Image via Complex Original
Welcome to the August edition of Bout to Blow. As you know, we've become pretty agile at predicting hits. Occasionally, we've whiffed. Other times, we've called it before most of your favorite publications. But the point isn't just to get it "right"—anyone can look at stats and see what's going to pop.
This column has two goals:
1. To use the many tools available to us today to get some idea of what songs were really bubbling with "the people"—in other words, to insert some science into the process.
2. To contextualize that information, because raw numbers in a vacuum would have you thinking an anonymous rapper dropped onto a stellar track was hip-hop's next big rap star when he was more like an empty vehicle for a dope beat, hook, and some tattoos. Shots?
The post is obviously intended to be somewhat predictive. There's also an element, though, that is cheerleading. Many of these songs might be flourishing in certain markets, but could use wider exposure. They're tracks where the metrics suggest some forward momentum, even if the clubs and radio play don't reflect that.
Last month, we called the rise of Bobby Shmurda, although the label is definitely putting its money behind "Hot N****"—which, fair enough, it's the more forceful song. We guessed right about Childish Gambino's "3005," which is continuing to climb the Hot 100. Lupe's "Next To It" is being added to radio, and Rae Srummurd has one of the biggest songs of the summer, thanks to a Nicki remix. It remains to be seen what happens with Bandit Gang Marco, and if that song will have further legs.
What's in store for August? Check out this edition of Bout to Blow: 10 Dope Songs You Should Be Hearing Everywhere Soon.
Written by David Drake (@somanyshrimp)
Elle Varner f/ A$AP Ferg “Don't Wanna Dance”
A$AP Ferg seems to show up on a record of basically any artist that'll have him in 2014—recent collaborators include Freddie Gibbs, Haim, and Mali Music. His latest BFF is talented soul belter Elle Varner, whose retro-friendly beats (in this case, she's sampling Jimmy Castor's “I Just Wanna Stop,” which you probably know best for its role in Kanye West's “We Don't Care”) and earnest, extroverted style feel perhaps a bit out of step in these spacey and demur Tinashe-friendly times.
But as it was with her debut Perfectly Imperfect, not being in touch with the zeitgeist makes Elle's music feel even more refreshingly bold. Give or take a Jazmine Sullivan, few singers deliver with such clear, unambiguous enthusiasm. Ferg drops a wry verse from the perspective of a partner who wishes they'd stayed in and watched Martin, although it feels like he ghostwrote it for a different rapper. This record just dropped and is getting a big push to radio, and whatever its Cool rating, it's a great song. It's difficult to imagine it won't do some chart damage.
B.o.B. f/ Ty Dolla $ign “Drunk AF”
While Game went into hyper-jack mode for his latest single—seriously, it's called “Or Nah” and the beat is a 1988 Too $hort record—Ty and Wiz went back to the well with DJ Mustard and Snoop for another barely-over-the-bar Wiz performance. Speaking of one-track jacks and back-to-the-well maneauvers, B.o.B.'s latest radio single “Swing My Way” is lazier than either.
Fortunately, " “Drunk AF” bests all three songs, although it has no radio momentum yet. But it just sounds like a hit, replete with an ignorant-ass Ty Dolla verse and some “only Ty Dolla $ign” orchestral strings that make for an absurd contrast with lyrics about ratchet and freak hoes, on some wearing-Tims-to-the-symphony high art/low art shit.
Kiesza “Hideaway”
Kiesza's “Hideaway” is mere seconds from crashing into the American pop charts. Welcome to the post-“Latch” world: it's a house record—a straight-up throwback house record, not EDM—and it joins other records like Mr. Probz and the (excellent) Oliver Nelson remix of Tove Lo's “Habits” to make U.S. radio sound like a British nightclubs circa 2001, or a New York ones circa '91. Not a bad thing, per se, just kind of unexpected.
Where will our retro fascination take us next? Kiesza's video appears to be shot in the exact same trendy BK neighborhood as Catey Shaw's “Brooklyn Girls,” but it thankfully sells this post-collegiate urban fantasy with a lighter touch and more dancefloor-friendly performance.
RJ “Ride Wit Me”
This month in soon-to-be smashes, K-Camp wrote a lazy “For the Ladies” record that feels like a pandering apology for “Cut Her Off.” Meanwhile, Snootie Wild's got “Made Me” which, oops—we called a little prematurely. (Still right, though.) And the less said about Kirko Bangz's boring new hit, the better.
So who's our vote for new regional star with smash potential? Look to Pushaz Ink: much as his labelmate YG remade a Baton Rouge classic (“Who Do You Love”), RJ has recreated Juvenile's “Gone Ride With Me” for a new post-Mustard generation. Although not being pushed at radio yet, the record's nearing 100,000 views with the quickness, and RJ manages to catch a slick against-the-beat flow, Juvenile style.
Rich Gang f/ Young Thug and Rich Homie Quan “Lifestyle”
Last month, Complex indicated that “Lifestyle” was starting to show some radio traction, but in a show of support over T.I.'s mediocre Iggy Azalea collab, we threw our Young Thug chips behind Tip's “About the Money” instead. Of course, “No Mediocre” blew up, leaving “About the Money” in the dust. Thankfully, the Quan and Thug collab “Lifestyle” is blowing up in its place—and it's en route to becoming even bigger. (If you're in Atlanta, it's probably already huge.)
After kicking off with a few choice piano licks, like a Cash Money Billy Joel record, Young Thug dominates with the first two verses and the main melodic hook. Quan is relegated to accents and a brief verse at the end with some familiar (boring) similes. But really, the song is just about the sung hook, the queasy synth, and the sparse beat. Not really much of a lyrical record as much as—appropriately enough—lifestyle music. Like the best Young Thug records—“Stoner,” “Hookah”—there's an effortlessness at its core to contrast with the kinetic force of his vocal chords.
Mr. Probz “Waves (Robin Schulz Remix Radio Edit)”
If you're a fan of underground rap music you may have heard of the Dutch-born Mr. Probz, who's been featured on songs by Lloyd Banks, C-Bo, and Joe Budden. Last year, Mr. Probz house burned down and he lost almost everything—everything except his laptop and a record called “Waves,” the first song he'd written after learning to play the guitar.
He performed the song on television in his native Netherlands soon after, and it instantly began climbing iTunes. A year and a house remix by Robin Schulz later, he has one of the biggest songs in the world—and it's just finally beginning to break in the United States. If you like his hooks and rapping, check out his recent free hip-hop record The Treatment. If you're more into “Waves,” you may also dig the recording output of soft rocker Chris Rea.
August Alsina f/ Nicki Minaj “No Love (Remix)”
It's August Alsina's breakout year, and it's deserved; he's got an interesting back story and a solid string of pop R&B records on his album that just need the right level of exposure to pop off. He's up against a lack of name recognition—“Oh, the 'I Luv This Shit' guy”—which explains why every song he drops features a guest rapper to anchor it.
Thankfully, Nicki's jumped on his “No Love” record for the single push, and the effusive Drumma Boy-produced record feels like it should slot in nicely on radio. Plus, it's a much stronger release than the corny Usher and Nicki cabana bop record by Pharrell.
Foxx “Smokin Loud”
WhoSampled.com suggests Sister Nancy's “Bam Bam” has been sampled in 53 songs, and that seems like an understatement (Search: Too $hort, "Blowjob Betty." Destroy: Guerilla Black, "Compton.") So why should a little-remembered (well, on the East Coast) rapper from Baton Rouge blow up for bringing it back for another dance? Because "Blowin Loud" is forceful, funny, and transforms its raw material with irreverent glee.
Foxx is best known for owning the deed to 2007's "Wipe Me Down," the remix to which helped transform Lil Boosie into an even bigger national star. On “Smokin' Loud,” the show is all his, although this record's only had any real traction in a handful of the gulf states so far. He opens the record with a comment on the sample: “This is a different type of smoking song. I don't know what this saying, I don't really care. It just sounds good when you're high.”
No doubt plenty of Northerners might say the same about Foxx, but his gruff Southern accent is worth parsing for wit: “We be in the club lit, standing on shit/The owner said we can't smoke? Tell him suck a dick.” “Ever try to pass me some reggie, you might get beat up/We always go to jail for weed, fuck it: Free us.”
Tigo B f/ Ricco Barrino “69”
This record is liable to be divisive. It's all melodic hit-chasing, thus far just a regional record, and there aren't #bars to speak of. (Well, except stuff like "Riding on it like an elevator/Licking on it like a Now'N'Later.") But on the other hand, it's making some noise in Tigo's home state of North Carolina, and it's a euphoric ditty about (kids, go to bed) 69'ing featuring American Idol winner Fantasia's brother, Ricco. (A name you probably don't recognize from Paper Trail album tracks and regional Yung LA singles.) So that must mean something. The odds of this going long may be just that, but there's something about its earnest, lazy euphoria that sustains in spite of itself.
Drake “0-100”
Yes, Drake's "0-100" is old, and yes it has already blown up—to some degree. It's also true that a bunch of folks are going to wonder why we didn't include PartyNextDoor's "Recognize," which feels like a radio-ready record, if a bit of a banal one. But "0-100" is just now getting a big label push.
As much as his detractors may be tired of neurotic suburban solipsism given the grandiose treatment, as much as his core fans may think he peaked with Take Care, and as much as Kendrick Lamar might be challenging the throne, "0-100"—at least, the first part of it—argues effectively that Drake has yet to peak, that he remains hip-hop's dominant voice. (The second part of the song, meanwhile, argues that Drake should stop recording song suites. Just let a song be a song, bro.)
Recontextualizing the swinging “Started From the Bottom” drums to gird a fake RZA record was a smart move, as evidenced by the thousands of freestyles that arrived in its wake.