Image via Complex Original
It's 2015: time to take out the crystal ball, the magic eight ball, or some other spherical predictive device. What will happen in the world of hip-hop this year? Will Beyoncé and Jay Z have another child? "Signs point to yes"!
But surely more is on the way. 2014 was full of surprises, with talented new artists popping up from across the map, and a lanky Australian unexpectedly becoming hip-hop's most successful rookie. In our brave new future, who will sink and who will swim? What will hip-hop sound like? Who will run the summer? And how will we discover new artists?
Never fear: our predictive powers are an exact science.* Allow Complex to prepare you for the days to come with 10 predictions for the year 2015.
*Note: not an exact science.
Ty Dolla $ign will have a big year.
Ty Dolla $ign already had a pretty big year, but his album Free TC is going to take a lot of people by surprise. Ty is a much more talented artist than people realize; had he arrived in the late '90s, he'd be in a superproducer lane alongside Timbaland and the Neptunes. A songwriter, producer, multi-instrumentalist, punchline pro, and singer, the only thing that really stands in his way is his tendency to skirt the boundaries of good taste in a social media era where that sort of thing is risky. Still, his undeniable musical talents suggest he'll do more than redeem flagging Atlantic roster artists.
Mustard-wave will continue to dominate for the foreseeable future, and imitators will play with interesting variations on the Mustard sound.
There's no question that DJ Mustard ran 2014. His momentum picked up toward the end of 2013 with records like T-Pain's “Up Down” and Kid Ink's “Show Me.” But with the release of YG's My Krazy Life early the following year, he set the tone for a takeover similar to his idol Lil Jon's a decade earlier.
Of course, one of the biggest songs of Mustard's summer wasn't actually produced by DJ Mustard—although his name is often mentioned. Iggy Azalea's “Fancy” announced that Mustard's intuitive move to uptempo club records was a smart one. As did “Fight Night,” the most successful Migos record to date, one that reiterated that Mustard didn't need to be behind the wheel for his sound to take off—even in Atlanta.
As the sound has evolved, thanks also to producers like Nic Nac, who have added a textured melodic lushness to the formula, it's become evident that we're about to embark on yet another annum of uptempo club classics, as the sound spreads to other producers.
Chicago's Bop sound will follow Mustard—although, like Mustard's sound, it will infiltrate slowly at first.
Mustard will run 2015 just like he did 2014. But the next sound coming on his tail isn't popping out of Atlanta, it's popping out of Chicago. The Bop production style—particularly the beats of producer Mudd Gang—is a fresh, uptempo sound easily adaptable to R&B and hip-hop. It sounds like nothing else on earth—just listen to “Fiesta” or (especially) “Jockin” (above)—yet could easily be adapted to rhythmic radio. If it happens, it will be a slow rise—but you just need one “Rack City” domino to set things off.
2015 will continue the trend of one-hit viral stars from unexpected places—even though the old generation will release some albums.
It was a talking point in 2014 that the lack of big-name rap records allowed a bunch of new stars like Young Thug to step into the spotlight. But in 2015…they're going to keep grabbing the spotlight, whether an aging generation wants them to or not. Sure, the big names like Nas and Jay Z will still drop records, and due to the click-driven Internet culture, they'll get a plenty of the coverage. But a new generation is ready to stake their claim to hip-hop and isn't interested in paying deference to the old icons.
2014's one(or two)-hit wonders will sink and swim.
Dej Loaf: Although her debut tape was a bit of a snooze outside of singles “Try Me” and “Blood,” she's a strong rapper and sounds refreshingly great on hooks. There's room for growth, and the hype hasn't been overwhelming. There's a bubbling proto-scene in Detroit, and should an artist or two manage to pull something off, she would be well-placed to profit from a burgeoning moment as well.
Bobby Shmurda: Though his follow-up singles had yet to really catch on—some might argue Robby Rebel actually had the stronger follow-ups—there's a good chance he would have figured something out eventually. Unfortunately, it looks like he's probably not going to get the chance because if you get caught with a gun in New York, you're almost definitely going to do time.
iLOVEMAKONNEN: To the mainstream, he remains something of a novelty. Maintains an invested audience of trendy cosmopolitans for as long as trendy cosmopolitans are liable to remain invested. Better him than OB O'Brien.
Snootie Wild: Clearly talented, in a go-for-the-throat shameless pop sense, and related to fucking Arthur Lee from the '70s rock band Love. That's cool as fuck. Would have been huge in 2004. Just give him a Grammy already.
Fetty Wap: Doesn't seem liable to become a huge star—he's too close in sound to a variety of similar-styled artists—but meets the hooks and bars requirements of a 2015 rapper. Will probably build into a steady trap radio regular a la Young Dolph and Shy Glizzy.
K-Camp: Always seems to end up on good tracks with good artists. Has good taste or an incredible plug at the label. Already technically has a bubbling 2015 hit. Can't recall what he sounds like, though, or a lyric he's written that wasn't a part of a chorus.
Father: Will remain an indie/college rap darling, which is not a bad place to be; hopefully continues to build his style step by step.
OG Maco: His ol' switcheroo—guys, I'm a serious rapper—was contrived. Will pull another switcheroo—I can still yell in 2015—by the end of the year.
O.T. Genasis: Best of luck, man.
More acts follow Taylor Swift's lead and quit Pandora and Spotify.
These days people buy cheap or steep, with little in between. Middle class, middle brow, it's all disappearing. Spotify is trying to have it all. Taylor Swift leaving was a tipping point; new artists will distribute their work for free through SoundCloud or the new YouTube service, established artists return to iTunes, Spotify ends up tailoring (no pun intended) to old catalog artists.
Chance the Rapper returns to….
No one is really sure what to expect from Chance the Rapper, but he's solidified a real fanbase, and everyone is waiting with baited breath on his return. Will he drop a hit record? Will he drop an after school special? Will he fly into outer space with some psychedelic experimental indie shit? I'd bet on none of the three.
Major labels will not die in 2015.
The major label will not die because there's still money to be made. First, there are always poor artists willing to treat them like a Payday Loan spot. People can talk trash about Young Thug for agreeing to sign to one, but success, to him, was never a guarantee. Secondly, the old build-a-hit A&R model still works. Iggy Azalea's “Fancy” is a perfect example. So yeah, there'll be at least one more year of major labels.
Female artists will continue to make up a larger proportion of the rookie artists than they have in years past.
Women have never had a stronger voice within hip-hop as they have recently. From Snow tha Product to Dreezy, from Lil Debbie to Tink, from Azealia Banks to Def Loaf to Junglepussy to Honey Cocaine to Katie Got Bandz to Sasha Go Hard, women have claimed more space in the genre over the past few years than ever before. That number will continue to grow.
You will not be able to escape the visage of Mac Miller.
He just did a $10 million deal with Warner despite already being one of the most successful independent rap artists ever. There's no way he's not being angled as a mega-pop star. As to his long-term odds, I couldn't call it. But it will say a lot about the direction of hip-hop going forward. He doesn't have the world's most distinctive style, but how much will that matter in 2015? If Macklemore was the breakout star of 2013, and Iggy Azalea was the breakout star of 2014, could Mac Miller reach their heights in 2015?
