We're amateurs here. Let's get that straight.
Professional gamblers do things way different than your recreational bettor. They're way more deliberately, spend way more time researching and crunching numbers, and, ideally, they're sporting a much more robust return on investment with three weeks left in the regular season than what the Complex Sports squad has given you so far.
But don't get it wrong. The fact that the resident gamblers here are hovering a few games above .500 is pretty damn respectable considering how hard it is to successfuly bet on the NFL. Because the books scrutinize the weekly lines in professional football like no other sport. And parity around the league often makes predicting winners an exercise in futility. But what we've been doing, we're proud to report, has been working.
Yours truly does things a little differently than Chopz. He prefers to gamble with his gut. He goes on feel. Doesn't do any research. And he's been heating up down the stretch.
Ya boy, on the other hand, likes to look at trends, takes into account some analytics, and tries to find an edge via historical research. But I'm not coming up with an alogorythm to bust the books or pointing back to a meticulously accounted power rankings to justify my picks like the professionals. I've got other things to do. And gambling isn't my day job. I'm happy I don't have that stress in my life.
I point out the dichotomies in strategies to say that when it comes to gambling on the NFL, whatever works for you—whether it be betting with your gut or digging into the numbers to find real value—roll with it and don't apologize if you're staying ahead of the roughly 52.4 percent break even point. Because it ain't easy and a lot of "experts" out there wish they had the ATS records we have right now.
Season records:
Cap: 22-19-1
Chopz: 22-18-2
Week 15
Cap
Texans (+3) at Titans
Road dogs continue to do well this season (75-50-5 against the spread) and here is the other trend that makes me love the Texans here: Houston is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss. We predicted that letdown for Houston last week. We're predicting a bounce back this week. Plus, this line opened at 1 and money came flooding in on the ultra hot Titans. They have to come down to earth at some point and I'll take the points in a massive game in the AFC South.
Packers (-4.5) vs. Bears
Opened at 7 and was quickly bet down. I understand grabbing a division rival getting a touchdown and PAT, but now that the line has lowered I'll take the better team at home knowing the Bears are just 5-13 ATS in this matchup over the past 18 meetings.
Dolphins (+3.5) at Giants
Doesn't matter who is under center for the Giants—Danny Dimes or the 93-year-old Eli Manning—they shouldn't be favored against anybody right now. They're a god damn disaster. Miami is 4-2 ATS on the road so I'll gladly take 3 and the hook.
Chopz
Broncos (+10) at Chiefs
The Broncos have been playing pretty great right now and with Patrick Mahomes banged up, this line seems way too big. Give me the Broncos.
Bears (+4.5) at Packers
Green Bay has been struggling on offense lately and the Bears have been rolling. In my mind, that means that you should take DA BEARS.
Rams vs. Cowboys (+1.5)
The Cowboys have been putrid lately and the Rams just beat Seattle but I like Dallas here. I'm not sure why, but yeah.
