According to BoxOffice, the film’s general range is between $185 million and $225 million, which is where 2017’s The Last Jedi was presumed to land. If Rise of Skywalker opens below $220 million, its debut will be lower than 2015’s The Force Awakens ($248M) and The Last Jedi ($220M). While the previous two Star Wars trilogies’ total grosses have followed a similar pattern—the middle movie makes around 30 percent less than the trilogy-starter, while the conclusion earns about 25 percent more than the middle entry—opening weekends all saw an increase, Forbes reports.
Skywalker could open below Last Jedi but could still have a longer reach. Episode IX’s numbers will really be proven during its first week rather than opening weekend. Mid-to-late-December releases reap solid numbers largely due to a two-week holiday break, which lasts until the beginning of the new year, where many kids and adults are on vacation. The Rise of Skywalker will have just two days between its first Sunday (December 22) and Christmas Day (December 25, a Wednesday) after which it’ll ramp up.
Helmed by J.J.Abrams, The Rise of Skywalker is being publicized as the last chapter in the Skywalker-specific Star Wars saga. The film lands in theaters Dec. 20.