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While the 2013-14 NBA season is not even a third of the way over, it’s never too early to start thinking about the intriguing 2014 free agency period. Coming on the heels of the most anticipated draft in recent memory, July’s free agency will not be short on intrigue. Expected free agents include stars like LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, in addition to the intriguing 2014 Draft.
There will be no shortage of headlines and stories heading into this absolute bonanza, and fans can expect every team to do as much salary cap maneuvering as possible in order to get in on the action. Many questions are already percolating as to how everything will go down, and events this regular season have already begun to impact the way this summer’s free agency period is expected to unfold. As of today, here are the 10 Biggest Questions of the 2014 NBA Free Agency Period.
If Carmelo Anthony joins the Lakers, can they win the title?
It seems pretty obvious at this point that Carmelo Anthony is going to walk away from the smoldering train wreck in New York and at the very least test the waters of free agency. Waiting with open arms and a ton of cap space? The Los Angeles Lakers. L.A. seems like an ideal fit given the many perks of playing in Southern California for such an historic franchise, but does Melo make them a title contender? Even if Steve Nash retires, between Carmelo and a possibly declining Kobe Bryant, a max deal would tie up almost all of the Lakers' available salary cap space in two players. Considering how many other complete, dynamic teams play in the Western Conference (not to mention both players' ball-hoggishness), the Kobe/Melo experiment would not end in a title.
Is Oklahoma City a title favorite if they can add a couple bench pieces?
It always seems like the Oklahoma City Thunder are one piece short, and you'd be a fool to think things wouldn't be different if they had simply kept James Harden. While we can't dwell on the past, we think it's safe to say they'd like to have that trade back. In any case, though, it's the bench depth that could prove to be the Thunder's Achilles' heel this season in an exceptionally deep Western Conference.
Next year, though, is wide open, and will likely be OKC's best shot at a title. A veteran free agent like Paul Pierce makes a ton of sense for them; he has expressed willingness to come off the bench, has championship experience, and would give them someone who can be a primary scorer in short bursts. Adding a player like that would make OKC a prohibitive title favorite entering the 2014-15 season. Sometimes you have to pay that luxury tax if you want to be the last one standing in June.
Is there any way for the Knicks to salvage their team without totally rebuilding?
In a word, "no." The Knicks are completely hamstrung by their commitments to veteran players who can't be relied upon to contribute every night. Even if Carmelo Anthony walks away, the Knicks still have almost $68 million committed to an old roster next season. Considering early projections have the cap next year around $62 million, you don't have to be a mathematician to realize that the Knicks are, to be kind, screwed; they may well lose their best player-and only reliable scorer-and have absolutely no means of replacing him beyond a sign-and-trade. They will have some trade chips in the expiring contracts of Amare Stoudemire ($23.4 million), Tyson Chandler ($14.6 million) and Andrea Bargnani ($12 million), so all hope isn't lost, but this is hardly the conversation Knick fans were expecting to have at this stage.
Is Kevin Love going to get traded?
All-Star forward Kevin Love will be going into the final year of his contract with the Minnesota Timberwolves, and it seems a mortal lock that he'll be leaving at the end of his deal. For Wolves GM Flip Saunders, then, wouldn't it make sense to try to get as much value as possible for the rebounding machine? Minnesota is a perfectly mediocre 13-13 through their first 26 games; in the stacked Western Conference, that is good for 10th place. Without a high lottery pick and not going to the playoffs, they are stuck in no man's land. Saunders may decide their best course of action is to completely bottom out so that they can truly rebuild after former GM David Kahn squandered so many high lottery picks (looking at you, Jonny Flynn and Derrick Williams), and the first one to go could be Love.
The Lakers have a ton of cap space, but what if they don't land a star?
While the mystique of the Los Angeles Lakers may be enough to pull many players to the franchise, the focus for many in choosing a new team has shifted to being able to win quickly. With an aging Kobe Bryant and not much else, the Lakers may be hard-pressed to lure a true difference-making free agent to the west coast in 2014. But do not despair, Laker fans; local favorites Kevin Love (2015) and Russell Westbrook (2016) are both impending free agents, and pairing the former UCLA Bruins (and roommates!) together may indeed be what GM Mitch Kupchak has in mind long-term.
Whose contract push in 2013-14 is going to get them wildly overpaid?
It's always fun to see who wins the Jerome James Award for "contract year performance that lands the player a disproportionately big deal in the offseason." The leading candidate so far is Utah's Gordon Hayward, who is leading the way for the tanking Jazz by posting the best numbers of his career in almost every statisical category. Phoenix's Eric Bledsoe is running in a close second, although like Hayward, he might actually be a really good player who is just finally getting a chance to show what he can do. To a certain degree, though, any team that offers either of these restricted free agents a big contract will be rolling the dice that they can continue to produce when the burden of expectation is on them.
Is Brooklyn going to try to take on even more veterans?
Thanks to their hideously bloated payroll, the Nets are not going to be able to sign any free agents this offseason for anything other than the veteran minimum. Of their current core, only Paul Pierce will be a free agent after the season, and even if they let him walk (which they probably will), the Nets will still be way over the salary cap. There is the possibility, though, that borderline-insane owner Mikhail Prokhorov will look to swap out some of his current, underachieving squad for other high-priced veterans. They certainly have the contracts to make a sign-and-trade work with any number of players, and who really needs first round picks anyway?
Can Miami keep all three of their stars?
LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh will probably all be members of the Miami Heat in 2014-15 and beyond. However, there's also a possibility that all three could leave, abruptly bringing their mini-dynasty to an end. Each has an early termination clause in their contract, and if they choose to exercise it they can become unrestricted free agents. While the Heat would be free to resign each player, you can bet that other teams will be approaching all three with a pitch that emphasizes an expanded role on offense.
While that probably wouldn't really move the needle much for LeBron or Wade, Bosh might leap at the opportunity to once again be "the man" on a new team. It may seem unlikely, but if the Heat are unable to three-peat it's possible that their run as a trio could be over.
Is Lebron James really going to go back to Cleveland?
The Cavaliers have enough money in expiring contracts to sign a max level player in the summer of 2014. Their obvious target (assuming he opts out of his deal with Miami) is LeBron James, but there's a whole lot of things that need to happen in order for a reunion to take place. LeBron would have to walk away from his contract in Miami which, while possible, does not mean he actually wants to leave. He could simply sign a longer term deal to remain with the Heat, and that would be that. If he is considering leaving South Beach, he has to decide that the rebuilding Cavaliers are a better fit than the title-ready Heat
While he would (of course) make Cleveland an instant contender—and with Kyrie Irving would make one of the league's best duos—it seems far-fetched that LeBron would actually go back to the place he so publicly spurned a few years ago. Especially after that infamous Comic Sans letter from Dan Gilbert.
How will the draft destinations of Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, et al. impact free agent choices?
In the most loaded draft in over a decade, multiple teams are going to be landing potential franchise cornerstones. Considering players like Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins, and Julius Randle will all have new teams before free agency, it bears watching how the draft will impact free agent choices. If, say, the Cavaliers end up getting a top three pick and land Wiggins, might LeBron be more amenable to going back so he could team with Wiggins and Kyrie Irving?
Or if the Bobcats land Parker to go with Al Jefferson and their gobs of cap space, might they actually be able to attract a marquee free agent and become a contender? The draft will be the first domino in what will be a very interesting free agent scramble.
