Image via Complex Original
Now that LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony have (finally) picked where they are going to play next year, all eyes have turned to Vegas, where the NBA's loaded 2014 rookie class is getting their first taste of NBA action. But it's never too early to pay attention to the games that really matter.
The NBA will look very different next season, as more and more fading stars face Father Time. Whether it's Kobe Bryant battling his Achilles injury, or Paul Pierce playing for the Wizards, future Hall of Fame players will be entering some of their final seasons. Additionally, guys like Lance Stephenson and Trevor Ariza now have different roles on different teams, after taking new contracts and more money.
As the NBA's summer break approaches, it's never to early to speculate on which fading stars and overpaid free agents could face tough times next season. Here are some of the NBA Players who are Destined to Decline Next Season.
Trevor Ariza
2013-2014 Stats: 14.2 PPG 2.5 APG 6.2 RPG
Current Team: Houston Rockets
Like many players during a contract year, Trevor had one of his best seasons. Ariza shot 41 percent from deep last season, but let's call that an aberration considering he's a lifetime 35 percent three-point shooter. He benefited from playing next to another deadeye shooter in Bradley Beal. When it comes down to Wall, Beal and Ariza, who are you going to leave open? Ariza is the choice 10 times out of 10. He'll get his looks from playing with James Harden and Dwight Howard, but he'll probably spend more time trying to cover Harden's ass on defense.
We're calling all bluffs on Trevor Ariza this season, he's in store for a massive decline.
Dion Waiters
2013-2014 Stats: 15.9 PPG 3.0 APG 2.8 RPG
Current Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Dion Waiters is the East Coast version of Swaggy P without all the fun. All it takes is one jumper for Waiters to pretend he's in a 2K heat zone. By all accounts, hedid his thing last season especially when Kyrie Irving was injured. However, with the influx of LeBron James and Andrew Wiggins, Waiters' touches are going to come down. Even if he doesn't want to admit it, Waiters might have to come off the bench this season.
His numbers are decent, but he's yet to shoot 45 percent from the field or average a PER of 15 or greater in his young career. Playing with Mr. Efficiency in LeBron James will expose Dion Waiter's shot jacking tendencies more than ever before, if he can even last the whole season in Cleveland.
Arron Afflalo
2013-2014 Stats: 18.2 PPG 3.4 APG 3.6 RPG
Current Team: Denver Nuggets
Arron Afflalo is the classic case of the player who drops bombs on a terrible team and his value gets perpetuated because of it. We can't hate on his numbers from last season, but he's simply a very good role player. This explains why the Magic traded him away for a meaningless second-round selection and Evan Fournier (who?). The Nuggets consistently try to gather up all the greatest role players in the NBA and throw them on the court. It's fun to watch, but never materializes into anything great, or even good for that matter.
Next to the tribe of role players that is the Denver Nuggets, Afflalo will have a nice season, but not the breakout that happened this year.
Deron Williams
2013-2014 Stats: 14.3 PPG 6.1 APG 2.6 RPG
Current Team: Brooklyn Nets
Deron Williams should get one of these full body casts at this point in his career. Plus, anytime you're being compared to a character from Grown Ups (a movie with 90 percent negative reviews) you know it's bad.
The Nets' "star" point guard underwent surgery in May on BOTH ankles after playing a grueling 64 games last season. This comes after years of injury-plagued seasons in which Williams has seemingly had every type of ankle procedure available to humans, as well as random knee and wrist injuries.
Deron only averaged 14 points per game last season and didn't have an ounce of athleticism throughout the Nets' up-and-down year. Now, with Jason Kidd, Shaun Livingston and Paul Pierce all fleeing the sinking ship, Williams is practically alone on offense and he'll have no choice but to play more minutes. His legs may detach from his body by the All-Star break.
Joe Johnson
2013-2014 Stats: 15.8 PPG 2.7 APG 3.4 RPG
Current Team: Brooklyn Nets
Ah, the majestic Joe Johnson ISO play. Seems like its been with us forever. Your middle-of-the-road, first-round-playoff-exit team is down 10 points in the third quarter and coach knows the perfect remedy. Several Joe Johnson isolation jumpers and/or drives later, your mediocre squad has tied the game and your fans have all but forgotten that they have no chance of winning a championship. The team will probably lose in the fourth, but those ISO plays...they were a thing of beauty.
San Antonio's Finals beat down of the Miami Heat didn't just signal the end of the LeBron James era in South Beach, it put a wooden stake in the heart of isolation-focused basketball for the foreseeable future. And while JJ may get a few more looks on Brooklyn next season with Paul Pierce taking his wheelchair to DC, Joe's age (33) along with an evolving league and a middling team will only hasten his decline.
Manu Ginobili
2013-2014 Stats: 12.3 PPG 4.3 APG 3.0 RPG
Current Team: San Antonio Spurs
Safe to say that the people who were predicting the demise of Ginobili and the rest of the Spurs' Big Three five years ago were the same people writing about how the Spurs "personify team basketball and everything that's right in the world" after winning the title this year. Ginobili was certainly able to turn back the clock this June, and his monster dunk on Chris Bosh (we could watch this all day) reminded everyone he's still got plenty left. But the bald spot is only growing larger, and the stress fracture in his right leg could be a concern going forward.
He's going to be 37 later this month, and the continued emergence of Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard means Ginobili doesn't need to be a dynamic scorer anymore. He played only 23 minutes per game last season, and Pop will probably scale those numbers back even further to try and save him for April.
Jodie Meeks
2013-2014 Stats: 15.7 PPG 1.8 APG 2.5 RPG
Current Team: Detroit Pistons
Jodie Meeks recently signed a three-year contract with the Detroit Pistons earning himself $19.5 million. Let's put that in perspective. For the yearly cost of Jodie, theoretically you could purchase two Tim Howards, the real-life American Hero who owns the single-game World Cup saves record.
Or you could buy roughly 10 Super Bowl-winning, mixed race barbershop-attending Russell Wilsons. Or you could pay the salaries of an entire Canadian Football League team. Or, OR...you could get one pretty good NBA jump shooter. That's just for perspective.
By most accounts, Meeks outplayed his expectations last season, putting up pretty terrific numbers on a pretty horrific Laker team. The team needed him to step into more of a scoring role and to his credit he did just that. But Jodie Meeks is still Jodie Meeks: a three-point specialist who can occasionally put it on the floor. And as Jodie moves to Motown and is forced to share the ball with Brandon Jennings, Josh Smith, and Andre Drummond, the chances of him duplicating those LA numbers seem very unlikely.
Dwyane Wade
2013-2014 Stats: 19.0 PPG 4.7 APG 4.5 RPG
Current Team: Miami Heat
What can we say about Dwyane Wade's knee that hasn't yet been said about Afghanistan? It looks bombed out and depleted. Seriously, look at this thing:
One of these knees is not like the other. Shit ain't right.
Now look at D. Wade's stats from last year: Flash nearly averaged 19/5/5 last season. Yes, he missed 28 games, but those are still VERY solid numbers. Very solid numbers that won't be duplicated by a man with a matchstick for a left knee. Will he find additional motivation in response to LeBron's departure and once again being "The Guy" (sorry Bosh) in Miami? Sure. But motivation doesn't make people any younger and it sure as hell doesn't grow new cartilage.
Dwyane has been one of the best shooting guards the League has ever seen, but as the old saying goes: Father Time is undefeated.
Gordon Hayward
2013-2014 Stats: 16.2 PPG 5.2 APG 5.1 RPG
Current Team: Utah Jazz
Gordon Hayward received a max offer sheet of four years, $63 million from the Charlotte Hornets earlier this month, and the Utah Jazz matched it. This isn't something that happened in 2K. Two NBA teams actually gathered their staffs around after days of contemplating and decided to give him max money.
He averaged 16 points, five rebounds and five assists in his best season ever last year. Utah was the worst team in the Western Conference, and one would think they'd have learned that you can't win with Gordon Hayward as your best player. BUT NO.
This absurd contract will create unreasonable expectations for a guy trapped on a team that is in an infinite rebuild. Having Dante Exum will help, but there's no way Hayward can be worthy of that contract next season. At least now he can afford a decent haircut.
Taj Gibson
2013-2014 Stats: 13.0 PPG 1.1 APG 6.8 RPG
Current Team: Chicago Bulls
It's hard to think of two people more different than Taj Gibson and Pau Gasol. Gibson dunks on people, freaks out at refs and plays great D, while Pau is a great jump shooter with possibly the kindest Twitter account ever created. Yet they'll both be playing power forward for the Bulls, and Taj will be the odd man out of the starting five.
Gibson had a big year last year, averaging a career-high in points while establishing himself as a defensive force for Chicago. But the Bulls desperately need more offense, and Gibson's role will be scaled back as Pau takes his minutes.
Kobe Bryant
2013-2014 Stats: 13.8 PPG 6.3 APG 4.3 RPG
Current Team: Los Angeles Lakers
There are plenty of places on the Internet you can go to see people throwing shade on Kobe Bryant. This will not be one of those places. Kobe's 13.8 ppg average was the lowest since his rookie season, when Bean Jr. was only 18 years old and getting 15.5 minutes per game. Don't expect to see his point totals stay that low next season. Kobe is a workout cyborg who has fooled the world into thinking he's a real human person who eats food and has emotions. No way he's held to 13 per contest. So why even include The Mamba on this list?
Because he's infinity (35) years old and coming off a devastating ruptured Achilles. If it were anyone else they wouldn't even be on the "Declining" list and would've already been moved to the NBA trash heap along with Andrew Bynum and the crushed dreams of NBA D-leaguers.
But this is Kobe, and while it's obvious to anyone with eyeballs that he's not even close to the player he once was, he surely will fill up box scores in an attempt to make Carmelo Anthony regret not joining him in LA. #CountOnKobe
Paul Pierce
2013-2014 Stats: 13.5 PPG 2.4 APG 4.6 RPG
Current Team: Washington Wizards
Can we all just agree to pretend that Paul Pierce's one-year stint in Brooklyn never happened? Pierce somehow played 75 games last year despite the fact that it looked like he was decaying at times. He's going to be 37 years old, his mobility and defense are already limited, and he averaged a surprisingly large 28 minutes per game last year.
The Wizards lost Trevor Ariza and are trying to develop Otto Porter Jr. so all they'll need Pierce to do is put in 15 minutes a night, hit some treys and play defense in the playoffs. Pierce shot 37.3 percent from three last year, so he can definitely still shoot. But with less minutes comes less opportunities to produce. At least the Wiz have his veteran leadership.
Isaiah Thomas
2013-2014 Stats: 20.3 PPG 6.3 APG 2.9 RPG
Current Team: Phoenix Suns
The fact that there's a (surprisingly convincing) video on YouTube titled "Is Isaiah Thomas Better Than Kyrie Irving" tells you all you need to now about the 5-foot-9 point guard's time in Sacramento. Thomas thrived with Sacramento and had a career year last year. He had career high's in practically every category and ran the show on a team with some young talent. So naturally, the Kings let him go to Phoenix for a trade exception and the rights to someone named Alex Oriakhi.
But the Suns have stockpiled point guards and it'll be tough for Thomas to have the same impact on a team with Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe is a free agent and could be on the move, but the Suns still have the guy who won the Most Improved Player award last year and established himself as one of the most entertaining players in the game. Goran Dragic is not moving over so Isaiah Thomas can handle the rock.
Vince Carter
2013-2014 Stats: 11.9 PPG 2.6 APG 3.5 RPG
Current Team: Memphis Grizzlies
At 37, Carter is running out of time to get that elusive ring. So why, in his 17th season, did Carter agree to a three-year deal with the MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES? Vince should have been on the first flight to Cleveland after LeBron's announcement, and it's not hard to envision Carter handcuffing himself to Quicken Loans Arena until he left with a contract to suit up for the title favorites this year. Carter used his time in Dallas to reinvent himself, becoming an ace three-point shooter. He nearly shot 40 percent from three last year and he definitely has some gas left in the tank.
Yet he's going to wither away on a Grizzlies team that's gone through ridiculous turmoil this summer and has little chance of contending in the loaded Western Conference. Vince, what do you have to say about your chances of winning a title in Memphis?
Swaggy P
2013-2014 Stats: 17.9 PPG 1.5 APG 2.6 RPG
Current Team: Los Angeles Lakers
From celebrating a missed three to hitting a spinning 360 reverse layup Nick Young was pretty much the only reason to watch the Lakers last year. While the Year of Swaggy may have peaked when he drunkenly commented on Iggy Azalea's ass outside of an L.A. club (or was it when he almost allegedly popped a pill a with Brandon Jennings in July?) this year things are going to be very different in Lakerland. Kobe's back, which means Young won't be the primary option for the Lakers offensively. Young won't be able to jack up 14 shots per game as he did last year, and he'll face the wrath of Kobe for every off-balance, step-back jumper he foolishly attempts. Plus Young already got his four-year, $21.5 million contract from the Lakers, so expect a J.R. Smith like drop-off in production now that Swaggy got his millions. At least we'll always have this GIF.
