Do yourself a favor and fade the public.
Seriously. If we learned anything from Week 4's action it's that you should absolutely, positively, 1,000,000 percent look to take the exact opposite of the most popular NFL bets each and every week.
The popular side of a bet is generally defined as a team garnering 60 percent or more of the wagers placed on it. Week 4 hammered home the point—that veteran gamblers already know—that you should avoid a heavy public favorite like the Plague. Last week, underdogs hit left and right as big favorites with huge public backing failed to cover over and over again (looking at you, Rams, Patriots, Cowboys, and Chiefs). All of those squads had at least 60 percent of the bets placed on them (if not way, way, way more than that) and, for the season, you should now that teams that are heavy public favorites are covering at an abysmal 36 percent clip. I repeat: FADE THE PUBLIC.
In a sport where parity is supposed to be the thing, Week 4 was a glorious reminder that when it comes to gambling on the NFL, taking points will forever be a sound investment strategy. That's what we did last week, taking five of six underdogs with our picks and it led to a scintillating 6-0 mark. Let's keep the money making momentum rolling in Week 5 by practicing what we preach.
Season records:
Cap: 7-4-1
Chopz: 7-5
Week 5
Cap
Giants +5.5 vs. Vikings
Minnesota's currently getting over 70 percent of the bets placed on them and I don't know why since they've looked so underwhelming. The Giants have been respectable with Daniel Jones under center and if you're going to give me 5.5 points with the home team that's feeling good about itself after two straight wins it seems like a no-brainer. Plus, the Vikings are just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
Broncos +6.5 at Chargers
Chargers don't have much a home field advantage playing in a soccer stadium that's always filled with the opposing team's fans and they're incredibly banged up. I know Denver just lost Bradley Chubb for the season, but it's a division game (meaning you should look to take points) and the Broncos continue to play close games. Also of note: the road team is 12-4-2- ATS in the last 18 meetings of this rivalry.
Colts +11 at Chiefs
Ton of points that I just can't pass up. Especially after this line opened at 8.5. Indy laid a dud last week against the Raiders, but maybe they were low-key looking ahead to the Sunday night matchup and just played down to the competition. The Colts are 8-1 ATS in their last nine against teams with a winning record and the Chiefs are getting a ton of public support heading into the weekend (over 70 percent right now) so you know our policy on that.
Chopz
Let me just start by saying we went 6-0 with five underdogs last week, so y'all should start paying attention. Ok, onto my picks.
Steelers +3 vs. Ravens
A home underdog against a Ravens defense that looks broken? Sign me up. I think everyone really overrated Baltimore after they beat two bad teams to start the season. The Steelers have enough talent that I think it's crazy to bet against them here.
Buccaneers +3.5 at Saints
The Bucs have been rolling lately and I think the Saints are due for some regression with Teddy B behind center. Winston and company will bring it home.
Browns +3.5 at 49ers
Folks, PUT THE RENT MONEY ON IT. I'm pretty shocked the 49ers are favored by this much. For one, the 49ers haven't played anyone this season, and for two, the Browns clearly have figured something out with their offense. I'm a homer, but you should really hammer this one.
