2019 Oscars Predictions: Who Should Win and Who Will Win

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Who Will Win: Green Book

While it was lambasted in the media and on Twitter for bending the truth in its screenplay and depiction of pianist Don Shirley, as well as Vigo's unnecessary use of the n-word during a whole ass Q&A about the film, it did end up taking home a Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy. That doesn't mean an Oscar win is surefire, but it does have a better chance than most (especially since it'll be surprising to see it take home more than two of the Oscars its nominated for).—khal

Who Should Win: A Star Is Born

On the flipside, Bradley Cooper's A Star Is Born earned eight Oscar nominations, and has been a critical and commercial darling since it hit theaters. Outside of the musical noms, it's hard to see which Awards Star will snag but a Best Picture win would be satisfying to everyone tuned in, unless they really think Black Panther is taking the Oscar back to Wakanda.—khal

Dark Horse: Roma

Kudos to Netflix; ya'll did that. This black-and-white, beautifully shot, two-and-a-half-hour epic set in the Mexico of the early '70s might have put some to sleep (present company included), but a win here is more symbolic than anything. The Academy giving Netflix a Best Picture win—which would be its first—would be the stake placed firmly in the ground that streaming is on par with the regular theatrical circuit, tradition be damned. And at least this is the kind of high art that the Academy rocks with.—khal

Who Will Win: Spike Lee

Let's keep it a buck: Spike Lee should've BEEN won an Oscar; if not for Do the Right Thing, definitely for Malcolm X. With BlacKkKlansman unanimously being the film critics say is Lee back on his dean, it'd make sense that he'd finally take home the Best Director award.—khal

Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón

Kinda like it or truly love it, you can't front on the opus that Alfonso handed to Netflix. It made those who saw it (either in an actual theater or on their phones, for some reason) feel for the maid at the center of the piece, and even if it wasn't a big cog in the wheel of Netflix's AWARDS SZN future, it's a damn fine film that is deserving of any awards bestowed on it.—khal

Dark Horse: Adam McKay

For what it's worth, it doesn't feel like Vice is really about to win any categories, save for one; a quirky take on Dick Cheney's rise in the political realm is a huge risk, and an immediate turn-off for many. Guiding Bale through his performance and being ballsy enough to drop a whole-ass credits sequence mid-film were treats for those who tuned in, and could position McKay as the sleeper in this category.—khal

Who Will Win: Rami Malek

Listen, I’ll probably never see this film and I’m one of the only people I know still going hard for Mr. Robot. I was down to see it in theaters at one point off the assumption that the concert scenes would probably ring off best in that setting and sleep through everything else. But the more I hear about this film, the more hilarious and hilariously sad clips shared to express bemusement that anyone could think this film was an achievement worth honoring...the more I think I’m good. You shouldn’t only watch things you expect to love, but life is long and there are way more interesting failures on my queue to parse. With that said, Rami has undeniable momentum from wins elsewhere this awards season, and every voter that gets asked seems downright charmed by his dead ringer Mercury impression. Rami’s a great actor; this role looks like it didn’t ask much of his skill. He’s a sure shot.—Frazier Tharpe

Who Should Win: Bradley Cooper

The exhausting [social] media blitz A Star Is Born went on during its run and the almost entitled air its Stans are expressing when what seemed like a foregone awards sweep went south very quickly can engender a lot of schadenfreude towards its capital-A auteur Bradley Cooper. Don’t let it: he may be crying through fake smiles but objectively, he has a reason to. Poll everyone who saw the movie and it’s a 50-50 split on who bodied who between Coop and his IRL and on-screen muse *Stephanie.* She did her thing but Bradley’s Jackson Maine is—at any given moment—communicating a lifetime of hurt, confidence, insecurity, despondency, and adoration sometimes with the flicker of a facial expression. And while playing drunk for half of the movie, which almost every actor usually over-does! Award this man! —Frazier Tharpe

Dark Horse: Christian Bale

These Academy cucks love a thespian in historical drag. The only thing more appealing to them than a dead ringer is someone who cOmPletELY lOSEs tHemSelves PHYSicalLy in ThE RoLE. Which Christian loves to do, just, usually in better films that have more to say than “LOL, politics,” amirite?—Frazier Tharpe

Who Will Win: Glenn Close

Did you catch The Wife? Neither did we. The thing is, Close is a dynamo in whatever she's in, and while she's a seven-time Academy Award nominee, she's never taken the Oscar home (which is a record). This feels like the year they rectify that.—khal

Who Should Win: Melissa McCarthy

The conversation surrounding Can You Forgive Me?, in which the normally-hilarious McCarthy plays a writer who resorts to forging letters from legendary historical figures just to survive, is that the normally-hilarious McCarthy got her dramatic chops up. And she did, in spades. The film is a methodical one, and allows McCarthy to really shine. Her bread-and-butter is the weekend popcorn comedies that feel "safe" for the bigwigs in Hollywood, but it'd be fire to see her stand tall and receive an Oscar for playing against type like a boss.—khal

Dark Horse: Olivia Colman

Frazier told me that The Favourite was a solid film from 2018, and while I was immediately turned off by the fact that it takes place Lord knows how many hundreds of years ago, Colman did cause enough of a stir to receive both a Globe and a BAFTA for her portrayal of Queen Anne. If Glenn Close goes home award-less once again, it coul dbe because Colman's Milly Rock'n with it.—khal

Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali

Ali won this award back in 2016 for his role in Barry Jenkins' Moonlight, and could do-so again, even if most of the people supporting his potential win aren't rocking with Green Book, the film he's nominated for. I'm fine with following Issa Rae's lead on this one.—khal

Who Should Win: Adam Driver

John David Washington shined in BlacKkKlansman, but Adam Driver definitely held his own. Hell, the way he carried the intensity of hiding your Jewish heritage in a room full of armed Klansman is proof enough that he should just take this one home.—khal

Dark Horse: Sam Rockwell or Sam Elliott

The Tale of Two Sams. Rockwell's performance in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri netted him the Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars (as well as wins at the Globes and two Screen Actor's Guild wins). His portrayal of George W. Bush in Vice was a highlight of the film, and puts him as the most viable threat for Ali's win. On the other hand, Elliott's an acting vet, starting his career in 1968, but this is his very first Oscar nomination. If the theme of the night is flower giving, Elliott's work in A Star Is Born could be his ticket to an Oscar victory.—khal

Who Will Win: Regina King

Regina King is one of the best in the business of any gender. She delivered all of the intense emotion in If Beale Street Could Talk, playing a desparate mother who flew ALL THE WAY TO PUERTO RICO to find the woman who accussed her son of rape. She deserved her Golden Globe win for the role, and as such, should have the Oscar sitting on her chair when she finds her seat.—khal

Who Should Win: Regina King

Dead ass, just send Regina the award right now so she can walk the red carpet with it.—khal

Dark Horse: Emma Stone

Stone took home the Best Actress Oscar for her work in La La Land, and she's continued to shine since that film was released. It's a tough task to stand out in a film like The Favourite, with both Olivia Colman and Rachel Weisz wowing critics for their performances, but Emma's on one, and is well within her rights to be awarded as such.—khal

Who Will Win: First Reformed

Paul Schrader wrote: Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, and The Last Temptation of the Christ. This is his first time even being nominated for an Academy Award. Yea, they’re going to Scorsese-Departed him.—Frazier Tharpe

Who Should Win: The Favourite

There is a lot to love about this wicked, sharp, zany movie in every aspect and if it doesn’t deserve all of the awards it’s up for, it’s at the very least a worthy contender. I think it may even have the most nominations, which is wild because the Academy usually likes their period pieces like women from this time like their corsets: stiff, binding and uptight. Of everything it’s up for, screenplay may be the arena Yorgos deserves love for the most because this story truly was one of the most unique scripts out last year, touching on female rage and ambition with a heavy dose of black comedy. All respect to Ethan Hawke and his barbed wire, though.—Frazier Tharpe

Dark Horse: Green Book

Much has been rightly made of Green Book’s story, if anything most of the thorny outrage around the film stems from its script and the odd, at times gross ways it shifts perspective, perception, and significance onto Tony Lip versus the actual famous black historical figure, and the ways it maybe even massages truths about the latter to fit a story about the former. So, of course, it might very well get awarded for such.—Frazier Tharpe

Who Will Win: BlackkKlansman

This night might be all about finally giving Spike his flowers, and who can really begrudge that? He took an interesting time period when the racial divide was a powder keg and imbued it with gravitas, nuance and crucially humor, all in service of showing how it’s still, sadly a powder keg. Award this man!—Frazier Tharpe

Who Should Win: A Star Is Born

Listen, this movie is about 10x better than it had any business being. A blockbuster mainstream romance with a story that’s actually compelling and surprising even in spite of its inevitability? Award this man, Bradley!—Frazier Tharpe

Dark Horse: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

This is the movie 40 percent of Oscar viewers and 75 percent of Oscars Ceremony Headline Viewers will be catching up on in the aftermath. Melissa McCarthy surprised everyone with her dramatic turn here, and her prestige vehicle may very well surprise in the polls as well.—Frazier Tharpe

Who Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Say what you will about both Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War, but in the minds of many comic book-loving superhero movie-goers, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse was one of the best movies of 2018, and possibly the best superhero film released that year. Groundbreaking animation mixed with a fan favorite of an Afro-Latino hero who rocked Jordans and bombed subways was a crowd favorite, and possibly has done more to legitamize superhero cinema more than anything released in 2018...or in the last five years.—khal

Who Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

For real, it's that damn good. Tell Miles Morales the Oscar is a villain so he can swoop in, web it up, and take it home with him.—khal

Dark Horse: Incredibles 2

Fans had to wait over a decade for the sequel to The Incredibles, and Disney Pixar stuck the landing. If the Academy isn't ready for Spider-Man to walk away with this one, Incredibles 2 is a worthy opponent.—khal

Who Will Win: Black Panther

Will they actually give Black Panther any of the “big” awards? Who knows, but in the event that it doesn’t, this thirsty-for-clout Academy will surely go out of the way to make sure it doesn’t leave empty-handed. A win for legends-in-the-making like Ludwig Göransson is a win for us all, politics or not.—Frazier Tharpe

Who Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Name another theme that communicated the purity of true love and the tragedy of a love impeded at the same time, I’ll wait!—Frazier Tharpe

Dark Horse: Mary Poppins Returns

I didn’t see this movie and never will but I would bet money that 80 percent of the Academy thinks of it as a future classic.—Frazier Tharpe

Who Will Win: "Shallow"

This isn’t even the best song from A Star Is Born, in my opinion; it’s titanic on its own and especially monstrous within the context of the movie.—Frazier Tharpe

Who Should Win: “Shallow”

It’s not my favorite, but it’s a great song and it carries the weight of both the underlying romance and the story of the movie on its shoulders. Award it as such.—Frazier Tharpe

Dark Horse: “All the Stars”

The Academy has to seem cool somehow. Nominate “King’s Dead” if you’re really about it, cowards!—Frazier Tharpe

Who Will Win: Roma

I appreciate and respect this movie more than I actually liked it or have any will to watch it again, but if there is one dominion where Alfonso simply cannot be fucked with, it’s in cinematography. Especially since the cowards didn’t nominate Barry.—Frazier Tharpe

Who Should Win: Roma

The fewer awards this movie wins the better because as much as I enjoy some Netflix content they’re honestly forming a Death Star over there and prestige critical clout will only further that agenda. But, Alfonso created a dreamy, nostalgia-tinged hue of black-and-white I’ve never even seen before. Award that man.—Frazier Tharpe

Dark Horse: A Star Is Born

A pity award for Bradley’s Best Director snub, perhaps?—Frazier Tharpe