It feels too early to call it, but one historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 is doing just that. Allan Lichtman, an acclaimed author and history professor, revealed his 2020 election prediction in a new video for the New York Times.
Licthman, unlike other pundits during the 2016 election, predicted Donald Trump’s win. His predictions focus on issues voters care about, rather than relying on recent polling data.
“The pollsters and the pundits cover elections as though they were horse races,” Lichtman said in the Times’ video. “But history tells us voters are not fooled by the tricks of the campaign. Voters vote pragmatically according to how well the party holding the White House has governed the country.”
Using his prediction model, Licthman revealed that Joe Biden will take the White House in 2020, albeit by a tiny margin. The model is outlined in his book Keys to the White House, which presents 13 categories focused on the strengths of the incumbent party. The categories, or “keys,” are put into true-false statements like this: “There is no sustained social unrest during the campaign. False.”
“The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House,” Lichtman said in the video. CNBC provided a list of all 13 questions, showing a win for Biden.
Despite Licthman’s beef with polls, it’s still worth noting that Trump’s approval rating and poll numbers have dipped dramatically in recent months. NPR shows Biden currently winning over Trump with 297 to 170 electoral votes and less than three months to go until the election. Another recent poll from California shows Biden leading Trump by 40 points, according to The Hill.
Despite Lichtman's prediction, don't forget to vote in November.