Predicting Win Totals for All 32 NFL Teams

Before Tom Brady and the defending champion Tampa Bay Bucs kicks off the 2021 season against the Cowboys, I will take you through all 32 teams and projected win totals with analysis. I have marked where I have a personal best bet and where I have put my money where my mouth is. For the rest, I give my opinions for the purpose of the exercise but are not ones that I feel most strongly about. My projections are based on initial power ratings for each team which are then plugged into each team’s schedule and are adjusted for difficult scheduling spots. The cumulative wins are then computed to spit out a fair win total projection.

There are some advanced analytics discussion here so here’s a little primer to help better navigate the analysis if you’re unfamiliar.

DVOA: The main statistic used on Football Outsiders, DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality.

EPA: Expected Points Added tries to better measure the value of individual plays in terms of points. It uses play-by-play data to create a scoring probability for the next play based on field position, down, distance, and time remaining, among other factors. For example, gaining 8 yards on third and 10 is way less valuable than gaining 2 yards on fourth and 1 because the latter increases that team’s chances of scoring on that drive.

Net Rest Advantage: Season long calculation of number of extra days rest one team has versus their opponents. For example, a team coming off a Sunday game would have a net rest of +1 if they were playing a team coming off a Monday night game.

Best Bets:

Carolina over 7.5 -120

Denver over 8.5 -150

Jacksonville over 6.5 +120

New Orleans under 9 -120

New York Giants under 7 +110

I have Arizona as the most average team in the NFL this season. There are reasons to like the Cardinals, considering Kyler Murray and that offense always has a shot to produce big plays. JJ Watt is a solid complement to Chandler Jones; however Jones is disgruntled and nobody knows how that plays out this season and Watt needs to prove he can stay healthy. The Cardinals secondary is in flux considering starting CB Malcolm Butler is considering retirement and veteran Patrick Peterson left in free agency. The Cardinals currently are expected to face the ninth toughest schedule of opponents based on current win totals. The NFC West is by far the toughest division and the only division that currently has three teams with short odds to make the playoffs. Because of the uncertainty with two of Arizona’s top defenders on top of a brutal division and overall tough schedule I will lean under here.

Based on Atlanta’s negative 18-point differential, the 2020 Falcons played more like a 7.5-win team instead a 4-12 team. Atlanta had a plus 28-point differential entering the 4th quarter. Since 1990 no team with a differential through three quarters of at least 27 has won less than six games. It’s easy to see why considering the Falcons blew five 4th quarter leads with under 2 minutes remaining. The good news is Atlanta faced the toughest schedule last season, based on DVOA strength of schedule, and are expected to face a schedule that is easier than average this season. New coach Arthur Smith brings with him a very successful play-action heavy attack and Matt Ryan should prosper, considering the similarity to the Kyle Shanahan offense run during the Falcons’ Super Bowl season. The Atlanta defense is not very good, but they are expected to face a bottom 10 schedule of opposing offenses this season, including four of the bottom five in EPA per play last season, in their first five games. This win total reflects much of the bounce back from tough luck last season, but I lean over with the Falcons this year.

The Ravens have been one of the most consistent franchises, winning at least 10 games in eight of John Harbaugh’s 13 seasons with the Ravens. Lamar Jackson is 30-7 as a starter and the Ravens have only lost two games by more than 6 points in his career starts. This was a slam dunk over for me two weeks ago, but losing WR Rashad Bateman and RB JK Dobbins really does hurt. Even so, the Ravens do have possibly the best secondary in the NFL and did a nice job revamping their pass rush with the addition of veteran DE Justin Houston. It is really hard to fade this Ravens team, considering their consistency and Lamar’s track record, so I will take the over here on Baltimore.

The offense was phenomenal last year, ranking 2nd in EPA, and with offensive coordinator Brian Daboll’s aggressive approach (No. 2 highest pass rate on early downs in the first three quarters) and much of the offense back, the Bills should continue to dominate on offense. The Bills have covered the spread at a clip of over 60 percent in three of four seasons with Sean McDermott as head coach and have cleared or pushed their preseason win totals in all four years. Defensively, the Bills ranked 12th in DVOA but did so without a real pass rush (23rd in pressure rate). Hope is that rookies Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham can improve the defense. Buffalo is playing a top 10 easiest schedule and get to play three home games late against warm weather or dome teams. I typically don’t love taking over such a high win total but will do so with the Bills.

I like the Panthers this year as a potential sleeper team in the NFC. Incoming QB Sam Darnold was terrible last season, but he is headed to a team with a much better offensive philosophy. Now Darnold is supported by a great RB weapon in Christian McCaffery and one of the best receiving corps in the NFL. With Darnold and Robby Anderson in the lineup with the Jets, the team went 11-14 (2-11 without) and Darnold produced a higher yards per attempt (6.9 vs 6.0), yards per game (229 vs 181), TD percentage (4.2% vs 2.5%) and QB rating (83.6 vs 72) than with Anderson out of the lineup.

The Panthers went 3-8 in one score games while facing the second-toughest schedule last season. The Panthers are expected to face a slightly easier than average schedule and are only facing four teams that are currently favored to make the playoffs (Dallas, Buffalo, TB twice). Carolina faces Tampa in Week 18 and there is a chance the Bucs could rest their starters which gives the Panthers a shot at a freebie win they normally wouldn’t get. Carolina doesn’t face an opponent coming off a bye all season and also gets to play two games against opponents coming off a Monday night game. This over is one of my favorites and if Darnold is just average, the Panthers could be in line for a playoff berth.

As an Ohio State alum I really wanted to like the Bears because of Justin Fields, but it’s really hard to. The offensive line is one of the worst and the Bears will be without second-round pick Teven Jenkins. In addition, due to salary cap concerns, the Bears defense is ultra-thin and their secondary is a weakness after losing Kyle Fuller. The Bears are expected to face the toughest set of opposing offenses in the NFL this season and also have to deal with the league’s second-worst net rest advantage. Week 14-16 is one of the most brutal stretches any team will face all year as the Bears face Green Bay, the Vikings on Monday night the following week with Minnesota off a Thursday game. Then they travel to Seattle the following Sunday. Between the schedule, negative rest differential, and the poor line in front of a rookie QB, the Bears are a clear under for me.

This is a toss up, but the schedule is just brutal for Cincinnati this season (fifth toughest) and they will never catch a breather in the division. QB Joe Burrow should tremendous promise last year but there are concerns following his torn ACL. The Bengals should be able to move the ball well on offense, but the offensive line will continue to be a problem. The Bengals did not do much to improve their offensive line, outside of signing RT Riley Reiff. The line last season ranked 31st in adjusted line yards and 25th in adjusted sack rate. The defense will most likely struggle to stop opposing passing games, considering they ranked 25th in EPA per drop back allowed last season and lost top cover CB William Jackson. In addition, Zac Taylor is dead man walking and is 6-25-1 straight up as an NFL head coach, including 2-13-1 in one score games. There are just too many issues with this team on top of the tough schedule to do anything but take the under.

Let’s first discuss the elephant in the room—the Browns negative 11-point differential. The Browns were the only team in the NFL to not only make the playoffs with a negative point differential but also the only team to win at least nine games. They were also 7-2 in one score games, but that is misleading. The Browns had the ninth-best scoring margin in the first half of games last season, but allowed a league leading five TDs in the final 2:20 of games, where they held a lead of greater than one score. The Browns defense also allowed an absurd 100 percent conversion rate on 11 fourth down attempts in the fourth quarter of games last year and is a big reason why the margins in their games were unnecessarily close. It’s also why they revamped their defense with potentially 7-to-8 new starters on defense. The offense was held back a bit with three awful weather games midway through the season, but still posted the 10th best EPA offense and should be good again. The Browns sport one of the top offensive lines in football and should be able to run the ball efficiently to go along with QB Baker Mayfield and his seventh-ranked EPA per drop back rank. The Browns are expected to face the third-easiest schedule in the NFL and will face the second-easiest schedule of opposing run defenses. Add in a full season from Odell Beckham Jr. and this offense can be even more dynamic to go with an improved defense.

As usual this win total is begging bettors to take the over. Obviously, the return of QB Dak Prescott is huge and their line will inevitably be healthier after finishing last year with the second-most adjusted games lost due to injury at the position, which should lead to a really good offense this year. It’s hard enough to assume Prescott’s ankle is back to full health, but now we have a shoulder issue to deal with. That’s a huge risk here. Defensively this team was a disaster last season, ranking 25th in EPA per play allowed. What’s even worse is that they performed poorly against the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL. Rookie LB Micah Parsons alone can’t solve all of their defensive issues. Give me the under here for Dallas.

The Broncos have tons of positive regression coming from bad luck due to injuries and turnovers. Last year the Broncos were hit hard even before the season started with the loss of Von Miller and had the seventh-highest adjusted games lost due to injury. Who can forget having to start practice squad WR Kendal Hinton as the emergency QB against the Saints? They also lost more EPA due to turnovers than any other team in the NFL and faced the 5th toughest schedule overall. Now they are expected to face the second-easiest schedule according to current win totals. New QB Teddy Bridgewater ranked seventh in completion percentage over expectation and was tied for 1st in adjusted completion percentage on short throws. The defense will be this team’s calling card and on paper looks to be one of the best in the NFL, including potentially the best and deepest secondary. If Bridgewater can just provide a steady hand at QB and is able to deliver the football in the right spots and not make mistakes, this team should win double-digit games.

I usually am not a fan of taking an under on a win total as low as this but this roster is just so bad and the coaching staff is full of dolts who have no clue what they are doing (i.e. Dan Campbell and Anthony Lynn). The Lions front office is in tank mode and its debatable how hard they will try and win games late in the season. Jared Goff was a major beneficiary of the coaching from Sean McVay in LA and won’t have that crutch with Lynn in Detroit. The WR corps is atrocious and won’t be of help to Goff. Even rookie Tackle Penei Sewel, who was expected to be a bright spot, was awful in preseason action. The Lions are going to face a top five toughest schedule and have to play outdoors in cold environments late in the season at Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Denver, and Seattle. Goff has always struggled in cold weather in his career. Bad roster, bad coaching, and a tough schedule means under for me.

Count me as someone who won’t assume that all of the controversy with Aaron Rodgers is just going to go away all of the sudden. It is nice in theory to think all sides will toss everything under the rug, but this one last dance thing is not something I can recall ever seeing in the NFL. Green Bay was awesome on offense last year and benefitted from having a tremendous OL last season, ranking No. 2 in pass block efficiency by PFF. However, they are starting the first six games of the season without All-Pro tackle David Bakhtiari and lost PFF’s top graded center from last season, Corey Linsley, to the Chargers in free agency. Two to three members of the offenisve line have never played a snap in the NFL. Also, Rodgers got to face the second-easiest set of opposing pass defenses last season, but is expected to face the eighth-toughest this year. The Packers were No. 1 in 3rd down efficiency and that is always difficult to replicate the following season. The Packers are also due for regression in one score games after producing a close game record of 12-3 the last two seasons. Green Bay will still be a solid team, but because the over is a heavy public play and there is no way to expect that offense to be as dynamite again, I will go under here.

This roster is bad. We often have heard in the past about how certain teams are the worst we might have ever seen and then those teams pull out enough wins to clear the over. The 2017 Jets’ O/U opened at 3.5 and they won five games while the 2019 Dolphins had an O/U of 4.5 and won five games. Tyrod Taylor, David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, and Philip Lindsey at least have had a track record of success in the NFL. Maybe teams will let down when facing Houston and they can pick up a few Ws along the way. My projections have Houston with 4.4 wins so I will begrudgingly take the over.

I bet this under back earlier in the summer when it was at 10, but I have this modeled at 8.3 so I would lean under here at 9 as well. Last season the Colts faced the single-easiest schedule in the NFL and also led the league in EPA from turnovers on both sides of the ball. Indy has an easy schedule again, but they have the most difficult schedule in the first half of the season when they face six teams favored to make the playoffs. The rails can come off quick. I am also not a believer in QB Carson Wentz, even if he is healthy, and his MVP caliber season in 2017 with Frank Reich was a mirage. He led the NFL by a mile in third and fourth down efficiency, but ranked in the 20s on early downs. He hasn’t replicated that play again in his career and I don’t expect it to improve behind an OL down to their third string LT. This win total has plummeted but between some negative turnover regression, no belief in Wentz and a tougher schedule. I still think it’s an eight-win team.

I have been betting the Jags as a long shot to win the AFC South since back in May at 8-1 and I do like this over. The Jags finished 1-6 in one score games and based on point differential should have been more of a four-win team instead of a 1-15 team. It remains to be seen if new head coach Urban Meyer has what it takes to completely turn around this Jaguar franchise, but recent Year 1 examples of coaches coming from college has been positive. The last seven head coaches who made the jump from college to the pros improved their team’s win total by an average of nearly four wins the next year and three of the seven teams made the playoffs in their first year. QB Trevor Lawrence could follow suit of Andrew Luck, who took a 2-14 Colts team prior to his arrival and turned them into a 11-5 team. The average rookie season for No. 1 overall QBs since 2000 equates to a win percentage of 39, which equates to 6.6 wins in a 17 game season. Lawrence has good weapons as well and the division is the worst in the AFC so over is the play for me.

I definitely wouldn’t put money on this, but if forced to pick a side I would take the under. The Chiefs were 8-1 in one score games last season and finished with just the sixth-highest point differential in the NFL. Only two other teams in NFL history had a point differential as low as the Chiefs’ +111 and won 14-plus games. The Chiefs did add to their offensive line after the Super Bowl debacle but they are very thin at wide receiver behind Tyreek Hill. I expect both the Chargers and Broncos to be much improved so this schedule and division will not be easy. I have KC as my second-highest power rated team, but when I project the season I come up with a 11.4 wins. Why am I still nervous? It’s because the Chiefs have cleared their win total in every season Andy Reid has been the head coach.

It is always dangerous to take a Chargers win total over, but when you eliminate Anthony Lynn and replace him with a sharper coach in Brandon Staley, it makes me feel better about it. It all starts with QB Justin Herbert after producing one of the best seasons of any rookie QB in NFL history. He did so while posting unsustainable performance under pressure. The counter is he most likely won’t have to deal with an extremely conservative offensive system. The Chargers ranked 21st in first down pass rate in one score game situations. It will also help that LA revamped their poor line by drafting tackle Rashawn Slater and PFF’s top graded center in Linsley. As long as the defense doesn’t suffer from bad injury luck and can keep Joey Bosa and Derwin James healthy, this should be a 10-win team.

This is probably the win total that I am on the fence with the most. The obvious upgrade at QB with Matthew Stafford is tantalizing here, but at the same time this roster continues to be very top heavy and the defense took a major hit with the loss of defensive coordinator Brandon Staley and defensive backs John Johnson and Troy Hill. They did nothing to replace those players, their depth is extremely thin, and they have to face the second-toughest set of opposing offenses this season. They benefitted last season from virtually no injuries (second in adjusted games lost due to injury) and we saw what happened when Aaron Donald could barely play against the Packers in the playoffs. The Rams clearly have Super Bowl upside but they are going to have to avoid some hurdles along the way.

My projections have the Raiders winning 6.8 games. Based on current win totals, they are facing the toughest schedule in the NFL and QB Derek Carr will have to go up against the second-toughest schedule of opposing pass defenses. A former strength of the team, the offensive line, will see some turnover with veteran C Rodney Hudson gone and will be replaced by Andre James who produced a horrible 1.4 PFF pass blocking grade on 116 snaps in 2019. That Raiders defense has ranked 32nd, 31st, and 29th in EPA in three seasons under Jon Gruden and they did nothing substantial on defense to think this won’t continue to be a bottom 10 defense again. Add in the fact that there won’t be a big home field advantage as many road fans will flock to Las Vegas, and this looks like a long season for the Raiders.

This is another close one for me, but I have an 8.9 win projection. There are two sides to this Miami coin that I am struggling with. The defense ranked seventh in EPA, but only 24th in yards per play. The high EPA rank is because Miami gained the most EPA in the NFL from turnovers and ranked first by a mile in allowing the lowest third down conversion rate over expected. Both of those stats should negatively regress significantly this season. On offense, however, I expect a big step-up from Tua Tagovailoa who gets a legitimate set of weapons with WRs Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle in the mix. Although he only ranked 27th in EPA per drop back last season, his numbers weren’t as bad when compared to other rookie QBs historically. He actually gets a full offseason, is not coming off a major injury, and is expected to face the second-easiest pass defense schedule in the NFL.

I would like under 9 if that’s available, as my projections have the Vikings at 8.4, but for the purposes of this exercise I will just lean under. A lot of people are expecting a bounce back from Minnesota and can see reasons why. From a high level they should see better injury luck on defense and their offense was 10th best in EPA. The defense should be better organically because they get key players back from injury like Anthony Barr and Danielle Hunter, but it is also hard to expect that between Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen that they will only miss a combined three games this season like last season. In addition, their offense looks good in the stat line but is also skewed to garbage time stat padding. They were 22nd in first half scoring margin and had to come from behind a lot last year. When you filter for win probabilities over 10 percent, their offensive EPA rank drops to 14th, so not as impressive as the overall stats might suggest. Not to mention potential Covid concerns at QB.

Last season, no team was hurt more by opt-outs and games missed due to Covid than the Patriots. New England had eight total opt-outs, the most in the NFL. The talent on that roster was really poor last year and the Patriots still managed to win seven games. And they did it against the 12th toughest schedule which makes it even more impressive. The Patriots are starting Mac Jones at QB and loaded up in free agency along with the Covid opt-outs. It’s never fun to fade Belichick and the roster is so much better than last year so I will reluctantly take this over.

Going from Drew Brees pinpoint accuracy and ball security to Jameis Winston will be a culture shock in New Orleans. The Saints are missing three offensive weapons from last season when Michael Thomas is included. Winston was a turnover machine in Tampa (30 INTs in 2019) with some of the best weapons in the NFL, so this is a major hurdle for him. The Saints excellent defense took some hits due to the salary cap and they lost five starters. The Saints will have to rely on rookies and backups to maintain a top ten defense. They had the fourth-best injury luck last year and now also have to face the seventh-toughest overall schedule. With no home field advantage for the first handful of weeks in the season due to Hurricane Ida, this is a clear under for me.

This is a clear under for me and it wouldn’t surprise me if Daniel Jones doesn’t make it for the full season. The Giants will face the second-toughest set of pass rushes, based on 2020 pressure rates of opponents, with an offensive line that ranked second-worst in pass block efficiency. But wait there’s more. Based on EPA per drop back, the Giants are expected to face the single toughest set of pass defenses as well. I have no faith in this quarterback, offensive line, or the guy calling the plays, Jason Garrett. That equals under for me even with decent enough play from their defense.

I have the Jets winning 6.5 games based on projections, so I like the over, especially if somebody’s giving you plus odds. The Jets should see some improvement after finishing 26th in fumble luck and 29th in adjusted games lost from injury. It remains to be seen if QB Zach Wilson is a future star, but he does have some solid weapons to throw to like free agent WR Corey Davis. While AJ Brown received all the pub last year with the Titans, Davis quietly finished fifth in the NFL in yards per route run. The Jets were atrocious on offense last season and the production can only improve. Last season, the Jets ranked dead last in red zone TD percentage and on third down conversions over expected. New offensive coordinator Mike Lafleur brings the Kyle Shanahan offense to New York and that system has worked pretty much everywhere. The defense is a concern and the secondary is one of the worst in the NFL. The good news is new head coach Robert Saleh has proven that he can squeeze out production from backups like he did last season with the injury-plagued Niners defense.

Philadelphia was absolutely decimated by injuries to their offense last season. The offensive line especially was beaten up and the Eagles led the NFL in adjusted games lost along the line. QB Jalen Hurts may not be a good pocket passer but adds an exciting dimension to the offense with his playmaking ability. Excluding the Week 17 tanking session against Washington, the Eagles averaged 22.3 points per game and ranked 17th in EPA offense in his three starts to end the season.The Eagles defense catches a break this season as Philadelphia is expected to face the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the NFL. Up and coming defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon inherits a defensive front that generated the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL last season as well. I don’t love this Eagles team, but six wins is a low bar in a bad division with a playmaking QB and a solid defense.

There has been so much talk about how the Steelers will take a step back this season and how last season’s 12-win team was a mirage. I agree but so does the market, considering this deflated 8.5 total. The Steelers have won at least eight games in every season since 2004, which is staggering. Even with the awful Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges at QB, Pittsburgh won eight games in 2019. The offensive is subpar but Ben Roethlisberger does have a good wide out corps and new offensive coordinator Matt Canada brings much more +EV philosophies like more pre-snap motion. In addition, not many people are questioning that the Steelers defense is still a top five unit and that gives this team a higher floor. The schedule does go from the second-easiest to second-toughest which also probably puts a cap on their ceiling as well.

First and foremost, the Niners are expected to face the easiest schedule in the NFL and that includes cakewalks against Detroit and Houston. They will be favored in their first 11 games and I have them as underdogs only two times all season (at Seahawks and at Rams). The Niners are a clear positive regression candidate, although the win total reflects this. They had the worst injury luck in the NFL last year and also led the NFL in EPA lost on offense due to turnovers. Even with all of those issues and a revolving door at quarterback, they still finished with the sixth-ranked DVOA defense and 20th-ranked offense. I will take the over here because of the soft schedule, potential for better injury luck, and I believe in Kyle Shanahan to utilize all the weapons at his disposal, including using Trey Lance, to produce a top offense.

This number is right on the dot for me, but for this exercise I will take the over. With Russell Wilson at QB, Seattle has never won less than nine games in a season, so the high floor is there. Look out for rookie WR D’Wayne Eskridge, and his 4.38 40-yard dash, to potentially provide the Seahawks with another dynamic weapon. Well, assuming Pete Carrol stays out of the way, that is. The defense just has to be mediocre for Seattle to compete for this division.

This is not a total I would bet either way but I am taking the under 12 wins since I have to. It’s really hard to win 13 or more games. Yes, Tampa brought every key player back from last season, but is that necessarily a great thing? The Bucs were one Jared Cook fumble away from losing to New Orleans in the divisional round of the playoffs and maybe this roster looks a lot different and this win total probably is only 10.5 right now. As a reminder, Tampa finished the regular season at 11-5 and they had the highest variance of week-to-week performance, according to Football Outsiders’ variance metric. Also, Tampa finished No. 1 in least number of adjusted games lost due to injury and recovered fumbles at the fourth-highest-rate in the NFL. While Tampa is going to be very good again, those are things that are difficult to repeat and could put 13 wins or more in jeopardy.

A lot of the Titans’ expected regression is built into this win total. My projections have the Titans with 10.3 wins, although I am not confident. Tennessee finished 7-2 in one score games. Since 2016, there have been 19 teams with a one-score win percentage of at least 75 percent and all but one of those teams had a worse one score record the next season. In aggregate, those 19 teams posted a win percentage of 48 in close games the next season. They also finished with sixth-best injury luck and ranked No. 1 in redzone offense. Now they are without Arthur Smith and RB Derrick Henry has the potential to see his wheels fall off following an absurd 396 attempts when including the playoffs. The defense will still be atrocious as they did not make any major moves outside of overpaying Bud Dupree, coming off a late season torn ACL. The issue with fading the Titans is that the division is so bad and I have them favored in 12 games this season, tied for fifth most in the NFL.

There are a lot of things to like in Washington and this team will very well be better overall than they were last season, but I am leaning under here. The Football Team posted excellent defensive metrics, ranking third-best in DVOA. However, they faced a Charmin soft set of opposing QBs. They faced zero top 10 EPA QBs in the regular season, faced five backup QBs, and went 0-5 against Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, and Tom Brady. This season they will be facing four of the five best QBs in the NFL, based on EPA per drop back last season. WFT is expected to face the sixth-toughest schedule after facing the fifth-easiest one season ago. The offense will be better and more explosive with YOLO Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, but I am not sure that will offset the decline in the defensive metrics you would expect based on that schedule of opposing QBs.