Every NFL Team's Worst First-Round Draft Pick Since 2011

The 2021 NFL Draft is quickly approaching and the excitement is building for the three-day event. Fans and pundits will be in bliss as this year’s rookie class finds out where they’ll begin their careers. But every team has a slew of bad picks they’d love to have back. It’s not a knock on anyone. Drafting is hard and not every first-round pick is going to work out. It’s math.

Sometimes a pick doesn’t work out due to poor scheme or culture fit and a player does well elsewhere. Other times it’s about reaching for an individual over another, and seeing the other player blossom while their own pick flounders. Rarely are any two situations the exact same and it’s easy to second-guess with hindsight.

We’ve found the worst first-round draft pick for every team along with the runner-up since the 2011 draft class. Even the best franchises miss because the draft is a gamble and football isn’t easy to project.

The Cardinals have struggled drafting in the last decade so it was difficult to choose who their worst pick was. Josh Rosen was traded just one-year into his career, but at least the Cardinals were able to get a second-round pick back. Both Jonathan Cooper (2013) and Nkemdiche were moved after their third season.

Cooper was regarded as a great prospect, but wasn’t as tenacious as he needed to be. At least he’s still in the league as a depth piece. Nkemdiche had injury and character concerns, falling to the end of the first-round. He produced just 4.5 sacks for Arizona, and was drafted before Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones and Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard.

Atlanta’s track record of early-round picks is impressively strong. They haven’t completely whiffed on a first-round pick to the point where the player was worthless and out of the league before the end of their first contract. They’re one of very few teams capable of claiming that.

Their search for a primary pass-rusher has been rough, though. Both Takkarist McKinley and Vic Beasley failed to be the stars they’d hoped for despite quality collegiate resumes. Both players are fighting for their careers currently.

Even as one of the most successful franchises over the last decade, the Ravens had several big whiffs. First-round pick Matt Elam from 2013 was out of the league after three years and a strong contender for this nomination. But it was wide receiver Breshad Perriman who set the franchise back more than any other first-round miss.

The Ravens, to this day, still lack a true superstar receiving threat. Tyler Lockett and Stefon Diggs were drafted far after Perriman and have been much better playmakers. Imagine Lamar Jackson with one of those big-play receivers.

One of the more shocking moments of the NFL Draft over the last decade was hearing Manuel’s name called in the first-round. Scouts and media members alike were far from impressed with Manuel’s lack of arm talent and polish while at the 2013 Senior Bowl, let alone middling film work. The Bills quickly found out what others had known about his talent level.

Manuel started 10 games as a rookie and just eight more over the course of four seasons. They had seen enough to essentially give up on him after his first 10 games, where he completed 58 percent of his passes for a measly 1,972 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He’s one of the biggest whiffs of the decade.

Carolina benefitted from having the same regime in place for much of the last decade, and they did relatively well with their early picks. Many produced at least one quality season even if guys like Devin Funchess and Kelvin Benjamin failed to be stars. The closest thing to a big miss on their resume was Butler.

Despite having quality defensive tackle depth and the overall value of the position being low, the Panthers spent a first-rounder on Vernon Butler. His tape was never too impressive but his combine numbers tricked teams into thinking he could be more than a gap-eater. He simply isn’t someone who moves the needle.

Few teams have a worse resume of drafting over the last 10 years than the Bears. It’s possible they’ve missed on six of the last 10 players they’ve selected first in each draft. The fact they’ve been somewhat competent despite these misses is shocking.

The easy choice here is Trubisky. Already relegated to a backup elsewhere, Trubisky was clearly behind Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes on film. The cherry on top was the Bears trading up to select the one-year wonder who struggled under pressure instead of Watson.

One of the most loaded classes in recent years was the 2017 group. The Bengals were justified in believing they needed a big-time speed option, but Ross was a massive disappointment almost immediately. The blend of not fitting in with two coaching staffs and lack of on-field consistency cost him an extended tenure and real impact in Cincinnati.

Ross was also drafted before Mahomes, Watson, Marshon Lattimore, Marlon Humphrey, and TJ Watt, among many others. The Bengals are trending up now, but would be much further ahead if they had an established superstar at quarterback or lockdown cornerback. The wide out is now fighting for his career with the Giants.

Trying to pick these two selections for the Browns was almost impossible. Phill Taylor (2011) Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden (2012), Barkevious Mingo (2013), Danny Shelton and Cameron Erving (2015) and Corey Coleman (2016) would almost be easy choices for half the league, but are merely write-in candidates for the Browns. Thankfully the franchise has moved past these blunders.

Manziel was a known problem child by NFL executives and was a massive headache to deal with. Outside of a brief exciting moment, Manziel was a sideshow for the Browns for just two seasons before being released and exiled from the league. He was drafted before DeMarcus Lawrence, Derek Carr, and Tuitt, among many others.

There’s plenty of picks the Cowboys have mishandled over the years, but this franchise has made their money in the early rounds of the draft. Their first-round picks are rarely disappointments, and they’ve built solid depth on Day 2. The eyesore pick on their resume goes all the way back to 2011.

Carter had a lot of hype going up to the draft as the next-big pass-rusher. His speed was impressive but he lacked the strength and physicality to win off the edge consistently. He had just five sacks in eight years with four teams as a linebacker.

Mis-evaluating a quarterback is especially costly in the NFL due to guaranteed rookie deals and the time it takes to develop the position. The Broncos didn’t need much time to figure out Lynch didn’t have the mental make-up to be a star though, with the former Memphis gunslinger being done after only 128 passes in two seasons.

No one else even rolled the dice on the athletic passer after his short stint, which is a horrible indictment of Denver. The Broncos are still searching for a quarterback five years later. They could’ve had Dak Prescott in the fourth-round of the 2016 class, let alone a slew of stars at other positions.

Somehow the Lions were able to go 10 years with a shocking lack of impact players drafted early. The vast majority of their picks fell in the average-to-disappointing but functional range, making their true blunders standout. This franchise has managed to simply not take the best player possible since Ndamukong Suh in 2010.

Taking a linebacker in the first-round is a huge gamble for a position that’s not overly valuable. Davis was billed as an athletic, new-age player, but his film and testing never confirmed that. He was taken above T.J. Watt and Tre White, perennial Pro Bowlers.

Guard Laken Tomlinson was selected before a slew of hits in the second-round of the 2015 class.

Green Bay has been one of the model franchises when it comes to accumulating depth and quality alike through the draft. They don’t spend often in free agency and it’s an issue potentially holding them back, but they can’t be knocked often for draft misses. Most of their misses are easily explainable.

The selection of Love isn’t, though. Aaron Rodgers was still very good in 2019, and the quickest Love could earn the job is after 2021 had Rodgers started to decline. Instead of taking a playmaker like Tee Higgins, the Packers selected a player unlikely to get on the field for the duration of his guaranteed four-year contract.

The current iteration of the Texans haven’t had a ton of early draft picks due to trades, but the previous regime under GM Rick Smith consistently drafted well-enough. Guys like Jadeveon Clowney, Kevin Johnson, and Will Fuller didn’t fulfill their potential, but were productive and solid when on the field. Injuries robbed each of them of impact and Houston couldn’t have accounted for that with each.

However, these picks changed the course of the franchise because they weren’t true hits. It’s impressive the Texans have avoided flat-out bad players with early selections but they’re also missing on game-breakers. Neither Johnson nor Clowney have found huge success elsewhere.

There have been two clear eras for the Colts over the last decade: the Andrew Luck-era, and the Chris Ballard-era. The Luck-era brought numerous mishandled selections in early rounds, leading to his premature retirement and lack of playoff wins. Then the Ballard-era, which has a much more reasonable hit-rate thus far.

The glaring missed pick from the first-part of the 10-year window was former Florida State edge-rusher. Stiff and relatively unathletic, Werner relied on pure strength to win against smaller blockers in college. That strategy utterly failed in the NFL and he was gone just three years later. Xavier Rhodes, DeAndre Hopkins, and Darius Slay highlighted some of the following selections.

The only team with two quarterbacks on-top of their worst picks is the Jaguars. While they were justified in addressing the position, they passed on multiple Hall of Fame-level contributors to reach for two well-below average quarterbacks. Neither had especially good physical traits or accuracy.

JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, and Andy Dalton went shortly after Gabbert. Khalil Mack, Mike Evans, Aaron Donald, and Odell Beckham heard their names called after Bortles. Imagine what the Jags could’ve been with one of these stars instead of taking a terrible quarterback.

Winning a Super Bowl and competing year-in, year-out requires strong drafting over an extended period of time. The Chiefs have consistently found quality players despite missing the occasional first-round pick. Their biggest misses were far and away the lone early picks who didn’t offer any impact at all in their time with the franchise.

The 2011 first-rounder caught only 41 passes for 579 yards and 2 scores before being dealt to San Francisco. He was lumbering and slow, unable to create any separation. It’s amazing they were able to get anything for him in a trade.

Las Vegas has been a disaster under Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden. Their recent picks show a complete misunderstanding of value relative to the rest of the league. They value old-school players with premium picks instead of high-impact talent.

I’m as surprised as anyone to say Gareon Conley in 2017 was a bust. The former Buckeye was a strong prospect due to his ability in man coverage and overall feel for the game. But the Raiders asked him to play more zone without quality veterans around him, and he fell flat before showing some promise in Houston in 2019.

Injuries aside, the Chargers are arguably one of the strongest first-round drafting teams of the last decade. The franchise has been snake bitten by the injury bug, though, costing wins and careers along the way. We had to dig deep to find the worst two first-round picks since 2011.

Former Alabama lineman D.J. Fluker was supposed to be a blindside star for the Chargers but ended up being a guard who couldn’t be more than a stopgap. He was too top-heavy and slow-footed as the league evolved. Though not a true bust, he stands out as a misevaluated talent who was simply overdrafted.

The 2014 class was a legendary group of stars, but the top of class was hilariously mishandled in retrospect. The Rams landed the best player in Aaron Donald, but with their earlier first-round pick was one of the biggest busts.

Robinson was a dominant run blocker at Auburn with great athleticism for his size. But his lack of technique in pass protection doomed him as the league transitioned to a pass-happy attack. Robinson is still around as a depth piece, but the Rams would’ve rather had one of the numerous All-Pros taken after him.

The 2013 class was bad for half the league, but Miami’s trade up for Jordan was one of the more egregious misses. Jordan flamed out of Miami after two lackluster seasons, a season-long suspension, and a knee injury. It also hurts he was picked right before Lane Johnson and Ezekial Ansah.

Miami has a few other candidates for second-place, but 2020 first-rounder Noah Igbinoghene is already looking like a bust as well. Miami signed Justin Coleman to play in the slot over him this offseason, and the diminutive Auburn corner failed to show much in limited time last year. Miami could’ve had Higgins, Antoine Winfield Jr., or Jonathan Taylor instead and benefitted much more.

Another team who thrived off their Day 2 picks but had mediocre first-round results is the Vikings. The early half of their 2011-2020 draft results lacked starpower early, but incredible value finds as the picks proceeded to be called. That’s changed a bit in the last two years as Justin Jefferson and Garrett Bradbury have starred.

Easily their two worst picks were Ponder and Laquon Treadwell. Neither lasted long as starters despite their billing and resumes. Ponder had a noodle arm and barely had more touchdowns (38) than interceptions (36) over his four-year career. Like Manuel, it was stunning to hear his name being called so early after seeing his physical limitations in college.

Even the best coach of all time has a plethora of questionable picks to choose from for this exercise. New England’s dominance was largely due to Tom Brady’s ability to lift playmakers around him, and Belichick’s elite defensive mind. I’d argue their last five first-round picks have thus far been busts, with Isaiah Wynn being the closest to a hit.

Harry has been the worst, though, because of who was taken after him. Brady might still be a Patriot if DK Metcalf was the selection. Harry’s been dangled in trades already, but few teams have been willing to give up more than a late-round selection. He struggles to get any separation and show the athleticism needed to succeed in the NFL.

More recently known for their current cap situation and strange infatuation with Taysom Hill, the Saints built their foundation in the draft over the last decade. This roster has continued to be filled with quality on both sides of the ball because they generally hit on a few picks each year. But the mid-2010s had a rough stretch.

It’s tough to name a runner-up for a first-round pick. Marcus Davenport was the closest thing to a miss because the Saints traded up with two first-round picks and a mid-rounder for him. Davenport has been solid but unspectacular thus far.

One of the worst-drafting teams of the last decade is the New York Giants. It’s hard to argue they’ve had more than two hits in each draft class from 2011 until 2018. Even in the 2018 class that yielded Saquon Barkley, Will Hernandez, Lorenzo Carter, and BJ Hill, that’s not exactly a loaded list of franchise-building pieces.

The worst two picks by the franchise were significant misses even considering their track record. Baker played poorly as a rookie due to limited athleticism, had off-field issues, and then had a gruesome non-contact knee injury. He was the first player drafted in the top-64 released from his class.

The Giants’ 2012 first-rounder David Wilson ran for only 504 yards in two years with the team before injuries sunk his career. He was taken before Mitchell Schwartz, Janoris Jenkins, and Jeffrey.

Looking through the Jets’ drafts from the early-to-mid 2010’s is brutal. The 2012 class was headlined by Quinton Coples and Stephen Hill. 2013 had Dee Milliner, who played just eight games after a solid rookie season. 2014 through 2016 featured Calvin Pryor, Jace Amaro, Devin Smith, Lorenzo Mauldin, Darron Lee, and Christian Hackenberg.

Milliner enjoyed one quality season before injuries took away the explosiveness needed to be effective. It was a tough blow to Rex Ryan’s defense, who badly needed a shutdown corner. He played just 21 games over three years.

One reason scouts look for players who love the game of football with vigor is the story of Watkins. The 27-year-old rookie had phenomenal film in college and should’ve dominated with his fantastic athleticism. But the talented athlete knew he was meant to be a firefighter and his lack of desire to be an NFL star led to a short-lived NFL stint.

Marcus Smith is the other eye-poppingly poor pick over the last decade for the Eagles. Smith was a speed rusher who didn’t have another move in his arsenal. He produced just 6.5 sacks over five years with three teams.

The 2013 class was one of the worst in recent memory and the Steelers were another team to fall victim to overdrafting a bad player. Jones was a stiff, linear edge-rusher who never had a chance at being more than a rotational piece in the NFL. His production at Georgia clearly came from physicality and scheme, yet the Steelers still selected him 17th overall over Kyle Long, Desmond Trufant, and Xavier Rhodes.

The Steelers switched their strategy to get more athletic players shortly after the Jones debacle, but their 2016 pick of Artie Burns was misguided. Burns wasn’t twitched-up enough in short-area, and was burned as a limited cornerback who could only run downhill fast. He quickly washed out as a depth piece.

Like the Bears, the 49ers will forever regret passing on Mahomes in the 2017 class. At least the Bears identified the correct position to address, but the 49ers rolled the dice on raw pass-rusher. Thomas has been a massive disappointment as the former third overall pick, totaling just 95 tackles and six sacks in four years.

We have to go back to 2012 to find the next huge miss with AJ Jenkins. The former Illinois receiver lasted only one-year after being targeted just once with the franchise before being dealt to Kansas City. He’s the second-least productive first-round pick of the entire decade, making him an easy choice for one of the worst picks since 2011.

Seeing a high-achieving team draft poorly is rare, but the Seahawks have accomplished this feat. At least five of their eight most recent first selections have busted thus far in their careers. Yet the Seahawks are a legitimate Super Bowl hopeful every year with Russell Wilson at the helm of the offense.

The biggest gaffe was Rashaad Penny. Penny was immediately questioned, and has since never earned the trust of the coaching staff. He’s been a plodding presence who can’t stay healthy. 2021 is a make-or-break year for his career despite being only 25 years old.

The 2016 draft was one of the worst hauls possible for the Buccaneers’ franchise. Every selection was a miss despite the impressive collegiate resumes of their first three picks. Many lauded the picks of both Vernon Hargreaves and Noah Spence but they flamed out quickly.

The Bucs lack a true bust throughout the decade but Mark Barron is the easily questioned one with hindsight. Drafted seventh overall, Barron never found a forever role as the league moved him from safety to linebacker. He’s still around though, which is a good sign of how the Bucs draft.

The last decade has brought some success for the Titans, but their early-round picks have largely been bad decisions. The franchise should stay away from players with character concerns considering their track record. No player embodied that more than Wilson.

He’s already out of the league after playing in victory formation in one-game last year. Miami traded a seventh-round pick for him, but subsequently released him. He needs help to get his life back together. Nonetheless, he’s the worst first-round pick of the decade.

The other clear pick is Jake Locker. An athletic passer who couldn’t hit open targets with accuracy, Locker never saw the improvement needed to become more than a journeyman. He retired young, and left many wondering if there was still an upside he never reached.

Missing on a quarterback always stands out above everything else. Haskins was a good collegiate quarterback at Ohio State, but word quickly spread as he landed in Washington they wanted to see more of a work ethic from him. His lack of mental development on the field showed as he struggled to adjust to NFL defenses. Washington gave up on him quickly because of this and now Haskins is in Pittsburgh as a backup.

Washington’s done well with early picks but their runner-up has to be 2016 first-rounder Josh Doctson. Doctson was a freakish vertical athlete who never developed beyond being a jump-ball threat. His limited route tree and inconsistent performances left a sour taste for anyone excited by his thrilling highlight reel at TCU.