Predicting the Winner of Every First-Round Series of the NBA Playoffs

Kudos to Nate McMillan for keeping it real. And shame on the NBA for fining him because he did.

If you missed it, the Hawks interim coach earned the ire of the league this week, to the tune of a $25,000 hit to his wallet, when he suggested the NBA “wants and needs” the Knicks in the postseason and that “there’s going to be a lot of calls that probably won’t go our way” thanks, in large part, to the huge crowds expected at Madison Square Garden. He’s right, of course, because having one of the most glamorous franchises and its absurdly loyal fan base in the postseason for the first time in eight seasons will be nothing short of awesome and officials, studies have shown, are subject to the influence of the audience.

Knicks-Hawks, the 4-5 matchup in the Eastern Conference featuring Julius Randle vs. top 10 point guard Trae Young, is one of the most exciting series of the first-round of the NBA Playoffs as you’ll see outlined below. The postseason mercifully tips off Saturday after a tumultuous regular-season that saw COVID ruin everyone’s good time, too many injuries to too many of the league’s superstars, and more blowouts than we can reasonably count.

We’re beyond hyped for meaningful, extremely intense, and truly consequential basketball, and it starts with the Heat visiting the Bucks at 2 p.m. ET tomorrow and doesn’t end until July when the NBA crowns a new champion because—you heard it here first—the Lakers aren’t repeating. Here’s a run-through of all eight first-round playoff series to get you primed for the next two weeks with predictions on how long each one will last. 

Eastern Conference

Series odds: Bucks -300 | Heat +230

What you need to know: A rematch of last season’s second-round series that saw the Heat upset the top-seeded Bucks. But let’s not forget that was largely because Giannis Antetokounmpo’s ankle was messed up. Plus Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer stubbornly refused, yet again, to switch up his gameplan when things weren’t working. He vowed this year to make changes and if you’ve paid close attention to the Bucks then you know their defensive rotations looked much different during the regular-season as they experimented with tweaks in preparation for the playoffs. While Antetokounmpo will, of course, warrant most of the Heat’s defensive attention, for my money the Greek Freak’s supporting cast is better than last year’s, highlighted by the addition of Jrue Holiday, an obvious upgrade over Eric Bledsoe. Milwaukee will have the size advantage and is the superior offensive squad. 

As for the Heat, don’t tell them they can’t make another run to the NBA Finals. While many NBA fans consider Miami’s Eastern Conference championship last fall a fluke, the Heat deserve more credit than that, and let’s not forget they gave the Lakers a serious series despite barely having the services of Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic. This Heat team is pretty damn similar and fortuitously Jimmy Butler and company are significantly healthier heading into the postseason compared to the majority of Miami’s turbulent regular-season. Privately, they think they’re primed to pick up where they left off in the bubble, especially if they execute and catch a lucky break for two. We all know who has the edge in the coaching matchup since Erik Spoelstra is a master of game-planning and adjusting on the fly.     

Is this series a must-watch? Absolutely. Jimmy vs. Giannis will be excellent theater as this is easily the best first-round series in the Eastern Conference. Expect it to go the distance. While the Bucks weren’t as good defensively this year (12^th in adjusted defensive rating) as the previous two seasons (1^st in 2019-20, 2^nd in 2018-19), the defensive intensity on every possession—especially when the Heat try to form some kind of wall to prevent Antetokounmpo from scoring like it’s 2K—should be through the roof.

Prediction: Bucks in 7. If it’s Miami advancing, Milwaukee’s looking for a new coach this summer.

Series odds: Hawks -120 | Knicks +100

What you need to know: These two teams are evenly matched since they finished with the same record (41-31) while New York narrowly ended the regular-season ahead of Atlanta in net rating (2.41 compared to 2.38, good for 9^th and 10^th in the league, respectively). The Knicks are the superior defensive squad—they finished third in the NBA with an adjusted defensive rating of 109.01 while the Hawks finished with a 114.14 rating, good for 21^st. From a sheer firepower perspective, the Hawks clearly have the advantage with Trae Young and John Collins. But the Knicks and their mishmash of players surrounding All-NBA performer Julius Randle have completely bought into Tom Thibadeau’s style and mantra about playing hard and doing it with defense (New York finished first in a bunch of defensive categories, including 3-point field goal percentage defense). Randle raved to us earlier this year about how prepared Thibs is for every game. 

Yes, the Knicks won the season series 3-0 and absolutely torched the Hawks from deep in all three games, but putting a ton of stock into that would probably be foolish since the playoffs are nothing like the regular-season. And don’t forget the Hawks are a very different team than the one the Knicks faced in the first two matchups since Nate McMillan took over coaching duties March 1 and Bogdan Bogdanovic has been awesome the final two months of the season. As for the Knickerbockers, Derrick Rose has been a huge difference-maker off the bench since New York acquired him in February. He could easily win a game or two by himself down the stretch.

Is this series a must-watch? If you’ve missed the iconic organ and chants of “DEFENSE” from a Madison Square Garden playoff crowd, absolutely. MSG will welcome 15,000 fans at each home game in the first-round and the tortured Knicks faithful, that hasn’t seen the postseason since 2013, will be amped. As pointed out above, these two teams are evenly matched and both played well over the season’s final few months. Atlanta was 27-11 over its final 38 games and enters the playoffs winning seven of its last eight while New York only suffered four losses over its final 20 games.

Prediction: Knicks in 7.

Western Conference

Series odds: Nuggets -120 | Blazers +110

What you need to know: No Jamal Murray for the Nuggets, unfortunately, but with Nikola Jokic, your soon-to-be MVP, leading the way Denver is still the team to beat in this series, according to yours truly. Especially since Jokic will have help in Michael Porter Jr. who blossomed into a certified offensive stud this season after serving as an x-factor during Denver’s run to the Western Conference Finals last fall. But honestly, it’s all about the Joker. I’m not worried about how Denver’s going to defend the Blazers’ dynamic duo because they’re a problem for every team.

Portland’s path to the second-round is pretty obvious. It revolves around Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum putting up big, efficient numbers and hoping key contributions from their supporting cast, like Carmelo Anthony and trade deadline acquisition Norman Powell, serve as the appropriate complement. These are two of the top five most efficient offensive teams in the league (Portland finished 2^nd in adjusted offensive rating at 118.12, Denver finished 5^th at 118.02) so don’t expect this one to be decided by defense. Portland enters the postseason having won 10 of its final 12 games.

Is this series a must-watch? Debatable early on. But definitely worth getting wrapped up in the deeper this series goes for the dramatic shots Lillard will deliver during crunch time and to watch Jokic brilliantly orchestrate the offense and ideally carry a squad over the finish line for the first time in the playoffs.

Prediction: Nuggets in 7. I wouldn’t be surprised if Portland pulled this one out because Lillard and McCollum are on a different level than 95 percent of the backcourts in the league. However, I still think Denver has enough horses to advance. I know I’m not the only one that would’ve picked the Nuggets to win the Western Conference if they entered with a full deck. Now I think their ceiling is the second-round.