The women’s side of the US Open will close with one of the best rivalries in the sports world today: Aryna Sabalenka versus Elena Rybakina.
Saturday’s US Open Final (4 p.m. ET, ESPN) will be the 18th meeting between the two.
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head series, 10-7, and she is favored to win the 2026 crown as she has -145 odds at Fanatics Sportsbook to defeat Rybakina. Rybakina is +115.
This is a rematch of this year’s Australian Open Final, in which Rybakina defeated Sabalenka (6-4, 4-6, 6-4) despite being down 3-0 in the third set.
Sabalenka and Rybakina met two other times in 2026, with Sabalenka winning both affairs. The Belarusian dumped her rival in the final of the Indian Wells Open (3-6, 6-3, 7-6) and in the semifinals of the Miami Open (6-4, 6-3).
Adding to the drama is that Rybakina will become the No. 1 ranked WTA player in the world when the new rankings are released Monday, no matter what happens in Saturday’s final. It will end Sabalenka’s 99-week stay at No. 1.
The path to the final
Sabalenka entered Flushing Meadows in a bit of a slump, by her elite standards, as Saturday’s match will be the first finals of a tournament she’s reached since she won the Miami Open in March. In the US Open, the 28-year-old defeated Camila Osorio, Polina Iatcenko, Kamilla Rakhimova, Taylor Townsend, Linda Noskova, and Jessica Pegula to reach the Final.
Pegula was awe-struck at how well Sabalenka played in their showdown this week.
“I think that’s probably the best match she’s played this year,” Pegula told WTATennis.com. “I mean, I thought her level was insanely high … she played insane. She played a super-high level. Honestly, I don’t really know if there was much I could do today.”
Rybakina came into the tournament with injury concerns as she suffered a left ankle injury in the Cincinnati Open in August. The 27-year-old toughed it out and played elite tennis these past few weeks.
In this tournament she has beaten Thea Frodin, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Yulia Starodubtseva, Naomi Osaka, Qinwen Zheng, and Coco Gauff.
Rybakina was able to silence the largely pro-Gauff crowd with clutch shot after clutch shot.
“[Rybakina] does a great job of just being there every point and putting a lot of pressure on you on [the] service game and return game,” Gauff said. “I think she was able to hold the line a little bit better than I could.”
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina odds
Here is a look at Sabalenka versus Rybakina odds.
- Sabalenka (-145)
- Rybakina (+115)
The total sets market for this match has an Over/Under of 2.5 at Fanatics, with juice on the Under. The total games market has been set at 24.5, with juice on the Under.
Sabalenka entered the US Open as the favorite, owning +330 odds. Rybakina was +1200 entering the tournament.
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