10 Teams That Can Make or Break Your Bracket This Year

March Madness is back, and despite what you, I, or any expert or self-described “bracketologist” may suggest, nobody really knows what the hell they’re doing with their brackets. Your fill-ins are equally as valid as mine, as are grandma’s and your dog’s. Single-elimination tournaments, by nature, are subject to harsh and jarring changes. One early upset and your entire region or, worse yet, entire bracket can be tossed out. Another wasted $100 buy-in at work.

If doing research and learning about the key teams before filling out your bracket (or maybe, at the very least, before filling out your sixth or seventh bracket) is important to you, then that’s awesome. Being a slightly more educated basketball fan with a wrong bracket is the only silver lining that most of us will get out of this month, but damn if we won’t enjoy the joyous peaks and ruinous valleys of the Big Dance. Whip your informed choices into shape with nuggets and breakdowns of 10 Teams That Can Make or Break Your Bracket This Year.

Seed and region: No. 2, West Region

Overall record: 31-3

Players to watch: Stanley Johnson, T.J. McConnell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

The Wildcats have the one thing that coaches can’t teach: size and speed. Their roster holds six players 6'9" or above, and the “shorter” guys, like 6'7" forwards Stanley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, use their wingspan and acceleration to lock down the perimeter and grab boards. This team has NBA-ready athletes abound. Arizona pursues the ball and defends the cup better than just about anyone else in the tournament.

They ranked third overall in defensive efficiency, but there are concerns on offense. Teams like to pack the paint against Arizona and force Johnson and Hollis-Jefferson to settle for bad shots, which they’ll maddeningly take. Overall, they’re a poor shooting team from the perimeter, relying on T.J. McConnell to orchestrate quality looks inside (it’s little surprise that they score well as a team, finishing the regular season with a 48.9 shooting percentage).

When those bolder shots fall though (and they do, sometimes), Arizona becomes a juggernaut. The present Wildcat way of contesting every shot and grinding teams to death with their power in the paint seems like a sound strategy for a Final Four run.

Seed and region: No. 7, West Region

Overall record: 26-9

Players to watch:Treveon Graham, Jordan Burgess, Melvin Johnson

The VCU Rams enter the tournament as a wounded seven seed. They were beat badly by Virginia and Villanova earlier in the season, but since suffering a road blowout against Davidson, VCU has turned the corner. They’ve won out since, even beating freshly ranked No. 24 Davidson in the A-10 semifinals/VCU’s best revenge game.

But back to the wounded part: Senior Briante Weber was the spearhead behind the 22nd-most efficient defense in the country, and he’s now tragically sidelined after blowing out his knee. VCU finished with the seventh-highest opponent turnover percentage in the nation, and missing Weber’s furious activity will hurt that.

Their star scoring tandem of senior Treveon Graham and junior Melvin Johnson will have to dominate their isolation looks on offense to carry the burden in Weber’s wake. Graham and Johnson can light it up enough to carry VCU onward, even past No. 2 Arizona in a potential early-round bracket buster.

Seed and region: No. 5, Midwest Region

Overall record: 23-9

Players to watch:Juwan Staten, Jonathan Holton, Devin Williams

In the Midwest region, West Virginia may be the foil to Kentucky’s likely run to the Final Four. These two teams have a chance to meet at the Sweet 16 in Cleveland, and given the heavy favorite that Kentucky is this year, this matchup could be their first uncomfortable test in the tournament.

Senior point guard Juwan Staten has proven that he can raise his game against top opponents (he scored 20-plus points in close wins over Kansas and Oklahoma State last month), but nobody knows how well he’ll play coming back from a knee injury—he has yet to return since twisting it against Texas on February 24. The Mountaineers are much more than one man though, and are capable of matching up 10-deep over the course of a game. Kentucky’s own seemingly unbeatable backup units will be tested against the likes of bench starlets Jevon Carter and Jaysean Paige. For all the non-Kentucky teams that West Virginia will have to go through to get to the Elite 8, good luck with that.

Seed and region: No. 7, East Region

Overall record: 23-11

Players to watch: Brandon Dawson, Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine

Every game from here until the end of the tournament, Tom Izzo will be rolling out seniors Travis Trice and Branden Dawson, and juniors Denzel Valentine, Bryan Forbes, and Matt Costello. That fivesome made it to the Sweet 16 in 2013 and fell in the Elite 8 last March. The senior class has already lost two Sweet 16s. They’re better off for it all, too.

A 23-11 record this season doesn’t scream IMPROVEMENT, but they’ve lost three or four games because of missed free-throws—something that this experienced group has, according to coach Tim Izzo, “taken the onus of.” Done. Their entire starting five shoots above 67 percent from the line, and three of the five shoot above 75 percent. Oh, and they’re all juniors and seniors. They’ve got this.

Tom Izzo has a coach’s dream tournament team: A squad full of star upperclassmen who’ve knocked on the Final Four’s door before and been stung by defeat, being coached by none other than Tim Izzo! The last time he had a Final Four team, it had a similar upperclassmen presence—senior Raymar Morgan was flanked by juniors Chris Allen, Kalin Lucas, and Durrell Summers. The Spartans are way better than their seeding would suggest, and a potential matchup against No. 2 Virginia with a place in the Sweet 16 on the line will put a lot of brackets on notice.

Seed and region: No. 3, Midwest Region

Overall record: 29-5

Players to watch:Jerian Grant, Pat Connaughton, Demetrius Jackson

Whether or not they end up facing Kentucky with a Final Four birth at stake, Notre Dame is a team that has a chance to send a message to Goliath. Whichever Midwest region team beats Kentucky will likely have one foot in the Final Four, and will be instant tournament darlings to press on further. (Or—and this is also very likely—Kentucky just won’t lose.) The concept of Notre Dame being a “darling” isn’t alluring, or really possible, but they’re a straightforward team that, if they execute, opponents are helpless to stop.

Jerian Grant is the puppet master for the Fighting Irish, and arguably the best senior point guard in the nation. They space out shooters all along Grant’s passing diameter, letting him go to work and completely control the offense. If the team sinks their threes like they can (and they have in big wins against Duke, UNC, and Louisville), Grant will lead them deep into the tournament. Kentucky’s freakish size might be what kills off this small-ish, three-point shooting-dependent team, but Notre Dame’s depth at the shooting positions will keep all teams guessing come tournament time.

Seed and region: No. 11, East Region

Overall record: 25-8

Players to watch: Jordan Sibert, Dyshawn Pierre, Kendall Pollard

The Flyers are staying low heading into the tournament this year, and if they can dispose of Boise State tonight, they might end up getting into a shootout with No. 3 seed Oklahoma in the third round. Oklahoma is deathly dependent on jump shots, and a cold shooting night could be forced from Dayton’s quickness on the perimeter. They may lack size, but they’re six-deep at the guard position, and are smart about using skill and speed to generate drives and easy points. It’s a formula that’s been more than enough to get to 25 wins.

On defense, Dayton’s athleticism shines. Scoochie Smith and Kendall Pollard will take the souls of any open catch-and-shooter. Suffocating offenses from the outside-in, they’ll force teams to put the ball on the floor with the expectation that they’ll grab the rebound—second-chance points are hard to come by against the Flyers. Individually, Jordan Sibert’s deep-shooting ability, coupled with Dyshawn Pierre’s hustle in the paint (he’s only 6'6", but he plays like a center), help make Dayton a snifty pick to wreak some havoc in the East.

Seed and region: No. 2, South Region

Overall record: 32-2

Players to watch: Kyle Wiltjer, Kevin Pangos, PrzemekKarnowski

The success of everyone’s South Region depends on how Gonzaga’s chips fall. Will Mark Few, blessed with the most talented, balanced, and explosive team that he’s had at Gonzaga, manage to find a way to underachieve yet again in March? Yeah, that seems like a decent bet. The tournament always roots out the regular season’s overachievers. Gonzaga plays in a wack conference and had a cushy non-conference schedule (their best win was against No. 22 SMU in November), so their puffy record this season doesn’t accurately reflect how good this team is.

It’s hard to say which way the Zags will swing—either their dead-eye shooting shows up against athletic teams, or they go cold, get choked out, and eventually run off the floor. They held their own in a close OT loss to the rowdy rough boys at Arizona in December, so there’s hope here. A weak region makes Gonzaga a comfortable play to advance beyond the first weekend, but then again, it’s Gonzaga. Anything goes with these West Coast Conference cats.

Seed and region: No. 7, Midwest Region

Overall record: 28-4

Players to watch: Ron Baker, Fred VanVleet, Tekele Cotton

Watching Ron Baker pop off should be one of the most fun parts of the tournament, but when it comes to lighting Twitter on fire, Fred VanVleet has loads of untapped meme potential. “VanFleek” may or may not become a thing. This Wichita State team could use a national introduction, and Mr. VanVleet, owner of the sickest last name in Kansas, will be buzzing around Baker’s ingenuity to provide a 1-2 scoring punch. The Shockers have experience and serious production in their first unit, and bright freshmen in Rashard Kelly, Zach Brown, and Shaq Morris coming off the bench.

These kids score with style and drive to the basketball on defense, creating lots of fast scoring opportunities off turnovers. Wichita State’s upperclassmen can body teams for stretches, but an inexperienced, albeit talented bench of big men may put this team in some holes. Coach Gregg Marshall will have to manage his tournament rotations carefully to avoid leaks on defense that his short mid-major squad (they have two players above 6'8" and neither play much) will be prone to. An early clash against Kansas could shake up the region.

Seed and region: No. 11 Midwest Region

Overall record: 20-13

Players to watch: Isaiah Taylor, Myles Turner, Demarcus Holland

Will the most frustratingly inconsistent Big 12 team get it together overnight and emerge in the NCAA Tournament as the team they’re talented enough to be—meaning a Sweet 16 caliber squad? During conference play, they had to endure double whoopings from Kansas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma. They went 3-10 against ranked opponents overall, including a terrible New Year stretch involving seven consecutive losses against the Top 25.

Texas is better than their season has amounted to—upperclassmen Jonathan Holmes and Demarcus Holland have taken their licks against college basketball’s best conference. Against the field, this team should excel. They’re a damn strong 11-seed, but they’re also in the same corner as Kentucky, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Maryland, and everyone’s sleeper, Buffalo. To survive more than a week in the Midwest Region, Texas will need to play with more intensity to get the best out of their mountainous frontline. We’re looking at you, Cameron Ridley.

Seed and region: No. 1, Midwest Region

Overall record: 34-0

Players to watch: Karl Anthony-Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein, Devin Booker

The Wildcats haven’t lost yet. Willie Cauley-Stein, the Harrison twins, and Darkari Johnson are older, experienced from losing last season’s title game, and are accompanied by one of best freshmen classes that Coach John Calipari has ever assembled. Freshman Karl Anthony-Towns might be the best amateur basketball player on the planet, or at least one with the craziest potential. Devin Booker has been as electric of a freshman guard as we’ve seen this season. Where’s the weakness here? Rebounding, maybe? There really isn’t one.

That doesn’t mean an upset can or won’t happen—it just means that when it does, there’ll be a lot more pissed off bracket owners out there. Both the bold and the brainless are taking Kentucky to win it all this year, so if you want to feel smart and smug about your bracket for a few days, take one of their worthy Midwest region rivals to make it out alive in an upset.