Winners & Losers: NFL Free Agency 2021

The first phase of the 2021 NFL free agency period is finished as big names flocked to sign mega deals. Months of speculation, rumors and hopes were dashed or came to fruition depending on announced transactions. Half the league was severely limited by cap constraints and we saw numerous high profile players swap teams. Still, we saw plenty of movement and a number of surprises, even with the down cap year. As the league now turns focus towards the NFL Draft, we’re taking a deeper look at how teams did in free agency.

We’re breaking down the winners and losers from Week 1 of NFL free agency. Free agency works when the player is a schematic fit and the right financial value. Some teams were better about finding that blend than others this past week.

The AFC East was as busy as any division with signings and trades. The Buffalo Bills tended to their slew of in-house free agents well by keeping their most important pieces on team-friendly deals. Miami and New England had varying degrees of success in building depth and signing a stud. But it was the New York Jets who did the best with their assets.

New head coach Robert Saleh will get the most out of his defensive additions. Pass rusher Carl Lawson has been underrated for years and will benefit from having a deep cast of tackles next to him. Defensive backs Marcus Maye and Lamarcus Joyner are versatile pieces and keep the leadership high in the secondary.

Adding receivers Corey Davis and Keelan Cole rounded out what they could do on the offense as well. A running back can still be signed or drafted, and it’s possible the Jets take two offensive linemen in the first round. That type of flexibility is thanks to filling out the roster through free agency without splurging recklessly.

The Bears had dreams of Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson and Trent Williams for a minute until everything went sideways. General manager Ryan Pace opted to pay Andy Dalton about $10 million more in 2021 than he earned in 2020 as a backup, and then signed Germain Ifedi to block him. Mediocrity continues in Chicago.

Things got worse after Pace moved defensive stalwart Kyle Fuller (and potentially Akiem Hicks) so he could keep Allen Robinson and chase Kenny Golladay. The Bears may have gotten slightly better on offense with Dalton but would be dramatically worse off without Fuller and Hicks. This roster shouldn’t be in the limited cap situation they’re in considering the quality of depth.

Meanwhile we saw Detroit overhaul their roster on the fly, and Minnesota add a couple of good veterans in Dalvin Tomlinson and Patrick Peterson. The Bears can at-best hope to be in the Wild Card chase now but an injury to Dalton would crater the staff and front office towards a reboot.

Slow-playing free agency can send a fan base into panic mode but the Cleveland Browns did well enough to be a winner despite early concerns. Cleveland was able to retain receiver Rashard Higgins for depth, and then beef up their defense. Edge-rusher Takkarist McKinley, cornerback Troy Hill and safety John Johnson III fill three massive needs at reasonable costs for each.

Johnson and Hill were especially great values considering the need for both positions across the league. Cleveland enters the second wave of free agency and the draft with the ability to look for the best player available. Adding to the defensive front with either an edge-rusher or tackle makes perfect sense.

The lone loss for Cleveland was Larry Ogunjobi, who defected to Cincinnati. But Cleveland will take solace looking at how the Bengals signed lesser external free agents (Trey Hendrickson and Chidobe Awuzie) than the guys they had in house (Lawson and William Jackson). Pittsburgh retained JuJu Smith-Schuster and Baltimore added Kevin Zeitler, but the Browns shouldn’t be scared of any of their competition next season.

The Houston Texans were massive losers in the first week of free agency thanks to questionable signings across the roster. It was shocking to see any team rushing to ink borderline NFL talent like Houston did.

Instead of acquiring difference-makers, getting an old running back in Mark Ingram and fliers like Andre Roberts, Donte Moncrief and Pharaoh Brown fail to move the needle. The defense might see a small bump if their slew of one-year signings have career years but there’s too many ifs. This roster is destined for a top-five pick in 2022 even if Deshaun Watson plays for the franchise.

With little cap flexibility and draft assets for 2021, the Texans look rudderless even under a new set of decision-makers in place. They’re the single biggest loser of the offseason thus far.

Without the ability to get a more impactful quarterback or trade into the top-10 for a stud rookie, the Washington Football Team did as well as they could’ve. Landing veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t guarantee anything but entertainment but he’ll upgrade a dreadful quarterback room. More important for the long-term health of the franchise was landing both Curtis Samuel and William Jackson III to three-year deals and retaining Brandon Scherff.

Washington needed impactful talent and paid a fair price for both Samuel and Jackson. Samuel’s familiarity with Ron Rivera in Carolina will help his transition, and now Fitzpatrick has several legitimate weapons to work with. We should see more explosive plays in 2021 each week simply thanks to the increase in speed.

Jackson is also an upgrade on departed cornerback Ronald Darby. His consistent man coverage comes from great instincts and study habits. He’ll prove to be one of the best values of free agency if his turnover numbers increase.

There was hope we’d see a ton of veteran quarterbacks swapping jerseys throughout free agency but the dominos never continued to fall after Carson Wentz was dealt. Dreams of Matt Ryan to San Francisco, Deshaun Watson to New York, and Russell Wilson to Chicago all failed well short of reality. Bold proclamations we’d see half the league change signal callers look absolutely ridiculous in hindsight.

Cap limitations were hard enough to overcome, let alone the intricacies that come with massive contracts at the position. It’s not easy making trades with players with $30 million cap hits or more. The cap can be manipulated, as we’ve seen with the prevalence of voidable years this offseason, but is still a deterrent to certain deals.

The biggest moves post Matthew Stafford and Wentz featured Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andy Dalton going to new teams. Both should be nice upgrades but fail to be headlining moves beyond 2021, and are more likely to be footnotes in history than franchise-changing and job-saving moves.

The Buccaneers won from their own moves and the lack of quality NFC South decisions. Re-signing Shaquil Barrett to less than what most had projected is a big win, especially since other pass-rushers cashed in beyond their assumed value. Keeping Rob Gronkowski was a minor but nice depth move as well.

The structure of the deals will allow the Buccaneers to continue rounding out what’s already a great roster. Ring-chasing veterans will be more incentivized to take less in this strange off-season where less money is available than usual anyway, and the Bucs are in prime position to offer a role at certain positions.

The Saints were obviously not going to do much with their unfathomable cap situation, but avoid being a loser after retaining Jameis Winston and Marcus Williams. Carolina added journeymen blockers and Haason Reddick, which is a disappointing haul after dreams of Watson. The Falcons further committed to Matt Ryan by restructuring his deal and have done absolutely nothing.

The Buccaneers should easily win the division in 2021 thanks to the struggles around them.