FOXBOROUGH, MA - JANUARY 03: Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots looks on during a game against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium on January 3, 2021 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
The 2021 NFL free agency period began Monday as the legal tampering window opened. Signings trickled in as soon as noon struck and bigger names came off the board later in the day. There was a hint of desperation with some signings but others made sense immediately.
We’re breaking down the winners and losers from Day 1 of NFL free agency. Free agency works when the player is a schematic fit and the right financial value. Some teams were better about finding that blend than others Monday.
We’ll continue to analyze signings throughout free agency, so check back often for the latest buzz.
Winner: The Chiefs and Buccaneers
The rich were able to get richer on Day 1. The Chiefs cleared out millions via restructures and cuts, lurking as suitors for a major free agent. Top free-agent guard Joe Thuney agreed to a massive five-year, $80 million deal with the Chiefs and solidified part of a revamped unit.
Thuney and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif are enormous individual upgrades for the interior line. Patrick Mahomes will enjoy two great pass blockers, and athletic run blockers between the two. It’s possible they could sign former Bears lineman Kyle Long as well and have most of the unit figured out just days after losing three starters.
The Buccaneers are also Day 1 winners. Re-signing Shaquil Barrett to less than what most had projected is a big win, especially since other pass-rushers cashed in beyond their assumed value. Keeping Rob Gronkowski was a minor but nice depth move as well.
The structure of the deals will allow the Buccaneers to continue rounding out what’s already a great roster. Ring-chasing veterans will be more incentivized to take less in this strange off-season where less money is available than usual anyway, and the Bucs are in prime position to offer a role at certain positions.
Loser: The Patriot Way
Bill Belichick missed the playoffs in 2020 and that’s all he needed to see to change his tendencies. The Patriots spent just under $360 million in the 10 free agency periods prior to this one. On Monday, the Patriots agreed to about $223 million to eight players.
The Patriots had the money to spend but opted to acquire mostly mediocre players coming off their best year for the top of their potential value. Guys like Kendrick Bourne, Deatrich Wise Jr., Davon Godchaux, Henry Anderson, and Jalen Mills fail to really move the needle. A similar caliber player could’ve been signed for close to league minimum in a later wave of free agency.
Class-headers Matt Judon, Nelson Aguilar and Jonnu Smith are certainly more helpful. Judon is a good but not great pass rusher signed for a whopping $32 million over the first two years. Aguilar is a speedy deep threat but was second in the league in drop rate last year, so his rollercoaster experience will be frustrating for another franchise.
Signing quality over quantity made more sense. Swapping out depth pieces like Bourne, Godchaux and Mills for Kenny Golladay would’ve been a considerably better use of assets. The Patriots are barely a better playoff contender today despite the spending.
Winner: EDGE Rushers
Pass-rushers were paid handsomely on Day 1. Barrett ($17 million per year), Dupree ($16.5 million), Trey Hendrickson ( $15 million), Judon ($16 million), Carl Lawson ($15 million), Leonard Floyd ($16 million), Yannick Ngakoue ($13 million), and Romeo Okwara ($13 million) took huge advantage of the need across the league. There was clearly desperation with a limited market and fairly weak draft class at the position.
Several of these players benefited from being the second-best pass-rusher on their team but accumulated eye-popping stats. It’s hard to see the Dupree, Hendrickson, and Floyd deals looking good in two years based on how their production was often schemed. Lawson, Ngakoue and Okwara went to advantageous situations to maximize their effectiveness, and were also three of the best per-year prices on the list.
The structure of these deals is always important and hopefully most of these deals can be adjusted in the future to help alleviate the coming cap strain for a good but not elite player. In particular, it’s fair to wonder whether the Rams should’ve paid John Johnson instead of Floyd, and if the Titans had a better player in Corey Davis over Dupree.
Loser: Wide Receivers
The lone big-ticket receiver to sign a deal Monday was Corey Davis. The Jets did well to get him under $15 million a year (and to get Lawson as well), but the rest of the market was quiet. Some of this is due to a deep receiving draft class but also the interested teams aren’t overly interesting to the players.
It’s hard to sell questionable quarterback situations like what the Jets, Patriots and Washington have. The Colts have played it cool, and Miami has been more of a lurker early on. There’s buzz that Miami would love to land Golladay and Jacksonville wants Curtis Samuel but to this point their price has been an issue.
These receivers must be smart in picking their next destination. Betting on the wrong quarterback or offensive system can be devastating to value, and it’s clear there’s skepticism on the situations most available right now.
Winner: Justin Herbert
The Los Angeles Chargers made three shrewd signings on opening day. Two will directly benefit an offense that already features star talent at playmaking positions. Landing All-Pro center Corey Linsley and former right tackle and left guard Matt Feiler immediately bolster Justin Herbert’s protection.
New head coach Brandon Staley immediately addressed two of the eyesores on the roster. Linsley will be an upgrade at Mike Pouncey’s former spot, and Feiler can stop the revolving door at left guard. Acquiring a legitimate right guard and seeing improvement from left tackle Trey Pipkins means this unit would take a massive leap from 2020.
Re-signing cornerback Michael Davis to a team-friendly three-year deal was another great decision. The defense has one of the better starting lineups in the league, but losing Davis would’ve been big after cutting star Casey Hayward. Adding one more edge-rusher will complete the unit.
The Chargers will be one of the better rosters in the league in 2021 at this rate. Adding depth across it is key but they have plenty of assets to continue this pace.
Loser: The AFC South
There were just two clearly good signings in the entirety of the AFC South on Day 1 and both were defensive linemen. The Tennessee Titans stole Denico Autry from the Colts for a modest three-year deal, and the Jaguars landed Roy Robertson-Harris from the Bears. Most other announced deals were inconsequential.
The Texans were at the epicenter of this. They announced eight signings total, and not one moves the needle in a meaningful way. Quarterback Deshaun Watson has no incentive to feel more confident in this franchise than he did a week ago. Spending on a star on either side of the ball would’ve been more valuable.
The Jaguars added depth pieces across the roster, and keeping Dawuane Smoot was a solid decision for his price. But there were expectations they’d come out spending on a couple of big pieces and so far that’s not been the case. Missing on John Johnson hurt as he fled to Cleveland instead.
Tennessee overspent on the Browns’ former fourth tackle in Kendall Lamm, and then blew away competition for Bud Dupree. The Titans were clearly frustrated by the lack of return from free-agent signees on the edge the last two years, but giving a complimentary pass-rusher coming off a knee injury who relies on athleticism to win a big deal is hard to justify. Dupree at $16.5 million per-year is already an eyesore contract.
And then the Colts decided to do nothing. Chris Ballard has done a nice job with this roster to this point but the time to spend is now. Sitting out the first wave of free agency simply wastes the opportunity to add needed impact players.
