The 7 Most Important Questions Before Game 1 of the NBA Finals

If you’re a betting man, there’s no way you placed a wager on the Suns to win it all before the season started. Because why would you waste your money on a team that oddsmakers pegged as 100-1 longshots to win the franchise’s first championship?

Phoenix’s rabid fan base, since it’s so good at landing shots, probably had a few nuts who took a flyer at cashing in on those long odds before the 2020-21 regular season tipped off in December. But even they would have to admit it’s kind of crazy that the Suns could finally be on the verge of an NBA championship after 53 years of existence, the past of 10 of which featured a lot of dark days.

NBA observers thought the Suns, a talented but still very young squad, had a chance to sneak into the playoffs after the offseason acquisition of Chris Paul changed everyone’s outlook. But the idea of earning the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference seemed absurd, only slightly less ridiculous than the idea of Phoenix going on a run that would have them take out the Lakers, Nuggets, and Clippers on their way to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1993.

Yet here we are. In a season full of turmoil and agonizing twists and turns nobody could see coming, the Finals tipping in Phoenix Tuesday night feels pretty damn appropriate given the 72-games of chaos and the topsy-turvy first three rounds of the playoffs. The Suns, of course, will host the Bucks, a team whose run to its first finals since 1974 wasn’t nearly as far-fetched as Phoenix’s. It’s a matchup that you either find extremely intriguing since you’re a serious basketball fan or a yawner since it’s bereft of the kind of star power (where have you gone LeBron James?) we’ve become accustomed to seeing on the NBA’s biggest stage.

As always, there are important questions that must be asked and only hours before the league’s showcase event tips off we’re throwing them out there for public discussion. The answers aren’t obvious, and may not be revealed for a week or two, but that just comes with the territory when we’ve reached this point of the NBA calendar.

I’m joking, but not really. It was a brutal regular season. The playoffs have featured more All-Stars missing games than any other postseason in league history. There’s constant talk about placing an asterisk on this year’s champion. We’re at a time on the calendar when we’re normally done with basketball and our attention turns to other summer-y things to do outside instead of inside. And it’s Phoenix vs. Milwaukee, a matchup nobody predicted back in December.

Serious basketball fans will, of course, be tuned in for every Finals game, however long the series lasts between two of the better regular season squads. But it’s fair to point out that the star power of these NBA Finals will be severely lacking. A Finals without LeBron James, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, or whatever other high-profile superstar you want to throw in the mix is going to have a direct effect on the buzz and seriously impact casual interest in the league’s marquee event. While I can easily make a case that these Finals are an extremely intriguing matchup, the ratings are going to take a hit—not a big deal to casual sports fans, but a very big deal to the league and to ESPN/ABC who will televise all the games—considering it’s two mid-market franchises going at it with only one discernable star (CP3 thanks to those ubiquitous State Farm commercials) who has any kind of national profile. Giannis Antetokounmpo may be a top 5 NBA player and hardcore fans know he’s a monster, try asking a random sports fan about him and it very easily could be crickets.

While I’ll forever argue it’s great for sports to see new blood on the biggest stage, the NBA’s bottom line is probably going to take a hit with these Finals. While you may not care about it unless you’re into that sort of thing, the NBA obviously does for a lot of reasons and considering this is only the second NBA Finals without LeBron James since 2010 and features two franchises lacking national followings, these could turn out to be the most forgettable Finals since Spurs-Cavs in 2007 or Heat-Thunder in 2012. Unless we get some crazy drama. Which, apparently, we’re due for.

The second most important question of these Finals. We don’t know if the Greek Freak is going to suit up. “It’s just a day-to-day thing,” Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer said over the weekend. He’s officially listed as doubtful for Game 1. He’s expected to play at some point, but the horrifically hyperextended left knee he suffered in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals will cast a major shadow over the series. Should he return, can we really expect him to be 100 percent? That might be asking too much. The Bucks deserve major props for taking care of business against the Hawks in Games 5 and 6 to advance to the Finals without Antetokounmpo’s services. But if he misses multiple games—or worst-case scenario he sits the entire Finals—it’ll be one helluva upset if the Bucks win their first title since 1971.

CP3 had the game of his life when the Suns closed out the Clippers last week. Putting up 41 points—of which 31 came in the second half—was a pretty damn emphatic way to earn a berth in your first Finals. It was yet another awesome performance out of the 36-year-old Point God who has averaged 24.8 PPG over the Suns’ last two series. And he’s been doing it with a bum shoulder that hobbled him in the Lakers series. Then he tested positive for COVID just as the Western Conference Finals started and later we learned Paul has partially torn ligaments in his shooting hand.

He ain’t exactly limping to the finish line, but the wear and tear of Paul’s 16th NBA season and the longest playoff run of his career must be pointed out. And now he gets set to face a rugged Milwaukee unit that defensively (105.5 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs) is a significantly better squad compared to the three teams the Suns knocked out in the West. The Bucks have rangy defenders—like All-Defensive First Teamer Jrue Holiday and even the aging PJ Tucker—they can throw at CP3, but their typical drop coverage in the pick-and-roll easily could allow Paul to thrive via his beloved mid-range jumpers if the Bucks don’t switch up their looks occassionally. Regardless, it won’t be easy for Paul. Not that the NBA’s most ruthless competitor would want it any other way.

We know who gets to play Batman on the Bucks and Suns. The Robin roles belong to Devin Booker and Khris Middleton. And the series easily could come down to whichever right-hand man balls out on the game’s biggest stage. Booker’s been a beast during Phoenix’s run to the Finals, dropping 40 two times and averaging 27.0 PPG to lead the Suns in scoring. His shooting percentages did fall off a little during the Clippers series, but we all know Booker will just about always find a way to put up numbers. He’s too good, too smooth, and too polished, even with a busted nose. Can the Bucks prevent him from going off? If they can’t, this series won’t last long.

Middleton easily could get the assignment of guarding Booker and while it’ll be imperative that Milwaukee keeps Book in check if it wants to have a serious shot at raising the Larry O’Brien Trophy, it’s way more important that Middleton continues his offensive surge in the Finals. The two-time All-Star is averaging 23.4 PPG during the postseason, second on the team behind Antetokounmpo, but Middletown stepped up big-time after the two-time MVP went down with his knee injury, dropping 26 in Game 5 and 32 in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. He had two quarters in the Atlanta series where he scored 20 or more points on the road. If the Greek Freak misses some early games, the offensive load will rest on Middleton’s shoulders. While he’s become a much more consistent shooter in the postseason, Milwaukee may have to ask the All-Star to morph into a superstar to buy Antetokounmpo more time. Not an easy one.

Are the Finals Deandre Ayton’s coming out party? If you’ve been watching the Suns’ run through the West then you know he’s been excellent and displaying some awesome offensive skills, including an impressive touch around the basket for someone his size. During the postseason his averages in PPG, DREB, and FG% have all notably risen from the regular season. Cameron Payne has also performed above his pay grade for the Suns, as evidenced by that 29-point performance in Game 2 against the Clippers. If you’re going to pick someone to make magic happen for Phoenix off the bench he’s clearly the choice. Also an excellent defender, Mikal Bridges was putting some very nice numbers until the Western Conference Finals. The Suns would like to get a little more out of him offensively since he averaged 13.5 PPG during the regular season.

As for the Bucks, their rotation runs a little thinner than the Suns’. Can Brook Lopez continue to put up bigger numbers in the absence of Antetokounmpo? Milwaukee will need 20-plus effective minutes off the bench from Pat Connaughton, and I’m not just talking about his offensive output. Bobby Portis probably remains in the starting lineup without Antetokounmpo, but he’s given Milwaukee some great minutes in his role as backup center. They’ll need a lot more of that. We all know PJ Tucker’s really here for defense, but it’d be nice if he started hitting more of his trademark corner threes. Tucker is shooting 29.4 percent from beyond the arc during this postseason run despite being a career 39.6 percent shooter from three in the playoffs.

Probably not. But then again…The Bucks coach was on the hot seat entering the playoffs and most likely needed some kind of deep run to keep his job after two straight postseason flameouts. We’ll assume he’s welcomed back to Milwaukee next season, but the stubborn Budenholzer, known for sticking to his guns no matter what’s unfolding in front of him, will be scrutinized like never before during these Finals. Should he fail to switch up the Bucks’ defensive strategies when things go sour, or allow his squad to shy away from distinct offensive advantages, Budenholzer’s going to get (rightfully) hammered for it. He deserves credit for changing the defensive gameplan in the Atlanta series when Milwaukee stopped dropping its bigs in pick-and-roll coverage and started switching on everything. That worked out well enough. People who know basketball way better than I do will often repeat how adjustments are the key to winning playoff games. That isn’t Budenholzer’s strength. Or even his M.O. It needs to become one quickly.

Kind of getting ahead of ourselves with this one, I know, but I ask the question because while it’s great that Phoenix has home-court advantage in the series, and they better capitalize on it while Antetokounmpo is out of the lineup, the Suns are doing just fine away from home. Phoenix is 5-2 on the road these playoffs after it owned the NBA’s best road record during the regular season (24-12). While they’re 6-2 at home during the playoffs, it’s worth pointing out how tough Phoenix has been away from the friendly confines of Phoenix Suns Arena just to emphasize how impressive the run to the Finals has been.

Conversely, Milwaukee is 7-1 at home during the playoffs. They’ve been lights out at Fiserv Forum, beating teams by an average margin of 15.7 points. Something has to give in Game 3 when the series switches to Milwaukee on Sunday. And even if the Suns somehow found themselves down 0-2, which seems highly doubtful, know that the series would be far from over.

Suns in six. They’re considered significant favorites by oddsmakers (-180) and are expected to take Game 1 (-6.5, O/U 219) . Antetokounmpo’s iffy status clearly clouds things and while a fully healthy Greek Freak might make us choose differently, it just kind of feels like all the pieces of the puzzle are coming together for CP3 and the Suns this season. Miss me with any asterisk talk—injuries and luck play a big role in every title run, Google it—Phoenix will be the surprise champion of the 2020-21 NBA season that was unlike any other. Booker is your MVP. If you’re a betting man, he’s +240 to earn the honors.