NFL Fantasy Football 2019: Biggest Sleepers & Busts

The top picks in your fantasy league are already penciled in. You know which names you’ll hear first when your draft commences: Saquon Barkley...Alvin Kamara...Christian McCaffrey. Sure, the experts on various sites may each rank the top guys a little differently, flip-flopping their order, but they always seem to agree on which players belong at the top. This ritual repeats itself each year: In August, the experts make their picks in harmony.

Yet at this time last year, no one had Patrick Mahomes near the top of their fantasy rankings. Mahomes, of course, went on to post one of the most impactful fantasy campaigns we’ve ever seen. Racking up more than 5,000 yards with 50 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions, the second-year Chiefs QB absolutely went off—much to the joy of his fantasy managers, many of whom were fortunate enough to snag him in the late rounds, after QBs like Alex Smith, Eli Manning, and Jimmy Garoppolo had been selected. (Apologies, Niners fans, for lumping Jimmy G. in with those other two.)

Look, few could have seen the Mahomes Madness coming. I certainly didn’t. But the lesson from this situation is clear: Fantasy success often boils down simply to foresight. It boils down to seeing what others can not, to identifying both the coming year’s breakout performers and which sure-fire, can’t-miss, league-wrecking studs will, in fact, turn into utter flops.

Picking a fantasy roster before you’ve even seen one regular-season snap is far from an exact science, but we’re here to help evaluate the evidence and remove some of the guesswork. Here are five sleepers and five busts whose performance will shape your fantasy league this season.

Hooper has been taking cues this offseason from Hall of Famer and Falcons great Tony Gonzalez, which should inspire confidence in Atlanta fans. This should, too: Hooper is only 24 years old. He still has room to grow!

Hooper has put up improved numbers in each of his three pro seasons, culminating in 71 catches a year ago. He even made the Pro Bowl. But he still only hauled in four touchdowns, which means his stock hasn't rocketed up like that of other tight ends such as Zach Ertz and Eric Ebron. Some lists even have Hooper outside of the top 10 tight ends.

That’s a mistake. With a reliable, still-in-his-prime quarterback in Matt Ryan and the reintroduction of Dirk Koetter who was also the Falcons' offensive coordinator from 2012-14 and led Ryan to some of his best years and two Pro Bowl appearances—Hooper will be one of the beneficiaries of a much-improved Atlanta offense. Expect to see a host of impactful fantasy performers from that unit.

Hooper’s TD total should catch up to his pass-catching productivity this season, making him a top TE in fantasy leagues.

Yes, we’re listing a Pittsburgh running back who’s not James Conner. If you were paying attention last season, though, Samuels’ inclusion won’t come as a surprise.

After the Steelers took the 6’, 223-pound back out of NC State in the fifth round of the 2018 draft, he showed himself to be a respectable runner. Just as valuable, however, is his catching prowess. In his first NFL start—while filling in for an injured Conner in Week 13—Samuels caught seven passes for 64 yards. The next week, he ran the ball 19 times and racked up 142 yards, the second-highest single-game rushing total by a Steelers rookie in team history.

He’s a versatile weapon, and though his role with Pittsburgh isn’t clearly defined right now, you can bank on him finding a way onto the field. Samuels will spell Conner regularly this season and will get third-down looks, and if Conner goes down, Samuels will instantly become a top RB option.

While Conner is going off the board in fantasy drafts very early, you can snag Samuels at a low price. The real payoff will come if he gets an opportunity to start.

Another backup running back? Yep. Technically, Jackson isn’t even the Chargers’ backup—he’s their third-stringer. But with Melvin Gordon’s situation in flux (Will he hold out for weeks or the full season or will he be traded?) Jackson is the de facto No. 2 in LA And all signs indicate that he’ll receive a regular workload next to Philip Rivers as the Chargers harbor Super Bowl aspirations.

Fellow Chargers back Austin Ekeler would be a good pick, too, but he has a bit more cachet and should occupy a slightly larger role in LA’s offense, so he’s going earlier in drafts. Jackson better fits the “sleeper” criteria.

Though Ekeler is the superior pass-catching target—he averaged 7.6 yards per target last season, making him one of the league's top receiving RBs and a true PPR dynamo—the Chargers are high on Jackson, too, and plan to rotate the backs. During his lone start last season—a showdown at Kansas City in Week 15, which the Chargers won 29-28, putting both teams at 11-3—Jackson rushed 16 times for 58 yards and a touchdown, and also caught three balls for 27 yards. His role dwindled in the final two weeks as Gordon returned, but Jackson showed flashes of RB1 potential while making a key contribution in one of the most important games of the regular season.

The Chargers really like both of their two backups, which is one reason they aren’t allowing Gordon to push them around in their contract stalemate. As a fantasy front-office exec, you should like those backs, too. Look for Jackson in the late rounds or on the waiver wire as a steal at RB.

Kirk was saddled with Josh Rosen as his QB1 last season and he only played in 12 games, so you have to take his numbers with a grain of salt. While languishing in that putrid offense, though, Kirk still managed to catch 43 balls for 590 yards and three touchdowns. Not bad!

The 22-year-old from Texas A&M—a second-round pick in 2018—was a top recruit out of high school (the No. 1 WR in his class, per some rankings) and gave Cards fans plenty of hope for his future as a rookie. An explosive athlete who ran a 4.45 40 at the combine, Kirk is a deep threat, as was evident when he sprinted away from the coverage for a 75-yard TD bomb from Rosen in Week 5. Kirk started seven games for the Cardinals and was becoming a reliable target before suffering a broken foot in Week 13.

This year, he’s paired with the offensive whiz Kliff Kingsbury and dual-threat rookie sensation Kyler Murray. The Cardinals may struggle out of the gates in the win-loss regard (playing in the NFC West won’t be easy), but excitement and explosiveness on offense seem inevitable.

It looks Arizona has (finally!) found an heir apparent to Larry Fitzgerald, and Kirk and Murray could form a dynamic QB-WR duo for years to come. Expect big things from Kirk this season—maybe even a Pro Bowl appearance. You heard it here first.

Jameis probably should not have been the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft. We’re guessing the Bucs now wish they had passed on the Florida State Heisman winner and instead taken a dynamic offensive weapon like Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, or Amari Cooper. Being selected No. 1 created high expectations for Winston, who has a career record of 21-33 as a starter.

But he's always put up decent numbers, and his completion percentage—a key metric of a QB’s development—has improved in each of his four pro campaigns. Now that he’s united with longtime supporter Bruce Arians—his new head coach—and that people are sleeping on Winston for maybe the first time in his football career, he’s hungry and poised for a breakout campaign. Though he’s been inconsistent as a pro, expect him to get a ton of opportunity to throw the ball in Arians’ pass-happy system. With weapons like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (who really came along late), and O.J. Howard (who’s also poised to emerge now that he’s healthy), Jameis could turn 2019-20 into a statement campaign.

Right now, most experts have Jameis slotted around the No. 10 spot among QBs. Don’t be surprised, though, if he puts up top-5 numbers, jockeying with big names like Rodgers and Wilson.

Please stop yelling at your computer. Yes, we gassed up Mahomes in the intro. Yes, his 2018-19 season was utterly unbelievable. And, yes, he probably should still be the No. 1 QB off the board.

Mahomes is on this list for a simple reason, though: He’s going to go too early in your draft. He will. It’s going to happen.

Don’t be that guy who reaches for a QB, even if that QB is Patrick Mahomes. Don’t pick the top signal-caller when there are so many strong QBs available, but only a handful of quality running backs. Mahomes’ stock is simply too high right now for him to be a good buy.

In all likelihood, Mahomes will have another strong season—maybe even racking up 40 touchdowns. This kid is insanely gifted, as you can tell by looking at the numbers and simply watching him play. Sure, he lost Kareem Hunt, and Tyreek Hill’s situation is uncertain, but the Texas Tech product looks like a lock to contend for MVPs for years to come. Who wouldn’t want him as their franchise QB?

Nonetheless, we’re talking fantasy here, and the odds of Mahomes replicating his performance this year are slim to none. His supporting cast is weaker and opponents have a year of film on him. He’d have to basically mirror his 2018-19 campaign to prove worthy of a first-round pick, and expecting that is unfair.

This is a tried-and-true strategy of fantasy champs: Be patient with your QB pick. You can still get a top-flight guy a few rounds later, but the quality skill-position guys will be gone. Resist the allure of Mahomes.

The guy in your league who scooped Lindsay off the waiver wire last year received a serious payout. The undrafted rookie from Colorado amassed 1,037 yards and nine rushing touchdowns, in addition to 35 catches for 241 yards and another TD. He was a Pro Bowler as the Broncos' featured back. How could you not love Lindsay’s rags-to-riches story?

But there are a number of factors working against Lindsay. For starters, he’s 25, and age is an important factor for running backs. For reference, Saquon Barkley is 22 and Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, and Nick Chubb are 23. Yes, Lindsay is only going into his second pro season, but don’t expect his numbers to improve. We may have already seen his best. He’s still playing with a subpar veteran QB (instead of Case Keenum this year, it’s Joe Flacco), and Denver’s backfield has gotten mighty crowded.

The Broncos have four viable options at running back with Lindsay, Royce Freeman, Devontae Booker, and the newly acquired Theo Riddick, who should get plenty of attention as a receiver. Lindsay still seems poised to be the main guy in that stable of backs, but it’s not a given—and either way, his opportunities to touch the ball will be limited by the Broncos’ depth. Lindsay will be a letdown this year; you'd be better served going for someone like Tevin Coleman, Kenyan Drake, or David Montgomery.

After a surprising 2018-19 campaign, the Colts are considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender this season. They have one of the league’s most revered signal-callers in the Andrew Luck—who still seems to be getting better—so there’s reason to buy into the hype.

Ebron finished sixth among tight ends in catches last season, but he cruised to No. 1 in touchdowns with 13. At 6’4” and 245 pounds, the former Tar Heel was Luck's favorite redzone target. Seemingly every time Indy marched inside the 20, Ebron hit pay dirt.

His numbers were undeniably impressive (and I was one of the fantasy-manager beneficiaries!), but last season will prove to be an anomaly. Here are his touchdown totals from the first four years of his career: one, five, one, and four. Yes, he was playing for the Lions (with Matt Stafford as his QB) back then, but expect a regression to the mean nonetheless.

The Colts have another strong TE weapon in Jack Doyle, whereas most of the other top tight ends (guys like Travis Kelce and George Kittle) won’t be competing for TE targets. Further, opponents will now key in on stopping Ebron in the red zone, creating opportunities for other Colts receivers. Other tight end options around the same range— like Evan Engram and O.J. Howard—are far more appealing.

Michel won a ring in his rookie season and was a contributor from Day 1 with the Patriots. He ran the ball 209 times as a focal point of New England's offense, amassing 931 yards on 4.5 yards per carry and reaching the end zone six times. He then posted the most rushing touchdowns in a single postseason by a rookie (six) in NFL history. Pretty impressive stuff from the first round pick (No. 31 overall).

But there are a few things to keep in mind before hopping on the Michel hype train. One is, like Lindsay, Michel (24) is an older running back. Another is that he’s had repeated knee issues; we’re not just saying this because they both went to Georgia, but this seems like it could snowball into a Todd Gurley-type issue.

Lastly, and most importantly, the Patriots are fully stocked at running back—even more so this year! They drafted Damien Harris out of Alabama in the third round, and they return James White and Rex Burkhead. Don’t expect any one guy out of that foursome to be a major fantasy contributor, just because—again, like the situation in Denver—the opportunities will be split. That’s the Patriot Way: we before me.

The Pats are Super Bowl favorites, and with good reason. Michel will play a key role in their title chase. But don’t reach for him if there are other good running backs who won’t be splitting carries and don’t have the same health concerns on the board. I feel very shaky about Michel this season.

Two Chiefs as busts?! I fully expect to hear from Kansas City fans (love you guys). But, KC fans, can we be honest with ourselves here: Is there any reason to believe in Sammy Watkins? Each year of his pro career has supposedly been set up to be his “breakout year” and he’s never followed through, never lived up to the outsized expectations.

The Bills traded two first-rounders for the right to take Watkins one pick before Khalil Mack and before fellow first-round receivers Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr. That decision looks...regrettable.

Watkins has only eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark once, and he's never had 10 touchdowns in a season. He had his best years early in his career with Buffalo, and it’s been downhill since; he hasn't eclipsed 40 catches since 2015.

Sure, the KC offense will put up numbers, but Mahomes will look to Kelce (and possibly Hill) first, then Damien Williams second. Promising second-round pick Mecole Hardman will be in the mix, too. And Watkins has been constantly plagued by foot and ankle injuries—he hasn't managed to play 16 games since 2014.

Don't expect Watkins to stay healthy and go off for big numbers this season. At 26 years old, it’d be a shock if he suddenly exploded for 100 catches and double-digit scores.

Want to win your league this season? Ignore the rankings listing him as a top 30 wide receiver.