The NBA tips off tonight, with an exciting double header that’s sure to surpass the fireworks of Jimmy Butler’s first practice with Minnesota. The game is better than the drama!
In the Eastern Conference, the Celtics and Sixers renew an Eastern Conference rivalry that hasn’t been seen since Dr. J was throwing hands with Larry Bird. Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, and whatever Markelle Fultz is now will be underdogs against a Celtics team that hasn’t had this much talent since Ubuntu, or the ‘86 squad that went 40-1 at home. Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Al Horford is the best starting talent outside the Bay, and Terry Rozier might be better than a third of the starting point guards in the Association.
The only other teams that matter in the East are Toronto and its charismatic new wing, Kawhi Leonard, and Milwaukee with new coach, Mike Budenholzer, and a yoked Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Raptors are in the same stratosphere as the Celtics in terms of talent, the myriad of long wing combinations new Raptors coach Nick Nurse can roll out will have NBA Twitter quadruple guessing him every chance they get. Mike Budenholzer just has to be better than Jason Kidd, which he could do if he stayed home (Joe Prunty went 21-16 for Lew Alcindor’s sake!). The rest of the East will be fun for fanatics and ignored by casual fans.
In the West, we’ve got the Warriors (Draymond yawn), the Rockets—stop pretending the loss of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute drops them; although, Jeff Bzdelik’s retirement might—followed by at least eight other teams that could host a first-round playoff game in the East. Yet again, like it’s been since Biggie and ‘Pac were still here, the west coast is the best coast.
Utah could give Houston and Golden State a run for the top seed. No, we don’t live in Salt Lake City. Rudy Gobert is what Dwight Howard was when Stan Van Gundy kept him in line, and Gobert isn’t a Diabetic-in-training walking fart joke. He’s a cultured Frenchman who has no qualms getting dunked on, so long as that same player tires it again.
The Thunder with Paul George locked up long-term and Andre Roberson coming back at some point, figure to be in the mix so long as Russell Westbrook doesn’t murder Dennis Schroder for taking a three late in a game and the shot clock above 15. “I learned it by watching you,” he’ll tell him in the locker room later.
Then there’s Denver, with Paul Millsap hopefully set to play the year, and Nikola Jokic set to titillate NBA Titter fanboys who read Bill James crime fiction for fun. We’re almost five teams deep in the West and we’ve forgotten the biggest storyline of the off-season and possibly the season.
The Lakers are making the playoffs. Anyone who writes otherwise is highly sus. LeBron James and four of your best friends would still make the playoffs, even in a loaded conference. He basically made the NBA Finals and took Game 1 off the Warriors (yeah, we’re giving it to him) with a similarly constructed team around him.
We can’t forget the Spurs, even if the rest of the NBA has, or the Blazers, who finished third in the West last year, their fans want to remind you. They also finished just two games from the No. 9 seed, which their fans seem to always forget. We haven’t even spoken on MVP candidate Anthony Davis and his Pelicans, who swept those superb Blazers in shocking fashion last April.
Luka Doncic and old man Dirk Nowitzki will be fun in Dallas, and the Suns have some kids, big and small, who should be entertaining. Maybe Marc Gasol and a healthy Mike Conley can restore the Grizzlies to the middle of the playoff race. October is nice for what? The NBA of course.
If you didn’t get that reference, then we’ll get out of our feelings and let you know we added an extra wrinkle to this year’s preview. In honor of October’s Very Own, we summarized all 30 squads according to the most appropriate Drake lyric we could find. Started from the bottom, now we’re ready to unwrap meaningful basketball.
Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
And even if the team was religious with it
I can't really see another squad tryna' cross us, naw
“No Tellin’”
All the Irish-American fans in Beantown can appreciate the Drizzy bravado, but it’s not the usual empty boast. This squad is strutting into the season like the favorites they are to come out of the East. Their best player is saying all the right things about his future; They possess the perfect complementary max player, Al Horford, who damn near ran Joel Embiid off the court in the playoffs last year. Oh yeah, 2017 All-Star Gordon Hayward is back, too, as is the guy—Marcus Smart—most likely to snuff J.R. Smith after a game.
Key Player: Kyrie Irving
He’s not the selection because there’s only a handful in the history of the league at his level of dropping buckets. But Uncle Drew holds the reins for an offense that—after last spring’s run to within a game of the NBA Finals—might have too many options. How he distributes, and how often he goes it alone, will go a long way towards whether they play in June this season.
Key Addition: Gordon Hayward
If he returns to what he was in Utah the year before he signed in Boston, then the Celtics will have the most talent in the Eastern Conference. It won’t be close, either. And even if he doesn’t, they still might. Gordon can play off the ball, he can initiate the pick-and-roll when Kyrie needs a breather, and if fully healthy, he’s the big wing the Celtics need to matchup against an athletic Toronto side.
Key Portion of the Schedule: March 3-11 (Rockets, at Warriors, at Kings, at Lakers, at Clippers)
The West Coast swing is key for the top teams in the East, and it gets harder when you tip against the Rockets before taking off on the team charter. It’s also a good way for teams to bond. The Kings will be a nice respite, but the Lakers might be fighting for their playoff lives at that point, and the Clippers could be an underrated sleeper in the West.
Major Key: Health
Kyrie is particularly injury prone and Hayward’s setback over the summer—when he needed a second surgery on his repaired ankle—isn’t a great sign for a full recovery. If Stevens feels it’s necessary to play Horford at the five a ton to secure the No. 1 seed, he could be banged up come playoff time. The Celtics are 10 deep with Smart, Terry Rozier, Marcus Morris, and Aron Baynes filling out an elite second five, so Brad Stevens can’t afford to Tom Thibodeau his starters, even if they beg for it.
Brooklyn Nets
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Had to go and hit reset, now we here
“8 Out of 10”
The Nets went from an aging, dilapidated roster that single-handedly put Boston in a position to contend for the next half decade, to one with some young talent—GM Sean Marks may love Caris LeVert so much, he actually prevented Brooklyn from acquiring Jimmy Butler—that’s gonna continue to lose basketball games.
Key Player: D’Angelo Russell
DAR wasn’t awful last season, but he connects on less than 33 percent of his 3-pointers, and he’s only slightly above-average in the pick-and-roll or in isolation, which made up more than half of all his play types that ended in a shot, foul, or turnover. He’s gotta prove the hype when he was the second pick out of Ohio State, and it’s a make-or-break season entering his second year as a full-time Net. LeVert is waiting in the crosshairs even if coach Kenny Atkinson is playing them together.
Key Addition: Ed Davis
A respected locker room presence Portland was forced to let walk for a cheap $4.4 million deal because Zach Collins has to get run. He’s got an elite rebounding awareness, particularly on the offensive end, and a decent defensive presence around the rim. Jarrett Allen should be a sponge in the presence of the lefty. There’s a reason Damian Lillard tweeted this after Davis signed in Brooklyn:
— Damian Lillard (@Dame_Lillard) July 1, 2018
Key Portion of the Schedule: Oct. 20-28 (at Indiana, at Cleveland, at New Orleans, Golden State)
It’s early in the season, and we’ll see how they fare against a likely playoff team in the East, a less-likely playoff team in the West, a new cellar-dweller, and perhaps the finest assemblage of talent in NBA history. We’re marking the schedule early in the season, so fans find out how much Atkinson’s run-and-gun system is really improving.
Major Key: In the summer of 2019, Brooklyn will own their first-round pick. It’s the first time that’s happened since 2013, when they made that disaster of a trade with Boston. Everyone seems high on Marks' and Atkinson’s love for pace and 3-pointers. Now they actually need to win some games.
New York Knicks
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Started out doin' college shows, Calipari flow
Then I popped like you never seen
“Can't Have Everything”
They’ve held off on going after Jimmy Butler, and their draft pick looked fantastic in Las Vegas during summer league action (we point this out knowing full well NBA Summer League action doesn’t mean a thing, but it’s better Kevin Knox played well then poorly). And the Knicks aren’t rushing Kristaps Porzingis back in the lineup as he comes back from an ACL tear.
Key Player: Kristaps Porzingis
He’s a two-way force that teams dream about landing in the draft, but he’ll be useless if the knee isn’t sound and they fail to put the right players around him. Whether that means Kevin Durant, or Kyrie Irving, or Jimmy Butler this summer, or some overseas talent doesn’t really matter. The Knicks need to put players around KP that magnify the Unicorn or complement it.
Key Addition: Kevin Knox
If you’re looking for a player analogy that no one reading this will understand Knox is similar to Dave DeBusschere (Google him, kids), in that he can shoot off the pass, and he’s long and mobile, but he’s not gonna jump out of the gym or consistently initiate the offense. For people who didn’t watch championship-winning Knicks basketball (so anyone under 70) he’s an Otto Porter, but without the shooting touch. He’s been a dud in the pre-season, but the 19-year-old is capable of playing both forward positions and could end up as a solid starter on a playoff team. The Knicks are a couple seasons from that, but he’s a good selection at No. 9. Hopefully Knicks fans temper their expectations.
Key Portion of the Schedule: March 3-9 (at Los Angeles Clippers, at Sacramento Kings, at Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings)
This will have been over a year since Porzingis tore his ACL, so if he suits up this season, it’s likely around the timeframe when it would happen. The opponents are all weak; although the traveling could be an issue if he were to make a debut of sorts.
Major Key: The long game’s importance after so many short game failures
Don’t win too much and don’t bring KP back at all if there’s even the slightest chance he tweaks his knee. Keep James Dolan away from the team to improve their collective juju, but absolutely give Charles Oakley free reign to talk with players in the locker room.
Philadelphia 76ers
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Finally got my mind in a free state
N***** tried to serve me up a cheesesteak
I gave them back a clean plate
“Can't Have Everything”
Fans are no longer trusting the process, they’re trusting the process truster. After the NBA implemented an insecure, or naively espoused, son of NBA royalty, they unsuccessfully lobbied the mentor—Daryl Morey—of the process mastermind to take over, the Sixers now have Elton Brand as a GM. Your guess is as good as ours.
Key Player: Joel Embiid
Lots of questions to process about Philadelphia’s best two-way player: Can he get in better shape, the type of conditioning that doesn’t see him sucking wind chasing Al Horford in the spring? Will he stay healthy, always a caveat when talking about the most dominating big in the league today? Will someone finally clown him on social media? We don’t know the answers, but no one will entertain you more trying as you try and find the answers.
Key Addition: Markelle Fultz
Yes, we know he played last season and you want to hear about rookie Zhaire Smith (he’s a rookie in Philly, so he’s recovering), or perpetually dinged up Wilson Chandler (he’s dinged up), but Fultz was a husk of the player they drafted No. 1 out of Washington in 2017. So, they’re getting a full year of Fultz this time around. At least they hope they are. Fultz’s assimilation is as abrupt as if he was still a rookie; Brett Brown switched him and J.J. Redick in the starting group, and while they might switch back, Brown is purposefully breaking up the most successful starting five in basketball last season. If Fultz continues to get scared off the arc by bozos like Mark Cuban, the paint is gonna get pretty cramped around Embiid and a slashing Dario Saric because no one is guarding Ben Simmons out there.
Key Portion of the Schedule: Feb. 5-12 (Raptors, Nuggets, Lakers, Celtics)
They travel to New York to play the Knicks before the break, but all four of these teams are predicted to make the playoffs, and the Celtics and Raptors are Philly’s rivals.
Major Key: Outside shooting
You can’t play two perimeter players at the same time for long if defenses don’t respect their outside shot. You saw it last year in the Boston series when Simmons was taken out of his element as Embiid was run ragged chasing around high screens. Something has to give, and it’s likely Redick is back in the starting lineup.
Toronto Raptors
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Come live all your dreams out at OVO
We gon’ make sure you get your bread and know the ropes
I get a ring and I bring it home like I’m Cory Joe
"Charged Up"
Corey Joseph was traded to the Pacers in 2017, but the same sentiment applies because the player who won Finals MVP when Joseph got his ring in San Antonio, is now a Raptor. So hopefully—in conjunction with LeBron’s move out West—we’re saved from the hokey histrionics that have tended to infect #RTZ the last few years.
Key Player: Kawhi Leonard
He’s an MVP candidate when healthy and engaged. He seems to be both so far in Toronto, but the stink of how things ended in San Antonio won’t wear off until he proves he’s back to his 2016 MVP level. If he is, prepare to be bombarded with over-excited phlegm from Raps fans trying not to choke on their glee.
Key Addition: Kawhi Leonard
We could have put Danny Green here just to mix it up and remind defenses he still commands an engaged defender when he’s stationed beyond the arc. But Kawhi is a big addition on a team that won 59 games and the No. 1 seed in the playoffs last season. DeMar DeRozan was an All-Star, but Kawhi is at another level, a tier few ever reach and one he’ll have to assume again if the Raptors are about making their first trip to the NBA Finals. Along with Kawhi, the perimeter wings they have—OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, C.J. Miles, Green, and Leonard—can all handle the rock, switch almost everything on defense and—minus Siakam——shoot. Delon Wright is big, too, and Normal Powell, Fred VanVleet, and Kyle Lowry round out one of the deepest teams in the league.
Key Portion of the Schedule: Jan 1-6 (Jazz, at San Antonio, at Milwaukee, Indiana)
All four teams should make the playoffs and it’s unclear whether they’ll have gelled with a brand new coach and primary scorer. Kawhi’s lone trip back to the only city and team he knows will be wrenching and disorienting despite the frequent android inferences.
Major Key: Selling Kawhi
It feels like a collective effort. If every denizen in Toronto tries really hard, it’ll be 70 degrees and sunny all February, with a balmy breeze off Lake Ontario. That is not what Toronto is, but the Canadian city does have a lot going for it, including Drake, who Kawhi enjoys.
Southeast Division
Atlanta Hawks
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Sex, love, pain, baby, I be on that Tank shit
Buzz so big I could probably sell a blank disc
“Best I Ever Had”
Atlanta’s the only steadfast tank team heading into the season, even if we know Drake’s dapping the R&B singer with the line, but it makes more sense for this team than the opening verse to “HYFR.” The Hawks, with former Philly assistant Lloyd Pierce replacing Mike Budenholzer, are more liable to tank because they’re still holding their own draft pick, so expect a lot of baffling lineups late in the season if Duke sensation R.J. Barrett is slipping away—assuming the Cameron crazies don’t kidnap him for another season.
Key Player: Trae Young
The only player, or reason, to really watch the Hawks, so Atlanta better hope he stays healthy. New GM Travis Schlenk took a huge gamble by trading the pick that could’ve nabbed NBA Twitter’s favorite European player, Luka Doncic, for a guy who got Steph Curry buzz at Oklahoma and then fizzled to end the year. Young flashed some dazzling passing in Las Vegas action, right along with frustrating inconsistency with his jumper. It’ll be interesting to see him in lineups with Jeremy Lin in the backcourt, and the rest of the starters—Kent Bazemore, Taurean Green, and human pogo-stick John Collins—just move up a position. Lloyd should try and think outside the box as much as possible or else the Hawks will need to lower the cost of refreshments even more, which might just mean free beer and popcorn for anyone who wanders into State Farm arena.
TRAE YOUNG NAILS THE GO-AHEAD TRIPLE FROM THE PARKING LOT! 🎯👌👀#NBARooks#NBAPreseasonpic.twitter.com/xRstckFCr6
— NBA (@NBA) October 11, 2018
Key Addition: Jeremy Lin
While Lin has only played 37 games total the last two seasons—including just one last year before shredding his kneecap—he’s the biggest name the Hawks got in an off-season where they surrendered their elite coach and any chances they’re trying to make much noise outside of the lottery. Lin can go off in certain circumstances, and teamed with Young, that backcourt could make the Hawks fun when they’re both ripping twine.
Key Portion(s) of the Schedule: Oct. 17-21 (at Memphis, at New York and at Cleveland) and April 5 (at Orlando)
Atlanta starts their season with their first three on the road against teams that figure to feature prominently in the lottery: Memphis, New York and Cleveland. If they can start off 0-3, then they’re headed to the M1 Abrams of tank jobs. But if they fail to lose in Orlando on April 5, it might mean the Panzer 68, and a flier on a Bol Bol or Zion Williamson. It’s all about the future, which is why we’re talking college players in a season preview.
Major Key: Don’t win too many games
Yes, this is the first year where the lottery odds have flattened the top 3, so the team with the worst record no longer has the top—25 percent—chance of landing the No. 1 pick. Now, the top 3 teams will each have a 14 percent chance, with the next team only incrementally less (12.5 percent). None of this really matters though, and the best way for teams outside New York and Los Angeles—say, Atlanta—to field a competitive squad is through the draft. Sam Hinkie knew this, and so does the NBA, which is why they all-but-forced the Colangelo clan on the Sixers. Draft leveling doesn’t change that uncomfortable truism, it just delays it.
Charlotte Hornets
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Gotta deal with people straight, I got my 23's laced
It's a marathon, not a sprint, but I still gotta win the race, yeah
“Sacrifices”
A team stuck with an astronomical payroll (Bismack Biyombo is still owed $34 million, but at least it’s not Timofey Mozgov!) and zero title chances, which is what happens with a win-obsessed owner: you try to win at all costs and just get caught in the mid-tier mud. At least they’ll all be rocking some ill Js.
Key Player: Kemba Walker
He’ll be an unrestricted free agent this summer after finishing out the fourth year of his $48 million deal. Walker is hard to evaluate, but no one navigates a pick-and-roll quite like the former UConn standout. Despite how transparent Charlotte’s pick-and-roll plays have become, Walker was in the 92nd percentile in points per possession as the ball handler in those situations. He’s improved his shooting, with increases in his true shooting percentage in each of the last four seasons, including an above-average mark from deep (38.4) on eight attempts per game last season. And there are few players in the entire league with more wiggle, which is why he’s so hard to stop with a body setting screens. Walker’s made the last two All-Star teams, but at only 6’1” it’s easier to overwhelm him with size.
Key Addition: Miles Bridges
A pro-ready rookie, Bridges can stroke it from deep and rise up to remind everyone he’s a youngster. Most will do a double-take when they see Tony Parker in teal, but like Patrick Ewing in Sonics’ green and Hakeem Olajuwon in Raptors’ purple, a legend’s last uniform is the stuff of trivia, not value for a contender.
Key Portion of the Schedule: Feb. 6-14 (at Dallas, at Atlanta, at Indiana, at Orlando)
A good mix of bad and so-so, this road trip right before the All-Star break could give us an idea of where in the 5-8 range they fall for the 2019 Playoffs, or if new coach James Borrego is lamenting the lack of Gregg Popovich on the bench (maybe Tony will help).
Major Key: Identity
Can they stay healthy and carve out an identity after Steve Clifford? Their former coach had to take time off last season—similar to Ty Lue—because of sleep deprivation. Will this hit-or-miss team do the same to Borrego, or is the talent such that they just needed a change? They’re already angling to play with more shooters, starting Jeremy Lamb over Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but even if they’re firing on all cylinders and stay healthy into the spring, it’s unlikely they’d even get out of the conference semifinals. And that’s their absolute ceiling. Michael Jordan needs some new blood even with a Walker decision looming.
Miami Heat
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Years go by too fast, I can't keep track
How long did we last? I feel bad for asking
It can't end like this
“Too Good”
Dwyane Wade is back. Maybe Jimmy Butler joins him and they wrestle to the death on the hardwood for Alpha status. Everything else is a crapshoot. Wade’s time in Miami really might end with another first-round exit. Or just in early April.
Key Player: Goran Dragic (if he isn’t dealt for Jimmy)
If you’re still waiting for the All-NBA point guard from Phoenix, don’t hold your breath. But Dragic gets the nod over Josh Richardson, James Johnson, Tyler Johnson, Dion Waiters, and the rest of the crap contracts Pat Riley agreed to after a half-season of success and a TV-rights windfall.
Key Addition: Uhhhh. Hold on. Nope, no one. Maybe Jimmy Butler gets this spot if Pat Riley can smooth talk Tom Thibodeau. Or maybe we put Waiters here if he can come back from ankle surgery. For the second time in three years, the Heat didn’t draft a single rookie in June. But at least they’ve got over $52 million committed to Hassan Whiteside over the next two seasons!
Key Portion of the Schedule: April 1-9 (at Boston, Boston, at Minnesota, at Toronto, Philadelphia)
With the exception of the Timberwolves, all of these teams figure to be ahead of Miami in the standings by this point in the season, and depending on whether these teams are in a battle for a higher seed, they could face some second units and sneak up into a more favorable playoff spot themselves. Or, they’re terrible and this is part of Wade’s farewell tour in the Northeast and Canada.
Major Key: Figure out this Jimmy Butler nonsense before it’s too late
Guys don’t like to live life in a constant state of flux, where they wonder every time their agent calls if they’re gonna have to move to Minnesota. The Miami-to-Minneapolis sojourn is harsh. The fiasco in Minnesota is complicated, with Thibodeau going out of his way to make sure a deal doesn’t happen, so Riley has to be careful he doesn’t paralyze his whole team with fear before Butler can either be forgotten, or they strike a deal.
Orlando Magic
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
I don’t know why they been lyin’
But your shit is not that inspirin’
“The Language”
The Magic haven’t had an identity since Dwight Howard’s schtick didn’t elicit eye rolls from all involved. That lack of a distinctive trait bonding the team together—aside from a preponderance of bigs—has translated on the court too, where they’ve failed to win more than 35 games, or string together a consistent coach since the Notorious SVG exposed Howard in that memorable media session. If you don’t know what we mean, that’s because it happened centuries ago in Internet years.
Key Player: Aaron Gordon
He shot 54 percent from three in five October games last season and became the de-facto feature subject in that timeframe. He came back down to earth in November and had plummeted to 20 percent in 15 January games before connecting on 31.6 after the All-Star break. It might seem discursive to spend so much time talking about his up and down shooting from deep, but it remains the part of his game that has to improve if Orlando wants an equitable return on that $84 million extension. They still got a discount, so how bad can it be. There’s a reason agents get four percent.
Key Addition: Mo Bamba
Another long—preposterously long, largest wingspan (7’10”) ever measured long—big for a team that has D.J. Augustin starting at point guard. But Bamba combined with a healthy Jonathan Isaac and alongside Aaron Gordon locks in a frontcourt the Magic can grow with as they find a real NBA starter to run the point.
Key Portion of the Schedule: Dec. 31-Jan. 9 (at Charlotte, at Chicago, at Minnesota, at Los Angeles Clippers, at Kings, at Jazz)
This isn’t a difficult spat of games to usher in the new year, but it’s tough enough, particularly that last date in Salt Lake City, to answer some important questions about them. The Magic haven’t been a good basketball team in a long time, and after winning six of their first eight games last season, early-season performances could trick many into thinking Aaron Gordon is going to shoot 50 percent from three for the year. This is a long road trip far enough into the season we’ll see if new coach Steve Clifford has done what he did when he first got to Charlotte (made them respectable again).
Major Key: Point guard
Elfrid Payton wasn’t a huge loss except for young kids who like to do goofy things with their hair, but Jerian Grant is the replacement to back up career backup Augustin? If they’re hoping for an Oladipo-level leap, they’ll keep waiting. You need a point guard in the NBA, you really need a point guard in the NBA in 2018, and the Magic haven’t had a decent one since Jameer Nelson, or an elite one since Lil Penny was still a part of the zeitgeist.
Washington Wizards
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Started not to give a fuck and stopped fearing the consequence
Drinking every night because we drink to my accomplishments
Faded way too long I'm floating in and out of consciousness
“Headlines”
The Wizards got rid of Marcin Gortat, and gained Dwight Howard. Back when the Magic mattered, the Polish Hammer used to back Howard up, but now—after his personality quirks lapsed into defects—it seems like the Wizards downgraded. They also signed Jeff Green in free agency, who might be the perfect journeyman for this team. Chemistry wise, the Wizards are John Wall’s Team USA photo:
look idk what john wall was on this summer but lmk if you find it pic.twitter.com/EZC6ufft0L
— Haley O'Shaughnessy (@HaleyOSomething) July 26, 2018
Key Player: John Wall
Washington’s star reached a new level two seasons ago when he made an All-NBA Third Team, but last season he only played half the year and forgot you have to try on defense. His partnership with Bradley Beal doesn’t seem close, and has appeared frosty at times. Wall shot a career high from deep in 41 games and has pulled up earlier, or exploded all the way to the cup to avoid the long two-pointers he used to love. He’s Wall, so he looks like a star some nights, and on others he’s spaced out standing around the arc. Which one is gonna show up?
Key Addition: Austin Rivers
Best known as Doc Rivers’ kid, it’s probably a drag that bit of info gets mentioned almost every time he’s brought up. It’ll probably be easier when he’s not playing for his famous father. His presence alleviates the playmaking strain on Wall, and Rivers has been shooting at an above-average rate the last two years with a minimum of mistakes (coach’s son and and all).
Key Portion of the Schedule: Nov. 23-30 (at Raptors, New Orleans, Houston, at New Orleans, at Philadelphia)
It’s still early when they hit this stretch, including road games against the top teams in the East, but the Wizards core has been together long enough, they shouldn’t need much time to find their footing, even with a new big.
Major Key: Dwight Howard or Ian Mahinmi
Dwight’s butt is hurting, seriously, so it looks like the Wizards will go small with Markieff Morris as their five, or put in Ian Mahinmi. Neither player is as tickled by flatulence as the former Magic, Rocket, Laker, Hawk and Hornet, but that’s a good thing.
Central Division
Chicago Bulls
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
I brought the game to its knees
I make too much these days to ever say, ‘Poor me’
“Free Smoke”
Zach LaVine and Jabari Parker are making a scooch under $40 million combined this season. Lauri Markkanen has injured his shooting elbow and is out for at least a month and a half. Welcome to Chicago.
Key Player: Zach LaVine
The Bulls are paying an athlete who can’t defend and shot better from deep than many realized before tearing his ACL. It’s risky, but the cap will be well over $100 million when he’s still making slightly less than a fifth of that. Glass half full says the 23-year-old could make a leap, but when's he going to start playing defense? He’ll have lots of opportunity to earn the money on the offensive end with Markkanen out to start the season. Hopefully he shows flashes of the player Gar Forman and John Paxson thought they might get.
Zach LaVine has no chill. pic.twitter.com/vTy6vR2qSx
— Bulls Gold (@BullsGold) October 11, 2018
Key Addition: Jabari Parker
The Bulls let David Nwaba walk, who became a consistent favorite, or at least a favorite for his consistency. Parker’s parents were living on Chicago’s South Side before he was even conceived, such is his history in a city with a historic African-American community. Jabari still feels hyperactive on an NBA floor and takes too many long twos. His honesty about defense was refreshing as it was depressing because defense does actually matter. Can he play any D? “I don't know,” he said over the summer. “I just stick to my strengths. Look at everybody in the league—they don't pay players to play defense.”
Got it.
Key Portion of the Schedule: Jan. 9 -17 (at Portland, at Golden State, at Utah, at Los Angeles Lakers, at Denver)
Most, if not all, of these teams will be in the Western Conference playoffs, which means they’re better than all but three or perhaps four teams in the East if Giannis continues to reinvent what humans can do on a court.
Major Key: Health
For Lauri, for Jabari, and for LaVine’s knee. When fans are finished praying for a speedy Lauri recovery, they shouldn’t stand up yet. They should offer up a brief lament for Kris Dunn.
Cleveland Cavaliers
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
And if you end up needin' some extra help, then I could help
You know, back on your feet and shit
Tryna get my karma up, fuck the guilty and greedy shit
“Tuscan Leather”
Life after LeBron begins. Again. But at least Rodney Hood is back! No, but—apologies to Tristan Thompson and his attempt to remain relevant—the Cavs are gonna stink. Minnesota Kevin Love was almost a half decade ago, but Collin Sexton seems fun and ornery, the perfect youngster for fans to grab onto without LeBron’s comforting embrace.
"Last of the Mohicans" @kevinlove@TheRealJRSmith@Channing_Frye@RealTristan13pic.twitter.com/cqJBWpmBnE
— Officialize (@Officialize) October 10, 2018
Key Player: Kevin Love
We’ll see what he’s got left. He’s still borderline unplayable against the best teams in the league because of his defense, but he’s an elite passer and rebounder, and he can stretch defenses. Teamed with George Hill, future superstar Cedi Osman, and a batch of shooters along the wing—Kyle Korver is still in town, as are Hood and J.R. Smith—might even mean the Cavs make the playoffs, with Love as the fulcrum of their offense.
Key Addition: Collin Sexton
He once kept Alabama in a game they were forced to play 5-on-3 for the last 10-plus minutes of the game thanks to foul trouble. Despite this ridiculous disadvantage, they cut the deficit to 83-80 with 1:30 to play before eventually losing. The point is Cleveland got a battler, even if he takes too many contested pull-up jumpers and is more confident than good from range. At only 6’2”, 185 pounds, he’ll need to keep battling to have a net positive.
Key Portion of the Schedule: Nov. 21 (Lakers)
What does the crowd do when LeBron is in town? A highlight video on the big screen? Does Dan Gilbert put every sign in Q Arena in comic sans? Do the fans welcome him back because that 2016 title remains one of the most magnificent moments in all of sports. We’re leaning towards the latter, but it’s the only date to circle this season.
Major Key: Don’t fall outside the top 10 when the lottery ping pong balls are selected
If they do, they lose their first-round pick to Atlanta, and Gilbert throws tomatoes at a surprised and hurt Kyle Korver when he comes into practice.
Detroit Pistons
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
True say, I been goin' hard, but then again
They think I'm soft, think I'm innocent
“No Tellin'”
When did people stop believing in Blake Griffin? More importantly, when did the Clippers? Did they think he was soft, like a lot of fans do? LA dealt him right after he inked a five-year supermax contract. Now Blake cracks jokes about it to help his ongoing comedy career (Jeff Ross says he’s got skills!), and—we’re not gonna check because we like ourselves—he probably has some sort of YouTube show with Andre Drummond. You don’t talk about basketball with the Pistons, is what we’re saying. That way it’s less depressing.
Key Player: Blake Griffin
Um.
The nerve of Blake Griffin to complain for a foul. Jarrett Allen got this block clean pic.twitter.com/JJ2b9fcTZd
— Kristian Winfield (@Krisplashed) October 9, 2018
How wild would it be if Blake turned into a verb like Mozgov? Actually, nothing is wild anymore in America. But Blake could have fun in Detroit with new coach Dwane Casey playing him at the four and Drummond continuing to improve at the stripe. Blake is still working on the 3-point range that’ll allow him to be a playable forward in the contemporary NBA, but as that Jarrett Allen block savagely showed, his days of sending Twitter into a delirium of delight after a dunk are over.
Key Addition: Dwane Casey
It was either Casey or Jose Calderon, who really shouldn’t be in the NBA except as a disciple learning to be an assistant. Casey showed in Toronto he can coach a team to a successful regular season, and even bend a bit on the positional revolution he fought for so many years. The Pistons will be OK.
Key Portion of the Schedule: Oct. 27-Nov. 3 (Boston, at Boston, at Brooklyn, at Philadelphia)
We’ll know pretty early what the Pistons might do this year because at least Reggie Jackson will be healthy still (fingers crossed). But Boston twice in the same week at a home-and-home, followed by a trip to Philadelphia, will tell us whether they’re good enough with the turnover in the front office and along the sidelines to tussle with the group in the mid-tier of the crappier conference.
Major Key: Reggie Jackson’s health
You really need a point guard in the NBA, and while Jackson is a perfectly adequate point guard when healthy, he hasn’t ever been healthy. There are only so many big-big sets Casey can run before a perimeter player has create something. Blake and Drummond can’t do it. This is the point in the preview where we wonder whether Stanley Johnson makes the leap this year.
Indiana Pacers
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
They be starin’ at money like it’s unfamiliar
I get it. I live it. To me there’s nothing realer
“Successful”
Fresh off their success last season, Vegas doesn’t think Indy’s going to make a significant leap, instead finish right around where they did last year, despite the underrated acquisition of Tyreke Evans. Victor Oladipo is coming into the season as a legit star, and Myles Turner practicing hot yoga and bragging about his footwork when he’s defending a pick-and-roll shouldn't be underrated.
Key Player: Victor Oladipo
Learned he could scoot past anyone last season with a long enough runway. Like Russell Westbrook without the chest-thumping, generational athleticism, and drive. If he wants to again be in the running for an All-NBA selection, he’s gotta continue to get better knocking down off-the-dribble threes while attacking the rim with the same abandon he did in his breakout season.
Key Addition: Tyreke Evans
He can shoot 3-pointers now, and we’re old enough to remember when he was the most exciting layup artist this side of Monta Ellis. He’s been able to shoot from deep for a while, but it sometimes takes a while for the reality to catch up and overtake perception.
Key Portion of the Schedule: March 7-14 (at Milwaukee, at Philadelphia, New York, Oklahoma City)
Directly after hosting the Thunder in the dog days of March, the Pacers embark on their long west coast swing, so it’s important they get decisive wins against the Bucks and Sixers and make sure to add an easy one when the Knicks are in town.
Major Key: Myles Turner
If he can make a leap like Oladipo, the Sixers, Celtics, and Raptors might have some company, and Milwaukee could be looking at a road game to start the playoffs. The reports about his dedication to fitness is a nice start, as all bigs should be close to late-stage Tim Duncan if they wanna last in the Association these days. You know, less pounding on the knees. We just hope he shoots more 3-pointers, and less of those long twos he takes on pick and pops with Dipo.
Milwaukee Bucks
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Seems like yesterday that I was up and coming
Still so young that I ain't had enough of nothing
“We'll Be Fine”
This is the first of what could be the next eight or nine seasons where Giannis Antetokounmpo is in the MVP discussion from the opening tip. He started the 2017-18 campaign like the MVP was his to lose, but then fans remembered it was still just October and they were getting ahead of themselves. But if those same people remain placid when Giannis snags a rebound one foot above the rim, takes five dribbles, and dunks from the free throw line, then you’re gonna wanna check a pulse.
Key Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo
See above. But really, the only issue is his shot from the outside. He’s improved his 3-point percentage every season but his fluky first one where he shot 34.7 percent on very few attempts. Now we know what happened:
Never ever EVER credit Jason Kidd with Giannis’ development. He hurt, not helped it. https://t.co/krxiqFFHifpic.twitter.com/Op7ezlQrNN
— NoTechBen (@NoTechBen) October 10, 2018
He’s still taking too many mid-range jumpers, with fewer shots in the restricted area as a result. But he’s the most physically gifted player the league has seen since Kevin Garnett came outta high school. And now Bud’s got him.
Key Addition: Mike Budenholzer
There should be some justifiable backlash the first time Bucks Twitter starts second-guessing the former Gregg Popovich disciple and mastermind of a 60-win Hawks team NBA [Twitter] fans loathed as much as the mid-aught Spurs. Budenholzer is an elite helmsman. Give him a chance and we’re guessing Milwaukee finishes just outside the Toronto, Philly, Boston trio at the top of the conference. It took a lot for us to leave the Nets’ all-time leading scorer, Brook Lopez, out of this spot, but maybe his shooting—but not the rebounding—rubs off on 7’ floor spacer, Thon Maker.
Key Portion of the Schedule: Nov. 6-11 (at Portland, at Golden State, at Los Angeles Clippers, at Denver)
Milwaukee takes a mini west coast swing early in the year, and we’ll get to see Budenholzer’s influence on the squad before the Christmas lights are hung. It’ll be easy to overreact to either an undefeated, or win-less, trip to Louisiana Purchase territory, but the Bucks’ ills have so long been ascribed to the coach, expecting title contention before the new year is as irresponsible as it is foolish. Take note Bucks Twitter.
Major Key: Eric Bledsoe
Looking at Milwaukee’s plus-minus from last season, and Bledsoe’s unnaturally high net rating seemed like a byproduct of playing so much with Antetokounmpo. But while Giannis’ presence definitely helped the overall product, the Bucks played over 600 minutes with “Who is Terry Rozier?” on the floor but without the Greek superstar, and Milwaukee still played as a net positive. The 2016 Rookie of the Year, Malcolm Brogdon, will team better with Bledsoe after playing in training camp together, but it would be awful if Bledsoe’s iffy defensive engagement throttled a real run in the spring.
Southwest Division
Dallas Mavericks
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Most people in my position get complacent
Wanna come places with star girls and then end up on them front pages
I’m quiet with it, I just ride with it
“Too Much”
Dirk Nowitzki and Luka Doncic are almost too perfect a combo. One is the greatest European basketball import of all time, the other is the most hyped and the most accomplished European teenager to have entered the NBA. Together, their divergent careers bridge the gap in age and trajectory of the Mavs.
Key Player: DeAndre Jordan
Forgot about him, didn’t you. The former Clippers big man will be in Dallas for the last year of the contract he’d agreed to with them before the moratorium craziness brought Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Doc Rivers, and more to his doorstep in Dallas in order to convince him to re-sign with the Clippers. The Mavs finally have the franchise center they’ve been looking for since Tyson Chandler helped them win the 2011 title.
Key Addition: Luka Doncic
He could be the best player in this year’s draft, in which case the Hawks have some explainin’ to do for that trade. But he could also be an over-hyped starter in the NBA who works as a cautionary tale about the differences between the NBA and Euroleague, where Doncic became the youngest MVP and Final Four MVP at 19 last season. He could be special, or he could become an ethnocentrist argument against expanding the game outside America’s AAU bubble. No pressure (Dirk will help with this because the deck was way more stacked against him, and he still prevailed).
Key Portion of the Schedule: Nov. 24-30 (Boston, at Houston, at Los Angeles Lakers)
It’s early in the season, but this week will tell us a lot about Rick Carlisle’s group. Boston is the most talented team in the East and the Rockets and the Lakers will likely feature prominently in who comes out of the West. Dallas, less so.
Major Key: Keeping Rick Carlisle’s blood pressure down
Carlisle hates losing, and the last couple of seasons—when the Mavs have won 33 and 24 games, respectively—have been hard on the coach. Doncic's presence doesn’t alleviate that strain. He’s a teenage wunderkind, but the teenage component to that is most important. Plus, the West got even tougher with LeBron’s move to L.A., so the Mavs will likely be in the lottery once again come June.
Houston Rockets
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Man, this shit so ill that we had to restart it
H-Town my second home like I'm James Harden
“No New Friends”
They brought Carmelo Anthony aboard for cheap, and lost Trevor Ariza to what seems like a dumb, one-year, $15-million offer from Phoenix. James Harden still has a beard, and Chris Paul continues to have the meanest gameface of any player in the league. Eric Gordon might start, and Melo becomes the sixth man he probably should have been with the Thunder last year. So, the Rockets could set even more offensive records.
Key Player: James Harden
Reigning MVP, and perhaps the most divisive player on social media, with some calling him a touch-foul huckster, and others a savant at deceleration and yo-yo handles. No one has a better step-back 3-pointer, no matter how many times you claim it’s a travel.
Key Addition: Carmelo Anthony
If he defends, and continues to apologize any time he rises up for a 21-footer when he could have just as easily taken one from behind the arc, then maybe this works. No one should anticipate Anthony suddenly 10 years younger and 100 times more committed to stopping the opposing team from scoring, but he can take fewer long twos. I hope that’s on his Springfield bust.
Key Portion of the Schedule: March 3-10 (at Boston, at Toronto, Philly, at Dallas)
March can be the dog days of the season, and two tough games on the road against unfamiliar Eastern Conference teams will reveal how engaged Houston is when their destiny lies a couple months in the future.
Major Key: Health and everything’s humming
Paul’s hamstring may have cost the Rockets—up 3-2 on Warriors in last year’s Western Conference Finals—a very real chance at a title. This season is all about setting the team up to crescendo at the right time. Popovich used to be a master of this, and after so many playoff disappointments between Mike D’Antoni (always at the hands of Pop), Paul (in New Orleans, LA, and now Houston) and Harden, health will always outweigh seeding.
Memphis Grizzlies
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Only holdin' up I do is my end of the bargain
Only beggin' that I do is me beggin' your pardon
Only tryin' that I do is me tryin' the hardest
“Is There More”
They have their linchpin in the middle back playing as if they want to win games again. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a long body who can move laterally and capably guard 4 or 5 positions. With a 3-point shot on top of that, scouts and draftniks are salivating. But Mike Conley Jr.'s and Marc Gasol’s two-man game is the only way they come even close to where they once were: not a contender, but a playoff team no one else wanted to play in a best-of-seven.
Key Player: Marc Gasol
The wily Spaniard is the type of player who can only thrive when there’s at least one more elite player rolling with him. With Conley back in the lineup—fingers crossed—Gasol can go back to vivisecting bounce passes, jump hooks, trailing 3-pointers, and the sort of deft flipped screen that could spring a D.J. Augustin for a layup, and is a veritable layup line for a player of Conley’s gifts.
Key Addition: Jaren Jackson Jr. (JJJ)
He might be the perfect big for the modern era, both because of his limitations, and what he already can do. He can defend the rim with more athleticism and sophistication about rotations than Marvin Bagley or Deandre Ayton. And he an shoot from beyond the arc, unlike Mo Bamba. Not only that, but he’s agile enough to play the switch-heavy schemes that are increasingly the rage for the position-less modern game.
Key Portion of the Schedule: Jan. 14-21 (at Houston, Milwaukee, at Boston, at Toronto, New Orleans)
They’ve got a trip to the Bay, LeBron’s LA, and Portland in the week before Christmas. This stretch in the new year will let fans know what the two holdovers from the Grit ‘N Grind era can do with the new blood.
Major Key: JJJ’s development
They need to make sure they don’t rush him into bad habits, but give him enough responsibility to remain challenged. They aren’t going to be as good as in year’s past, but might surprise some people. The goal is to set themselves up long-term while Gasol and Conley try and win now. The key to that is J-cubed.
New Orleans Pelicans
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
All I care 'bout is money and the city that I'm from
I'ma sip until I feel it, I'mma smoke it 'til it's done
And I don’t really give a fuck, and my excuse is that I’m young
"I'm On One"
Anthony Davis is a real superstar, even if his April Fools joke—that he shaved his trademark unibrow as part of Red Bull’s cheesy marketing campaign—left a lot to be desired. With a full season having Nikola Mirotic rain trailing threes as the four-man, and another Jrue Holiday health miracle, the Pellies could again squeeze their way to some playoff success.
Key Player: Anthony Davis
He’ll win the MVP one of these years. It might even be this one. If he can substitute long twos for 3-point attempts, it might expedite that MVP timetable by adding another element to his already devastating offensive chops. He could also be in the running for Defensive Player of the Year, too. No player outside Kawhi and Heat-era LeBron has this much affect on both sides of the floor.
Anthony Davis says he’s the best player in the NBA - and yes, I asked him if he’s heard of LeBron & Kevin Durant. But AD points out he’s the only one if that group who was a finalist for both MVP and Defensive Player of the Year last season. pic.twitter.com/gc2njPliyQ
— Rachel Nichols (@Rachel__Nichols) October 13, 2018
Key Addition: Julius Randle
Watching this team sprint up and down the court again, but this time with Randle involved, is going to be fun. He, like new point guard Elfrid Payton, might cramp the floor a bit, encumbering some of those easy rim-roll scores for Davis. But he can be a beast in the open floor.
Key Portion of the Schedule: Oct. 29-Nov. 5 (at Denver, at Golden State, at Portland, at San Antonio, at Oklahoma City)
Fun times ahead for Alvin Gentry’s sprinters. They face nearly the full Western gauntlet on the road before the first month of the season has even taken place. If the Pelicans can survive it without going winless, or cratering from injury, they should be set up well for the season’s second half and a playoff spot.
Major Key: Fast, faster, fastest
Pace was the key to New Orleans second-half scoring bonanza and it allowed them to adhere to an identity. Most importantly, it aligned with the offensive philosophy Gentry espoused when taking over for Mike D’Antoni’s seven-seconds-or-less Suns, and as the assistant coach under Steve Kerr for the 2015 title-winning Warriors. They were No. 1 in pace last season, one of only two other teams among the top 10 in net rating (New Orleans was No. 10 on the year), who also ranked in the top 5 for pace. It’s unique to them, so expect to see some really fun offensive fireworks.
San Antonio Spurs
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Can I tell you what I think my biggest flaw is, baby?
I try to be consistent, but I can’t
“Can I?”
The Spurs are everyone’s favorites to fall off, especially with Dejounte Murray and his alien arms now out with a right ACL tear. But Gregg Popovich has two All-Stars and enough role players baptized in silver and black around them to play into the spring like they do every year. They just won’t be favored in the first round.
Key Player: LaMarcus Aldridge
Did you know LMA made his second All-NBA Second Team last season? It might’ve felt off because the Spurs didn’t win 50-something games, and there was internal strife—those Tony Parker comments didn’t help—but LMA kept trudging along, putting up the highest PER of his career and leading his team to the playoffs in the more difficult conference. He’s a star, even if he doesn’t move like one.
Key Addition: DeMar DeRozan
You know who joined LMA on the All-NBA Second Team last year? DeMar did. This is why the suggestion they’re liable to miss the playoffs this season seems so ridiculous, even missing their long-limbed point guard of the future. DeMar is good, even if he’s not Kawhi. Same with LMA and Duncan.
Drake & DeMar got us in our feelings 😢 pic.twitter.com/LVLs9UdhpK
— NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) July 25, 2018
Key Portion of the Schedule: Feb. 2-12 (New Orleans, at Sacramento, at Golden State, at Portland, at Utah, at Memphis)
Unlike every other team in this preview, the Spurs best opponents aren’t a proxy for how their season will go, but they’re spending almost the entire month of February on the road with eight straight games away from home from Feb. 4-25, and Charlotte’s All-Star weekend thrown in after that Memphis game. That’s a ton of time traveling, even if some of it is a vacation (except for DeMar and Aldridge). However, the Spurs aren’t in title contention, no matter how much Popovich pretends otherwise. They will likely struggle against Utah, Portland, and Golden State on this trip. However, they can live off the Sacramentos and Phoenixs of the world to make the postseason, and they only get one of those cream-puff teams during this stretch.
Major Key: Popovich’s dream: execute and eliminate mistakes
If they feast on the mistake-laden teams computing ping-pong ball odds after every loss, they don’t have to win that many games against the elite teams to secure a spot in the playoffs. And that’s all Popovich really wants: a few more chances in the spring before he moves to the vineyard.
Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
And I’m just flllin’ up this daily planner
Getting busy ‘cause I’m a star: no spangled banner
“Light Up”
No longer is this Melo’s team, or George Karl’s team, or the team in the cannabis state. It’s Serbian center, Nikola Jokic, perhaps the best-passing big ever not named Arvydas Sabonis (and maybe better than him because we didn’t get to see much of his prime in Russia).
Key Player: Nikola Jokic
He’s a more ambidextrous Magic Johnson in the body of a 7’ Serbian who looks like he might not even get picked first in a pickup game. But he’s the most efficient offensive big in the league, who can shoot from deep and is near automatic posting up, but prefers to whip the ball around to his hard-cutting teammates. His passing is impossible to teach and as rare as Draymond Green’s anticipation or LeBron’s near-photographic recall of the defenses he’s faced. Jokic’s the elixir of life for basketball traditionalists who revere the ‘77 Blazers and always took Larry Brown’s side against Allen Iverson. If you own tie dyed “Blog Boys” merch, you genuflect every time you tune into the Nuggets on League Pass.
Key Addition: Isaiah Thomas
The former MVP candidate and response to any fan who claims [Superstar X] isn’t loyal to their favorite team, signed a one-year veteran’s minimum to team up with his former Kings coach, Mike Malone. Thomas isn’t quite healthy after having a second surgery on his hip in March, but recent reports have him making a big impact in the locker room. Hopefully, it’s not the negative nancy impression he left in Cleveland, and the formerly staid Nuggets are happy about his extroverted verve like the Celtics fans used to be.
Key Portion of the Schedule: April 3-10 (San Antonio, at Portland, Portland, at Utah, Minnesota)
The Nuggets close their season out against the very teams they’re competing against for the last four or five seeds in the West.
Major Key: Health, particularly Paul Millsap
The lineup of Jokic, Millsap, re-signed Will Barton at wing (kudos to that young man’s agent, Aaron Goodwin, who told him to turn down Denver’s 4-year, $42 million extension and bet on himself, instead signing for four years and $52 million), and Gary Harris in the backcourt with Jamal Murray had an astronomical net rating—33.7—in only 65 minutes of game action last season (certainly an inconsequential amount because of the sample size, until you realize it’s their starting lineup this year)
Minnesota Timberwolves
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Yeah, you played me, you played me, you played me
Low down, dirty, shameful, crazy
“Jaded”
Jimmy Butler is either an iconoclast for pushing for overt player agency, or the worst nightmare of the NBA’s ruling party (the owners). How the hell can we talk about anything with this team while they struggle to figure out whether they really want to trade him? Tom Thibodeau certainly doesn’t, even if his indecisive boss, owner Glen Taylor, does.
Key Player: Karl-Anthony Towns
There are few bigs in the history of the league who have put up the numbers KAT did through his first two seasons. Then, like a good teammate, he ceded offensive responsibility to Butler. But Butler allegedly felt like he was owed a certain level of respect, a level KAT and Andrew Wiggins believed was artificially high for a man who hasn’t ever gotten one of his teams to a conference final. On the other hand, Butler couldn’t ignore Towns’ bizarre regression on defense (blame Thibs’ strong-side scheme all you want, but it’s partially on KAT, too) and how the team fell off a cliff when he was banged up in the second half of the season, falling from No. 4 in the crowded West to out entirely, then back in as the eighth seed after a win over the Nuggets on the final night.
Key Addition: Whomever they get for Jimmy
Key Portion of the Schedule: Oct. 29-Nov. 4 (Los Angeles Lakers, Utah, at Golden State, at Portland)
A potential Butler trade will hang over this stretch, so don’t expect them to hit .500, but if they can win one of these games in deciding fashion, it’s a good omen for their long-term prospects after Jimmy (inevitably?) leaves.
Major Key: Get this dang trade worked out so the rest of the NBA can move on to the start of the season! Taylor is so freakin’ cheap, he’s letting Thibodeau slow-play the Butler trade discussions, or outright sabotage a deal when it looks likely to go through.
Oklahoma City Thunder
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Somewhere between psychotic and iconic
“Furthest Thing”
Russell Westbrook remains the fulcrum for how this team might swing in the playoffs. There’s no one quite like him in the league, but he’s also only won three(!?!?!) playoff games since Kevin Durant left. This team might change that, but it could boil down to a peripheral piece.
Key Player: Paul George
George can be a fiend on defense, bodying his man on the perimeter, and duck in and out of screens before accelerating right into a passing lane that looked open a moment earlier. However, for PG-13 to be successful on the defensive end, he needs Andre Roberson’s rare length, speed, and switch-ability across all positions.
Key Addition: Dennis Schroder
The same skills that made Schroder a middling starting point guard for Atlanta, make him a superior backup in OKC. It was a smart move by GM Sam Presti to get Atlanta on the hook for some of his contract because Schroder is someone who can space the floor and create alongside Russ at the end of games. Much as Ray Felton has become endearingly resilient as a backup, Schroder is a notable upgrade.
Key Portion of the Schedule: Feb. 22-28 (Utah, Sacramento, at Denver, Philadelphia)
These are the first four games after the break, and they go on their last big road trip right after them, so their schedule calms down. This is craziness before the trip and it could make or break their positioning before the stretch run.
Major Key: Health
This is the biggest issue for any team that considers themselves elite. Westbrook, George, Steven Adams, and Billy Donovan all think they’re elite (Shroder thought he was elite winning a handful of games in Atlanta).
Portland Trail Blazers
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Cashing checks and I’m bigging up my chest
Y'all keep talking ‘bout who next, but I’m about as big as it gets
“All Me”
The Blazers are bringing back the same squad that’s come up short early in the playoffs the last few years. A guard-centric attack that’s found their famous flow offense stymied by teams that caught up to the basic tenor of the scheme’s movements. Now they’re claiming they can change, while doing more of the same.
Key Player: Damian Lillard
He says he wants to be the MVP this year, and he’s shown remarkable flashes of that ability for stretches the last two seasons. But you have to defend to win the MVP, and we haven’t seen that tenacity from him yet.
Key Addition: Seth Curry
We guess Seth works. He’ll play the same role Shabazz Napier played for Rip City last year, and he’ll do it at right around the same level. Maybe he gets a little more buzz or benefit of the doubt because of his brother, but we doubt it changes Portland’s overriding issues.
Key Portion of the Schedule: April 3-9 (Memphis, at Denver, Denver, at Los Angeles Lakers)
Three playoff contenders as four of Portland’s last five games. Yikes. They should try to schedule convalescence and minutes so they’re hitting their stride right as this stretch of games comes on the calendar.
Major Key: Evaluate and act
Do GM Neil Olshey and coach Terry Stotts really want to run it back again with this team? Haven’t they already banged up against their ceiling, at least until they get better pieces around that dynamic backcourt. Is this finally the year to break McCollum and Lillard up?
Utah Jazz
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
I reached the point where don't shit matter to me, n*****
I reached heights that Dwight Howard couldn't reach, n*****
“Tuscan Leather”
This team could finish second in the West. That’s not a Twitter take. Rudy Gobert might not be as accomplished as Dwight Howard (yet), but he’s less corny and has more creative nicknames than Superman.
Key Player: Donovan Mitchell
It could be Ricky Rubio or Gobert, too, but last season’s surprise rookie is the pick. He’s their linchpin at 22, with a PER under 17 and a 3-point shooting percentage under 35. The point is that he can get a lot better, and second-year players often do. Ben Simmons won Rookie of the Year as one; so did Blake Griffin. Mitchell is flash-era Dwyane Wade with a smoother jumper. They’re near the same tier as Houston and Golden State if Mitchell really does get better, Rubio stays healthy, and Gobert continues to be the most dominant defensive big in the game.
Key Addition: Grayson Allen
The Salt Lake City crowd is gonna love him even more the next time he unintentionally leg whips an opponent. The rest of us will hate him, but he’ll develop a small following among Jazz beat writers and there will be an in-depth articles about him that reads like parody, but will be dead serious. He’s not gonna be a huge factor for this team beyond that.
Key Portion of the Schedule: Dec. 17-25 (at Houston, Golden State, at Portland, Oklahoma City, Portland)
All the big boys in the West and hosting Portland on Christmas, which might be the only time non-League Pass people see them play. Or, you know, they’ll be drunk and in bed because it’s the fifth game of the night.
Major Key: Ricky Rubio’s shooting
The Jazz went 30-8 over their last 38 games last season, finishing with the No. 5 net rating and a bottom five pace. They turned the ball over more than a coach wants—not as much as Philly, who did it the most—but, like their young star, there’s room for improvement. Utah’s winning ways late in the season stemmed from Ricky letting loose and shooting better from deep. He’s still not the best at the rim, but if he can knock down a smattering of catch-and-shoot threes, it unlocks a ton of Quin Snyder actions that make the hairs raise on the necks of NBA nerds.
Pacific Division
Golden State Warriors
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Back-to-back like I'm Jordan 96-97
“Back to Back”
Best team ever put together and then they added DeMarcus Cousins. Fuck the Warriors. Even they don’t wanna run this back should they complete a three-peat, everyone hopes they fail. They know this and don’t care.
Key Player: Andre Iguodala
Smartest player on likely the smartest team in the league in terms of ad hoc adaptations of a game plan if something isn’t working. He calms the team and probably the coaches, which is why Steve Kerr and GM Bob Myers lobbied owner Joe Lacob to match what the Rockets almost got him for in the summer of 2017. Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry are two of the top five players in the league; Draymond Green is a once-in-a-generation defensive presence; Klay Thompson will probably go down as the second-best shooter in NBA history when it’s all said and done (Mark Jackson proved prophetic when he deemed them the best shooting backcourt ever way back in 2013), and he’s a dramatically underrated defender who should be on the All-Defense Team. But Iggy is the sedative they need, both on the floor and in the locker room.
Key Addition: DeMarcus Cousins
Before his torn Achilles’ tendon in the 2017-18 season, Cousins had a statistical claim—25.2 points, 12.3 rebounds and 5.4 assists on .470/.354/.746 shooting splits—that he was the best center in basketball. Yeah, he turned it over all the time and didn’t get back on defense, but those peccadilloes don’t overrule the positives. It should be noted no one his size has come back from an Achilles’ injury and been the same again, but if he’s even close to dominating again, particularly on the block, the Warriors got more unbeatable.
Key Portion of the Schedule: March 13-19 (at Houston, at Oklahoma City, at San Antonio, at Minnesota)
The two-time defending champs do the Texas Triangle, and we get to see if they give a shit about the regular season anymore, or if this is just a DeMarcus Cousins showcase.
Major Key: Cousins keeps them engaged
With Durant’s impending free agency a distraction all season, and the weight of trying to accomplish what only the 1960s Celtics, 1990s Bulls, and 2000s Lakers could accomplish by winning three championships in a row (and four in five years for the OG Dubs everyone used to love) will need something else to focus on. Much like David West, JaVale McGee, and Nick Young were for last year’s team, Cousins—likely playing in the first playoff games of his career—is a story, but also the story.
Los Angeles Clippers
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Boomin' out in South Gwinnett like Lou Will
6 man like Lou Will, two girls and they get along like I'm...Lou Will, I just got the new deal
“6 Man”
Key Player: Lou Williams
Because the NBA doesn’t have the best grasp of their fan’s diminished hunger for regular-season awards after two months of playoff basketball, it’s hard to remember Lou Williams was the Sixth Man of the Year in 2018. But he was, and the Clippers signed him to a deal during the middle of last season that’s a bargain. Jerry West’s silhouette never felt so confident.
Key Addition: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
I know the Shaun Livingston comparisons are there, but man, we love Lou mentoring Shai on skills like keeping his balance when he’s shooting off the the wrong foot. Sweet Lou is a fall-out-of-bed gunner, which can inspire bad habits in others, who think preternatural marksmanship is the norm for them, too. Anyways, the youngster out of Kentucky with a 6’11.5” inch wingspan on a 6’6” frame is a funky bit of size, handle, and quickness.
Key Portion of the Schedule: Oct. 23-Nov. 1 (at New Orleans, at Houston, Washington, at Oklahoma City, at Philadelphia)
It’s remarkable how Doc Rivers got the Clippers to compete last year, and it’s a testament to Lawrence Frank, West, owner Steve Ballmer, and the whole organization.
Major Key: They have to tank if there’s any chance they fall outside of the lottery
Boston and Memphis hold top-14 protected picks for this summer. Can Rivers live with anything other than total commitment to winning? More importantly for Ballmer, can West? And is that the most strategic way to build a champion in today’s NBA, especially with the Lakers now possessing the best player in the world? More importantly, will any networks pick up the Tobias Harris and Boban Marjanović show?
Los Angeles Lakers
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
Done talk now, 'cause there's other shit that's concernin' me
There's real ones around me / I want to make sure they learn from me
“Do Not Disturb”
They’re back, and all the scenesters are back with them. The fans who only rock Nick Van Exel jerseys to Staples Center and think West’s silhouette should also be on California currency.
Key Player: LeBron James
He’s the best player in the world. Still. He’s an embryonic entertainment mogul, solidified by the smattering of eclectic development deals announced this summer when basketbloggers first followed The Hollywood Reporter and added to them to the RSS feed. LeBron also inherited a future “Where are they now” cast of NBA journeyman along with three of the most exciting, singular young players in the league: Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, and Kyle Kuzma. You could even throw Josh Hart in that group, who seems tailor made to reap the rewards of playing with James. Watching LeBron mesh the youngsters with anachronistic veterans Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, JaVale McGee, and Michael Beasley, might be the final set of chapters in LeBron’s legacy. Or, it’ll be the Hindenburg. Fun either way, and even if they aren’t watching the Kobe stans make sense of this LeBron world might be the existential battle of the era.
Key Addition: Have you been living under a rock?
Key Portion of the Schedule: Jan 17-24 (at Oklahoma City, at Houston, Golden State, Minnesota)
They go on a big road trip back first to the Bay and then out east to face the Celtics and Sixers going into the All-Star break. But this week against arguably three of the top four or five top teams in the West will give fans a first look at how they might actually fair in a playoff series.
Major Key: Development
No one, especially not LeBron, is talking titles right now. Nor should they. The first half of the season is a tryout. This is LeBron, Luke Walton (for now), Magic Johnson, and GM Rob Pelinka’s ship to steer after owner Jeanie Buss mercilessly relieved her brother from his duties as the basketball ops side. They’re all gonna be jockeying for position as they become the new hot spot in the league. What could go wrong?
Phoenix Suns
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
When I shoot my shot, that shit wetty like I’m Shek (bitch!)
See the shots that I took, (ayy) wet like I’m Book (ayy)
“Sicko Mode”
The Suns suck. They’ve been a joke since Steve Nash was dealt to the Lakers. But there are some intriguing pieces, most notably their score-first guard, now out after surgery on his shooting hand, and the No. 1 overall pick this past June.
Key Player: Devin Booker
Booker seems to get love from all the cool kids. The NBA is like high school, and Booker is a particularly charming freshman or sophomore, who parties with the cool kids at USA Basketball practices before returning to his middle school friends in Phoenix. Booker is a legit scorer, but he has yet to show any maturation beyond the ability to get buckets, and this year has to be a watershed for less-flashy side of his game. It’s an evolution all great players have to go through, but Suns have been such a disaster, we’ve ignored glaring holes in his game.
Key Addition: Deandre Ayton
Scoring big men haven’t been in vogue for a while in the NBA, but Ayton’s big frame, agility, and soft touch around the rim make him a consistent threat to score in the restricted area. Excellent shooting form figures to extend to NBA 3-point range, so he won’t always muddle the box with his presence. Unfortunately, he’s got a lot to live up to. He could be an an All-NBA big, and get selected for the All-Star game multiple times, but if Doncic becomes a superstar, he’ll always be the guy—along with Marvin Bagley III and Trae Young—who got picked in front of the heralded Serbian via Spain.
Key Portion of the Schedule: Nov. 8-14 (Boston, at New Orleans, at Oklahoma City, San Antonio)
The Suns aren’t going to survive this, but hopefully Booker is back and acclimated and Ayton hasn’t fallen prey to the rookie swoon.
Major Key: Is Robert Sarver a less capable Mark Cuban?
That’s what firing GM Ryan McDonough a week before the season felt like (And Cuban isn’t an angel by any stretch of the imagination). Despite the presence of Booker, Ayton, and Josh Jackson, the team seems more muddled than ever after the dismissal. Everything in sports trickles down from the top.
Sacramento Kings
If This Squad Was A Drake Lyric:
You won't ever have to worry, you won't ever have to hide
You've seen all my mistakes so look me in my eyes
“Take Care”
The Kings remain the worst franchise in basketball. We’ve seen the mistakes owner Vivek Ranadive has made since buying the team from the Maloof family. However, there are some bright spots with this year’s team, even if they’re destined for the basement yet again.
Key Player: De'Aaron Fox
Sacramento’s second-year guard knocked down a succession of 3-pointers against the Lakers in the pre-season, and it felt like he had inhabited a new body. That’s the sign of a player who really improved over the summer, or at least improved his confidence. Fake it until you make it, but if Fox is connecting at a higher rate from three, this team’s upside rises right along with it.
Key Addition: Marvin Bagley III
This isn’t big-time college basketball. It’s grown men playing to take care of their family’s future. How the No. 2 pick in the draft handles that reality will go a long way toward labeling this season a success or failure. Bagley moved like an NBA player back in high school, but his downsides defensively, and an inconsistent 3-point shot, doom him to Jahlil Okafor status if he doesn’t work his butt off when he’s still in his athletic window.
Key Portion of the Schedule: April 4-10 (Cleveland, at Utah, New Orleans, at Portland)
Three of those teams should be fighting over a playoff spot, but Cleveland could be trying to lose just as explicitly as the Kings. That April 4 game is gonna be a race to awful; hopefully, that’s a race Sacramento actually wins.
Major Key: Fostering a group identity over wins
Who are the Kings? Right now they’re perceived as the runt, or the problem child. Worse yet, the perception is they’re incompetent to the point where other teams don’t even worry about them. They’re who you go to when you wanna take advantage of someone, like a country bumpkin asking about directions on the NYC subway, with his wallet beside them on the seat.
