2021 NFL Mock Draft: Predicting Round 1 of the NFL Draft (V4)

Dec 22, 2020; Boca Raton, Florida, USA; Brigham Young Cougars quarterback Zach Wilson (1) scrambles under pressure for UCF Knights linebacker Eriq Gilyard (10) and linebacker Tatum Bethune (15) during the first half at FAU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

2020 Stats: 3,153 YD, 24 TD, 5 INT

The phrase “best prospect since Andrew Luck” has been tired for a while, but stylistically, Lawrence is reminiscent of Luck. He’s massive, athletic, has a huge arm with very good accuracy, and is a smart player. He looks for chunk plays effectively and routinely challenges tight passing windows.

The Jaguars aren’t as bad off as most top-picking teams in terms of roster quality. Urban Meyer’s staff can build around some solid young players on both sides of the ball. Sticking Lawrence on an offense with James Robinson and DJ Chark and it’s reasonable to expect a jump in 2021. 

2020 Stats: 2,100 YD, 22 TD, 6 INT

The Jets have been taking calls for Sam Darnold for good reason. New coach Robert Saleh doesn’t want to be picking this high ever again, and this quarterback class is special. He’ll have his pick between either Ohio State’s Justin Fields and BYU’s Zach Wilson.

Fields would be the top quarterback in most classes and projections with him sliding beyond the top few picks are misguided. He’s extremely athletic and smart, with a plus arm and great accuracy. Wilson is the hot name and is worthy of the pick too, but Fields earns the nod for being the better player in structure. 

2020 Stats: 28 REC, 591 YD, 4 TD

Miami might not be making this pick at No. 3, but expectations are still for them to grab a top receiver with their first pick. The offense badly needs at least one impact receiver and a running back, and this is the perfect class to address both spots. The Dolphins should prioritize speed and playmaking for Tua Tagovailoa’s development.

The most explosive receiver overall in this loaded group is Waddle. Built like Tyreek Hill, he’d inject the next-level burners this offense sorely lacks, and has more athletic upside than both Ja’Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith. 

Atlanta may look at this as an opportunity to get their quarterback of the future since new coach Arthur Smith doesn’t want to pick this high again. Another factor is the lack of fits for the team here. Atlanta needs an edge defender or safety, maybe a cornerback if they don’t believe Kendall Sheffield will take a jump next year. There’s not a star at those positions who truly stands out at No. 4.

Landing a top-tier quarterback prospect who can sit for a year or two is still a good investment. Ryan’s expensive contract and age will soon be problematic if Atlanta doesn’t make the playoffs in 2021. Wilson is a strong-armed, athletic, has moxy and playmaking ability. He has to play within structure better and become more accurate on short passes through mechanical adjustments but the upside is high.

Sat Out 2020 Season

The Bengals have their franchise quarterback, but they have to keep him healthy. Burrow was hit 79 times, and sacked 47 times in his 10 games.

That leads us to Sewell. The athletic tackle is excellent and pairing him with 2020 first-rounder Jonah Williams would give Burrow a bookend to build around for the next decade. Some may prefer a tackle with more length, but Sewell has earned his projection as an excellent pass-protector and high-impact run blocker.

Missing out on Sewell and taking a big-time pass rusher or cornerback wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. This is a great tackle draft and those positions are just as valuable for a bad team like this. 

Sat Out 2020 Season

Now that the Carson Wentz saga is over, the Eagles must decide if Jalen Hurts is their future or not. He was drafted to be a cheap backup to Wentz, and his limited playing time last year showed some potential, but nothing to bank on. The Eagles could trade up or see if a top-4 quarterback falls to them.

Since Trey Lance is a project who needs time to develop like Hurts, the Eagles can add a top receiver to a roster that’ll greatly benefit from one. Adding a dominant catch-point force like Chase to a Jalen Reagor and Travis Fulgham duo will give them an exciting young trio. 

2020 Heisman Trophy Winner

The Lions were able to land a ton for Matthew Stafford, a veteran who couldn’t help this team overcome the hump and be a consistent winner. Jared Goff is also limited, but really good when kept clean from pressure. This allows the Lions to play the value game with this pick.

There’s not a great edge-rusher in this range, so that leaves taking a right tackle or wide receiver. Marvin Jones could be departing this offseason and Kenny Golladay may only be on the tag so the Lions should naturally add a receiver.

Landing DeVonta Smith here would be a great pick. Smith is terrific at tracking balls mid-air and creating after the catch. His body type is uncommon, and his biggest fans will point towards Marvin Harrison and Isaac Bruce as comparables. I see a lot of Calvin Ridley, and even he’d be a huge addition to this offense. 

2020 Stats: 149 YD, 2 TD, 1 INT

The Panthers made a big play for Matthew Stafford, including this pick and Teddy Bridgewater for the veteran. That leaves them praying for Deshaun Watson, but that seems unlikely.

Bridgewater is a great quarterback to have in place while preparing the raw but super talented Trey Lance. Or the Panthers can raffle him off to Chicago or Washington if they choose, and have Lance compete with a lesser veteran in hopes of helping him long-term. 

There’s a lot of big-time players on the board if the Panthers decide to focus elsewhere. This is one of the major pivot points of the class. 

2020 Stats: 8 SACK, 21 SOLO, 1 INT

Denver has a number of issues to address. They missed on Stafford and weren’t interested in Wentz, so a low-cost free agent to compete with Drew Lock makes sense. 

Cornerback would make sense with AJ Bouye jettisoned and this is a good class for it. Getting another edge rusher is the next priority, especially since Von Miller is getting older and Bradley Chubb needs to stay healthy. Until Miller’s contract situation is cleared up, he remains in rumors as a trade or cut candidate, and therefore edge would be Denver’s most pressing need.

Miami’s Phillips broke out for the Hurricanes this past year after being an elite recruit for UCLA a few years ago. He’s versatile enough for Vic Fangio to love him and get the most out of him in Year 1. He’s the best pure pass-rusher in the class. 

2020 Stats: 1 INT, 12 PD

The Cowboys made a huge mistake when they let Byron Jones walk last offseason. The cornerbacks left on the roster are all replaceable, and have contributed to why Dallas was such a disappointment last season. They have tough decisions to make on how to proceed forward with this staff, Dak Prescott’s contract situation, and how to manage an expensive roster after wasting a year.

Adding an impact cornerback is tough to do, and the last time Dallas picked in the top 10, they could’ve had Jalen Ramsey instead of Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is a good back, but clearly they made the wrong decision. They can somewhat rectify their need for secondary help by adding Surtain.

Surtain is adept in both man and zone, and adds needed length and playmaking to this unit. 

2020 Stats: 36 REC, 472 YDS, 2 TD

The Giants could go a number of ways with this pick, including addressing the offensive or defensive line. General manager Dave Gettleman has specifically mentioned getting more playmakers as a goal of his, and this is the class to accomplish this. Daniel Jones is entering a make-or-break year so giving him another big-time weapon will help prove himself.

Bateman made waves as he ran a sub-4.4 40-yard dash last week. The 6’2”, 210-pounder can play outside or in the slot, making him a wonderful compliment to Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram. The Giants can still add a buy-low free agent receiver like Rashard Higgins or Josh Reynolds. 

Sat Out 2020 Season

The 49ers are one of the other teams that would love to upgrade at quarterback but seem unlikely to do so. Jimmy Garoppolo is good enough to win with if he’s healthy but he needs a lot of help around him. Rebuilding this defense to become an elite unit will go a long way in accomplishing that. 

Both starting cornerbacks are free agents and it’s hard to see the team investing into to-be 33-year-old Richard Sherman, or 30-year-old Jason Verrett at a higher cap number. Allowing Emmanuel Moseley and a rookie to battle for at least one starting job makes more sense for this team to stay flexible cap-wise.

Farley is a steal at this point. He’s big, fast and physical. His upside is as high as any defender in the class. 

2020 Stats: 43 REC, 770 YD, 12 TD

It’d be tough for the Chargers to pass up on help along their offensive line for Justin Herbert, but they landed a unicorn in this mock. Florida tight end Kyle Pitts is as good as any receiver in this class if he’s viewed as an outside pass-catcher, but still retains elite value as a tight end. His insane hand strength, catch radius and movement ability for his size will make him the next Darren Waller.

He’d fit wonderfully on an offense with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. He could either replace Hunter Henry if the veteran departs via free agency, or the two could play together in a giant receiving lineup. 

Size: 6’3”, 305 LB

Minnesota could use help all over their roster so this pick is all about filling a valuable need with the best overall player. Arguably the luckiest scenario possible is Northwestern’s Rashawn Slater falls to them, which would allow them to make a decision on Riley Reiff. Either they could cut Reiff’s bloated $12 million deal or move one of the two to guard and fill two starting jobs.

Slater is an excellent technician and played his best against elite competition. His height isn’t ideal at 6’4” but from a pure blocking standpoint, he’s more refined than Sewell at this time. He’ll be a very good starting left tackle early in his career. 

2020 Stats: 4,500 YD, 41 TD, 4 INT

There’s been talk the Patriots could land Marcus Mariota via trade or free agency but it’s a sad statement he could be the best option. Even acquiring a journeyman shouldn’t stop the Patriots from pursuing an upgrade. Their lack of faith in Jarrett Stidham is justified and investing into a better rookie is needed.

Alabama’s Mac Jones is one of the toughest evaluations of the last few years. He’s accurate, smart, and confident, which makes him a higher floor player. But his lack of experience, big arm and mobility could push him even into Day 2 despite some belief he’ll go top-10. 

2020 Stats: 2 INT, 6 PD 

There’s a lot of needs on the Cardinals roster and limited money to make some of the holes disappear. It’s shocking to see general manager Steve Keim still in position after so many missed picks and signings. He and Kliff Kingsbury are facing the heat after a disappointing end to 2020.

Deciding between an edge rusher and cornerback will be a tough call, but that was made slightly easier after Arizona signed JJ Watt. Patrick Peterson looked done last year, and Dre Kirkpatrick isn’t worth his bloated salary. Getting a premier cornerback on the roster can help tremendously.

The South Carolina stud has everything needed to contribute right away. He has elite length, instincts, and ball skills.

Sat Out 2020 Season

Derek Carr entered the year on the hot seat, but he’s earned his keep for the immediate future thanks to more aggressive play. The Raiders offense has been solid despite mediocre receiver play and offensive line injuries, meaning it’s time to bolster that unit in free agency and the middle rounds of the draft. The impact players are needed on defense.

A bit of an enigma as far as positional fit and true impact level, Parsons’ value all depends on the eye of the beholder. Projecting him as an edge-rusher means he should go even higher as a developmental prospect, but as a true linebacker he’s more of a mid-first-type. Regardless, this defense will be better with him. 

2020 Stats: 2 SACK, 12 SOLO

The Dolphins could double down on Alabama playmakers by taking Najee Harris but it’s a great running back class. Waiting allows them to address the huge hole for an edge-rusher. Getting faster and more athletic at the edge spot is a must for Brian Flores.

Michigan’s Kwity Paye stands out instantly on film thanks to a blend of strength in the run game and quickness off the edge on passing plays. Miami can develop him into a major contributor without asking him to start thanks to some veteran depth. 

Size: 6’6”, 320 LB

Washington is in such a difficult spot sitting this far down in the draft. The veteran quarterback market will have all of the same names being discussed, and if Jameis Winston goes elsewhere then there’s not a potential long-term answer available. Getting a solid tackle to shore up the unit is also a must.

The Football Team hasn’t spent a first-round pick on the unit since Brandon Scherff in 2015 so it’s time to do it again. Jenkins is more physical and technical than some of the other options on the board here. Don’t confuse more pro-ready with having lower ceiling. 

2020 Stats: 70 REC, 984 YD, 10 TD

The Bears look stuck at quarterback. They have to make a move, or else explain why they’d be signing or trading for a quarterback they passed up last year like Winston or Bridgewater. Re-signing Mitch Trubisky shouldn’t be an option.

Whoever is playing quarterback will need weapons. The current roster is razor thin, and hopefully a better passer will get more out of Anthony Miller. 

Florida’s Kadarius Toney is the type of difference-maker who can save this unit with the right quarterback. Matt Nagy can be creative with he and Anthony Miller touching the ball from a variety of formations. Toney also brings much-needed speed. 

2020 Stats: 1 INT, 9 PD

Landing Wentz cost the Colts more than it probably should’ve, but they at least found an answer for the short-term. Now it’s time to solidify a good, but not great roster.

The Colts could justify drafting a receiver, but it makes more sense to sign Allen Robinson, Corey Davis, or JuJu Smith-Schuster and continue to develop Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell. That means addressing their cornerback room is a must. 

Newsome is perfect for the zone-heavy scheme. Newsome has plus ball skills and physicality. His ceiling is as high as anyone in this class. 

2020 Stats: 5 SACK, 25 SOLO, 3 FF

The Titans are a solid team, but have some tough decisions to make this offseason. Their decision to not give Corey Davis his fifth-year option looks like the wrong one, and they are faced with having to pay him with a new deal or losing him. They also could use a pass-rusher and help in the secondary.

Some of these issues can be handled before the draft. Re-signing Davis might cost Malcolm Butler and Adam Humphries, but that’s a fair trade off considering neither of those two have earned their big salaries. A second pass-rusher across from Harold Landry is going to be the other temptation depending on how the board falls.

The board has an impact edge rusher in Texas’s Ossai. The speedy playmaker dominated games for the Longhorns, and will thrive across from Landry.

2020 Stats: 25 REC, 270 YD, O TD

We’ve already given the Jets a star quarterback in Fields, and they may have another second-round pick for moving Darnold by this point, so we have to make sure the offense is set for Fields to thrive. With Breshad Perriman a free agent, Denzel Mims needs a complimentary receiver next to him.

Getting a versatile receiver will be key. Moore can play inside and outside, and return kicks on special teams. Looking at how Kansas City uses Tyreek Hill is a good blueprint on how to continue manufacturing touches for the former freshman phenom. 

Size: 6’5”, 314 LB

The Steelers had a disastrous end to the season after starting out 11-0, but the veteran roster has a lot to work with. This franchise is used to being a position of developing young players quickly thanks to cap constraints.

The Steelers have to trim their cap numbers and must deal with tackles Alejandro Villanueva and Matt Feiler as free agents. That means drafting a starter seems inevitable.

Darrisaw is super athletic and versatile. Pittsburgh’s reputation for getting young players up to speed quickly makes him a great fit here. He’ll be thrown into the fire to start right away. 

2020 Stats: 2 INT, 9 PD

Meyer has a lot of options with his second first-round pick. The Jags could take a receiver or look to bolster a defense with several needs. Going with the best overall player makes too much sense.

Getting an impactful safety to go with a big-ticket free agency signing can transform the secondary. Revamping the unit around CJ Henderson and Moehrig, a rangy safety from a talented TCU defense, can happen quickly. Re-signing Sidney Jones and landing John Johnson, for example, would elevate the unit to a great level in one off-season.  

Sat Out 2020 Season

Addressing the defense this offseason is critical for the Browns. The need for an edge rusher is huge after Olivier Vernon suffered a torn Achilles, and they could stand to pick up a cornerback in free agency. The Browns don’t have a ton of cap space to work with but they should be able to enter the draft with at least one of those, if not both, crossed off their needs.

Miami’s Rousseau is ideally built to be the second-best pass-rusher on a roster. He’s big, athletic and a great finisher. He looks more like a snap jumper than freak athlete, much like Vernon’s been throughout his career, but there’s still great value in finding the right complimentary piece.

Baltimore has a big need for a receiver, so adding both a veteran and a high-end rookie only makes sense. Their cap situation makes it imperative that a contributor be found immediately. A rising name is Ole Miss’ Moore.

Moore is a terror from the slot, boasting great size and pure speed. He’ll give Lamar Jackson and this offense needed consistency and explosiveness. They’ll have to get creative to land a reliable veteran with their cap limitations but Moore at least gives a boost to one starting spot. 

2020 Stats: 8.5 SACK, 22 SOLO

Everyone expected Drew Brees to retire after what was a tough end to last year but he’s back in the fold for 2021. That means New Orleans will retool as much as they can with their severe salary cap situation. Relying on the draft for contributors will be critical.

Adding an impact pass-rusher will be a priority since Trey Hendrickson will depart in free agency. Speedy Ojulari can play outside linebacker or drop a hand and get after the quarterback. His versatility and upside makes him highly attractive for a rotational role early.

2020 Stats: 48 REC, 731 YD, 0 TD

Help is needed around Aaron Rodgers after a disappointing end to their season. We saw enough dropped passes and lack of open receivers against Tampa Bay to know this team needs to go all-in this off-season. Failing to sign a veteran due to cap space means that the draft offers the answer.

A downfield presence like Marshall gets the nod in this mock. The 6’3”, 200-pound speedster has had two great seasons at LSU, and is a big-play threat every pass. He’s already capable of winning on vertical routes and everything that plays off go routes, like curls, comebacks, and dig routes, meaning he can play right away.

2020 Stats: 251 ATT, 1,466 YD, 26 TD

The Bills had a fantastic breakout season thanks to Josh Allen’s improvement and the addition of Stefon Diggs. The defense has taken a step back and there’s a huge need for a cornerback across from Tre’Davious White, but ensuring the offense remains a strength is critical. Allen needs competent blocking and the run game can’t be forgotten as part of their identity.

Taking an offensive lineman would make sense but the running backs are also an issue for the unit. Najee Harris is an awesome talent and able to fix the lack of explosiveness in the Bills’ backfield. Simply, Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are too limited to overcome any type of disadvantageous situation they face.

Harris is a great all-around playmaker. The Bills can ask less of Allen in 2021 with Harris in the backfield to take pressure off the passing game.

Size: 6’4”, 315 LB

We finally saw the weakness with the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Injuries finally stifled the wonderfully talented offense, and Tampa Bay pinned their ears back as they chased after Mahomes all game long. The Chiefs need to inject several young, cheap and healthy bodies onto the roster.

Getting USC’s Vera-Tucker this late would be an insane value. He can play tackle, guard or center and make an impact as a rookie. The Chiefs would be able to revamp the unit without forcing the rookie to be a saving grace Day 1 because their injured starters will be back in 2021.

2020 Stats: 5.5 SACK, 22 SOLO, 1 INT, 1 FF

The rich get even richer. Assuming that Chris Godwin and Shaquil Barrett are back in 2021, the Bucs just need to continue augmenting the roster. Adding a top-tier running back is tempting if Leonard Fournette leaves, but keeping the trenches strong is key for Tom Brady to keep winning Super Bowls.

Ndamukong Suh and William Gholston are aging and need depth behind him, if not outright replace one of the veterans due to cap reasons. Iowa’s Nixon is an explosive interior presence who can replicate Suh’s game at a fraction of the cost.