All the credit to the folks over at Covers.com for uncovering these stats, but it hammers home the point we’ve been repeating for weeks now: take dogs.
Through the season’s first six weeks, underdogs are covering spreads at a robust clip of 67.2 percent so keep digging for dogs and take all the points you can. And of greater importance this week, you need to know heading into Week 7 that dogs in divisional matchups are covering the spread at a 64.2 percent clip. I bring up the last point because there are a number of enticing matchups between division rivals that have caught our handicapping eyes.
One involves two of the best teams in the AFC that happen to call the South their home. Another is the marquee Sunday night matchup between bitter rivals in the NFC East. And the third is a “rivalry” that really isn’t one since it’s been so thoroughly dominated by a legendary quarterback/coach combination for almost two decades now that calling it a rivalry is insulting to the English language.
That min-rant aside, let’s keep the good times rolling by taking a bunch of dogs for a third straight week.
Season records:
Cap: 11-6-1
Chopz: 9-8-1
Week 7
Cap
Texans (+1) at Colts
Houston's on a roll right now so why go against the hot hand? I dropped that stat last week about Deshaun Watson sporting an incredible record as a road underdog. He's now 9-1 ATS all time when you're giving him points. What more can I say?
Eagles (+3) at Cowboys
The Cowboys are in turmoil right now and should be feeling the heat as the wheels have come off the track. I hate that Eagles coach Doug Pederson has already tempted fate by predicting a win in Dallas. But I don’t need the Eagles to win. I need them to cover. And if you’re giving me three points in a matchup that has seen the road team cover 11 of the last 15 matchups, I’ll happily take ‘em.
Jets (+10) vs. Patriots
Gang Green is at home and the difference Sam Darnold makes compared to the re-tread QBS the Jets used while their franchise signal caller was out with mono was the difference between night and day. The Patriots will probably win this game because they’re the best team in the AFC and the Jets are two notches above a steaming pile of trash. But New York is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games in the Meadowlands vs. teams with winning records while New England is just 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to MetLife Stadium.
Chopz
Dolphins (+17) at Bills
Folks, I know what you're thinking, but this is just too many points, even with how bad Miami is. With Fitzmagic coming back into the fold, I think they keep it closer than expected and only lose by about 10.
Seahawks -3 vs. Ravens
This doesn't seem like a big enough spread for this game. The Ravens still haven't fixed their defensive woes and they won't suddenly get fixed during a tough road game in Seattle. Give me the Seahawks by a TD here.
Redskins +10 vs. 49ers
This smells like a trap game to me and 10 points is a huge amount for a home underdog.
