Predicting the Winner of Every First-Round Series of the NBA Playoffs

Kudos to Nate McMillan for keeping it real. And shame on the NBA for fining him because he did.

If you missed it, the Hawks interim coach earned the ire of the league this week, to the tune of a $25,000 hit to his wallet, when he suggested the NBA “wants and needs” the Knicks in the postseason and that “there’s going to be a lot of calls that probably won’t go our way” thanks, in large part, to the huge crowds expected at Madison Square Garden. He’s right, of course, because having one of the most glamorous franchises and its absurdly loyal fan base in the postseason for the first time in eight seasons will be nothing short of awesome and officials, studies have shown, are subject to the influence of the audience.

Knicks-Hawks, the 4-5 matchup in the Eastern Conference featuring Julius Randle vs. top 10 point guard Trae Young, is one of the most exciting series of the first-round of the NBA Playoffs as you’ll see outlined below. The postseason mercifully tips off Saturday after a tumultuous regular-season that saw COVID ruin everyone’s good time, too many injuries to too many of the league’s superstars, and more blowouts than we can reasonably count.

We’re beyond hyped for meaningful, extremely intense, and truly consequential basketball, and it starts with the Heat visiting the Bucks at 2 p.m. ET tomorrow and doesn’t end until July when the NBA crowns a new champion because—you heard it here first—the Lakers aren’t repeating. Here’s a run-through of all eight first-round playoff series to get you primed for the next two weeks with predictions on how long each one will last.

Series odds: TBD, but Philly will be hefty favorites.

What you need to know: I think we all know what the Sixers bring to the table, right? The roster is deep and Doc Rivers likely will have to pare down his rotation as the Sixers drive toward what many assume is an Eastern Conference showdown with the Nets. Because if the Sixers aren’t in the conference finals something has horribly gone wrong. Joel Embiid is healthy entering the postseason, Ben Simmons is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Rivers has an insane amount of playoff coaching experience, and the supporting cast is pretty damn good and, dare I say, underrated by some fans. They have shot takers and shot makers, plus excellent individual defenders.

Just to make it to the postseason is a massive accomplishment for the Wizards who were 17-32 in early April before going on a tear over the final 23 games of the season. Predicting a playoff berth for this team around the trade deadline would’ve sent you to the sanitarium. It’s the Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal show and if Washington’s two stars struggle (like they did against Boston earlier this week) then they’re going to get smoked. If they bring their A-game then Philly, even with its cadre of excellent individual perimeter defenders, will have its hands full. Remember, the Sixers are atrocious when it comes to transition defense.

Is this series a must-watch? No. Just keep checking your phone for score updates.

Prediction: Sixers in 5. Westbrook and Beal steal one game from Philly.

Series odds: Nets -1000 | Celtics +700

What you need to know: It’s nuts that Brooklyn’s Big 3 has only played eight(!?!?!) games together—no team in NBA history has ever won it all when their top three scorers have played so few games together—but nobody’s going to care about that now that it’s playoff time. When you have three studs that are geniuses at scoring zero excuses will be accepted for not quickly and efficiently putting to bed a Boston team that underachieved all season long, is missing the services of its second-best player (Jaylen Brown), and lost all three games of the season series despite the fact Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden never saw the court together in any of those matchups.

As we witnessed against the Wizards in the Play-In Tournament, Jayson Tatum has the ability to morph into a superhero. But that’s pretty much the only way the Celtics will even have a chance to steal a game or two from the Nets. Tatum received some necessary help from Kemba Walker Tuesday, but trusting anybody to perform up to expectations consistently has been a dicey proposition all season long for Boston. They just don’t have the horses to stick with Brooklyn.

Is this series a must-watch? No. If the Nets don’t dispatch the undermanned, out-classed, and consistently disappointing Celtics quickly it’ll mean one or two of their superstars suffered another injury. That being said, look out for Tatum going HAM one game and preventing a Nets sweep.

Prediction: Nets in 5. I’m accounting for one epic Tatum performance.

Series odds: Bucks -300 | Heat +230

What you need to know: A rematch of last season’s second-round series that saw the Heat upset the top-seeded Bucks. But let’s not forget that was largely because Giannis Antetokounmpo’s ankle was messed up. Plus Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer stubbornly refused, yet again, to switch up his gameplan when things weren’t working. He vowed this year to make changes and if you’ve paid close attention to the Bucks then you know their defensive rotations looked much different during the regular-season as they experimented with tweaks in preparation for the playoffs. While Antetokounmpo will, of course, warrant most of the Heat’s defensive attention, for my money the Greek Freak’s supporting cast is better than last year’s, highlighted by the addition of Jrue Holiday, an obvious upgrade over Eric Bledsoe. Milwaukee will have the size advantage and is the superior offensive squad.

As for the Heat, don’t tell them they can’t make another run to the NBA Finals. While many NBA fans consider Miami’s Eastern Conference championship last fall a fluke, the Heat deserve more credit than that, and let’s not forget they gave the Lakers a serious series despite barely having the services of Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic. This Heat team is pretty damn similar and fortuitously Jimmy Butler and company are significantly healthier heading into the postseason compared to the majority of Miami’s turbulent regular-season. Privately, they think they’re primed to pick up where they left off in the bubble, especially if they execute and catch a lucky break for two. We all know who has the edge in the coaching matchup since Erik Spoelstra is a master of game-planning and adjusting on the fly.

Is this series a must-watch? Absolutely. Jimmy vs. Giannis will be excellent theater as this is easily the best first-round series in the Eastern Conference. Expect it to go the distance. While the Bucks weren’t as good defensively this year (12th in adjusted defensive rating) as the previous two seasons (1st in 2019-20, 2nd in 2018-19), the defensive intensity on every possession—especially when the Heat try to form some kind of wall to prevent Antetokounmpo from scoring like it’s 2K—should be through the roof.

Prediction: Bucks in 7. If it’s Miami advancing, Milwaukee’s looking for a new coach this summer.

Series odds: Hawks -120 | Knicks +100

What you need to know: These two teams are evenly matched since they finished with the same record (41-31) while New York narrowly ended the regular-season ahead of Atlanta in net rating (2.41 compared to 2.38, good for 9th and 10th in the league, respectively). The Knicks are the superior defensive squad—they finished third in the NBA with an adjusted defensive rating of 109.01 while the Hawks finished with a 114.14 rating, good for 21st. From a sheer firepower perspective, the Hawks clearly have the advantage with Trae Young and John Collins. But the Knicks and their mishmash of players surrounding All-NBA performer Julius Randle have completely bought into Tom Thibadeau’s style and mantra about playing hard and doing it with defense (New York finished first in a bunch of defensive categories, including 3-point field goal percentage defense). Randle raved to us earlier this year about how prepared Thibs is for every game.

Yes, the Knicks won the season series 3-0 and absolutely torched the Hawks from deep in all three games, but putting a ton of stock into that would probably be foolish since the playoffs are nothing like the regular-season. And don’t forget the Hawks are a very different team than the one the Knicks faced in the first two matchups since Nate McMillan took over coaching duties March 1 and Bogdan Bogdanovic has been awesome the final two months of the season. As for the Knickerbockers, Derrick Rose has been a huge difference-maker off the bench since New York acquired him in February. He could easily win a game or two by himself down the stretch.

Is this series a must-watch? If you’ve missed the iconic organ and chants of “DEFENSE” from a Madison Square Garden playoff crowd, absolutely. MSG will welcome 15,000 fans at each home game in the first-round and the tortured Knicks faithful, that hasn’t seen the postseason since 2013, will be amped. As pointed out above, these two teams are evenly matched and both played well over the season’s final few months. Atlanta was 27-11 over its final 38 games and enters the playoffs winning seven of its last eight while New York only suffered four losses over its final 20 games.

Prediction: Knicks in 7.

Series odds: TBD, but you know who will be heavy favorites.

What you need to know: We’re obviously waiting on which team emerges from the final Play-In Tournament game Friday in San Francisco to determine who earns the right to be waxed by the NBA’s top regular-season squad. But whoever advances from the league’s silly experiment to add drama and intrigue to the end of the regular-season know that their chances of knocking off the No. 1 team via net rating and margin of victory are slim to none. One game scenarios are a different beast, but only a Silicon Valley sycophant or a Memphis bar-b-que bro 15 beers deep think their respective squads have a legit shot of upsetting Utah over a seven-game series. In all seriousness, the stability of Donovan Mitchell’s ankle from here on out will largely determine the Jazz’s success.

Is this series a must-watch? Nope, unless Twitter informs you Steph Curry is gunning for 40 before halftime—a very real possibility, of course.

Prediction: Jazz in 6 over the Warriors. Jazz in 5 over the Grizzlies.

Series odds: Lakers -220 | Suns +180

What you need to know: How sturdy is LeBron James’ ankle? And that’s it, that’s all, that’s all there is (shouts to Beastie Boys) to know about this series because if the James we saw in the first-half of the Lakers Play-In game with the Warriors Wednesday is the LeBron we end up seeing throughout this series then the Suns are advancing. If second-half LeBron shows up instead then it’s tough to imagine the Lakers losing to inexperienced and undersized Phoenix.

Yes, the Suns have the far superior backcourt featuring Devin Booker and Chris Paul. Even though CP3 and Jae Crowder are the only ones on the roster with legitimate playoff runs on their resume, the Suns absolutely have more than a puncher’s chance to knockout the defending champs. Frankly, the Lakers are very vulnerable right now for a bunch of reasons. But keep in mind that the Suns, who went 2-1 against the Lakers this season, never faced LA when Anthony Davis and LeBron were both available.

Is this series a must-watch? Are you on drugs? LeBron forever remains must-see TV and he’s never faced his BFF CP3 in the playoffs. The Suns were one of the feel-good stories of the regular-season, clearly overachieving and surprising everyone with the second-best record in the NBA. Now it’s time to see if they’re legit or postseason frauds. Interestingly, Caesars Sportsbook says this the first time in 30 years that a No. 7 seed is favored in a first-round series.

Prediction: LeBron says he’s good. But he always says that. Visual evidence would suggest otherwise. It ain’t easy, but the Lakers advance in 6.

Series odds: Nuggets -120 | Blazers +110

What you need to know: No Jamal Murray for the Nuggets, unfortunately, but with Nikola Jokic, your soon-to-be MVP, leading the way Denver is still the team to beat in this series, according to yours truly. Especially since Jokic will have help in Michael Porter Jr. who blossomed into a certified offensive stud this season after serving as an x-factor during Denver’s run to the Western Conference Finals last fall. But honestly, it’s all about the Joker. I’m not worried about how Denver’s going to defend the Blazers’ dynamic duo because they’re a problem for every team.

Portland’s path to the second-round is pretty obvious. It revolves around Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum putting up big, efficient numbers and hoping key contributions from their supporting cast, like Carmelo Anthony and trade deadline acquisition Norman Powell, serve as the appropriate complement. These are two of the top five most efficient offensive teams in the league (Portland finished 2nd in adjusted offensive rating at 118.12, Denver finished 5th at 118.02) so don’t expect this one to be decided by defense. Portland enters the postseason having won 10 of its final 12 games.

Is this series a must-watch? Debatable early on. But definitely worth getting wrapped up in the deeper this series goes for the dramatic shots Lillard will deliver during crunch time and to watch Jokic brilliantly orchestrate the offense and ideally carry a squad over the finish line for the first time in the playoffs.

Prediction: Nuggets in 7. I wouldn’t be surprised if Portland pulled this one out because Lillard and McCollum are on a different level than 95 percent of the backcourts in the league. However, I still think Denver has enough horses to advance. I know I’m not the only one that would’ve picked the Nuggets to win the Western Conference if they entered with a full deck. Now I think their ceiling is the second-round.

Series odds: Clippers -400 | Mavericks +300

What you need to know: When healthy and seemingly motivated, the Clippers are one of the best teams in the league and a serious title contender. Featuring two stars that are incredibly efficient offensively and can menace opponents defensively, this LA squad is constructed for a deeper playoff run than last year’s thanks to the additions of Rajon Rondo, Nicolas Batum, and Serge Ibaka. But it all comes down to Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. As they go so do the Clips. LA ended up being the league leaders from beyond the arc (41.1 percent) and the line (83.9 percent), plus top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency (112.22). They are better than the Mavericks and should be better than the No. 4 seed that they slid into thanks to two egregious losses (or tank jobs, depending on your perspective) against the Rockets and Thunder to close out the regular-season.

As for Dallas, Luka Doncic—undoubtedly one of the top point guards in the game—will bear the offensive load, but should have more help since Kristaps Porzingis, who missed three of the six games in last year’s playoff showdown, will (fingers crossed) be healthy for every game this time around. Meanwhile, Tim Hardaway Jr. remains a dangerous catch-fire 3-point shooter and Jalen Brunson has emerged as one of the best reserves in the game.

Is this series a must-watch? Meh. While I respect the argument that this is a compelling series, I ultimately disagree. We all remember the shot Doncic hit to win Game 4 of last year’s first-round series to tie things at two games apiece, but the Clippers clamped down over the next two to end things somewhat comfortably and convincingly. If LA is serious about making the Western Conference Finals and clearly values giving Kawhi as much rest as possible, don’t dick around let the Mavericks make it a series. But I’ll guess we’ll find out if they really learned their lesson from last year’s second-round debacle.

Prediction: Clippers in 5.