Yesterday on Sportsnet, Michael Grange made the case for the Toronto Raptors doubling down on their recent success, suggesting general manager Masai Ujiri invest in the core group as currently assembled and see how far this group can go.
The veteran columnist makes an excellent points about Toronto’s draft pick situation, pointing out that with four first-round picks in the next two drafts, Ujiri should be able to find a trade partner willing to take one (or more) of those picks off his hands in exchange for a player that helps the team right now. He mentions the all-important fifth year the Raptors will be able to offer impending free agent DeMar DeRozan at the end of the season and how no one in their right mind would tear down a team that has been trending upward for three seasons and is on course for its first 50-win season in franchise history.
And he’s right, but here’s the rub: even Grange recognizes that the best-case scenario for going all-in with this group – bringing back DeRozan at max dollars, re-signing Lowry a year later and adding around them – is probably being the Eastern Conference equivalent of the Memphis Grizzlies, a perennial 50-win team that has won four playoff series in the last five seasons and advanced to the Conference Finals once.
The fingers-crossed hope in that case would be that Toronto becomes one of the few non-dynasty teams that comes together in the Playoffs and makes an unexpected run to the Finals, a la the 2004 Detroit Pistons or the 2011 Dallas Mavericks, both of whom won championships.
The problem with that wishful thinking scenario is that in addition to being more skilled 1 through 5 than the current Raptors lineup, Detroit won in part because the Los Angeles Lakers collapsed. As for the Mavericks, they benefitted from having one of the Top 25 players of all-time (Dirk Nowitzki) at the helm and LeBron James struggling under the pressure of his first year in Miami.
Toronto doesn’t have a Dirk and their current one-two punch of DeRozan and Lowry – the one Grange advocates investing in now and for the next few years – are 0-2 in the playoffs and feel better suited to being the second- and third-best players on a championship contender, not the guys that you’re banking on to carry you to a title themselves.
A ceiling as a perennial playoff team that never completely takes the next step is solid, if unspectacular, but what Grange doesn’t get into is how this could go south if Uriji and company roll the dice with this core group for the next five years by bringing back DeRozan at the max.
Lowry turns 30 in March and has a history of fading down the stretch as a result of logging huge minutes throughout the season. Committing to DeRozan likely means committing to Lowry the following season, which means you’re paying top dollar to a 31-year-old point guard that has yet to show he can lead a team to playoff success.
DeMarre Carroll, last summer’s key free agent acquisition who is currently sidelined after undergoing knee surgery, turns 30 in the summer and is owed another $44.5M over the next three years, while Terrence Ross becomes a $10M-per-year player next season when his new extension kicks in. Even with the salary cap going way up, an inconsistent-at-best wing that struggles to knock down open looks isn’t worth that kind of money. Add in long-term dollars that are committed Cory Joseph ($23M over the next three) and Jonas Valanciunas ($64M over the next four) and you’ve got a team with a lot of money invested in a six-player group that (a) doesn’t include an elite player and (b) has not yet gotten over the hump.
It just seems strange to advocate going all-in because this is the best the team has ever been and being Conference Finals contender every year isn’t that bad. It certainly isn’t, but there are no guarantees Toronto gets there this year or any year in the future, the East continues to improve and the group that hasn’t won a playoff series to date continues to clock more miles and minutes.
Are there deals out there Ujiri could make to double-down with this group and give them a better chance to win this season and going forward? Absolutely, but the skeptic in me just can’t see this group ever being too much more than they already are and over the last two seasons, that hasn’t been good enough.
