corp. and Supreme could have moved into wholesale, it likely took lessons from Stüssy; their 43-year-old streetwear contemporary scaled up to selling clothes within multi-brand department stores during the aughts but later tightened its distribution in 2014 to make the label “cool” again. Now, Stüssy moves more like Supreme by being selective with its stockists and honing in on its direct-to-consumer business. But Stüssy is still privately owned, which means it’s not dealing with the same pressures the Supreme business has to contend with each quarter and it doesn’t have to always make decisions based on growth and revenue.

Hints at what Supreme's future could potentially look like can be seen by examining the trajectory of Bathing Ape. In 2011, BAPE’s founder Nigo sold 90% of his brand to the Hong Kong-based retailer  I.T Ltd. for $2.8 million. Post-deal, Nigo explained to WWD that he sold BAPE because of the brand’s waning popularity and declining revenue. BAPE likely sold for so low because I.T Ltd. also agreed to acquire BAPE's $32 million debt. Although BAPE still exists today, its ownership has changed. In 2021, BAPE's parent company, I.T, partnered with CVC Capital Partners and went private, leading to BAPE's separation from I.T's portfolio and being co-owned by CVC. 

When Nigo officially left BAPE in 2013, he acknowledged that I.T had a profit-driven motive but appreciated their support when coming out of the difficult economic climate created by the bank failures of 2008. It's uncertain if Supreme faced similar financial troubles during its acquisition by VF Corp. in November 2020, which was amid the COVID-19 pandemic. But VF Corp. expressed confidence in Supreme's value at the time. Scott Roe, VF Corp.’s executive vice president, told WWD shortly after the deal that he foresaw the value of Supreme only rising and had no plans to change Supreme’s approach to business even during COVID because they had “done a masterful job” during the pandemic.  

But even though Supreme's performance has only stalled since the deal, VF has defended Supreme’s impairments and addressed shareholder concerns on the brand’s growth. In October on an earnings call, Rendle said Supreme’s impairments were due to “higher interest rates and foreign currency fluctuations.” Despite the writedown that quarter, Rendle pointed out that Supreme’s revenue still grew by 7 percent and also said that VF noticed “more choiceful and cautious spending behavior” across the board. On their most recent earnings call in May, Benno Dorer (VF’s former interim president and CEO who originally replaced Rendle after he retired in December 2022) said Supreme “remains a great brand and acquisition. There's no doubt about it.” However, he did say that VF’s goal for Supreme was “to increase global access to the brand from today’s 20% of global consumers to 40%.” Dorer noted Supreme’s brick-and-mortar stores were performing very well, especially in Japan, which has six Supreme stores, the most in the world. Dorer also outlined how VF would double Supreme’s consumers globally, which includes opening more stores, expanding specifically into Asia, and delving into new product categories such as footwear.

Despite some shortcomings, Supreme is not doomed. “I think Supreme has struggled but not to the same extent Vans has struggled because they have better opportunities,” says Nikic. For VF as a whole, he believes Supreme has helped the company understand the value of a direct-to-consumer business for other brands within their portfolio, which mostly operate via wholesale. And for Supreme, Nikic believes that VF’s stable infrastructure has likely helped the brand get over supply chain issues and other challenges many clothing labels have faced coming out of COVID. But aside from supply chain issues and current economic headwinds, Nikic also believes Supreme hasn’t been able to perform as well as VF anticipated because of changing consumer tastes. 

“It used to be that everybody wanted to have a Supreme logo emblazoned across their chest. Now when I see people walking around New York City, they're wearing Essentials by Fear of God,” says Nikic—StockX also reported that Supreme was pushed out by Fear of God as the most traded apparel brand on its platform for the first time in 2022. “It's tougher because Supreme was the streetwear brand a couple years ago. Now there are brands like Off-White, Fear of God, and other popular labels within a more competitive sub-industry than it used to be.” 

BK The God was one of those Supreme collectors whose head-to-toe ‘Preme outfits always appeared on Instagram feeds alongside popular Supreme influencers like Eric Whiteback during the late 2010s. But the 34-year-old Supreme enthusiast collected the brand long before Instagram. He comes from a time when internet forums like Strictly Supreme, Someone Talked, and Hypebeast were the only ways one could buy Supreme outside of the label’s webstore. To him, the brand was changing before the VF deal.

“It’s always ebbing and flowing or evolving,” he tells Complex. “It's owned by VF and it's a mainstream brand. They're going to make it a little more mainstream than when it was just a few guys sitting in an office on Wooster hashing out ideas.”

BK The God has noticed how the brand has catered to a wider market since being acquired by VF. He says more releases are available in “XXL” sizes. Graphic T-shirts used to sell out first, but now he believes the stock has increased because they sit online in full-size runs weeks after they drop. He’s noticed there are more drops every season with VF brands like Vans, Dickies, The North Face, and Timberland—all have collaborated with Supreme years before the acquisition. While BK admits that he’s cooled down on collecting clothing in general, he picked up pieces this season made in collaboration with Cynthia Lu of Cactus Plant Flea Market and attests the quality hasn’t changed. While he believes Supreme’s fierceness within the resale market has cooled down, he’s seen the resale value rise and fall in the past as well. He believes Supreme is becoming more accessible to attract a younger demographic. 

“There's plenty of stuff that’s sold out in the past that never touched crazy numbers on the resell market,” says BK. “Have trademark items like new box logos gone down in value and become more attainable? Yeah. But what could you expect from them? Like if they put out one thing they try to keep limited and everybody buys it up to just flip it. Why wouldn't they make more of it and make it easier to get? That's essentially what a good brand does, right?” 

Because of greater accessibility, younger Supreme heads like Christopher Chance, the 25-year-old creative behind the popular streetwear and culture blog Madeintheurl, have embraced the brand even more. Chance first began collecting Supreme as a teenager after seeing celebrities like Tyler, the Creator wear it in the early 2010s. As a kid, Chance had little money. So when he did manage to find a deal for Supreme on an internet forum like Kanye To The, he usually ended up just reselling it because he couldn’t afford to keep it. Now, as an adult who works a salaried corporate job, he’s no longer concerned about the cost of Supreme and enjoys that he can browse through the brand’s releases without worrying about whether or not it will sell out.

“This was the first year that I ever got a box logo piece and didn't have to resell it like when I was younger," says Chance, who dubs Supreme his Ralph Lauren. “I'm much more comfortable blowing $1,000 on Supreme because I know that I'm going to get exactly my money's worth. I call it ‘corporate streetwear’ because obviously they still make clothes for [young] misfits; but I also feel like it's clothing for people that still have the rebellious spirit of their teenage years. It's just a lot more refined.” 

In December, Tyshawn Jones, a Bronx-born member of Supreme’s skate team, made history by becoming the first Black skateboarder to win Thrasher magazine’s “Skater of The Year” award twice. A double win has only been achieved by two other skaters within the past three decades. The Thrasher magazine cover photo unveiling his win captured Jones kickflipping over a gap between two uptown Manhattan subway platforms in a Supreme hoodie by Weirdo Dave. This crowning achievement was also aptly captured as the finale of Supreme’s third feature skate film, Play Dead, which was released that same month. 

But even though Supreme has never strayed from its core roots within skateboarding, some question if it continues to resonate with skaters outside the brand’s own friends and family. 

“I think different people look at it differently. Like obviously the hypebeast kids just buy anything that drops. But I think the skate community, personally, doesn't wear it like that as much,” says Vlad Gomez, the founder of the Bronx-born skateboard brand Public Housing Skate Team alongside Ron Baker. “Once they started putting out videos it changed my perspective on the brand in general. I think they were really smart and selective when it comes down to who they put on their team and stuff like that. I also think they're probably the only skate brand right now that has the money to support skaters.”

But when it comes to Supreme being a personal identifier for Gomez, Baker, or Soprano, all three aren’t passionate about buying or wearing the brand’s clothes today. Although Supreme is heavily influenced by urban New York City culture, Gomez feels his own brand is more representative of those who live in the Gun Hill Housing Projects it was founded in. “I think they see something cool that people in the hood wear and then they make it. But I don't think they are tapped in with it or really understand it really,” says Gomez. As for Soprano, a skateboarder who was introduced to Supreme through Odd Future while growing up in the suburbs, he feels Supreme’s growth has killed it for him.

“Wearing the brand used to feel like an identifier,” says Soprano. “But at a certain point, as the brand became bigger, it also started to mean less and less outside of the physical garment that draped from your body.”

This April, days after Supreme generated hype around their first collaboration with Undercover since 2018, its creative director Tremaine Emory spoke candidly about what he envisioned for the future of the brand during a panel held in New York City.

“My main thing is Supreme is a New York brand. Denim Tears, the muse is the African diaspora. The muse for Supreme is New York,” said Emory as reported by WWD. “There are so many stories and feelings to draw from New York and also how New York has influenced the world and put it into clothing. I want to carry on tradition, but push it forward and keep making clothing that’s meaningful to young people, to subculture, to culture and people who care about quality, well-made clothing that comes from a brand that means something.”  

Supreme-heads like BK The God feel that no matter who leads the creative direction for the brand, it doesn’t change much because they stick to a certain blueprint that works. But he does look forward to seeing Supreme tap more into Emory's own perspective on New York City culture.

“Although they let him have his way with certain things, I don't know if we've really seen his full potential yet because he's only been around for a short period of time,” says BK The God. “With Tremaine being a Jamaica, Queens, guy, I feel he's got a lot of potential to shed some light on some cool shit that people might not know about that was huge where he's from but the rest of New York might not know about.”

Younger Supreme diehards like Christopher Chance feel that Emory has already begun changing the label’s aesthetic. When Chance was a teenager buying Supreme 10 years ago, he felt the brand leaned more into the look of West Coast skaters like the late Dylan Rieder. Whereas today, he feels that New York skaters like Jones (who has been skating for Supreme since he was 14 years old) have grown up to become the main muse for the brand. Although Supreme has historically collaborated with Black artists like Kunle Martins and rappers such as Prodigy, Chance feels like the brand is speaking directly to him more today as a young Black man. 

“It feels more rooted in the Black experience than skateboarding in New York,” says Chance, who points to the brand’s recent collaborations with brands like True Religion and their baggy silhouettes for bottoms as indicators of that. “The number one thing they need right now is storytelling. But how do you tell a story that has already been told a million times? You get the best storyteller in streetwear right now and that’s Tremaine with Denim Tears.”

Geoff Heath, a graphic designer who worked for Supreme between 1998 and 2004, created many of the label’s most coveted graphics from its earliest years. As a streetwear veteran he certainly acknowledges that brands like BAPE or DC Shoes have succumbed to the pressures that come with being acquired by a larger corporation. He thinks the talk of Supreme being dead is premature.

“People say that Supreme is dead but name me any other brands today that are taking their place or even getting close to their level and you can't,” says Heath. “It's not so much that Supreme is dead but more to the fact that no one else is coming close to them. In fact, I see that the luxury brands have maintained their higher level of allure and have actually lowered themselves to more of a streetwear level. Supreme has stayed in the same spot while everyone else has moved around.” 

And even though the reseller Malabanan says he’s become disinterested with the brand, he still plans to keep and wear many of the pieces he’s held onto for over a decade. Even if much of his clientele have moved on from Supreme, he’s found that some still have a soft spot in their heart for the brand. 

“Nine months ago, Tyler, the Creator came in looking for Supreme hats. He said he was at every store and couldn't find shit. He spent almost $6,000 that day on just old Supreme hats,” shares Malabanan. “But that's who we have to wait for now. That one person who asks for that specific Supreme item.”