It's starting to get silly out there for bettors.
Credit the The Action Network for this stat, but to give you an idea of how absurd and out of whack some of these lines are so early in the season, Week 3 will be the first featuring two teams favored by 17 points or more since at least 1993. That's not supposed to happen in the league that prides itself on parity and boasts of competitive balance unlike any other major American sport.
But when you have two putrid squads facing off against two of the premier teams in the NFL this early in the season, like we do this week (Patriots -22 vs. Jets, Cowboys -21.5 at Dolphins), why would we expect anything different? If the Jets are trash then that makes the Dolphins a tire fire in a landfill meaning New England and Dallas should absolutely pound those sorry excuses for franchises by five touchdowns are more.
So for our purposes here, the question then becomes are the Patriots and Cowboys worth throwing down on? While covering 22 and 21.5 points doesn't seem like that difficult of a task considering how explosive the Boys and Pats have been—and how horrifyingly inept the Jets and Fins have looked—bet on the big favorites are your own peril. Per the Action Network again, "NFL teams that have been favored by 17 or more points are 6-15 against the spread all-time."
History says the Jets and Dolphins will likely cover and the books (and/or bookies) out there will be rooting like hell for New York and Miami since the majority of the bets and money have been placed on New England and Dallas. After mixed results in Week 2, do we have the stones to back the bottom feeders in Week 3?
Season records:
Cap: 3-2-1
Chopz: 3-3
Week 3
Cap
Colts -1 vs. Falcons
I personally think this line should be higher and don't get why this game is hovering at nearly Pick 'Em status. Colts are home after back-to-back road games and Falcons are just 1-5 ATS in their last five road games and a measly 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win (which they secured last week in a rugged game against the Eagles).
Raiders +9 at Vikings
If you're giving me a touchdown and field goal against Kirk Cousins I'm almost always going to take it. Vikings success is predicated on the run and Oakland has been tough against it through the season's first two weeks. The Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four 1 p.m. ET kickoffs over the last two seasons, but that's not deterring me here.
Dolphins +21.5 vs. Cowboys
I'll bite and take the boatload of points. Diving even deeper than the above research, Jason Logan of Covers reports NFL teams favored by 20 or more are 0-8 ATS since 1980. Sure, it's a small historical sample size, but when you're searching for any kind of edge finding that gem hypes you up to take the massive underdog that's starting the unproven Josh Rosen.
Chopz
Chiefs -5.5 vs. Ravens
I know everyone is ready to put the Ravens in the Super Bowl, but they've played two really bad teams to start the season. I think the Chiefs show that they're on another level than the rest of the AFC (other than the Patriots) and win big.
Giants +6 vs. Buccaneers
The Daniel Jones era might not start with a win, but I think he'll play well enough that this game is closer than people think.
Browns +3 vs. Rams
Call me a homer all you want, but give me the home underdog here. The Browns need to play better than they have the first two weeks of the season, but the Rams haven't exactly looked that sharp, either. I think the Browns take this one.
