Predictions for Game 7 of Bucks-Nets

Given that the Nets are missing one-third of their Big Three, and another third is severely compromised, I think we can all agree it ain’t surprising that the odds-on-favorite to win the NBA title has been stretched to a seventh game in the Eastern Conference semis.

Brooklyn is seriously in danger of getting bounced way earlier than the overwhelming majority of NBA fans would have predicted before the playoffs began for a few reasons, notably injuries to Kyrie Irving (out for Game 7) and James Harden (not even close to 100 percent with a balky hamstring). But the Bucks, despite their egregious effort in the second half of Game 5, deserve credit for taking care of business in Game 6 and forcing a glorious winner-take-all scenario Saturday night at Barclays Center. With the stakes so high, coaches and players on both sides will try to downplay the pressure. Good luck with that.

“It’s a basketball game. It’s as simple as that,” Bucks forward Khris Middleton said following Game 6. “I know it’s lose-or-go-home, but at the same time, it’s just basketball. You’ve got to have fun with it. Those moments are fun, you know, when the game’s on the line.”

So what, precisely, should we expect to see go down in Brooklyn? Honestly, who the hell knows? Making predictions often makes you look foolish, but it kind of comes with the territory in sports so here are four things we feel pretty confident proclaiming less than 24 hours before Game 7 tips with a bold prediction attached at the bottom.

Kevin Durant is averaging 33.3 PPG in the series and shooting 50.3 percent from the field. He’s been awesome. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 30.5 PPG and connecting on 56.5 percent of his attempts. He’s been pretty damn good, too. That is, other than bricking almost 54 percent of his free throw attempts.

This is not exactly a bold prediction, I know, but I point out the most obvious offensive numbers of this series’ two biggest stars to quickly remind everyone that KD and the Greek Freak will almost assuredly get theirs and have their squads in position come the fourth quarter to advance. The big question is what will complementary players like Khris Middleton and James Harden (he’s complementary in this scenario because of that suspect hamstring) add?

Does Middleton go off as he did in Game 6 and connect on 11-of-16 attempts from the field? His stat line Thursday—38, 10, and 5—hadn’t been duplicated in the postseason since Patrick Ewing did it in 1990. As good as Middleton is, that’s probably asking too much. Can we expect Harden to go for 25? That’s also probably asking too much of the Beard, too. But Brooklyn’s absolutely going to need a significant amount of points from its point guard and maybe he shifts to a higher gear—hammy be damned—for the sake of Game 7. Listen, this easily could be Harden’s best opportunity to win a title. He may have to get a little reckless Saturday night to make it happen. We’ll predict he does.

Durant deserves all the praise for his performance in Game 5—a career-defining one that won’t soon be forgotten—but major props were due to Jeff Green for scoring 27 points, hitting 7-of-8 attempts from three. If he could have somehow replicated those numbers Thursday night maybe we don’t see a Game 7.

But Uncle Jeff only mustered 5 points and missed 7-of-9 shots from the field in Game 6 and Joe Harris continued to be an afterthought. He has to hit some shots. Green has to provide another spark. Chances are both will make some sort of difference in Game 7 because role players always play better at home—regular season and most especially the playoffs. The real key easily could be Harris actually hitting something other than the back of the rim. He’s a brutal 13-of-40 from deep in the series. That equals a league-average 35.5 percent from beyond the arc. But when you finished tops in the NBA during the regular season (connecting on 47.5 of his threes), you gotta be better when it really counts.

I’m aware I’m not particularly going out on a limb with this one, either, but there’s absolutely no reason why the Bucks shouldn’t blister Brooklyn down low again. Antetokounmpo was terrific driving the lane in Game 6 and didn’t do too many of those egregious kick outs to the 3-point line as we saw from him in Game 5. Brooklyn featured a big lineup in Game 6—well, for them at least—but was brutalized on the boards (-11) and on the other end of the floor the Bucks had six blocks. Milwaukee’s 20 points off of 16 Brooklyn turnovers obviously helped pad their points in the paint Thursday, but there’s absolutely no reason why the Bucks, and Antetokounmpo most especially, shouldn’t attack the basket poessession after possession or contest the majority of Brooklyn’s attempt near the rim.

I guess you have to admire somebody who is often so god damn stubborn, right? Or you can easily ridicule them. Whatever side of the coin you fall on it will be interesting to see if the maligned Mike Budenholzer has the temerity to switch up strategies should things start to go awry in the second half. That’s never really been his MO—although Milwaukee did successfully experiment with defensive strategy switches during the regular season in preparation for the postseason. More specifically, will Bundeholzer allow his squad—rightfully mocked this series for too many terrible decisions—to continually settle for shots when their offensive advantage lies in attacking the basket? Will he put Antetokounmpo, the two-time Defensive Player of the Year, on KD way more than we’ve seen since it’s, you know, Game 7? Will his future with the franchise, which many assume is at stake in this game, weigh on his decisions making? Maybe that last question is taking things a little too far, but if you know how Budenholzer operates he’s proven to be more about going down with the ship rather than trying to save it mid-voyage.

Bucks. Is that bold enough? I like to swerve and go against the grain, maybe to a fault when it comes to predictions like this, but I’m not scared to pick Milwaukee to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for a few reasons. Even after that epic collapse in Game 5 in which the Bucks completely abandoned all the things that worked so well for them as they built up a huge lead, I was still ready to argue it’s Milwaukee’s series to lose. They’re the deeper team, they’re the more cohesive team, they’re superior defensively, they have the size advantage, and it’s not like they’re the new kids on the block, scared of the mighty Nets. Especially since Brooklyn’s sans its most creative scorer.

Do all the minutes the delicate Durant has racked up in this series—he’s averaging 41.0 MPG, up significantly from the regular season and the Boston series—catch up to him? Can Harden’s old-man game hold up under the crucible of a Game 7? While Nets coach Steve Nash has a damn good roster of assistants—most especially Mike D’Antoni—to lean on, does he press the wrong buttons in his first do-or-die game running a team with massive expectations placed upon it?

As long as Budenholzer doesn’t stubbornly stick to his guns should things start to go awry in the second half and as long as Antetokounmpo doesn’t brick a ton of free throws—big ifs, I’m well aware—after he regularly attacks the basket, I’m completely comfortable rolling with Milwaukee here. Even if the home team has won every game in the series.