Steph Curry LeBron James Staples Center 2021
Whether you love or loathe the concept of the Play-In Tournament—I tend to side with LeBron James on this one—the NBA’s new wrinkle debuts Tuesday and hopefully it delivers some desired drama.
Featuring the two most successful franchises in NBA history, a pint-sized scoring champ having a career year, the polarizing triple-double king, the likely Rookie of the Year, last season’s Rookie of the Year, a team in turmoil, and a Spurs squad led by Gregg Popovich who’s rocking a biker’s mane these days, the Play-In Tournament, as Stefon from Saturday Night Live would say, has everything. Plus, the stakes are pretty high. Four out of the eight teams will officially earn inclusion into the 2021 NBA Playoffs while the other teams can start their summer as soon as Thursday.
If you’re still unfamiliar with how the Play-In Tournament works, here goes: We’re playing to determine the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in each conference. The 7th and 8th seeded teams play each other, winner earns the 7th seed. The 9th and 10th seeds play each other, winner moves on to play the loser of the 7-8 matchup. Winner of that game earns the 8th seed.
Got it? Good. Now here’s what you need to know, what you can expect from Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s games, plus some necessary predictions before the regular ol’ playoffs—like we’re all used to with seven-game series from the first-round through the NBA Finals—tip Saturday. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the show. And if these games are duds, know that LeBron will not hesitate to remind everyone he was right.
Eastern Conference
Pacers/Hornets winner plays Celtics/Wizards loser Thursday for right to be the No. 8 seed.
No. 9 Pacers vs. No. 10 Hornets
TV: Tuesday, 6:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Spread: Pacers -3
How the Pacers advance: Do you believe in the power of prayer? The Pacers limp into the Play-In Tournament having lost seven of their final 12 games, dealing with a ton of injuries, and speculation swirling around the future of coach Nate Bjorkgren who could be on his way out since he’s reportedly rubbed so many players the wrong way. They won’t have defensive stopper Myles Turner underneath the basket. Jeremy Lamb is not available. They may not have Malcolm Brogden, either (he’s listed as questionable as of Tuesday morning). This feels like a team that’s achingly ready for the offseason and unless Domantas Sabonis and Caris LeVert go sicko mode on the Hornets, the Pacers just might not have enough bodies to extend their season at least one more game.
How the Hornets advance: Execute like usual. While Charlotte and Indiana analytically are pretty similar, it’s notable that the Hornets owned the second best offensive rating in clutch situations this season while the Pacers finished 29th. The Hornets were also significantly superior at taking care of the ball down the stretch of close games (11.6 TOV%) compared to the Pacers (14.8 TOV%). So what does that mean? The Hornets are just better at taking care of business at the offensive end when it really matters and considering they took two of the three in the season series, including an April win in Indiana without the services of LaMelo Ball, the Hornets don’t exactly have to reinvent themselves to keep it moving.
No. 7 Celtics vs. No. 8 Wizards
TV: Tuesday, 9 p.m. ET, TNT
Spread: Celtics -2
How the Celtics advance: Is Larry Bird walking through that door? Boston’s been brutal all season long, struggling to string along consistent performances and painfully underachieved. The idea that the Celtics will just flip a switch now that it’s technically the postseason (but not really) sounds like something only your cousin from Boston six Sam Adams would say. Losers of 10 of their final 15 games, it kind of feels like the Celtics need a superstar effort out of Jayson Tatum to have a chance in this one since Jaylen Brown is done for the season and you just never know what to expect from the supporting cast. Sure, Kemba Walker started acting like the old Kemba for a four-game stretch (before sitting out the final three games) and Evan Fournier finally showed why the Celtics traded for him at the deadline. Tatum absolutely needs points in bunches from those two, but really this comes down to whether Boston has the bodies to stop Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook. For my money, they don’t.
How the Wizards advance: Let DC’s dynamic duo cook. The Wizards dropped two of three to the Celtics during the regular-season, but one of those happened to be a 1-point loss back in late February and Washington’s been playing consistently better basketball during the season’s final few months, having won 17 of their final 23 games. Beal went beast mode on Boston in the three matchups, averaging 39.3 points per game and we’ve all watched Westbrook morph into prime Russ to drag this Wizards squad into position to steal a playoff spot after their abysmal start to the season. This is going to sound overly simplistic, but if Beal and Westbrook get their numbers the Celtics are screwed. Boston was fifth in adjusted defensive rating last year. This season, Boston finished 15th and enter the Play-In Tournament without one of their top perimeter defenders.
Predictions: Wizards over Celtics, Hornets over Pacers, Hornets over Celtics
Western Conference
Grizzlies/Spurs winner plays Lakers/Warriors loser Friday for right to be No. 8 seed.
No. 9 Grizzlies vs. No. 10 Spurs
TV: Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Spread: Grizzlies -3
How the Grizzlies advance: Well, if anyone knows how to operate in a single-game elimination scenario it’s the Grizzlies who went through it last year in the bubble. So if you believe experience in a play-in scenario counts for something, Memphis has the edge. If you’re more concerned with the actual basketball being played, it’s most important to remember that the Grizzlies are basically healthier than they’ve been all season long while San Antonio is practically the opposite. The Grizzlies took 2-of-3 from the Spurs in the regular-season and won by an average of 24 points. San Antonio took the season opener with three Spurs pouring in 20-plus points. One of those players, LaMarcus Aldridge, has since retired.
How the Spurs advance: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. The Spurs feel like a bit of a mystery to me and I’m betting I’m not the only one on that wave. Yeah, San Antonio is good enough to compete with the better teams and pull out wins when they catch a playoff-caliber squad napping, but at the same time how do they actually do it? They were putrid down the stretch of the season, losing 10 of their final 12 games, and getting torched on defense. San Antonio finished an abysmal 21st in net rating, plays decidedly old-school basketball by relying heavily on the mid-range game of DeMar DeRozan and company, and we all know that isn’t exactly a recipe for success in the modern NBA. Maybe their living legend of a coach has a great gameplan cooked up that will stifle Ja Morant who averaged 25.3 points per game this season against San Antonio, but without the services of Derrick White it ain’t going to be easy.
No. 7 Lakers vs. No. 8 Warriors
TV: Wednesday, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Spread: Lakers -7
How the Lakers advance: Show up with AD and LeBron? Seriously, if the Lakers have a moderately healthy and operational LeBron James (he tweaked his ankle in the regular-season finale) and Anthony Davis then the Warriors basically have a snowball’s chance in Hell of pulling off the upset. Sure, I’ll give you that it’s not inconceivable to picture Golden State eeking out a win here, but it feels improbable. Led by the NBA’s leading scorer in Steph Curry, we all know the Warriors lack the manpower and size to really push the Lakers in a series. One-game scenarios are different, of course, but it’s hard to bet against LeBron in a postseason-like setting where he’s proven he can flip the switch. Even if the Lakers somehow lose this game, they still get a crack at the winner of Grizzlies-Spurs—incredibly easy prey—so take it to the bank the defending champs will make the playoffs. We’re really just waiting to find out whether they get the Jazz or Suns in the first-round.
How the Warriors advance: Steph goes for 82? The severely undermanned and out-gunned Warriors will need a superhuman effort out of their point guard. That or hope the Lakers are really, really rusty having barely played with each other over the season’s final few months and/or LeBron’s extra gimpy. Seriously, those feel like the only non-batshit-crazy scenarios in which Golden State pulls off the upset at Staples Center. We could see LA struggling to get into rhythm since LeBron’s missed so much time, Dennis Schröder only recently returned after a two-week COVID absence, Andre Drummond’s still new, and Frank Vogel will unleash his condensed playoff rotations. If LA’s shots aren’t falling and Curry starts cooking, the Warriors earning the 7th seed is conceivable. I would just advise against betting on it.