WNBA trade deadlines usually come and go without much noise that truly shakes things up, at least not to the extent they were in 2026. The Los Angeles Sparks and Phoenix Mercury clearly didn't get that memo, as speculation surrounding one of the league’s most high-profile names came to fruition, sending shockwaves across the league. Five-time All-Star guard Kelsey Plum was shipped to the desert in exchange for Monique Akoa Makani and two future draft picks.
The Mercury decided to bet the house on one of two potential outcomes. The first was an unlikely late-season playoff push, and the second was surely the hope that Plum would want to remain in Phoenix beyond 2026. Plum is set to become an unrestricted free agent this coming winter, and the rumor mill is already spinning about where one of the league’s most elite scorers and playmakers will land.
The Phoenix Supermax Gamble
The Phoenix Mercury took a significant calculated risk by making the move for Plum, and they were obviously well aware of that. By shipping off a promising 25-year-old defensive talent like Akoa Makani and a highly coveted 2027 first-round pick, it was essentially the closest you can come to going all-in at the moment.
Fortunately, Phoenix does have one significant advantage after acquiring Plum midseason. They can now offer her significantly more money via a supermax contract extension than any other suitor on the open market.
Owner Mat Ishbia has made it clear through both the Mercury and the Phoenix Suns that he’s more than willing to open the checkbook if it means putting the team in a better position to contend for a title. While Plum understandably still intends to test the free-agency waters, as ESPN reported, pairing her alongside Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas was a move with the upside and intrigue that may have been enough to keep her for the long haul. For good measure, as NBC Sports highlighted, Plum and Copper are good friends, so that could help out in the free agency process.
Plum has yet to give anything away about her future thus far, but as the season winds down, there should be more and more conversation about it.
West Coast Bias and the Expansion Wildcards
Regardless of the financial side and Plum’s fit alongside Thomas, Copper and the rest of the Mercury, everything is likely on the table still at this point. So, in the hypothetical outcome where Plum doesn’t feel quite at home with the Mercury, there’ll be no shortage of interest across the WNBA in the 31-year-old.
Among the potential factors worth considering is location, which could prove more important than one would think. Plum is a California native who gets to be close to her family, which immediately puts several franchises in a potentially advantageous position.
The Seattle Storm are an intriguing team to monitor for a high-level free agent, but the true wildcards in the Kelsey Plum sweepstakes are the league's newest expansion teams. The Golden State Valkyries have the deep pockets, the Bay Area allure, and the desperation that could be incredibly enticing to Plum, as she’d immediately become the face of the franchise.
Additionally, the recently rebooted Portland Fire could make a serious run at Plum, and her scoring ability would be a welcome addition that could help push the Fire forward in a big way. They have a blank canvas and the cap space to construct a roster specifically tailored to Plum’s offensive skillset
Plum is the type of offensive talent that rarely hits the open market when free agency rolls around. In turn, expect the Mercury to back up the Brinks truck to try to keep her, and several other franchises to take a huge swing in attempting to lure her to sign.
While the Mercury aren’t technically out of the WNBA playoff race yet and hold lengthy odds of +20000 to win the WNBA title this year on Fanatics, they’re still floating around 6.5 to 7.5 games behind the last playoff spot. It’d take a lot for Phoenix to make the postseason, but never count out some chaos in the sports world.
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