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After getting rescheduled from its original Jan. 31 date, the Grammys will take place this Sunday, March 14, at 8:00 p.m. ET.
This year’s nominations raised a few eyebrows about the credibility of the annual event (and pissed off Weeknd fans everywhere) but the show goes on. When the ceremony begins, the collective focus of the music industry will be directed squarely on the Staples Center in Los Angeles.
Heading into the night, Beyoncé leads all artists with nine total nominations, followed by Roddy Ricch and Dua Lipa with six each. There are always surprise winners and baffling choices, which makes it a daunting task to predict the awards each year, but the Complex Music team put our heads together and shared our picks for who we think will (and should) win each of the major awards. For the purposes of this post, we focused on the all-genre, rap, r&b, and pop categories. Dive in below and check back on Monday to see how we did.
Record of the Year
Nominees: Beyoncé “Black Parade,” Black Pumas “Colors,” DaBaby f/ Roddy Ricch “Rockstar,” Doja Cat “Say So,” Billie Eilish “Everything I Wanted,” Dua Lipa “Don’t Start Now,” Post Malone “Circles,” Megan Thee Stallion f/ Beyoncé “Savage Remix”
Who will win: Billie Eilish, “Everything I Wanted”
Grammys voting committees love Billie Eilish. They made that very clear last year when she swept the four major categories in 2020 and won five awards in total. Billie hasn’t released another album, but her single “Everything I Wanted” still pulled in three nominations. Although the understated song didn’t make as big of a splash as some of the other nominees, there isn’t an overwhelming favorite here and we can see voters getting excited about seeing Billie’s name on the list and giving her the nod.
Who should win: Megan Thee Stallion f/ Beyoncé, “Savage Remix”
Not only was Megan and Beyoncé’s “Savage” remix one of our favorite songs of the year, it made one of the biggest impacts of 2020 when it dropped. If you were on the internet when this thing touched down, you remember how it completely stopped everyone in their tracks. Beyond the great storyline of Megan collaborating with one of her idols, the song is an undeniable hit, and not just because Beyoncé rapped about Demon Time. They deserve to be rewarded with Grammys. —Eric Skelton
Song of the Year
Nominees: Beyoncé “Black Parade,” Roddy Ricch “The Box,” Taylor Swift “Cardigan,” Post Malone “Circles,” Dua Lipa “Don’t Start Now,” Billie Eilish “Everything I Wanted,” H.E.R. “I Can’t Breathe,” JP Saxe f/ Julia Michaels “If the World Was Ending”
Who will win: Beyoncé, “Black Parade”
Like many of us, the Recording Academy has a sweet spot for Beyoncé. But beyond Bey’s starpower, “Black Parade” feels like a front-runner because of what the song symbolizes. The track, which was released on Juneteenth, celebrated Black people during a deeply racially-divided period as protesters took to the streets across America following the death of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, Ahmaud Arbery, and many others. Proceeds from the record were also donated to 250 Black-owned businesses. So, it would make the most sense for the Academy to acknowledge the ways in which Beyoncé’s song helped uplift people during this time.
Who should win: Roddy Ricch, “The Box”
Although “Black Parade” is a powerful and moving record, Roddy Ricch’s “The Box” should go home with the Grammy. Commercially, it was the biggest song of the first half of 2020, selling more than four million units and sitting at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 for 11 weeks. It’s also a creative and catchy song that deserves accolades. Roddy Ricch dominated 2020, and a top category win like this would deservedly solidify his influence on the past year. —Jessica McKinney
Album of the Year
Nominees: Jhené Aiko (Chilombo), Black Pumas, (Black Pumas (Deluxe)), Coldplay (Everyday Life), Jacob Collier, Djesse Vol. 3, HAIM (Women in Music Pt. III), Dua Lipa (Future Nostalgia), Post Malone (Hollywood’s Bleeding), Taylor Swift (Folklore)
Who will win: Taylor Swift, Folklore
The stars are aligning for Taylor Swift in this category. Not only was Folklore a major commercial success, debuting at No. 1 and breaking the record for the biggest opening day on Spotify for an album by a female act, it was also a critical darling. Drawing praise for its folk-leaning instrumentation and imaginative songwriting, the album was a hit with most people who heard it, and it is likely the voting committee will lean in its direction here.
Who should win: Jhené Aiko, Chilombo
Jhené Akio is a bit of an underdog in this category, but Chilombo deserves all the praise in the world. Executive produced by Jhené herself, the album is highlighted by standouts like “Triggered” and “B.S.,” as well as excellent deeper cuts like “Tryna Smoke.” This was a much-needed, soothing album that we kept going back to all year, and it deserves some Grammys hardware in a major category. —Eric Skelton
Best New Artist
Nominees: Ingrid Andress, Phoebe Bridgers, Chika, Noah Cyrus, D Smoke, Doja Cat, Kaytranada, Megan Thee Stallion
Who will win: Megan Thee Stallion
The Best New Artist award is going to cap off Megan Thee Stallion’s incredible breakthrough run. This is a category that’s held a clear frontrunner in year’s past. Dua Lipa’s 2019 win was a lock and while Billie’s crazy haul in 2020 was semi-surprising, her winning Best New Artist was assumed. Megan is this year’s frontrunner. With her Suga tape, her Houston linkup hit with Beyonce “Savage (Remix),” and the massive numbers put up with “WAP,” it’s tough to see this award going to anyone else. It’s fair to categorize Good News as a misstep, but lucky (at least in this context) for Megan, it was released well after the eligibility cutoff date so voters will choose to ignore it. The only other act in this category that’s in Megan’s sphere commercially (and for what it’s worth, actually surpasses her in Spotify monthly listeners) is Doja Cat. You might be thinking that the Grammys has a history of snubbing a popular artist for someone more unknown (see: Beck) and you’d be right—but not with this category. Over the past decade, the winners have been, for the most part, artists with sizable hits to their name and often the most popular artist in the category (2018 and 2012 are big exceptions here). Sunday night continues the trend.
Who should win: Megan Thee Stallion
There are plenty of deserving people in this category and the decision to increase the amount of nominees to eight is a good one, if only to allow more talented musicians to be recognized for their work. As mentioned, Doja Cat has hits that are everywhere you go and is probably the closest to upsetting Megan on Sunday. Phoebe Bridgers will almost certainly pick up some hardware in rock and alternative categories after a breakout 2020 in which she released the masterful Punisher. Alabama rapper Chika’s debut album Industry Games is bold and creative, flipping old tropes to talk about matters like imposter syndrome. I could go on and on. However, Megan’s been a force to be reckoned with ever since Tina Snow and has proven her ability to both rap rap and deliver mainstream hits. She had two of the best songs of 2020. Her success should be, and will be, rewarded. —Waiss Aramesh
Best Rap Performance
Nominees: Big Sean f/ Nipsey Hussle “Deep Reverence,” DaBaby “Bop,” Jack Harlow “What’s Poppin,” Lil Baby “The Bigger Picture,” Megan Thee Stallion f/ Beyoncé “Savage Remix,” Pop Smoke “Dior”
Who will win: Megan Thee Stallion f/ Beyoncé, “Savage Remix”
The Grammys are a yearly showcase, but over time, the committee’s collective selections serve as a documentation of music history. Someone looking through award winners 30 years from now should be able to see an accurate reflection of what was going on across eras. The Grammys committee hasn’t been particularly good at that, but there’s always another chance to get it right. With that logic, it makes sense to give Megan Thee Stallion her fair share of awards this year, because she owned the rap world. Her swaggering, sex-positive rhymes were inescapable in 2020, especially on “Savage,” which just so happened to also contain an unforgettable verse from Beyoncé. “Savage” was a fun track featuring two beloved artists that served as an early quarantine pick-me-up, and hit the top of the charts. For that reason, it’s a smart choice for Best Rap Performance.
Who should win: Pop Smoke, “Dior”
By that same documentation logic, we’d hate to see it if the committee didn’t give Pop his flowers and acknowledge “Dior,” one of his most beloved singles. It’s a damn shame that this year may already be his last chance to win a Grammy. Anyone who listened to Shoot For The Stars, Aim For The Moon and heard the way he mastered a slew of styles knows he would have been in the Grammys conversation for years to come. The Brooklyn rapper had international appeal and was just getting started. “Dior” shows Pop at his best: flashy, braggadocious, menacing, and getting the party started over a hypnotizing 808 Melo synth. Pop getting a look here would be one of the highlights of the show, and a stamp for a Brooklyn drill music scene that lost its brightest light. —Andre Gee
Best Melodic Rap Performance
Nominees: DaBaby f/ Roddy Ricch “Rockstar,” Drake f/ Lil Durk “Laugh Now Cry Later,” Anderson .Paak “Lockdown,” Roddy Ricch “The Box,” Travis Scott “Highest in the Room”
Who will win: DaBaby f/ Roddy Ricch, “Rockstar”
Both of the Roddy Ricch records feel like front-runners in this category, but “Rockstar” might get the nod because it owned the summer, spending seven consecutive weeks atop the Billboard Hot 100. “Rockstar” is also more melodic than “The Box” or popular records like “Highest in the Room” and “Laugh Now Cry Later.”
Who should win: Roddy Ricch, “The Box”
“The Box” is fundamentally a better record than any of the songs in this category, and it created a huge buzz earning Roddy Ricch a spot atop the Billboard Hot 100 chart for eleven weeks. Not to mention, the record even had Justin Bieber shaking at one point. “The Box” should be the winner in this category, but the main takeaway is that Roddy Ricch will likely be going home with a Grammy regardless. —Jessica McKinney
Best Rap Song
Nominees: Lil Baby “The Bigger Picture,” Roddy Ricch “The Box,” Drake f/ Lil Durk “Laugh Now Cry Later,” DaBaby f/ Roddy Ricch “Rockstar,” Megan Thee Stallion f/ Beyoncé “Savage Remix”
Who will win: Lil Baby, “The Bigger Picture”
By the end of night, Lil Baby should have at least one Grammy win, and if he were to get it for any record, “The Bigger Picture” makes the most sense. The track was named Complex’s best song of 2020 and received critical acclaim for reflecting the current political climate and showcasing Lil Baby’s strengths as a rapper as he recounted his personal experiences. The Recording Academy will see it as a powerful choice, and it is in many ways.
Who should win: Roddy Ricch, “The Box”
That being said, “Roddy Ricch’s “The Box” still deserves the nod in this category. You couldn’t turn on the radio or go on TikTok without this song coming on, and going off of influence and reach alone, “The Box” dominated the year. It also happens to be a great song. —Jessica McKinney
Best Rap Album
Nominees: D Smoke (Black Habits), Freddie Gibbs and The Alchemist (Alfredo), Jay Electronica (A Written Testimony), Nas (King’s Disease), Royce da 5’9” (The Allegory)
Who will win: Nas, King’s Disease
One of the biggest anti-Grammy gripes has been the amount of legendary rappers who haven’t won a Grammy, including Nas. He’s released numerous classics over the years, and has received over a dozen nominations, but he’s never actually won. That might finally change. There was a good amount of fuss last November when the Best Rap Album nominations were announced. The Academy must have heard the years-long complaints of rap purists who condemned the committee’s ignorance of spitters like Nas and sought to appease them with nominations that left younger favorites like Lil Baby and Roddy Ricch on the outside looking in. Our instinct is that we’ll see a paradoxical selection here as they reward the safest choice amongst their bold selections: Nas. His King’s Disease album was well-regarded for marrying Hit-Boy’s modern production to his timeless rhymes, and the Academy will figure it’s simply time to give Nas his due. No music award show body worth a damn should say they’ve never once awarded Nas, so it’ll happen here. It’s just a shame it’ll happen in a year when Alfredo is clearly the best album in the category.
Who should win: Freddie Gibbs and The Alchemist, Alfredo
Let’s be straight to the point with this: Freddie Gibbs’ Alfredo is the best album in this category. Pondering whether it’s the best rap album released in the Grammy committee’s eligibility window is one thing, but amongst these choices, there’s only one real selection. Gibbs has been on fire for so long that it can’t even be considered “a run” at this point, and Alfredo is a high mark in his catalog. Alchemist gave him a perfect canvas of beats that veered from cinematic, to soulful, to brooding, and he tore through them all with melodic flows unveiling a mesh of gritty HBO-worthy drug tales, “I’m the best” boasts, and his IG-banned sense of humor. As I’ve said before, there’s sonic boundary pushing that’s been rewarded in past Grammy cycles, then there’s the essence of rap: dope rhymes over dope beats. Alfredo was the best of both, which makes it the seemingly obvious choice for us. —Andre Gee
Best Music Video
Nominees: Beyoncé “Brown Skin Girl” (Beyoncé Knowles-Carter and Jenn Nkiru, video directors; Lauren Baker, Astrid Edwards, Nathan Scherrer, and Erinn Williams, video producers), Future f/ Drake “Life Is Good” (Julien Christian Lutz, video director; Harv Glazer, video producer), Anderson .Paak “Lockdown” (Dave Meyers, video director; Nathan Scherrer, video producer), Harry Styles “Adore You” (Dave Meyers, video director; Nathan Scherrer, video producer), Woodkid “Goliath” (Yoann Lemoine, video director)
Who will win: Beyoncé, “Brown Skin Girl”
If Beyonce ain’t gonna do nothin’ else, she’s gonna make Black women and girls feel special. Such was the case with “Brown Skin Girl,” a highlight from her Black Is King visual album that deserves the Best Music Video award. The elegant Jenn Nkiru-directed video is a perfect addendum to the song’s celebration of Blackness, featuring people of all shades and complexions, but primarily centering dark skinned people. Colorism is a worldwide plague (and a not-so-open secret in the music industry) which is why it was great to see Nkiru and Beyonce collaborate and fulfill Nkiru’s vision of depicting “intimacy, sisterhood, [and] celebrations” among Black women. The Grammy committee has had well-documented problems acknowledging Black creatives, so we’re going to assume they’re not going to miss an easy opportunity here.
Who should win: Beyoncé, “Brown Skin Girl”
...Nor should they. “Brown Skin Girl” video is a stunning work that helps soothe many Black women’s qualms about their worth and beauty in an anti-Black world, which is why it’s the easy choice for Best Music Video. —Andre Gee
Best Pop Solo Performance
Nominees: Justin Bieber “Yummy,” Doja Cat “Say So,” Billie Eilish “Everything I Wanted,” Dua Lipa “Don’t Start Now,” Harry Styles “Watermelon Sugar,” Taylor Swift “Cardigan”
Who will win: Dua Lipa, “Don’t Start Now”
Another iteration of Dua Lipa versus Taylor Swift. All but one of these songs are deserving of the nomination (I’ll let you guess the outlier) and four out of six are nominated in the general Record of the Year or Song of the Year categories. While “Cardigan” is the best song on this list, for reasons similar to the Best Pop Album conversation, “Don’t Start Now” will pick up a win here. In a year when the biggest projects pulled inspiration from music of the ’70s and ’80s, Dua did a masterful job at creating a disco anthem for the twenty-first century and even sampled the 1978 classic “I Will Survive” by Gloria Gaynor. It’s an undeniable feel-good hit that somewhat fits the mold of past winners in this category. And don’t fall into the trap of assuming the losers here automatically disqualify them from taking home Record of the Year or Song of the Year. The Grammys love to stay inconsistent: last year, Billie Eilish’s “Bad Guy” lost out on this award but swept Record of the Year and Song of the Year. Don’t be surprised to see “Cardigan” pick up a win in a bigger category but Dua to take this one home.
Who should win: Dua Lipa, “Don’t Start Now”
A lot of these nominations are great songs that had their moments. That being said, only one of them is going to pass the test of time as a massive pop hit from the early 2020s. It might not sound fair to base an award off something like that, but when you’re comparing tracks that are equally different as they are good, context helps. “Cardigan” is one of the most well-written songs of Taylor’s career, but it’s very much an album single that plays even better in the scope of Folklore. “Everything I Wanted” is great but feels dwarfed by When We All Fall Asleep Where Do We Go’s success. Fine Line is a really good album but “Watermelon Sugar” is its weakest single. “Say So” won’t have the lasting impact of “Don’t Start Now,” and I’m not addressing “Yummy” being nominated here. Dua deserves this one. —Waiss Aramesh
Best Pop Duo/Group Performance
Nominees: J Balvin, Dua Lipa, Bad Bunny, and Tainy “Un Dia (One Day),” Justin Bieber f/ Quavo “Intentions,” BTS “Dynamite,” Lady Gaga and Ariana Grande “Rain on Me,” Taylor Swift f/ Bon Iver “Exile”
Who will win: Lady Gaga and Ariana Grande, “Rain on Me”
If you hadn’t even heard any of these songs before, you could probably still assume the Grammys would give this one to a collaboration between Lady Gaga and Ariana Grande. Whenever two powerhouse pop performers like them link up, you have to imagine members of the voting committees start salivating immediately. Lady Gaga is always a favorite for awards like this, winning eleven total Grammys over the years, and she looks like a favorite again. First-time nominees BTS are riding a lot of momentum coming into the night, and they present a formidable challenge to Ari and Gaga, but “Rain on Me” still feels like the front-runner here.
Who should win: Lady Gaga and Ariana Grande, “Rain on Me”
Sometimes the front-runner is there for a reason. “Rain on Me” is a very sturdy pop collaboration that does what it needs to do, and it deserves the love in this category. —Eric Skelton
Best Pop Vocal Album
Nominees: Justin Bieber (Changes), Lady Gaga (Chromatica), Dua Lipa (Future Nostalgia), Harry Styles (Fine Line), Taylor Swift (Folklore)
Who will win: Dua Lipa, Future Nostalgia
By any account, Dua Lipa’s 2020 was massive. She delivered one of the biggest albums of the year with a top ten hit that continues to rack up gaudy streaming numbers. To do all that with a dance-pop record released at the start of a global pandemic defies logic. Future Nostalgia is a safe pick in this category because of how exemplary of a pop project it is. While there are better albums nominated that take greater risks musically, there are no knocks on Dua’s album from a pop lens. Dua is performing at the Grammys on Sunday and was also part of the nominations show back in November, and we expect her to score a couple trophies on Sunday night. It’s entirely plausible we see “Don’t Start Now” or Future Nostalgia pick up some wins from her general field nominations but those categories stay unpredictable. If the Recording Academy decides to go a different direction with the bigger awards, this will be Dua’s consolation prize.
Who should win: Taylor Swift, Folklore
There are a couple of weird nuances that could cost Taylor Swift’s Folklore the Best Pop Album award despite being the best album nominated by a considerable margin. After it was released last year, there was a lot of conversation about which category it might be placed in, considering how much of a departure the project is from Taylor’s stadium-ready hits of the past. Apple Music officially marked it as her first-ever “alternative” project, a classification that makes sense considering Aaron Dessner’s (The National) heavy involvement. I’m not saying Folklore is definitely not a pop album—a conversation about what is and isn’t “pop” in 2021 could last several days. I’m saying some voters might see Folklore’s inclusion in this category more as a nod to Taylor’s overall discography than this album’s music. Despite all that, Folklore is a songwriting triumph and showcases Taylor at her very best. It won’t win but should. However, when faced between Folklore and Future Nostalgia, a project that transcends the category most people identify with “pop music,” the Recording Academy will go with Dua.
Best R&B Performance
Nominees: Jhené Aiko f/ John Legend “Lightning & Thunder,” Beyoncé “Black Parade,” Jacob Collier f/ Ty Dolla Sign and Mahalia “All I Need,” Brittany Howard “Goat Head,” Emily King “See Me”
Who will win: Beyoncé, “Black Parade”
Similar to the Song of the Year category, the Recording Academy will likely sway in Beyoncé’s direction. Bey is a lauded performer among the Grammy’s voting committees and “Black Parade” is a powerful and symbolic song. In my opinion, its placement in this category is a little questionable, though. From the vocal arrangements to the overall sound, “Black Parade” feels like more of a hip-hop record. While she may throw in a few powerful notes here and there, Beyoncé tends to rap more than she sings.
Who should win: Jhené Aiko f/ John Legend, “Lightning & Thunder”
“Lightning & Thunder,” on the other hand, is an intentional R&B song. Everything down to Jhené Aiko and John Legend’s harmonies to instrumentals meets the typical standards of R&B. It’s also worth mentioning that John Legend is a favorite among the Recording Academy, especially in regards to the R&B categories. So if came down to who is a better fit for this award, it should go to Aiko and Legend. —Jessica McKinney
Best R&B Song
Nominees: Robert Glasper f/ H.E.R. and Meshell Ndegeocello “Better Than I Imagined,” Beyoncé “Black Parade,” Tiana Major9 & EarthGang “Collide,” Chloe x Halle “Do It,” Skip Marley and H.E.R. “Slow Down”
Who will win: Chloe x Halle, “Do It”
Chloe x Halle’s “Do It” is such a hit that it deserves some shine, and will likely get just that. It’s danceable, yet smooth and effortless. It’s sexy and confident. It’s the record that started a TikTok challenge but could also be played at a regular function. And although the track failed to break into the top half of the Billboard Hot 100, it became a fan-favorite and an unofficial summer anthem for women everywhere. Even Beyoncé’s “Black Parade,” which we’ve already projected will win big this year, can’t compare.
Who should win: Chloe x Halle, “Do It”
This year, more people need to pay attention to Chloe x Halle, and it starts with them winning a Grammy. —Jessica McKinney
Best Progressive R&B Album
Nominees: Jhené Aiko (Chilombo), Chloe x Halle (Ungodly Hour), Free Nationals (Free Nationals), Robert Glasper (Fuck Yo Feelings), Thundercat (It Is What It Is)
Who will win: Jhené Aiko, Chilombo
Best Progressive R&B Album is an unusual label for this category. Even so, this win belongs to Jhené Aiko. In my opinion, Chilombo is Aiko’s best project to date. The album stays true to the singer’s brand, creating a sensory experience for its listeners. This is not to downplay the other project’s in this category. Chloe x Halle’s Ungodly Hour was a great sophomore album for the sister duo. But Chilombo transcended traditional R&B guidelines.
Who should win: Jhené Aiko, Chilombo
While it might be an underdog in the Album of the Year category, Aiko certainly deserves to be recognized in R&B for what she was able to accomplish. —Jessica McKinney
Best R&B Album
Nominees: Ant Clemons (Happy 2 Be Here), Givēon (Take Time), Luke James (To Feel Love/D), John Legend (Bigger Love), Gregory Porter (All Rise)
Who will win: John Legend, Bigger Love
John Legend is an incredibly talented vocalist behind some of the best music of our generation. He’s cultivated a wide-spanning audience, and carries himself with a dignity that makes him the perfect choice for any vessel of the establishment looking for a performer, spokesperson, or award-winner who will carry the trophy with grace. Perhaps that’s why Legend is one of the Grammy Committee’s many trustees. Combine all that marketability with the warm reception to his Bigger Love album, and he looks like a safe choice for the Best R&B Album.
Who should win: Giveon, Take Time
First off, we’d be remiss to ignore that the Grammy committee played itself by not nominating a single nonmale in this category. There are hoards of R&B fans who will tell you that Brandy, Summer Walker, Kehlani, or Summer Walker should have won this award—but not one of them were even nominated. Do better, Grammy committee. Of the nominations available, we like Giveon. His Take Time project was one of the year’s most beloved R&B works, as his refined baritone and introspective lyrics provided a strong soundtrack for the pensive ass quarantine period. For that, he deserves the nod. —Andre Gee
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