2021 NFL Mock Draft: Predicting Round 1 of the NFL Draft (V3)

Jan 1, 2021; New Orleans, LA, USA; Clemson Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney embraces quarterback Justin Fields (1) after defeating the Clemson Tigers during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

2020 Stats: 3,153 YD, 24 TD, 5 INT

The phrase “best prospect since Andrew Luck” has been tired for a while, but stylistically, Lawrence is reminiscent of Luck. He’s massive, athletic, has a huge arm with very good accuracy, and is a smart player. He looks for chunk plays effectively and routinely challenges tight passing windows.

The Jaguars aren’t as bad off as most top-picking teams in terms of roster quality. A new staff, under Urban Meyer, is coming in, but they can build around some solid young players on both sides of the ball. Enter Lawrence on an offense with James Robinson and DJ Chark and it’s reasonable to expect a jump in 2021. 

2020 Stats: 2,100 YD, 22 TD, 6 INT

The Jets have been taking calls for Sam Darnold for good reason. New coach Robert Saleh doesn’t want to be picking this high ever again, and this quarterback class is special. He’ll have his pick between either Ohio State’s Fields and BYU’s Zach Wilson.

Fields would be the top quarterback in most classes. He’s extremely athletic and smart, with a plus arm and great accuracy. Wilson is the hot name and is worthy of the pick too, but Fields earns the nod for being the better player in structure. 

2020 Heisman Trophy Winner

The Dolphins will certainly take calls to trade down here since a quarterback will be available, and teams may be worried about Atlanta taking one. Regardless of where they pick, Miami will almost surely take a playmaker for Tua Tagovailoa. Picking between Smith, Ja’Marr Chase and even Jaylen Waddle isn’t an easy decision because each has their significant positives. 

Smith is terrific at tracking balls mid-air and creating after the catch. His body type is uncommon, and his biggest fans will point towards Marvin Harrison and Isaac Bruce as comparables. I see a lot of Calvin Ridley, and even he’d be a huge addition to this offense. 

Sat Out 2020 Season

Atlanta may look at this as an opportunity to get their quarterback of the future, but new coach Arthur Smith can use more help than someone who will sit for two years. Matt Ryan won’t be traded this offseason, so we have to look where else this team can use a boost. That’s an edge player or cornerback. 

Enter an impact defender like Parsons, and Atlanta can be more versatile moving forward than what we saw under Dan Quinn. Parsons can play all linebacker positions or be an edge defender thanks to his elite athleticism and build. He’s fascinating, and many evaluators think he’ll be a Rookie Defensive Player of the Year candidate anywhere he lands. 

Sat Out 2020 Season

The Bengals have their franchise quarterback but they have to keep him healthy. Burrow was hit 79 times, and sacked 47 times in his 10 games.

That leads us to Sewell. The athletic tackle is excellent and pairing him with 2020 first-rounder Jonah Williams would give Burrow a bookend to build around for the next decade. Some may prefer a tackle with more length, but Sewell has earned his projection as an excellent pass-protector and high-impact run blocker.

Missing out on Sewell and taking a big-time pass rusher or cornerback wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. This is a great tackle draft and those positions are just as valuable for a bad team like this.

2020 Stats: 3,692 YDs, 33 TDs, 3 INTs

We wrote a month ago that the Eagles could get off Carson Wentz’s deal easily if they wanted to, and now it’s a matter of time until he’s elsewhere. The Eagles need a fresh start and if they don’t think that Jalen Hurts is the answer, it makes sense to leverage whatever they can to get their franchise guy. Don’t be surprised if they trade Wentz and repackage that pick to move up to No. 3 for their quarterback.

Wilson is who fell here but it could be Justin Fields depending on who the Jets prefer. He’s a strong-armed, athletic, has moxy and playmaking ability. He has to play within structure better and become more accurate on short passes through mechanical adjustments but the upside is high. 

Sat Out 2020 Season

The Lions were able to land a ton for Matthew Stafford, a veteran who couldn’t help this team overcome the hump and be a consistent winner. Jared Goff is also limited, but really good when kept clean from pressure. This allows the Lions to play the value game with this pick.

There’s not a great edge-rusher in this range, so that leaves taking a right tackle or wide receiver. Both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones could be departing this offseason so the Lions should naturally add a receiver.

Landing Ja’Marr Chase here would be a great pick. Chase is a tremendous deep threat and is excellent creating after the catch. He has a claim as the top receiver in this class, and should develop quickly in this offense with Goff.

The Panthers made a big play for Stafford, including this pick and Teddy Bridgewater for the veteran. That leaves them looking at Wentz or praying for Deshaun Watson. Neither appears likely right now.

Bridgewater is a great quarterback to have in place while preparing the raw but super talented Trey Lance. Or the Panthers can raffle him off to Indianapolis or Washington if they choose, and have Lance compete with a lesser veteran in hopes of helping him long-term. 

There’s a lot of big-time players on the board if the Panthers decide to focus elsewhere. This is one of the major pivot points of the class. 

2020 Stats: 8 SACK, 21 SOLO, 1 INT

Denver has a number of issues to address this off-season. They missed on Stafford and are clearly needing competition for Drew Lock. They could chase after Carson Wentz or kick the tires on Jameis or Teddy. Either way, the Broncos will enter the draft with a veteran onboard and try to address their defensive needs.

Cornerback would make sense but they may restructure AJ Bouye and buy time on when they need to take a cornerback. Getting another edge rusher is the next priority, especially since Von Miller is getting older and Bradley Chubb needs to stay healthy. This is a good class for it.

Miami’s Jaelan Phillips broke out for the Hurricanes this past year after being an elite recruit for UCLA a few years ago. He’s versatile enough for Vic Fangio to love him and get the most out of him in Year 1.

2020 Stats: 1 INT, 12 PD

The Cowboys made a huge mistake when they let Byron Jones walk last offseason. The cornerbacks left on the roster are all replaceable, and have contributed to why Dallas was such a disappointment this season. They have tough decisions to make on how to proceed forward with this staff, Dak Prescott’s contract situation, and how to manage an expensive roster after wasting a year.

Adding an impact cornerback is tough to do, and the last time Dallas picked in the top 10, they could’ve had Jalen Ramsey instead of Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is a good back, but clearly they made the wrong decision. They can somewhat rectify their need for secondary help by adding Surtain.

Surtain is adept in both man and zone, and adds needed length and playmaking to this unit. 

2020 Stats: 2 SACK, 12 SOLO

The Giants could look a number of ways with the 11th overall pick, but they should continue to focus on areas that won them their last Super Bowl. There’s some solid playmakers on the offense and if Daniel Jones is the guy at quarterback, he’ll make what’s mostly there already work. This defense needs more impactful talent, though.

A hot, rising name is Paye. Paye is twitched up and huge, projecting like the next Ezekial Ansah. The Giants absolutely need a force edge defender who can help every level of their defense. If they can retain Leonard Williams, this becomes a truly feared unit.

Other options include receiver, an offensive lineman depending on what the plan with Nate Solder is, and a cornerback. They’ve invested recently into some of those spots already so going with an edge becomes even more obvious. 

Sat Out 2020 Season

The 49ers are one of the other teams that would love to upgrade at quarterback but seem unlikely to do so. Jimmy Garoppolo is good enough to win with if he’s healthy but he needs a lot of help around him. Rebuilding this defense to become an elite unit will go a long way in accomplishing that. 

Both starting cornerbacks are free agents and it’s hard to see the team investing into to-be 33-year-old Richard Sherman, or 30-year-old Jason Verrett at a higher cap number. Allowing Emmanuel Moseley and a rookie to battle for at least one starting job makes more sense for this team to stay flexible cap-wise.

Farley is a steal at this point. He’s big, fast and physical. His upside is as high as any defender in the class. 

Size: 6’3”, 305 LB

One of the surprising hires of this cycle was Los Angeles going with Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley over Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. Staley has been fantastic for the Rams and will be excellent for this defense, but the pressure is on him to build around Justin Herbert. He’d be fortunate in this scenario.

The Chargers need to protect Herbert as best as they can, and the best value here is Rashawn Slater. The athletic left tackle has excellent traits and technique already. He could even leap over Sewell thanks to his ideal build.

The Chargers could take a top receiver or pass rusher too, but building the foundation of the offense is the best play. 

2020 Stats: 43 REC, 770 YD, 12 TD

How far will another of the premier playmakers fall in the draft? It’s not that Pitts or Jaylen Waddle should still be available this late based on talent but we can justify other fits. The Vikings can reap the benefits.

They continue to address the offense one-year after hitting a home run with Justin Jefferson by taking Pitts. Pitts is versatile and athletic enough to play as an outside receiver, slot or inline tight end. He’s a fantastic talent thanks to his great size, speed, catch radius and insanely strong hands. 

The Vikings may also consider help on the interior defensive line, edge, or along the offensive line. This roster needs a serious injection of impactful talents. 

2020 Stats: 28 REC, 591 YD, 4 TD

The veteran free-agent pool for quarterbacks is razor thin but it’s hard to imagine the Patriots would enter this draft without an answer there. A reunion with Jacoby Brissett seems like the worst-case scenario, and that’s not too bad. The team must fill numerous holes on both sides of the ball but have a lot of cap space to do so.

Enough is enough as far as seeing this offense deal with horrible receiver play. The Patriots will certainly sign a starter like Corey Davis or JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency, and can double down with their first-round pick. Landing Waddle here would be fantastic.

Waddle might be the best pure receiver in the class thanks to his breakneck speed, fluid cuts and natural feel with the ball in his hands. 

2020 Stats: 2 INT, 6 PD 

There’s a lot of needs on the Arizona Cardinals roster and limited money to make some of the holes disappear. It’s shocking to see general manager Steve Keim still in position after so many missed picks and signings. He and coach Kliff Kingsbury are facing the heat after a disappointing end to 2020.

Deciding between an edge rusher and cornerback will be a tough call. Patrick Peterson looked done last year, and Dre Kirkpatrick isn’t worth his bloated salary. Getting a premier cornerback on the roster is a must.

The South Carolina stud has everything needed to help right away. He has elite length, instincts, and ball skills.

Sat Out 2020 Season

Derek Carr entered the year on the hot seat, but he’s earned his keep for the immediate future thanks to more aggressive play. The Raiders offense has been solid despite mediocre receiver play and offensive line injuries, meaning it’s time to bolster that unit in free agency and the middle rounds of the draft. But the impact players are needed on defense.

Taking another edge defender isn’t a massive indictment on their recent investments, but rather a sign they don’t have a true creator at the position. Clelin Ferrell is a nice piece and Maxx Crosby is solid, but Rousseau has the athletic upside to be a true star and make this unit take a huge leap. Rousseau has freakish movement ability and sky-high potential to win one-on-one if his technique improves. 

Size: 6’6”, 320 LB

Miami already added a receiver, and now they land one of the best blockers in a very good tackle group. Oklahoma State’s Jenkins is a riser thanks to dominant tape. The tackle could immediately start in Miami and solidify most the unit, leaving only a need for a long-term center on the roster.

Jenkins is already a polished pass blocker capable of playing either tackle spot for Miami. Along with either signing a veteran impact running back or drafting one in the second-round, Miami could quickly look like one of the best up-and-coming offensive units in the league.

2020 Stats: 4,500 YD, 41 TD, 4 INT

Washington is in such a difficult spot sitting this far down in the draft. The veteran quarterback market will have all of the same names being discussed, and if Jameis Winston goes back to New Orleans, there’s not a potential long-term answer available on the market once Wentz is dealt. That will push Jones’s name up the boards.

Jones is similar to Jimmy G. He’s not the most physically gifted passer but he’s smart and will execute an offense effectively. He’ll need speedy receivers around him to create early separation to ease his transition from Alabama. Putting him into a competition with Gardner Minshew, for example, would be a better quarterback situation for Washington than what they had last year.

2020 Stats: 36 REC, 472 YD, 2 TD

It’s possible Chicago won’t have this pick if they pay a heavy price for a veteran quarterback like Wentz. They have to make a move, or else explain why they’d be signing or trading for a quarterback they passed up last year like Winston or Bridgewater. Re-signing Mitchell Trubisky shouldn’t be an option.

Whoever is playing quarterback will need weapons. The current roster is razor thin, and hopefully a better passer will get more out of Anthony Miller. 

Bateman is a big-bodied receiver who moves like a smaller player. He has soft, sure hands and good route-running speed and smoothness. He’s the ideal replacement for Robinson if he leaves, and even if not, they’re both good enough to move around in formations.

2020 Stats: 3 INT, 6 PD, 1 FF

The Colts are another team expected to look at different quarterback options this offseason. Darnold has been the popular name thrown around, but I wouldn’t be stunned if they get Wentz. Maybe they should ask Philip Rivers to stick around and not retire.

The Colts could justify drafting a receiver, but it makes more sense to sign Allen Robinson, Corey Davis, or JuJu Smith-Schuster and continue to develop Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell. That means addressing their cornerback room is a must. 

Xavier Rhodes has had a solid bounceback season, but is a short-term option, and 2019 second-rounder Rock Ya-Sin has been a massive disappointment.

Florida State’s Samuel has the skill set to take the starting job and run away with it as a rookie. He has great confidence, physicality, and ball skills. He’s the perfect fit for Indianapolis’ zone tendencies and adds a playmaking presence. 

2020 Stats: 5 SACK, 25 SOLO, 3 FF

The Titans are a solid team, but have some tough decisions to make this offseason. Their decision to not give Corey Davis his fifth-year option looks like the wrong one, and they are faced with having to pay him with a new deal or losing him. They also could use a pass-rusher and help in the secondary.

Some of these issues can be handled before the draft. Re-signing Davis might cost Malcolm Butler and Adam Humphries, but that’s a fair trade off considering neither of those two have earned their big salaries. A second pass-rusher across from Harold Landry is going to be the other temptation depending on how the board falls.

The board has an impact edge rusher in Texas’s Ossai. The speedy playmaker dominated games for the Longhorns, and will thrive across from Landry.

2020 Stats: 25 REC, 270 YD, O TD

We’ve already given the Jets a star quarterback in Fields, and they may have another second-round pick for moving Darnold by this point, so we have to make sure the offense is set for Fields to thrive. With Breshad Perriman a free agent, last year’s second-round selection Denzel Mims needs a complimentary receiver next to him.

Getting a versatile receiver will be key. Moore can play inside and outside, and return kicks on special teams. Looking at how Kansas City uses Tyreek Hill is a good blueprint on how to continue manufacturing touches for the former freshman phenom. 

Size: 6’7”, 309 LB

The Steelers had a disastrous end to the season after starting out 11-0 but the veteran roster has a lot to work with. This franchise is used to being a position of developing young players quickly thanks to cap constraints.

The Steelers have to trim their cap numbers in 2021, and must deal with tackles Alejandro Villanueva and Matt Feiler as free agents on top of cap limitations. That means drafting a starter seems inevitable.

Cosmi would be an ideal fit for the offense—he’s long and athletic enough to train up quickly and make Ben Roethlisberger feel comfortable in the pocket.

2020 Stats: 8 SACK, 22 SOLO, 3 FF

Rebuilding the trenches in Jacksonville may not be the best value as far as production, but it’ll be important for the new head coach. The Jaguars defense took a dip without a more stout interior unit, and taking an Alabama product has been a good way to fix that over the last several years. This year’s quality prospect from the program is Barmore.

Barmore is well-balanced, hard-working, and athletic enough to make an impact early in his career. There’s a lack of quality first-round interior defenders, and he’ll rise because he stands out with his consistency. Getting fresh blood from a winning program can help Meyer be effective early on. 

2020 Stats: 2 INT, 9 PD

Addressing the defense this offseason is critical for the Browns. The need for an edge rusher is huge after Olivier Vernon suffered a torn Achilles, and they could stand to pick up a cornerback in free agency. The Browns don’t have a ton of cap space to work with, but they should be able to enter the draft with at least one of those, if not both, crossed off their needs.

If they do, then taking the best player available is a nice situation to be in. It’s unlikely they’d take a linebacker this high based on their organizational values, but a versatile safety would add a lot to this unit. Moehrig can play single high or in the slot and provide a huge boost to coverage.

2020 Stats: 86 REC, 1,193 YD, 8 TD

Baltimore has a big need for a receiver, so adding both a veteran and a high-end rookie only makes sense. Their cap situation makes it imperative that a contributor be found immediately. A rising name is Ole Miss’ Elijah Moore.

Moore is a terror from the slot, boasting great size and pure speed. He’ll give Lamar Jackson and this offense needed consistency and explosiveness.

2020 Stats: 1 INT, 5 PD

As good as the New Orleans Saints are, it’ll be a fascinating offseason for them. The Drew Brees-era appears over, and it’s possible Taysom Hill will be given the reigns. If so, the Saints must continue to build a strong roster around Hill and replace some aging, expensive veterans.

The roster will be turned over a bit and purged of deals or restructured to help buy any help. Continuing to invest into the secondary will be critical since Janoris Jenkins is expensive and aging, and Marshon Lattimore needs a running mate.

Campbell is the next-best name in a quality corner class. The lengthy, physical corner would immediately give this unit a developmental starter with the upside to bully opposing receivers. This division is deep with impact receivers so finding quality corners is key. 

2020 Stats: 48 REC, 731 YD, 0 TD

Help is needed around Aaron Rodgers after a disappointing end to their season. We saw enough dropped passes and lack of open receivers against Tampa Bay to know this team needs to go all-in this off-season. Failing to sign a veteran due to cap space means that the draft offers the answer.

A downfield presence like Marshall gets the nod in this mock. The 6’3”, 200-pound speedster has had two great seasons at LSU, and is a big-play threat every pass. He’s already capable of winning on vertical routes and everything that plays off go routes, like curls, comebacks, and dig routes, meaning he can play right away.

The Bills had a fantastic breakout season thanks to Josh Allen’s improvement and the addition of Stefon Diggs. The defense has taken a step back and there’s a huge need for a cornerback across from Tre’Davious White, but ensuring the offense remains their strength is critical. Allen needs competent blocking and the run game can’t be forgotten as part of their identity.

Taking an offensive lineman would make sense but the running backs are also an issue for the unit. Najee Harris is an awesome talent and able to fix the lack of explosiveness in the Bills’ backfield. Simply, Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are too limited to overcome any type of disadvantageous situation they face.

Harris is a great all-around playmaker. The Bills can ask less of Allen in 2021 with Harris in the backfield to take pressure off the passing game.

Sat Out 2020 Season

We finally saw the weakness with the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Injuries finally stifled the wonderfully talented offense, and Tampa Bay pinned their ears back as they chased after Mahomes all game long. The Chiefs need to inject several young, cheap, and healthy bodies onto the roster.

Getting Virginia Tech’s Darrisaw this late would be an insane value. He can play tackle or guard and make an impact as a rookie. The Chiefs would be able to revamp the unit without forcing the rookie to be a saving grace Day 1 because their injured starters will be back in 2021.

2020 Stats: 5.5 SACK, 22 SOLO, 1 INT, 1 FF

The rich get even richer. Assuming that Chris Godwin and Shaquil Barrett are back in 2021, the Bucs just need to continue augmenting the roster. Adding a top-tier running back is tempting if Leonard Fournette leaves, but keeping the trenches strong is key for Tom Brady to keep winning Super Bowls.

Ndamukong Suh and William Gholston are aging and need depth behind him, if not outright replace one of the veterans due to cap reasons. Iowa’s Nixon is an explosive interior presence who can replicate Suh’s game at a fraction of the cost.