The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a new modeling study on Wednesday, suggesting "that with high vaccination coverage and moderate NPI [nonpharmaceutical interventions] adherence, hospitalizations and deaths will likely remain low nationally, with a sharp decline in cases projected by July 2021." It was cautioned that if vaccination numbers are in decline, that “sharp decline” could be delayed. There are also concerns regarding variants, and fewer people following COVID-19 precautions such as social distancing and wearing masks.
“Although we are seeing progress in terms of decreased cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, variants are a wild card that could reverse this progress that we have made and could set us back," said CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky, per CBS News. Joe Biden’s administration is hoping to have 70 percent of American adults at least partially vaccinated by July, although vaccination rates are currently in decline.
“Nationally, reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are now decreasing or stable," the researchers for the CDC study wrote. "However, transmission remains widespread and increased cases, hospitalizations, and deaths continue to be reported in some jurisdictions and, as this study indicates, the potential for future increases persists."
The study utilized six modeling research teams to project how the pandemic will play out in the United States this year, utilizing data from John Hopkins University and a handful of federal databases. Each of the models had four scenarios, with varying rates of vaccination and adherence to COVID-19 precautions. Each of the scenarios deduced that COVID-19 cases in the United States will continue to increase through April and May, with the decline only arriving in July.