The Oklahoma City Thunder are playing their best basketball of the 2015-16 season. They're finally playing the type of ball we knew they could play. They've won four straight playoff games, eliminating the San Antonio Spurs and handing the Golden State Warriors their first home playoff losses of the year. But let's not get too carried away. We mustn't forget the inconsistencies that have plagued them, and continue to plague them. For one thing, Oklahoma City loves to turn the ball over. So far, in 12 postseason games, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant have 95 turnovers between them; that averages out to about eight a game. They had 10 in the first half of Game 1 Monday night, and somehow only committed one in the second half.
Turnovers have been a thorn in their side all season. They've averaged nearly 14 per game in the playoffs (down from 15 per in the regular season) but have been able to keep themselves in games due to their dominance on the glass; OKC were No. 1 on the boards during the season and have continued that trend in the playoffs.
One trend that hasn't continued in the playoffs is the Thunder's habit of blowing fourth-quarter leads. During the regular season Oklahoma City were one of the worst teams in the fourth quarter, if not the worst. In the four games Golden State and OKC played this year, the Thunder held the lead in each, yet are only 1-3 against the Warriors. Shit, they almost blew a 30-point lead in the close-out game versus the Spurs. Billy Donovan and company have apparently managed to right to ship just in time.
Can the Thunder beat the Warriors? In theory they can. They have two of the top five players in the league, and are acting like they've been here before because they have (Russ and KD have played in four Western Conference Finals in eight years). They've also been living up to their potential in these playoffs. Oklahoma City isn't the same team Golden State swept during the season. This version of the Thunder doesn't blow fourth-quarter leads, this version of the Thunder plays together. In Game 1, the Thunder beat the Warriors at the line by 11, and on the glass by eight. Also, the Warriors shooting was erratic and they gave the ball away 14 times, giving up 17 points in the process. Golden State gave that game away. Or better yet, the Thunder stole it.
The Thunder are fool's gold unless, by some miracle, they keep their turnovers under 12 a game and keep the Warriors shooting under 40 percent from three. If you believe Oklahoma City can make these things happen for three more games, I have a bridge in Brooklyn for sale. I know we all would like to see giants fall, and Golden State's run on top has just begun, but we're talking about the defending champs who are coming off a historic 73-win season. Steph Curry just getting back into shape after missing three weeks of playoff action due to injury has to be taken into consideration as well. Also, OKC isn't deep enough; Enes Kanter is the only real threat they have while Golden State has 2015 Finals MVP Andre Iguodala, Marreese Speights, Festus Ezeli, and Shaun Livingston all giving them quality minutes. The smart money is still on the Warriors.
The Thunder are fool's gold unless, by some miracle, they keep their turnovers under 12 a game and keep the Warriors shooting under 40 percent from three.
At the beginning of the season, I picked the Thunder to win it all because I want KD and Russ to stay together, but then Golden State went on that amazing run at the start of the season while Oklahoma City thrashed around uselessly at the end of games all year like a fish out of water. I will not be entranced by their sorcery. They are who we thought they were to quote the great Dennis Green. Buyer beware.
The positive takeaway is Russ and KD have finally figured it out and we may be getting a seven-game series. Both are able to contribute in other ways when their shots aren't falling at a consistent clip, and they rarely confront each other on court.
But they won't beat the Warriors. let alone win it all. The best-case scenario is Durant signing a two-year deal this summer with a player option for the second year, so at least he and Russ can see where they stand when it's Westbrook's turn to be courted during free agency next summer. The cap will keep rising, so this will be the smart play for KD. Why leave a quality franchise for somewhere like Washington or the Knicks? Stay in OKC with Russ and try to finally win a championship. For now, though, hold this L and learn how to play like a well-oiled machine from Golden State. The crown will remain in Oakland. Don't believe the hype.
