2023 Grammys Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Should Win

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Nominees: God Did – DJ Khaled, Come Home The Kids Miss You – Jack Harlow, Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers – Kendrick Lamar, It’s Almost Dry – Pusha T, I Never Liked You – Future

Who should win: Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers – Kendrick Lamar

Who will win: Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers – Kendrick Lamar

Kendrick Lamar’s Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers is a feat. After years of silence and forcing his fans to revisit his catalogue (a cruelty, I know) through a drought of new music from the mastermind, Kendrick returned with this chaotic offering. It’s bold, risky, imperfect, and self-aware. As rap moves into a new era (or more accurately, into the second half of its lived century), I’d consider it wise to celebrate risk, innovation, and creativity in the space. Kendrick returned with an album full of his thoughts from time spent with his pen, family, and therapist. It had songs that both made us move, and moved us. Although nearly every other project nominated has standouts (in varying degrees of strengths), Lamar’s project has the most longevity. Kendrick was the second-most nominated artist this year (following Beyoncé), and this one feels like a given. —Ecleen Luzmila Caraballo

Nominees: “Churchill Downs” (Jack Harlow ft. Drake), “God Did” (DJ Khaled ft. Rick Ross, Lil Wayne, JAY-Z, John Legend & Fridayy), “The Heart Part 5” (Kendrick Lamar), “pushin P” (Gunna & Future ft. Young Thug), “Wait For U” (Future f/ Drake & Tems)

Who should win: “The Heart Part 5,” Kendrick Lamar

“The Heart Part 5” is one of the best songs to come from Kendrick Lamar’s Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers rollout, and it originally wasn’t even on the album. The lead single puts the Compton rapper’s lyrical versatility on full display. Using the idea of perspective as the thesis, Kendrick raps from the vantage point of different notable Black figures. “The Heart Part 5” is the embodiment of hip-hop storytelling. It should win, but we all know the Academy hasn’t always prioritized the fundamentals of rap.

Who will win: “God Did,” DJ Khaled ft. Rick Ross, Lil Wayne, JAY-Z, John Legend & Fridayy

DJ Khaled only has one Grammy, but “God Did” is going to change that. The song commanded a moment in rap with Hov’s show-stopping verse (although we believe Lil Wayne’s to have been better), and the track made significant waves before it even dropped. It reflects what rap has become in 2022, a genre dominated by moments, and few were more compelling than the eager questioning of whether “God Did” would live up to the hype. We believe the Academy will decide that it did. —Jordan Rose

Nominees: “God Did” (DJ Khaled ft. Rick Ross, Lil Wayne, Jay-Z, John Legend & Fridayy), Doja Cat “Vegas” (Doja Cat), “pushin P” (Gunna & Future ft. Young Thug”, “F.N.F. [Let’s Go] (Hitkidd & GloRilla), “The Heart Part 5” (Kendrick Lamar)

Who should win: “F.N.F.,” Hitkidd & GloRilla

GloRilla was the MVP of 2022 thanks to her fiery and aggressive anthem “F.N.F. (Let’s Go).” It’s a catchy track that flexes the Memphis artist’s charismatic energy and one-of-a-kind flow. What makes the track stand out even more is Glo’s husky vocals over a menacing and simplistic beat. Rap is in a very eerie place at the moment due to unexpected deaths and prominent legal cases. But GloRilla’s record reminds fans that the genre can still be fun and energetic. 

Who will win: “God Did,” DJ Khaled ft. Rick Ross, Lil Wayne, Jay-Z, John Legend & Fridayy

“God Did” had a big moment last year as well. If there’s one thing that DJ Khaled is good at, it’s recruiting huge stars to hop on his records. Prior to its release, Khaled teased that the song included Jay-Z’s best verse of his career. And while his verse definitely created some debate online, it’s worth noting that Lil Wayne also delivered quite an unforgettable verse. In fact, the entire song is well-crafted with great performances. “F.N.F.” is a great song, but the explicit lyrics may make some of the Academy members uncomfortable. Plus, “God Did” is a likely pick because it was a huge rap moment and includes a lot of heavy hitters.  —Jessica McKinney

Nominees: “Beautiful” (DJ Khaled Featuring Future & SZA), “Wait For U” (Future ft. Drake & Tems), “First Class” (Jack Harlow), “Die Hard” (Kendrick Lamar ft. Blxst & Amanda Reifer), “Big Energy [Live]” (Latto)

Who should win: “Wait For U”

Tems has become a cheat code for artists looking to add melody to their records. Future proved that when he dropped his single “Wait For U” in May. The track, which also includes Drake, was always going to garner attention and streams, but the song is a hit primarily because of Tems. On the track, the Nigerian singer’s velvety vocals (a sample from her single “Higher”) are stacked on lowkey trap instrumentation. “Wait For U” should win the Grammy for Best Melodic Rap Performance because Tems really deserves it. 

Who will win: “First Class”

Not everyone is a believer in Jack Harlow’s “First Class,” but that’s not because of the song itself. It most likely has nothing to do with the track’s composition and everything to do with Jack Harlow himself. Nevertheless, “First Class” is a great song and Harlow’s performance was undeniably slick and cool on this one as he skates over a sample of Fergie’s “Glamorous.” It also helps that the Academy is a Jack Harlow supporter (he’s nominated for three awards including Best Rap Album).  —Jessica McKinney

Nominees: Trap Cake, Vol. 2 – Rauw Alejandro, Un Verano Sin Ti – Bad Bunny, Legendaddy – Daddy Yankee, La 167 – Farruko, The Love & Sex Tape – Maluma

Who will win: Un Verano Sin Ti, Bad Bunny

Who should win: Un Verano Sin Ti, Bad Bunny

This should be an easy pick. Bad Bunny’s ability to sing the pain away was showcased around the world and brought audiences from different continents and spoken tongues together to enjoy his music in a way that’s never quite been done before. Un Verano Sin Ti was easily a standout in the música urbana genre, which featured contenders such as Daddy Yankee’s retirement album Legendaddy and up-and-rising crossover star Rauw Alejandro’s Trap Cake, Vol. 2. The latter skyrocketed the artist into newfound fame and DY’s album was filled with pop hits, solidifying his place in history. Still, Bad Bunny owned 2022 with his fourth studio album and any other win just doesn’t make sense. This is one of three categories that the Puerto Rican artist is nominated in this year; he has gone home with this award the last two years. It’ll be a sight to see Benito continue to get recognized in this way. —Alejandro De Jesús

Nominees: Voyage (Abba), 30 (Adele), Un Verano Sin Ti (Bad Bunny), Renaissance (Beyoncé), Good Morning Gorgeous (Deluxe) (Mary J. Blige), In These Silent Days (Brandi Carlile), Music Of The Spheres (Coldplay), Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers (Kendrick Lamar), Special (Lizzo), Harry’s House (Harry Styles) 

Who should win: Un Verano Sin Ti, Bad Bunny

Bad Bunny’s reach is intercontinental. After the year the global Latin global star has had—which included a world tour that grossed over $435 million, touched 575,000 fans, and made people I know travel to different countries for the sole purpose of seeing him perform a second time—this seems like a fair win. Un Verano Sin Ti transcended language barriers and was spun all around the world, and its impact alone makes it worthy of the Album of the Year honors. Unfortunately, the Academy has never given a Latin album this distinction, and given the widespread appeal of Beyoncé’s album as well, it might be difficult for Bad Bunny to come away with it this year, even though he, too, deserves it. 

Who will win: Renaissance, Beyoncé

Beyoncé is poised to walk away with several trophies, continuing her reign as the woman with the most wins in Grammy history, and Album of the Year will be one of them. Renaissance felt like a cultural reset and pushed the dance genre to new mainstream heights thanks to her viral tracks like “Virgo’s Groove” and “Break My Soul,” both of which are also up for awards. The sheer star power that Bey commands, coupled with the impact Renaissance had without any visuals, makes it a tough album to beat in this category. —Jordan Rose

Nominees: “abcdefu” – Gayle, “About Damn Time” – Lizzo, “All Too Well (10 Minute Version) (The Short Film)” – Taylor Swift, “As It Was” – Harry Styles, “Bad Habit” – Steve Lacy, “Break My Soul” – Beyoncé, “Easy On Me” – Adele, “God Did” – DJ Khaled Featuring Rick Ross, Lil Wayne, Jay-Z, John Legend & Fridayy, “The Heart Part 5” – Kendrick Lamar, “Just Like That” – Bonnie Raitt

Who should win: “The Heart Part 5” – Kendrick Lamar

This is, of course, one of the most coveted and challenging categories to award every year. To place Lacy’s inescapable production on “Bad Habit” with Beyoncé’s gleeful sermon of a song on “Break My Soul” and Adele’s immaculate heart cry on “Easy On Me” in competition with one another feels like a crime, yet it’s our reality. And, in this truth, lies the fact (or, admittedly and clearly my personal opinion) that none of the aforementioned songs are the artist’s best release of neither the year nor full body of work they live on. That being said, “The Heart Part 5” was undoubtedly a triumphant return. A true single—undeniably captivating and in a space all its own within his folder of 2022 releases, including Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers. It’s the strongest standalone of this batch, and it’d be great to see a rap track take home this award (which would make it the second in history).

Who will win: “All Too Well (10 Minute Version) (The Short Film)” – Taylor Swift

But Taylor Swift is known to be an Academy favorite, and is likely to take home this award, and it’s not undeserved. In “All Too Well,” Swift eclipses her career’s ability to capture the fragility of love found, and lost, as she lingers in the act of remembering the essence of a past lover. It’s engaging, painfully detailed, and reminiscent of her foundational years in the late aughts—the bleak finale of “Love Story” if you will. This would mark Swift’s 12th Grammy in 15 years. Because sometimes a Cinderella story doesn’t need to include a man. —Ecleen Luzmila Caraballo

Nominees: ABBA (“Don’t Shut Down”), Adele (“Easy On Me”), Beyoncé (“Break My Soul”), Harry Styles (“As It Was”), Mary J. Blige (“Good Morning Gorgeous”), Brandi Carlile Featuring Lucius (“You And Me On The Rock”), Doja Cat (“Woman”), Steve Lacy (“Bad Habit”), Kendrick Lamar (“The Heart Part 5”), Lizzo (“About Damn Time”)

Who should win: “Bad Habit” – Steve Lacy

The Record of the Year is awarded to the artist who gave their best overall performance on a particular song, without regard to sales or chart position. “Bad Habit” is the second single released from Steve Lacy’s Grammy-nominated album Gemini Rights. It should win in this category because of its irresistible sound. The single is led by a funky bassline and electrifying instrumentation as Steve Lacy delivers effortless vocals about regret for a failed romance. This would be Lacy’s first win as a solo artist (he was nominated for Apollo XXI in 2020, but lost), so it would be great to see a newer artist win this one.  —Jessica McKinney

Who will win: “Break My Soul” – Beyoncé

Steve Lacy is a tough competitor, but Beyoncé is likely to end up on top, because well, she’s Beyoncé. Bey is one of the most nominated artists at the Grammys this year, along with her husband Jay-Z. The Academy also seems to be a BeyHive member, so they could throw the trophy her way. That being said, it wouldn’t go completely undeserved. “Break My Soul” was a powerful and empowering anthem that was loved by so many different groups from the Black community to the LGBTQIA community and beyond.  —Jessica McKinney

Nominees: Anitta, Omar Apollo, DOMi & JD Beck, Muni Long, Samara Joy, Latto, Måneskin, Tobe Nwigwe, Molly Tuttle, Wet Leg

Who should win: Omar Apollo

Who will win: Omar Apollo

This is, as you know, one of the most coveted awards of the night, and the never-failing mixed bags of select nominees year to year is always interesting. Seeing Apollo—who is both matured and nascent in terms of scope of potential for creative growth—in the same category as Anitta—who is the biggest musical act in her massive home country of Brazil—feels like a funny and odd layering. And then there’s Muni Long, who has a great songwriting track record and grew ever-popular last year with her track “Hrs & Hrs” and first album as a solo act, But this category needs reminding every year so I’ll drop it here: According to the Academy, to be eligible, one must be a “performing artist or established performing group who releases, during the eligibility year, the recording that first establishes the public identity of that artist.” In that sense, this is literally anybody’s game. But, Omar Apollo, too, isn’t new to this, he’s true to this. The 25-year-old singer has been growing and evolving in the pop space for years, but Ivory, his official debut as Warner’s signee, is undoubtedly his coming to (artistic) self moment. Ivory has only gotten better with time since its release in April, capturing the sweet deposition of love and showcasing the artist’s malleability. We get the feeling The Academy may see that and want to champion it, too. —Ecleen Luzmila Caraballo

Nominees: Adele (“Easy On Me”), Harry Styles (“As It Was”), Doja Cat (“Woman”), Steve Lacy (“Bad Habit”), Lizzo (“About Damn Time”), Bad Bunny (“Moscow Mule”)

Who should win: “As It Was,” Harry Styles

If you spent even a minute on TikTok last year, you’d know that Harry Styles’ “As It Was” was one of the most played songs on the app. The song appeared in fashion, DIY, and lifestyle videos. It was also popular on the radio, which helped the single nab the top spot on the Billboard 200 chart. At its core, “As It Was” is a high-tempo jubilant record that captures the spirit of pop music but also the feeling of spring and summer. It is the go-to song for an energy boost, which is why it should win Best Solo Performance. 

Who will win: “About Damn Time,” Lizzo

That being said, Lizzo is likely to take the W. “About Damn Time” was another relentless TikTok song that made its rounds. And though many fans ran it into the ground with different dance challenges, we can still appreciate how catchy and electric Lizzo’s performance was. This is admittedly a tough category, but reasons behind this being Lizzo’s award is that Harry Styles is already likely to sweep in larger categories, and that Lizzo is a Grammy’s favorite, so she is likely to leave music’s biggest night with something.  —Jessica McKinney

Nominees: Voyage (ABBA), 30 (Adele​​​​​​​), Music of the Spheres (Coldplay), Special (Lizzo), Harry’s House (Harry Styles)

Who should win: Harry’s House, Harry Styles

Who will win: Harry’s House, Harry Styles

Harry Styles is a likely shoe-in for the Best Pop Vocal Album category. Harry’s House is the English singer’s third studio album and was one of the biggest pop albums of 2022. The album debuted at No.1 in both the U.S. and UK in May, moving more than 600,000 album-equivalent units combined. It became Styles’ third number one album and was the second-largest debut of the year (behind Taylor Swift’s Midnights). Besides his commercial performance, though, Styles’ album created a vivid and imaginative world and showed his growth as both a vocalist and individual. While it does help that Styles has become a favorite amongst his peers since his departure from One Direction, this award is more than deserved. —Jessica McKinney

Nominees: Beyoncé, (“Virgo’s Groove”) Mary J. Blige ft. Anderson .Paak, (“Here With Me”) Muni Long, (“Hrs & Hrs”), Lucky Daye, (“Over”), Jazmine Sullivan, (“Hurt Me So Good”) 

Who should win: “Hurt Me So Good,” Jazmine Sullivan

There is something so warm about Jazmine Sullivan’s voice, and “Hurt Me So Good” puts the singer’s majestic vocals on full display. The Heaux Tales Deluxe cut is impressive because of how Sullivan’s voice envelopes the track and isn’t overshadowed by the beautiful instrumentation that supports the song. This is what constitutes the Best R&B Performance—the vocals first—and why Sullivan deserves to take home the award even though she doesn’t have the same reach as Beyoncé. 

Who will win: “Virgo’s Groove,” Beyoncé

A Beyoncé Grammy sweep is imminent, and Best R&B Performance is on the bill. “Virgo’s Groove” is arguably not even Bey’s best vocal performance on Renaissance, (I’d award that to “Church Girl” or “Plastic Off the Sofa”), but the song has enough mass appeal powering it to leverage another Grammy for the hive. Jazmine Sullivan still has a good chance of winning as well, but the Academy loves Beyoncé—she has won 28 Grammys—and this year she could surpass Quincy Jones to inch closer to becoming the leader with most Grammys won. —Jordan Rose

Nominees: “Cuff It” (Beyoncé), “Good Morning Gorgeous” (Mary J. Blige), “Hrs & Hrs” (Muni Long), “Hurt Me So Good” (Jazmine Sullivan), “Please Don’t Walk Away” (PJ Morton)

Who should win: “Cuff It” – Beyoncé

Who will win: “Cuff It” – Beyoncé

Beyoncé’s “Cuff It” has been used in more than 2 million videos on TikTok since it was released in July 2022. If that doesn’t demonstrate how popular the track was last year, I don’t know what will. But never mind its internet appeal. “CUFF IT” is a banger. The track, which was written by Beyoncé and her team (Nova Wav, Morten Ristorp, Raphael Saadiq and The-Dream), is a romantic and mesmerizing record that further established Queen Bey as a vocal wizard and one of the best singers of her generation. The track is also a sweet history lesson that mixes modern production with an interpolation of Teena Marie’s “Ooo La La La.” There is no other song in this category that stands out and made a splash quite like “CUFF IT.”  —Jessica McKinney

Nominees: Good Morning Gorgeous (Deluxe) (Mary J. Blige), Breezy (Deluxe) (Chris Brown), (Black Radio III) (Robert Glasper), Candydrip (Lucky Daye​​​​​​​), Watch The Sun ​​​​​​​(PJ Morton)

Who should win: Candydrip – Lucky Daye

2022 was Lucky Daye’s year, and Candydrip was one of the most cohesive and sonically lush R&B albums that the New Orleans singer has released. Despite being in the industry for a while now, it feels like Lucky is finally beginning to have his moment, and it deserves to culminate in a Grammy. He also reflects the new-aged sound of R&B and is a strong representation of why the genre is still alive and thriving. Despite these things, though, it would still be an uphill battle for him to win the award for Best R&B Album, even with Candydrip meeting the criteria.

Who will win: Black Radio III – Robert Glasper

Robert Glasper’s Black Radio III is a full R&B experience from beginning to end. The 44-year-old multi-hyphenate strung together a concise and layered record with his 2022 album, and his efforts will likely be rewarded with a Grammy. Everything from the vibrant instrumentation that brightens each track to standout features from powerhouse voices like Yebba, Jennifer Hudson, Musiq Soulchild, and more, Black Radio III feels like an easy pick for the Academy if they don’t decide to honor a legacy act like Mary J. Blige, who is also nominated. —Jordan Rose

Nominees: “Easy On Me” (Adele), “Yet To Come”(BTS), “Woman” (Doja Cat), “The Heart Part 5” (Kendrick Lamar), “As It Was” (Harry Styles), “All Too Well: The Short Film” (Taylor Swift) 

Who should win: “The Heart Part 5,” Kendrick Lamar

Half of what makes “The Heart Part 5” special is the music video. Directed by Dave Free in collaboration with South Park creators’ studio Deep Voodoo, Kendrick utilizes deep fake technology to take on the appearance of several notable Black pop cultural figures, including O.J. Simpson, Kanye West, Jussie Smollett, Will Smith, Kobe Bryant, and Nipsey Hussle. Dot’s face changes with the perspective he’s rapping from, making his bars come to life and giving the song a new layer of meaning. It was the perfect moment to herald Kendrick’s return and should win him a Grammy, if he weren’t up against Taylor Swift.

Who will win: “All Too Well: The Short Film” – Taylor Swift

Taylor Swift has built a long and successful career thanks to her ability to take traumatic romantic events and turn them into immersive musical experiences, and “All Too Well: The Short Film” is the perfect example of that. Starring Sadie Sink and Dylan O’Brien, the video follows the lives of two plagued lovers trying to make their relationship work despite their age difference. Many speculated that the story was inspired by Swift’s relationship with Jake Gyllenhaal, which he refutes. The song is so popular and the video was so well cast that it’s unlikely that Swift won’t be rewarded for her efforts with a Grammy. —Jordan Rose

Nominees: Jack Antonoff, Dan Auerbach, Boi-1da, Dahi, Dernst “D’mile” Emile II

Who should win: Boi-1da

Boi-1da was on an absolute tear in 2022, being the skillful production ear behind some of the biggest hits of the year like Kendrick Lamar’s “N95” and “Silent Hill,” Beyoncé’s “Heated,” and Jack Harlow’s “Churchill Downs,” among many others. All of these albums (Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers, Renaissance) and songs (“Churchill Downs”) are in contention for Best Album of the Year and Best Rap Song of the Year, respectively. Therefore, it only makes sense that the producer behind them get one himself. The Canadian producer only has one trophy under his belt, and that was for one of the biggest commercial hits of Drake’s career, “God’s Plan.” It’s about time he lands another one.

Who will win: Jack Antonoff

It’s hard to traverse the pop space and not run into Jack Antonoff’s name in the album credits. 2022 was an especially productive year for the 38-year-old producer, with his fingerprints all over The 1975’s Being Funny in a Foreign Language and, most notably, completely handling Taylor Swift’s Midnights. The Academy loves Taylor Swift and, by extension, loves Jack Antonoff. Not to mention the fact that he is a skilled producer who helped give two of the biggest pop albums of 2022 their sonic identity. Those stats are tough to beat, and will likely land him his eighth Grammy. —Jordan Rose