2020 Grammys Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Should Win

Image via Getty/Andy Cross

Nominees: Bon Iver (i,i), Lana Del Rey (Norman Fucking Rockwell!), Billie Eilish (WHEN WE ALL FALL ASLEEP, WHERE DO WE GO?), Ariana Grande (thank u, next), H.E.R. (I Used to Know Her), Lil Nas X (7), Lizzo (Cuz I Love You), Vampire Weekend (Father of the Bride)

Who Will Win: Ariana Grande, thank u, next

After the big winning streak Ariana Grande had last year, it’s only fitting that the Recording Academy will choose her over the rest of the nominees. Grande’s thank u, next was a big commercial success, debuting at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 chart. But this award is also about the prestige and overall presentation of the album, which Grande clearly succeeded in. Grande might consider this a fun project that she made in her bedroom with her best friends, but to the Academy, it’s a well-rounded pop album that draws from real-life experiences to tell a story. Also, for any conspiracy theorists out there: Remember when Ariana refused to attend the Grammys last year after the show's producers wouldn't let her perform "7 Rings"? Well, she will be performing this year. Maybe she's been let in on the fact that she's a big winner? Something to think about!

Who Should Win: Ariana Grande, thank u, next

While most of the nominees for Album of the Year are strong, Ariana Grande deserves the win for thank u, next. When Ari’s fifth studio album arrived in February 2019, it received widespread critical acclaim from critics, fans, and her peers. Thank u, next is a top-to-bottom great pop album that demonstrates Grande’s astounding vocal ability and vulnerable storytelling (special shout out to songwriters Victoria Monét and Tayla Parx). Commercially, the album performed well, debuting at No. 1 on the Billboard 200. And the title track broke the record for most streams received by a song in a single day for a female artist with 8.19 million streams on Spotify (the record was later broken by Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You”). “Thank u, next” also surpassed 100 million streams on Spotify 11 days after its release, becoming the fastest song to achieve that feat, that is, until “7 rings” broke the record nine days after its release. More important than numbers or charts, though, thank u, next marks a pivotal moment for the singer. The project was created amidst a media storm surrounding the death of her ex-boyfriend Mac Miller and break up from fiancé Pete Davidson. — Jessica McKinney

Nominees: Black Pumas, Billie Eilish, Lil Nas X, Lizzo, Maggie Rogers, Rosalía, Tank and the Bangas, Yola

Who Will Win: Billie Eilish

The Best New Artist category is always tricky. It usually includes a handful of artists who have been releasing music for years and overlooks hip-hop artists (sorry, DaBaby). This year, the Grammy will likely go to Billie Eilish. According to the Academy’s new policy for the category is as follows: “An artist will be considered for best new artist if their eligibility year release(s) achieved a breakthrough into the public consciousness and notably impacted the musical landscape.” Billie’s WE ALL FALL ASLEEP, WHERE DO WE GO? certainly changed the pop landscape. Instead of fluffy singles, Billie opted for dark music that blurred lines and dared to experiment with song structures and genres. It was also massively commercially successful and pushed Billie to become one of the world’s biggest stars. It doesn’t get more impactful than that. 

Who Should Win: Billie Eilish

Billie is unmatched. Her distinct sound, which often takes the form of a whisper or a hum over trap-infused goth-pop beats makes her a standout among her peers. At just 17 years old, Billie’s debut studio album debuted at No.1 on the Billboard 200. After falling two the second spot in its second week, it shot back up, marking the first album by a youngest female artist to top the chart in 10 years, and Billie became the youngest female artist to spend more than a week on the top in 20 years. Writing all her songs herself (along with her brother Finneas), she deserves this one. As Tyler, the Creator once put it: “That bitch is big. That [girl] came from nowhere. I think it’s sick.” —Jessica McKinney

Nominees: Lady Gaga (“Always Remember Us This Way”), Billie Eilish (“bad guy”), Tanya Tucker (“Bring My Flowers Now”), H.E.R. (“Hard Place”), Taylor Swift (“Lover”), Lana Del Rey (“Norman Fucking Rockwell”), Lewis Capaldi (“Someone You Loved”), Lizzo (“Truth Hurts”)

Who Will Win: Lizzo, “Truth Hurts”

The Recording Academy adores Lizzo. Just look at the eight nominations she received across all categories. And it does make the most sense that she is nominated for “Truth Hurts” in the Song of the Year category. That was, after all, her biggest hit of 2019. The track was technically released in 2017, but thanks to the re-release as a radio single two years later, it qualified for this year’s Grammys season. Including the track on Lizzo’s third studio album, Cuz I Love You, as a bonus track, as well as a placement in Netflix’s original film Someone Great, likely helped the single climb the Billboard Hot 100 chart, peaking at No. 1. It’s also worth noting that “Truth Hurts” transformed into a movement outside of music, with companies and business professionals using the singer’s “100% that bitch” lyric for slogans and campaigns. The song’s impact will be difficult for the Academy to ignore in this category.

Who Should Win: Billie Eilish, “bad guy”

Billie Eilish’s “bad guy” isn’t your average pop song, but it’s the disruptive anthem the music industry needed. If you remember, Song of the Year is awarded to the lyricist and composer who wrote the lyrics and melody of the single (as apposed to Record of the Year, which awards performers). In this case, that would be Billie and her older brother Finneas. “Truth Hurts” may be fun to sing along to, but in terms of composition and lyricism, it doesn’t come close to what the brother and sister duo did on “bad guy.” The record is daring, with lyrics that display sexuality and power, and complex in its incorporation of pop, goth, and hip-hop sounds. No one is making pop music like Billie Eilish, and she deserves this one (even though the Academy will likely choose “Truth Hurts” instead). —Jessica McKinney

Nominees: Bon Iver (“Hey, Ma”), Billie Eilish (“bad guy”), Ariana Grande (“7 Rings”), H.E.R. (“Hard Place”), Khalid (“Talk”), Lil Nas X f/ Billy Ray Cyrus (“Old Town Road”), Lizzo (“Truth Hurts”), Post Malone and Swae Lee (“Sunflower”)

Who Will Win: Lil Nas X f/ Billy Ray Cyrus, “Old Town Road”

There was no success story bigger in 2019 than that of Lil Nas X and “Old Town Road.” With the simple sampling of a banjo from Nine Inch Nail’s “34 Ghosts IV,” this country rap anthem swiftly moved from TikTok to No. 1 on the Billboard charts—a spot the song maintained for a record 19 consecutive weeks. The rise of this song was strategic. At first, the head honcho’s over at Billboard disqualified the song from being on the country charts. So, to clap back, Lil Nas X drafted the legendary Billy Ray Cyrus to add some validation. Lo and behold, “Old Town Road” became the number one song in the country, the fastest U.S. song to reach diamond certification, and easily the biggest record of the year. It’s a safe bet that the Academy will reward these accomplishments with Record of the Year awards.

Who Should Win: Lil Nas X f/ Billy Ray Cyrus, “Old Town Road”

At this point, many of us are sick of “Old Town Road” after hearing it a million times over the past year, but its impact and catchiness is undeniable. While this was far from the first time hip-hop and country music blended into one another (peep “Over and Over” by Nelly and Tim McGraw), “Old Town Road” felt fresh in the midst of a hip-hop landscape that’s been dominated by melodic trap. This song shook things up and forced angry country and industry heads to redefine what genres really were. “Old Town Road” took the entire country by storm, creating a song that was stuck in everyone’s head, whether you were a fan or not. It deserves this award.  —Kemet High

Nominees: Dreamville (Revenge of the Dreamers III), Meek Mill (CHAMPIONSHIPS), 21 Savage (I Am > I Was), Tyler, the Creator (IGOR), YBN Cordae (The Lost Boy)

Who Will Win: Meek Mill, Championships

Meek Mill’s Championships album arrived at a wild time for the artist. In November 2017, he was sentenced to two to four years in state prison for violating the terms of his parole related to a 2008 conviction. He served five months in prison before he was released in April 2018, pending the outcome of his appeal to the Pennsylvania supreme court. Shortly after his release, he announced the album. It could’ve failed, but Meek proved he had much more to say, and released an excellent project from top to bottom. Sure, the Grammy isn’t given to the artist who goes through the most obstacles, but Meek’s high-profile case, along with the overall quality of the album, will likely be met with praise from the Academy. There are all kinds of nice storylines they can attach to with a pick like this.

Who Should Win: Tyler, the Creator, IGOR 

Sure, we know IGOR isn’t a traditional rap album. Tyler, the Creator said it himself. But the fact of the matter is, the Recording Academy missed the opportunity to nominate this project in the Album of the Year category, and so we think it’s only right they award Tyler for creating not only his most commercially success (the album marked Tyler’s first No. 1 album on the Billboard 200), but also a thrilling projects that peels back the layers of Tyler’s aggressive and jarring persona to reveal his soulful, abstract, and nuanced artistry. IGOR, our favorite album of the year (regardless of genre), deserves some justice. —Jessica McKinney

Nominees: YBN Cordae f/ Chance the Rapper (“Bad Idea”), Rick Ross f/ Drake (“Gold Roses”), 21 Savage f/ J. Cole (“A Lot”), Nipsey Hussle f/ Roddy Ricch and Hit-Boy (“Racks in the Middle”), DaBaby (“Suge”)

Who Will Win: Nipsey Hussle f/ Roddy Ricch and Hit-Boy, “Racks in the Middle”

After walking away empty-handed at the 2019 Grammys, this might be the best opportunity to award Nipsey Hussle with a posthumous award. Of course, the Academy has been known to nominated deceased artists and not give him the award (fans are still reeling over last year’s Mac Miller snub), but this time it feels different. The Grammys are also gearing up to honor Nip with a huge tribute featuring his “Racks in the Middle” collaborator Roddy Ricch, along with John Legend, DJ Khaled, and Meek Mill. That being the case, there’s a real possibility that award is going home with his family. 

Who Should Win: Nipsey Hussle f/ Roddy Ricch and Hit-Boy, “Racks in the Middle”

While Hussle’s death will undoubtedly play a role in the voting process, it’s not just about Nip being posthumously honored. The track performed really well digitally, generating more than 11.8 million streams and becoming his highest-charting single as a lead artist. More importantly, “Racks in the Middle” is, simply put, a great rap record from top to bottom. It’s one of our favorite rap songs of 2019, and it deserves this award. —Jessica McKinney

Nominees: J. Cole (“Middle Child”), DaBaby (“Suge”), Dreamville f/ J.I.D, Bas, J. Cole, EARTHGANG, and Young Nudy (“Down Bad”), Nipsey Hussle f/ Roddy Ricch and Hit-Boy (“Racks in the Middle”), Offset f/ Cardi B (“Clout”)

Who Will Win: J. Cole, “Middle Child”

From Friday Night Lights to KOD, J. Cole used the past decade to bounce between cassette tape and SoundCloud rap styles, to ascend to rap royalty. Despite “Middle Child” being the only solo effort we got from Cole last year, the song’s message slapped even harder than its sound. With lyrics like, “I'm dead in the middle of two generations/I'm little bro and big bro all at once/Just left the lab with young 21 Savage/I'm 'bout to go and meet Jigga for lunch,” J. Cole reflects on how he’s been able to play both sides and last in a game that’s been reexamined more times than the word “dub.” Grammy nominations aren’t new for Cole. In fact, he’s received 11 so far. But with the truth of this record and recollection of how great he’s been as an artist over the last 10 years, it’s a good bet that the Grammys will wake up and finally give some credit where it’s been due. Cole has a good chance to finally win his first Grammy.

Who Should Win: DaBaby, “Suge”

DaBaby is a rap superstar. Straight up. Although he graced the cover of XXL’s Freshman issue with some premiere talent, it’s been clear to the world that he navigates in a lane of his own. His peers haven’t been able to catch up, if we’re being honest, and that’s because he keeps a stash of songs like “Suge” at his disposal. In a lot of ways, the song’s title accurately reflects the commanding force DaBaby has harnessed over the last year, similar to Suge Knight in the 1990s. The recipe of “Suge” is  composed of carefree and confident tropes that had everybody Diddy-bopping this summer. It’s still early in the game, for sure. But DaBaby shows promise of being a future rap legend. And every legend needs that one culture-shifting song to add to their list of accolades. With “Suge,” DaBaby got his early, and he deserves this award. —Kemet High

Nominees: DJ Khaled f/ Nipsey Hussle and John Legend (“Higher”), Lil Baby and Gunna (“Drip Too Hard”), Lil Nas X (“Panini”), Mustard f/ Roddy Ricch (“Ballin’”), Young Thug f/ J. Cole and Travis Scott (“The London”)

Who Will Win: DJ Khaled f/ Nipsey Hussle and John Legend, “Higher”

“Higher” has all of the ingredients of a Grammy-winning song. For starters, the song boasts three previously nominated artists. Khaled was nominated three times in 2012, 2017, and 2020, while Nipsey received his first nomination in 2019 and is currently nominated in two categories this year. John Legend, the most decorated out of the bunch, has won 10 awards out of 29 nominations. And, in addition to each artist’s resume, the song holds cultural significance. “Higher” was released a little over a month after Hussle’s death. Khaled said the song’s creation was an “emotional journey” and later announced that profits from the sales of the record would be given to Nip’s two children. Khaled and Legend will each perform at the tribute on Grammys night, and we could see the Academy awarding this song with some hardware.

Who Should Win: Mustard f/ Roddy Ricch, “Ballin’”

In our minds, Mustard and Roddy Ricch’s “Ballin’” is more of a gospel song than anything else, but since it technically fits all the guidelines of a rap/sung track, it’s only fair they get what is rightfully theirs. The record peaked at No. 11 on the Billboard Hot 100, but its chart success doesn’t even come close to describing the song’s impact. “Ballin’” is that jubilant hood anthem that you would expect to hear blaring through the streets. Between Mustard’s strong production and Roddy’s melodic raps, this track deserves to go home a winner. It is, after all, the very best song of 2019. —Jessica McKinney

Nominees: H.E.R. f/ Bryson Tiller (“Could’ve Been”), Emily King (“Look At Me Now”), Chris Brown f/ Drake (“No Guidance”), Lucky Daye (“Roll Some Mo”), PJ Morton f/ JoJo (“Say So”)

Who Will Win: H.E.R. f/ Bryson Tiller, “Could’ve Been”

The Academy loves H.E.R. With five prior nominations and two awards already under her belt (one for Best R&B album, even though she explained that it was a mixtape), she scored again this year with five additional nominations. A couple of those are for the slow-burner, “Could’ve Been.” Featuring a verse from Bryson Tiller’s ghost, “Could’ve Been” is classic enough for it to beat all of the other nominees. They’re no modern version of Marvin Gaye and Tammi Terrell, but Bryson Tiller and H.E.R. approach this song with a subtly striking hesitancy that allows their two styles to dissolve into one another. Is the best song in this category? Not in our eyes. But it’s safe enough, and safe has surely become Grammys criteria. 

Who Should Win: Chris Brown f/ Drake, “No Guidance”

As two of the biggest artists in their respective genres, a new collaboration between Drake and Chris Brown has been a long time coming. One thing they both have in common, other than their history with Rihanna, is the undeniable skill to make a certified hit, exemplified in “No Guidance.” Starting off with a sample by Che Ecru that floats the words, “Before I die I’m trying to fuck you baby/ Hopefully we don’t have no babies,” across the intro, “No Guidance” has an innate ability to make your head knock. We don’t even have to get into its commercial success—of course it topped the charts. Straight off of the ear, there’s no song on the list that hits as hard as this one right here. —Kemet High

Nominees: Daniel Caesar (“Love Again”), H.E.R. f/ Bryson Tiller (“Could’ve Been”), Lizzo f/ Gucci Mane (“Exactly How I Feel”), Lucky Daye (“Roll Some Mo”), Anderson .Paak f/ Andre 3000 (“Come Home”)

Who Will Win: Lizzo f/ Gucci Mane, “Exactly How I Feel”

We can’t say it enough: the Recording Academy loves Lizzo. “Exactly How I Feel” wasn’t even released as a single from Cuz I Love You, but it seemed to catch their attention. The singer spoke about the song’s message on Apple Music, saying, “It’s an ode to being proud of your emotions, not feeling like you have to hide them or fake them. But the Gucci feature was just fun.” Lizzo’s first collaboration with Gucci Mane is another extension of her empowering and positive persona, which will likely go over well during the voting process. 

Who Should Win: Anderson .Paak f/ Andre 3000, “Come Home”

While Lizzo does deserve her props for introducing more funk and rhythmic tunes to mainstream music, her songs are more pop-leaning than R&B or rap. When you think of “Come Home,” on the other hand, that’s a traditional R&B song that’s reminiscent of the 1960s and 1970s. Anderson .Paak and Andre 3000 together are magical. Paak also deserves some points for persuading a reclusive 3 Stacks to come out of hiding. Give him this award! —Jessica McKinney

Nominees: BJ the Chicago Kid (1123), Lucky Daye (Painted), Ella Mai (Ella Mai), PJ Morton (Paul), Anderson .Paak (Ventura)

Who Will Win: Ella Mai, Ella Mai

Ella Mai’s self-titled album is an ode to ’90s R&B and love. The project, which was produced entirely by Mustard, peaked at No. 5 on the Billboard 200. As Ella Mai’s first full-length project, it was a good introduction to who she is as an artist. Plus, the success of “Boo’d Up” alone will likely earn her a Grammy.

Who Should Win: Anderson .Paak, Ventura

Anderson .Paak’s Ventura didn’t perform that much better than Ella Mai’s debut, from a commercial standpoint. It peaked at No. 4 on the Billboard 200. Even so, the album served as a great comeback following the poor reception to 2018’s Oxnard. Ventura was an ambitious and fresh project that incorporated all of the elements that made .Paak so exciting and popular in the first place. The album was clearly a continuation of 2016’s Malibu, fusing funk, soul, and R&B together. As you will recall, Malibu was nominated for Best Contemporary Album in 2017, but didn’t take home the award. So, in our eyes, Ventura should win the Grammy to make up for that snub. —Jessica McKinney

Nominees: Steve Lacy (Apollo XXI), Lizzo (Cuz I Love You), Georgia Anne Muldrow (Overload), NAO (Saturn), Jessie Reyez (Being Human in Public)

Who Will Win: Lizzo, Cuz I Love You (Deluxe)

As the most nominated artist of the 2020 Grammy Awards, Lizzo will likely receive this nod, among a few others of her eight award considerations. Whether you’re tapped into the feel-good records that make up Cuz I Love You, or you’re a social media witness of her questionable sideline antics, Lizzo’s success story and name has captured the attention of millions. The three singles off of the deluxe version of Cuz I Love You have had plenty of time to marinate. “Water Me” dropped in August of 2017! The most successful, “Truth Hurts,” dropped in September of 2017. And “Boys” dropped in June of 2018. Did she rig the system? Maybe. But I guess acknowledgement is better late than never. She’ll easily take this one home. No shade to her competitors, but this one is not even close, hate it or love it. 

Who Should Win: NAO, Saturn

We’re going to need y’all to stop sleeping on NAO. She doesn’t sing with the range of a lead gospel singer. She doesn’t make music that will make you put your drink down and rush to the dance floor to bust a whine. And she’s not an R&B chart-topper who’s mastered the art of crafting industry receptive hits. Her sound is niche. But nonetheless, she lives as a poetic prophet who thrives off of providing synesthesia upon hearing her music. She remains pretty under-the-radar still, but that shouldn’t excuse the Academy for overlooking her. Take away all of the fluff that comes with charting, followers, and streams, Saturn is a gift of thoughtful music that should be awarded for how raw it is. —Kemet High

Nominees: Beyoncé (“Spirit”), Billie Eilish (“bad guy”), Ariana Grande (“7 Rings”), Lizzo (“Truth Hurts”), Taylor Swift (“You Need to Calm Down”)

Who Will Win: Lizzo, “Truth Hurts”

Who Should Win: Billie Eilish, “bad guy”

(See Song of the Year category for reasoning) 

Nominees: Beyoncé (The Lion King: The Gift), Billie Eilish (WHEN WE ALL FALL ASLEEP, WHERE DO WE GO?), Ariana Grande (thank u, next), Ed Sheeran (No.6 Collaborations Project), Taylor Swift (Lover)

Who Will Win: Ariana Grande, thank u, next

Who Should Win: Ariana Grande, thank u, next

(See Album of the Year category for reasoning)

Nominees: Jack Antonoff, Dan Auerbach, John Hill, Finneas, Ricky Reed 

Who Will Win: Jack Antonoff

Jack Antonoff had his hands in a lot in 2019, and this year’s nominations come from his work on massive albums like Taylor Swift’s Lover and Lana Del Rey’s Norman Fucking Rockwell!. His versatility is what propels him past the competition in this one. That’s clear to everyone, making it impossible for the Academy to overlook his hot streak. When they sit down for deliberation, his discography in 2019 alone will speak volumes that roar past his competition, despite there being some hard-hitting projects in the mix of this category. He’s done more. But with that he’s also provided quality to his quantity. He’ll take home bragging rights for this award. Looking back at the three projects he helped composed, how could you argue otherwise? 

Who Should Win: Jack Antonoff

Jack Antonoff was in his bag this year. With years in the game as a producer, songwriter, and instrumentalist, he’s already received 14 nominations for 10 different Grammy categories, which includes everything from Best New Artist to Best Song Written for a Visual Media. With production credits on two of the years biggest and most anticipated drops, these Grammy nominations show his firm grasp on producing quality for others as well as he does for himself. Aside from the genres of soft rock and pop, he also worked with Kevin Abstract to produce Arizona Baby, proving that he can get his hands dirty in the world of hip-hop as well. Deserving would be an understatement. He’s nearly done it all this year. —Kemet High