Road. Dogs.
I repeat: Road. Dogs.
Week 11 of NFL gambling action featured plenty of stellar performances from squads playing in hostile territory as underdogs and they covered at a 66 percent clip. Impressive.
It's been a good year for backing road dogs since they're 87-65-5 ATS this season, hitting at a 57 percent clip. So, like we've said previously in this spot before, it would behoove you dig for dogs—especially on the road—and cash those tickets while the public blindly, and cowardly, continues to back heavy home favorites.
There are a bunch of enticing road dogs this week so eat up by taking points. I followed that strategy last week and it actually cost me since I happened to pick two of the four road dog that didn't cover (Texans and Bears). But I'm not detered. I'm jumping back on the horse. Give me nothing but road dogs this week.
Season records:
Cap: 17-15-1
Chopz: 15-16-2
Week 12
Cap
Seahawks (+1.5) at Eagles
Taking Seattle here with some trepidation for three reasons: 1. it's a west coast team on the east coast for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff; 2. this line opened at 3; 3. a whopping 83 percent of the best are on the Seahawks. Those are three legit reasons to steer away from the Seahawks here but...Seattle is coming off its bye, is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games, and clearly is the better team with an MVP candidate at quarterback.
Jaguars (+3) at Titans
All the against the spread trends favor the Titans in this one, but the reason I'm rolling with Jacksonville is—obvioulsy—I'm getting points on the road in a matchup that's legitimatley a toss-up. Plus, 70 percent of the bets have already come in on the Titans so I'll go the other way. I can't believe that many bettors believe in Tennessee.
Packers (+3) at 49ers
I'm kind of surprised this line continues to hover around 3 (it opened at 3.5) and hasn't been bet down further. But Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning record, 4-1 ATS in its last four road games, and San Francisco has barely played anybody this season. Kudos for taking advantage of an easy schedule so far, but the Niners are due to start losing. Well, technically it started what feels like a lifetime ago in the NFL against Seattle on Monday night in Week 10. The losing (at least ATS) continues against the Packers.
Chopz
Broncos (+4) at Bills
The Bills aren't as good as their record would suggest and the Broncos aren't as bad as theirs would, either. I actualy like the Broncos ML this Sunday, so why not sprinkle in a little bit of the +4.
Cowboys (+6.5) at Patriots
This should be a great game, but the line seems heavy. Yes, the Patriots are really good but the Cowboys have showed up this season. Let's get it.
Ravens (-3) at Rams
Yes, I'm taking all road teams this week. We're about to get it.
