NBA Free Agency Winners and Losers

I like to call the lead up to NBA free agency basketball’s silly season because all the rumors and reporting via sources from everybody and anybody who’s ever written a word or two about professional basketball makes your head spin.

But if I think that’s silly, what should I call the suspect strategy New Orleans is trying to orchestrate while its precious time with Zion Williamson dwindles? Or what the Lakers…well, you’ll see below.

While teams can’t officially announce the signings and additions they’ve made until Friday, we all know who has defected to a new team or re-upped with their old squad. We have a pretty good idea of which teams elevated themselves in their respective conference or left us scratching our head with puzzling commitments of major dollars to players that might not make much of a difference. And that means after we graded all the major signings the past three days, it’s time to determine early winners and losers of NBA free agency.

Some winners, I’d like to think, are obvious and extremely un-controversial. Some losers highlighted here, like my assessment of the maneuverings of the NBA’s most glamorous franchise, will likely not be well received by a significant portion of our audience, even if I did my best to lay out why I’m skeptical. So don’t crucify me Lakers fans for hating on what your front office did this week as you continue to hype the makeover. At least your rivals in the West—other than maybe the Warriors since Klay Thompson is returning—didn’t drastically improve their rosters.

Winner: Heat

Let the debate about whether Miami is a top 3 team in the Eastern Conference begin. I can make the case after they upgraded at point guard by adding Kyle Lowry, despite the fact he’s 35. Lowry will move the ball, knock down threes, compete defensively, and hasn’t shown too much wear and tear despite all the years he’s been in the league. Dollar amount aside (three years, $90 million) I’m not sure why anybody doesn’t like addition. Miami also retained the defensive liability that is Duncan Robinson, albeit for an astronomical $90 million over five years. But, hey, deadly 3-point shooting costs money these days and, statistically speaking, he’s almost as deadly as Steph Curry launching from beyond the arc. Stealing PJ Tucker for the mid-level exception away from the Bucks was sinister on Pat Riley’s part. They needed a versatile forward like Tucker. While we can debate whether or not Jimmy Butler’s max extension is going to age worse than a cheap bottle of red the wine aficionado would never be caught dead drinking, the Heat have drastically improved last season’s roster that flamed out in four games in the first-round vs. Milwaukee.

Loser: Lakers

🚨🚨Extremely unpopular opinion alert🚨🚨. This will get me crucified and my mentions may end up being a mess, but I’m here for it. I wasn’t a fan of what the Lakers did and, therefore, they get classified as losers for our purposes. Allow me to explain.

Sure, there were some nice pieces added—like Wayne Ellington for his superb 3-point shooting and Carmelo Anthony for scoring punch off the bench—given the crazy salary cap restrictions general manager Rob Pelinka had to deal with following LA’s trade for Russell Westbrook. But the Lakers significantly downgraded defensively on the perimeter and are now one of the NBA’s oldest teams. The average age of their (arguably) top nine players is an astounding 33.8. Four players on the roster are over 35. Six players signed are 32 years old and up. Old and defensively diminished ain’t a good combination.

The names LA brought in are notable and many are already extremely familiar to Lakers fans as LA essentially opted for quantity over quality with their signings. But I worry about the roster breaking down and whether Los Angeles really has enough reliable shooting to take advantage of what Westbrook and LeBron James do best. Lakers fans will say they do, mentioning Kent Bazemore and Malik Monk shot above 40 percent from three along with Ellington and Anthony. I’ll also buy these moves make LA a better regular season team and it’s tough to argue against the Lakers improving their overall guard play, but let’s see these guys do it during the crucible of a playoff run. Most especially, I wasn’t a fan of the Westbrook trade before free agency began. He’s a future Hall of Famer, but also a liability in a lot of ways come playoff time and maybe the Lakers would have been better off trading some of the assets it used to get Westbrook for Buddy Hield instead. Finally, how did LA not put up a bigger fight to keep its own free agent, Alex Caruso? He’s precisely what the Lakers need, but Caruso’s camp reportedly went back to the Lakers after the Bulls presented their best offer and he was basically told it’s been real.

Lakers supporters and NBA fans can clown on me all they want for hating on this assemblage of talent. If I end up being dead wrong, don’t hesitate to remind me. But FYI: some, but not all, of those around the game and whose basketball knowledge I really respect also expressed skepticism about LA’s new roster makeup when I asked for their opinion. So I’m sticking to my guns. Continuity counts in basketball and the Lakers will have their work cut out for them to make this entirely new group hum. They’ll need a lot luck, too, hoping all the old guys don’t break down before the playoffs. While I know LA will be the favorites to win it all, I wouldn’t bet on them with your money.

Winner: Nets

I’m sure they’ll miss Jeff Green who defected to the Nuggets, but signing James Johnson and retaining Blake Griffin, who carved out a nice niche during his brief stint with Brooklyn, on one-year deals should cover it. Bruce Brown, a valuable reserve guard, was also retained. But most impressively the Nets managed to snag Patty Mills for two years and $12 million and, reportedly, keep him from signing with some other contenders. The former San Antonio point guard will serve as an excellent backup to James Harden and insurance when Kyrie Irving inevitably misses a bunch of games.

Loser: Pelicans

Losing Lonzo Ball was expected, but what the hell was New Orleans doing giving up a first-round pick to sign restricted free agent Devonte’ Graham away from Charlotte? Graham’s good enough, but it’s not like he’s a defender or a knockdown 3-point shooter (Brandon Ingram shoots a higher percentage from deep than Graham) and New Orleans is now paying him $47 million over four years. You can easily make the case that the future first-round selection (lottery protected) it sent over to the Hornets could end up being more valuable than Graham. The return on trading Ball wasn’t exactly robust, either. The Zion Williamson exit from New Orleans clock ticks louder and louder.

Winner: Bulls

Chicago still comes out a winner despite that surprising (and head scratching) DeMar DeRozan sign-and-trade with San Antonio. They paid a lot of money for a guy they didn’t need—but clearly can find a way to use—and gave up some valuable assets to the Spurs in order to do it. DeRozan wasn’t heavily linked to the Bulls leading up to free agency and the fit feels a little weird, but he’s still a legit mid-range scorer and give credit to the front office for the bold move at the expense of future draft capital and maneuverability. Adding their top target in Lonzo Ball via sign-and-trade with New Orleans was as excellent as it was necessary. Luring Alex Caruso away from the Lakers to be one of the top options off the bench was outstanding. Bottom line: these moves made Chicago a playoff team in the East and it might just convince Zach LaVine to sign a massive extension and stick around the Windy City. If that happens, then the Bulls truly did a helluva job.

Winner: Extension Guys

Kudos to Steph Curry (four years, $215 million), Trae Young (five years, $207 million), the aforementioned Butler (four years, $182 million), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (five years, $172 million) for inking huge extensions. The numbers are mind-boggling, but if you didn’t already know basketball is big business and if you can morph yourself into a perennial All-Star you’re going to accumulate Justin Bieber levels of bread. So stop reading the interwebs and go work on that jump shot. The list of stars eligible for either a veteran or rookie extension this summer is extensive: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Luka Doncic, LaVine, Devin Booker, Karl Anthony-Towns, Bradley Beal, Deandre Ayton, and Michael Porter Jr., to name just a few.

Loser: Andre Drummond & Dennis Schröder

The former Lakers (it appears all but certain Dennis Schröder will not re-sign with LA at this point) gambled on themselves this past season and it will not pay off. Schröder reportedly turned down an $84 million extension offer from the Lakers thinking he could get more on the open market if he helped lead LA on a deep playoff run. That didn’t happen and now the landing spots for the point guard to earn big dollars have practically dried up. As for Andre Drummond, he signed a one-year deal to backup Joel Embiid, the guy who bragged about living rent free in his head when they would battle under the basket back during Drummond’s days in Detroit. Like Schröder, Drummond hoped his time in LA, after he was bought out by Cleveland this past winter, would prove he’s a dynamic center and earn him big dollars in free agency. The riches Schröder and Drummond envisioned only a few months ago are, sadly for them, nowhere to be found.

Winner: Knicks

The Knickerbockers were originally going to be losers for this exercise. But then they went out and signed Kemba Walker Wednesday (reportedly for $8 million) after he worked a buyout with the Thunder. That solidifies New York’s starting point guard position (a massive need heading into next season) and takes some heat off the front office after a perplexing draft and a few suspect signings in free agency. Overall, it feels like New York made solid improvements despite having the most money to work with (roughly $50 million) when free agency tipped. I don’t mind bringing back Derrick Rose and Alec Burks on deals that weren’t ridiculous. They were valuable role players as the Knicks made an unexpected run to the playoffs. Paying Nerlens Noel $32 million over three years when you have Mitchell Robinson making exponentially less and with a higher upside certainly was interesting. Then they handed Evan Fournier $78 million over four years (team option for the fourth). Sure, Fournier will help lift some of the scoring burden off of Julius Randle and that was absolutely a need. And, yeah, the Knicks had to spend the money on someone. This isn’t baseball, there’s a cap floor so it’s not like the Knicks could just sit on roughly $20 million and punt it to next summer. But I can easily make a case that money would’ve been better spent on other targets. Overall, three good signings (Walker, Rose, and Burks) outweigh the mehs (Fournier and Noel). The Knicks can easily be a playoff team again next season.