Winners & Losers: Russell Wilson Traded to the Broncos

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Russell Wilson wasn’t going to approve a trade just anywhere and this deal to Denver highlighted not only Seattle’s desire to move on but Wilson’s. Washington made a strong offer for Wilson, but Seattle and Wilson were able to steer the 33-year-old star to the AFC. Clearly, Wilson favored Denver’s young core of athletic playmakers and strong defensive backbone over rebuilding in Seattle or taking on a project.

Wilson certainly had his share of solid playmakers in Seattle, but the team was stuck in its own antiquated identity for much of his tenure. It was frustrating to see Seattle prioritize the running game for years instead of taking advantage of Wilson’s dynamic playmaking and accuracy. Few passers are as effortless with their downfield throwing on the move as Wilson.

He’ll go from one of the most inconsistent offensive lines to a solid one, and a group of pass catchers that is deeper than he’s ever played with. It’ll hurt Wilson to not have DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but the favorable scheme new head coach Nathaniel Hackett runs helped produce back-to-back MVP seasons from Aaron Rodgers with worse weapons.

Wilson will be back into the MVP mix and have a chance to go deep into the playoffs, if not reach the Super Bowl. He had little chance of being relevant again as Seattle’s kingdom continued to crumble.

The list of quality veteran quarterbacks who are available has rapidly dissipated. Unless a team like Minnesota, Las Vegas, or Atlanta is persuaded into a deal after seeing the haul Wilson fetched Seattle, the only passer potentially on the market who could completely change a franchise’s outlook is Deshaun Watson. Until Watson’s legal issues are resolved, though, he remains a complete non-factor.

Instead, quarterback-needy teams like Washington, Pittsburgh, Carolina, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and now Seattle have limited options. Jimmy Garoppolo and Carson Wentz are the two most proven veterans, but the former may cost a second-round pick and more to acquire. Wentz continues to underwhelm both on and off the field and will be on his third team in as many years.

The list of free agents has some upside but not much. Jameis Winston is coming off a torn ACL. Marcus Mariota has some upside but has dealt with injuries as well. Mitchell Trubisky didn’t suddenly learn how to read a defense sitting on the bench in Buffalo,.

Going from Teddy Bridgewater/Drew Lock to Russell Wilson is similar to how the Rams went from the 2020 version of Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford. The offense will look completely different not only due to the new coaching staff, but also because Wilson makes the difficult seem simple. Even in an injury plagued 2021 season, Wilson kept the Seahawks afloat in a playoff race they had no business being in.

One reason the Broncos’ offense crawled to 23rd in points is they had playmakers suited for a vertical attack but quarterbacks who couldn’t consistently get the ball downfield. Wilson is as dynamic of a deep passer as any in the NFL. You can bet that Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and KJ Hamler are as happy as any Broncos fan about this move.

Part of Wilson’s brilliance is his ability to create out of structure. Seattle’s offensive lines often forced him out of the pocket prematurely and ruined the unit’s ability to have a timing-based attack. Denver could use some help at right tackle in particular, but otherwise have an above-average grouping.

Expect Wilson to react with as exciting of a season as we’ve seen from the former Super Bowl champion.

Despite speculation the Seahawks will embrace a full rebuild and sell off their best veterans for high picks, it doesn’t make financial sense to simply bottom out. The Seahawks are heavily invested into wide receiver Tyler Lockett, in particular. Trading Lockett would slap the Seahawks’ cap with $18 million in dead money in 2022, all but killing any possibility of a trade for him.

Metcalf is more tradable as a freakish 24-year-old physical specimen. He’s quickly accumulated 3,170 yards and 29 touchdowns on 216 catches through three years but is up for a contract extension. Barring a trade to a team with another superstar downfield passer, Metcalf will also be a loser from this deal.

These are two dynamic pass-catchers who thrived with Wilson’s unique ability to extend plays. Unless Seattle makes another dramatic trade for a quarterback or lands Malik Willis in the 2022 NFL Draft, these receivers will be subject to a painfully limited passing game. Neither Drew Lock nor Geno Smith are capable of producing two 1,000-yard receivers.

Teams will struggle to find a long-term starter in free agency but the group of available quarterbacks will be pleased to earn a starting opportunity for next season. Even with Denver no longer in the market and Seattle potentially happy with their two rostered quarterbacks, the rate for the mediocre starters will rise. The leverage lies with the players for once.

The lack of faith in this year’s draft class is a major reason why so many journeymen will walk into situations they’ll either start or battle for a job after being a backup elsewhere. The crop of rookies could surprise evaluators and produce several early starters, or this could be 2013 all over again with no long-term starters.=

Another interesting wrinkle is how Indianapolis lacks a first-round pick, and how Carolina is short on cap room. We could see each team get creative and move other assets in addition to a draft pick for their starter. Christian McCaffrey and picks could be a more enticing offer for Jimmy Garoppolo than anyone else can offer, for example.

The biggest reason for skepticism on a Russell Wilson deal was Pete Carroll’s presence. He turns 71 this September, and the Seahawks appeared to take a step backward even when considering injuries. It makes sense the lack of impact from draft classes finally caught up to the franchise.

The Seahawks suddenly have a considerable haul of assets available for a trade but must be mindful of the needed youth injection, too. It’s a fine line that Carroll and general manager John Schneider must walk. How they address free agency with Quandre Diggs and Duane Brown headlining potential departures will say a lot about their plans.

It’s possible Carroll is entering the final year or two of coaching. His stint has been massively successful as a whole, but this would be an unfortunate ending if he tries to win with a dramatically worse quarterback than Wilson. His future will be tied to a revamp or a rebuild depending on how the Seahawks utilize the picks acquired.

There’s no question the NFC has gotten weaker at the top. Losing Tom Brady and Russell Wilson in one offseason is huge. Top NFC contenders are thrilled to see the gap increase between the top teams and everyone else.

Green Bay’s Hail Mary with Aaron Rodgers has been the lone good news for the conference thus far this offseason. Arizona’s drama with Kyler Murray and Dallas’ desire to cut their best playmakers to save costs have left the conference top-heavy. It’s hard to imagine right now that anyone but the Rams, 49ers, and Packers will be vying for a top seed.

There’s still plenty of time for major moves to be made. A surprise trade is always lurking, and new scenery might propel an otherwise average quarterback into a star. But for now, the established contenders need to do little more to stay on top.

This trade was terrible news for AFC West defenses. Denver has been a sleeping giant for the last few seasons but continued to deal with subpar quarterback play. That all changes in 2022.

Las Vegas is the obvious team to suffer the most since their roster is clearly behind their competition’s. In the arm’s race of quarterback talent, Derek Carr is suddenly the fourth-best quarterback in the loaded division. We may see him get moved as Josh McDaniels embraces the reality of his roster.

Kansas City, Los Angeles, Denver, and Las Vegas will embark on what looks to be the most difficult divisional schedule in years. The Chargers and Chiefs will re-tool their rosters with Wilson in mind. It’s fair to assume whichever team wins the AFC West will be considered a Super Bowl favorite.

The Broncos general manager pulled off quite the coup in this deal. In the end, he traded the ninth and 40th overall picks in a weak draft class, a likely late first and second-round pick in 2023, a 30-year-old defensive lineman, an athletic but young tight end, and a backup quarterback for the best passer on the trade market in years. It was a no-brainer with little downside.

Denver had few other options after Aaron Rodgers agreed to stay in Green Bay. Walking away with Jerry Jeudy and Javonte Williams still on their roster was an excellent achievement. They successfully avoided overvaluing draft picks in order to give themselves a championship window for the next few years.

The only way Seattle wins their side of the trade is to hit on their draft picks or trade them for an established impact player. Denver didn’t rob them of their star, but also didn’t overpay and hurt their own chances to win in the next two years. This trade immediately puts Paton in the driver’s seat to win NFL Executive of the Year next season.

It’s an especially tough trade for Jamal Adams, who forced his way out of New York so he could cash in and play for a winner. No one will cry as Adams still has a $70 million deal from the Seahawks, but his lack of impact in 2021 and the cost Seattle paid via trade played a part in this deal. He tallied 87 tackles, two interceptions but zero sacks in 12 games last year despite racking up 9.5 sacks in 2020.

Seattle will try to stay relevant but it’s unlikely since the NFC West is deeply talented around them. Wilson kept this team afloat as the defense faded in effectiveness over the last few years. Seattle wouldn’t be able move to Adams until at least 2024 due to the large amount of dead money that would trigger via trade or release. They would only save $9.4 million of his massive $23.6 million cap hit in 2024, and moving him any sooner would cost millions more. 

Life changes quickly in the NFL, and now Adams is stuck in what’s likely another rebuild. Things could get worse fast if Bobby Wagner and DK Metcalf are jettisoned as well.