Image via Complex Original
As you may have heard, Drake’s third album, Nothing Was the Same, hit stores today. There is no question in anyone’s mind as to whether or not it will top the charts. Most people seem to think it will sell somewhere in the range of 750,000-800,000 copies its first week out. But, being a sort-of well-informed person when it comes to the music industry, and also the type of person who roots for a big story, I am thinking the world is in for a surprise next week when the final tally is announced. I think Drake is about to do a million—and become the first rap artist to accomplish the feat since his boss and mentor, Lil Wayne, did it with Tha Carter III in 2008.
Drake himself has refused to make a guess. "Best advice I ever got is: No expectations lead to no disappointments," he said to MTV. "So I have no expectations."
That is truly wise. And a very good way to live one's life.
But this isn't my life, we're talking about, it's Drake's. So I don't mind indulging this unhealthy urge. It just seems like this is one of those things where the signs are all coming together. It’s in the stars, or fate or that Octopus in Germany who kept predicting the outcome of all the World Cup soccer games. I’ve got a feeling about this. (In fact, I just bet my boss, Noah, a dollar—ONE AMERICAN DOLLAR!—that Drake was going to do it.) For many reasons, some of which follow. Here are my 10 Reasons Why Drake Will Sell A Million Records First Week.
The album's two lead singles both went top ten.
"Started From the Bottom" hit No. 6 on the Billboard's Hot 100 singles chart at the end of February. "Hold On, We're Going Home" is at No. 9 this week.
Kanye came on stage at OVO Fest.
When Kanye West flew up to Toronto this summer and joined Drake onstage at the OVO Fest, it read like a coronation. As if Kanye was saying, "All right, man. I'm going left. Jay is a year younger than Kool G Rap. Lil Wayne is on the wane. The lane is open. The pole position. It's all yours."
The OVO Owl is an excellent logo.
Do you think it was a mistake, Drake choosing an owl for his logo, his power animal? You don't think it might have something to do with enticing 30-gazillion crazed Harry Potter fans—the kids who go all bonker's for Harry's winged, mail-delivering familiar, Hedwig? The kids who have now aged perfectly into the dead center of the 18-26-year-old record-buying demographic sweet spot? Come now, you know Drake better than that.
Kendrick's "Control" verse made the "King of Rap" a trending topic.
The story has written itself over the summer. Drake is about to take over the world. The next episode will come with Kendrick's next solo album: Can he wrest the crown from the new king's clutches?
Google Trends and Twitter numbers suggest if not him...who?
Check the stats. Drake's got social media on lock. How many people are on Facebook again, how many on Twitter? Because Drake's got 30,755,484 of the former and 12,333,270 of the latter, as of press time.
Every song really does sound like Drake featuring Drake.
You know what even kinda sounds like Drake featuring Drake? "Holy Grail."
He has gotten exactly 369,000 paying-fans more popular in the last two years.
His last album, Take Care, came out two years ago and sold 631,000 copies it's first week. A careful scientific analysis of the success Drake's has found on his guest appearances on other artists' hits since then—songs like "Stay Schemin'," "No Lie," "Pop That," "Fuckin' Problems" and "No New Friends"—reveals that his collaborative efforts have gained him precicely 369,000 new, record-buying fans.
"Hold On, We're Going Home" is the only song on the radio that sounds like 2013.
Have you listened to the radio much lately, like xoomed around from station to station on a long car drive or something? It's a surreal, and extremely divergent experience. On the one hand, you've got Lady Gaga and Zedd and flying through the stars on their techno-blip synthesizer spaceships and dudes like Future and Rich Homie Quan warping out their voices with autotune til they sound like crazy underwater robots from a Jetson's-syle future-world. The all that 1940's stomp-around-the-campfire banjo folk from the Mumfords and ther Lumineers and all their mustacheod, suspenders-wearing friends. The you got Daft Punk and Robin Thicke pretending to be stepping their platform heels and flares into the Paladium in 1978. And Eminem: wearing a Kangol and tacksuit, blasting Rick-Rubin beats out of his vintage Helix boombox like it's 1985 again.
But there has been one song lately, that sounds distinctly, perfectly of the now. With its soft, warm key chords balancing the cold slap of it's live drums and chilled-out rythmic track, and Drake crooning soft and sad and sweet, leading you out to the car, "Hold On, We're Going Home," is 2013 sonically personified.
It's his family's destiny.
Drake's uncle Larry's Band Graham Central Station's third album, released in 1975, was called Ain't No 'Bout-A-Doubt It. That album includes a cover of Ann Peeble's 1973 classic "I Can't Stand the Rain"—a song which, on the original recording, features Drake's OTHER uncle, Mabon "Teenie" Hodges, on the guitar. 'Boutlessly, this is a sign.
Drake said so.
"I think I'm selling a million first week, man, I guess I'm an optomist," said Drake on his megahit remix of Migos' "Versace." Hearing the confidence in his flow, keeping in mind how many of his dreams he's achieved in the five short years since he came on the scene, is it wise to doubt him?
