2020 Oscars Predictions: Who Should Win and Who Will Win

On Sunday, February 9, AWARDS SZN officially comes to an end. That's right, the 92nd Academy Awards ceremony airs, giving critics, casual moviegoers, and people who genuinely want to complain ample reasons to either say why they were right or why Hollywood hates them. For many, it's also a sigh of relief; "awards bait" season is officially over...at least for a few months. Whatever, it's cause for a celebration.

Before we get too lit, though, we have to figure out who is going to win; it was THE topic on the latest edition of Watch Less, and is what will have everyone scrambling like Howie to place their bets and parlays before the ceremony begins. The thing is, with so much "Oscar bait" out there—we're looking at you, 1917 (and Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood, low-key)—the fun of it is trying to predict how the Oscars are going to move. Will they stay consistent with what makes sense for them, or will they actually try and be the "film awards"?

Get your ballots ready and run through our look at what should (and what will) win at the Oscars 2020.

Who Should Win: Parasite

Yes, there's another Best Picture contender that's ranked higher on Complex's Best Movies of 2019 list, but award wins aren't purely about what's the superior piece of art. Narrative factors, too: what the win would mean, what it could herald, what will be a bigger statement about the year this Oscars represents in the now and five, 10 years later. The Irishman and Parasite are both A+ films in my book, but while we'll always have love for Marty, only one of those two winning would be a gamechanger.

Who Will Win: 1917

The prognosticators typically don't lie. 1917 roared into the Awards Arm Race in a big way at the Golden Globes and the momentum's only picked up steam. All signs and safe bets point to Sam Mendes' dope but not best picture taking home the night's biggest award. And honestly? Worse, more undeserving films have won in the last five years. And worse are nominated...

Dark Horse: Ford v Ferrari

But if there's one film that could cut 1917's continuous take short, here's the sleeper: Ford v Ferrari. This movie has Oscar voter catnip in all aspects, with two true blue movie stars and a deep supporting bench at that (Tracy Letts, what's goody?); compelling biopic energy; and a script that serves all the typical beats and dialog right down the middle but in a way that manages to feel comfortably familiar rather than negatively cliched. The fact that it made it this far while Bale and Damon didn't might signify the voters are fucking with it as an overall package. And, again...it would be far from the worst outcome. —Frazier Tharpe

Who Should Win: Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

Marty Scorsese having just one Oscar is not only an insult to the GOD himself, but to every movie lover to ever watch a damn movie. The man’s crafted an entire genre of film with flicks like Goodfellas (Oscar snubbed) and Casino (Oscar snubbed). And now that he’s delivered his opus in The Irishman, it makes perfect sense to celebrate a storied career of five-star storytelling. Another snub won’t tarnish a legacy like his though, just the award that keeps getting it wrong.

Who Will Win: Sam Mendes, 1917

Who doesn’t love a war movie? I know I do. But that doesn’t change the fact Sam Mendes’s 1917 is uncut Oscar bait. Literally, the entire movie is one long shot. Every bell and whistle in the business was used to spawn a visual beast of a film. But there’s more to movies than just pretty pictures and technical wizardry. Sadly, the same can’t be said when it comes to the Academy’s voting criteria for Best Director.

Dark Horse: Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite

Parasite landed as my number two film of 2019 and has earned director Bong Joon-Ho a constant comparison in the media to none other than the master himself, Alfred Hitchcock. So, would a Bong win surprise me? Not at all. The only surprising thing about his nomination is the shameful fact that he’s the first Korean director to ever nab the honor. —Nate Houston

Who Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Opinions may be muddled on the movie itself due to a limp plot and questionable politics, but one fact ringing true even in the world of fake news is that Joaquin Phoenix did his damn thing. So much so that you could probably scrap the extras, heavy rig cameras, and locations and Joker would still be every bit as good. Did the other nominees give great performances? Sure. But they didn’t singlehandedly sculpt a mid-movie into an award season tour-de-force.

Who Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Joker could have been a one-man stage play caught on an iPhone and all it would mean is that 2020 would be the first year a YouTube video won an Oscar. Face it, there’s too much hype around Joaquin for him not to win. Hopefully he has space on his mantle from sweeping up all the other awards because he’s bringing this one home too.

Dark Horse: Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

Anybody taking the trophy from Joaquin seems like a long shot, but if there is a Hail Mary it belongs to Antonio Banderas. His heart-wrenching portrayal of an aging film director is sweet, inoffensive, and very much in line with Academy M.O. of picking the role that has anything at all to do with the industry. —Nate Houston

Who Should Win: Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

Slave movies have done well at the Oscars, and Cynthia Erivo, who has been turning in some stellar performances before emerging on the American film scene over the last year, is an Oscar away from EGOT status. Harriet had its issues, but Erivo's performance wasn't one of them. She really brought Tubman's journey to life on-screen in the odd slave film that didn't highlight the gruesome violence we've seen over the last decade. An Erivo win here would be massive for her career and would make sense.

Who Will Win: Renée Zellweger, Judy

All of that said, you don't get more bait-y than a film about Judy Garland's last year of life in Britain. Zellweger has already scooped up the Best Actress Award at the SAG, BAFTA, and the Globes, and it feels like this could be a lock based on all of that movement. Stranger things have happened, but with the Oscars splitting so many awards, and Judy (which is only up for this award and Best Makeup and Hairstyling) might end up taking this one.

Dark Horse: Charlize Theron, Bombshell

While it didn't make a huge splash, Bombshell, which dove into the Roger Ailes sex assault scandal over at Fox News, got a lot of praise for how Theron dove into her portrayal of Megyn Kelly. It's hard to know if she's a full-on Method actor, but based on this and her work in 2004's Monster (which is the last time she won this award) sure make it seem like she could creep in and snatch this one for herself. —khal

Who Should Win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood

OUATIH elicited a lot of varied opinions, the seemingly unanimous opinion coming out of Tarantino's latest was "oh, Brad Pitt did that." His Cliff Booth is understated; he's rolling with Rick Fucking Dalton, baby. But he's a rider (and, mostly a driver) that beat Bruce Lee's ass, stood up to the Manson Family, and low-key saved Sharon Tate's life, all while kinda lit and basically chilling. He played it perfectly, bringing the spotlight back to how dope of an actor he's been, ushering in a chilled new phase to his career.

Who Will Win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood

In a film that's a love letter to Tarantino's vision of Hollywood, Pitt was the perfect cool cat in that era. Sipping beer, cruising the highway, protecting his squad. It's a great role for Pitt's career right now, and he knocked it out of the park.

Dark Horse: Joe Pesci, The Irishman

This is an interesting category, especially when you realize that two greats—Al Pacino and Joe Pesci—are in it for their work in The Irishman. Pacino's Hoffa is memorable because he's Jimmy Hoffa, but Pesci, who we rarely get to see these days, did that. For someone who's always playing a loud, brash character, he slid into his quiet, calmer OG realm for this; literally life imitating art. If they wanted to swan song it for Pesci, this would be a fitting tribute. —khal

Who Should Win: Florence Pugh, Little Women

Pugh had a dynamic 2019—from working on The Rock's biopic for WWE Superstar Paige (Fighting With My Family) to taking on daylight horror (A24's Midsommar) to this, a period piece that we've seen time and again (but not in this way)—her work in Little Women is a perfect note to end 2019 on for her. She's on the cusp of superstardom—she literally takes on ScarJo in Marvel's upcoming Black Widow—so she might not need this, but it'd be a dope award to sing her praises (and put the spotlight on her for her future).

Who Will Win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

There isn't much of a difference between Dern's work on Big Little Lies and her work on Marriage Story, but that's not to say she didn't do work. Her main scene is why we will always check for her, and feels like one of the few awards Netflix could easily walk away with this year.

Dark Horse: Scarlett Johansson, JoJo Rabbit

For a film that got a mixed reaction, Scarlett's work was strong. Her impromptu dance party with herself was beautifully sad, and she added a dope warmth and grounded this satirical look at the Nazi Party. With a summer blockbuster on the horizon, it'd be dope for her to stand out and say "I still do this" with a win for her thespian chops. —khal

Who Should Win: Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood

What’s not to love about Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood? Rick fucking Dalton having a meltdown in his trailer, a fanboy producer played by Al Pacino, Cliff throwing down with the Manson clan—all classic scenes in their own right. Roll them into one and they make for the kind of offbeat alt-history that only Quentin Tarantino can deliver. The man should be celebrated.

Who Will Win: Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood

With two previous wins already under his belt for best original screenplay, Quentin Tarantino pulling off a third for Once Upon a Time in… Hollywood is no tax on the imagination. Also, the fact that the entire script is about Hollywood pretty much makes it a shoo-in. —Nate Houston

Dark Horse: Parasite

I still can’t believe Parasite clinched this nomination. That’s not to say it doesn’t deserve it. The characters are refreshingly multilayered, the plot is taught, the pacing tense, and the tone even. But as recent years of #OscarsSoWhite protests have taught us, the Academy’s voting body probably doesn’t have a large percentage of members who read Korean. Its nomination shows that anything is possible though. So, maybe. —Nate Houston

Who Should Win: The Irishman

Listen, The Irishman is many things, but chief among them: it's hilarious. The dialog, the banter, even the serious, genius banality of something like "it is what it is." Scorsese, De Niro, Pesci, and Pacino are wizards but without a great script to work off of, our attention would not have been commanded as hypnotically as it is for 209 minutes. Give the legend Steve Zailian his due.

Who Will Win: Jojo Rabbit

This is, once again, going off the way the winds are blowing from recent smaller-scale award shows. Takia just scored a nice win at BAFTA, which prognosticators who take Awards Season way more seriously than me say all but assures a lock for the Academy Awards. Jojo's charm lies more in its performances than the script though, which while funny has a sort of overall Hallmark, surface morality energy to it.

Dark Horse: Little Women

Greta didn't get a Director nod but she is featured here, for a script that makes a big show out of not just being Yet Another Adaptation. It's bold structurally and interpretively, from the way it bifurcates the story into two timelines and seeks to add depth to Amy March's previously antagonistic motives. Very few adaptations offer a new perspective of the text, Greta may just get the ultimate reward for being the ultimate fan. —Frazier Tharpe