The Complex 2012 NBA Playoff First-Round Preview

If you’re hip to pompous marketing campaigns, then you know that the NBA Playoffs is “where amazing happens.” In reality, it’s where celebratory Tarzan calls and griping over whistles are made slightly less insufferable by team defense and hard fouls. And since we've reached the end of the season-that-almost-wasn’t we should show some respect for the playoffs that almost never happened.

During the ’98-‘99 strike-shortened NBA season, the No. 8 seed New York Knicks made it all the way to the Finals. Does that mean this years' Knicks will be reppin’ the East!? FOH. It means that in a compressed season the sample size is smaller, the players are drained, and we don’t know as much about these teams as we usually do. But that’s not going to stop us from forecasting the entire first round with impunity.

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Regular Season Series: Bulls won 2-1
What To Watch For: Derrick Rose has traded in his jersey for a hospital gown and will likely play this whole series wearing a neck brace and leg cast. But even if Rose runs point with Brian Scalabrine pushing him around in a wheel chair, he'll still stagger his way to 20 points, eight assists, and if they need him to, he'll close out games at the free throw line.

Thinking he was still at Ohio State and, you know, relevant, Sixers guard Evan Turner fired the first obligatory, unprovoked shot of the first round, saying of Philly's No. 8 seed and missed date with the Miami Heat, "It means we're dodging the tougher team." Nothing like some chest beating from a role-playing bust to remind you it's playoff time.

Our Prediction: Bulls in 5. Philly struggles to create offense, their leading scorer is a backup point guard who averages less than 15 points per game. That's a tough matchup (we don't care what Evan Turner says) because Chicago might play the league's best team defense. Doug Collins was everyone's preemptive pick for Coach of the Year when the Sixers came out the gate 20-9, but they've since come back down to Earth and crash-landed into the Playoffs as the East's No. 8 seed. This should be a quick series.

Regular Season Series: Heat won 3-1
What To Watch For: The Knicks have tremendous depth, and when JR Smith is feeling it, and Steve Novak's raining, their bench can stack points in a hurry. They've closed out the season on fire and are playing their best basketball right now.

Forget the fabricated stories about their shortcomings and tireless appearances on SportsCenter's “Panic Meter,” the regular season never mattered to the Heat, it's always been about the Playoffs. In last season's Eastern Conference Finals, LeBron blanketed Derrick Rose in the fourth quarter and Mr. MVP never so much as caught a glimpse at the backboard—expect that kind of intensity out of Miami.

Our Prediction: Heat in 6. The only storylines more played than Jeremy Lin feel-goods have been the Knicks-are-for-real ones. Sure, New York has closed out the season hot but they're always on the verge, never proven, and until they turn the corner, they're still the fucking Knicks. Don't get it twisted.

Regular Season Series: Magic won 3-1
What To Watch For: The casual fan can't name three players on the Pacers, but they're pretty damn good. The unexpected retirement of Jeff Foster means that this series won't have the hard fouls and trite staredowns the NBA Playoffs are famous for, but Indiana plays hard. Expect some blood-stained jerseys in this one.

The Magic are cratering just in time for the Playoffs. They've closed out the season on a pathetic slide and lost Dwight Howard to a back injury. This series will undoubtedly feature basketball at its lowest quality, but like a beautiful struggle, it'll be fun to watch.

Our Prediction: Pacers in 4. Dwight Howard's shattered the Magic franchise like a tempered glass backboard and won't be able to sweep up the pieces while he's in surgery. Stan Van Gundy's been reduced to a sweaty, pathetic placeholder whose team plays about as hard as Barry Manilow on morphine. Orlando's staggered through the home stretch of this season like a deer that's been hit by a Ford F150 and Indiana will play the role of the Sheriff's deputy with a cocked and loaded 12-gauge. Ready… Aim… Sweep.

Regular Season Series: Celtics won 2-1
What To Watch For: We don't know if they're peaking on Red Bull and about to crash, or if Ray, Paul, and Kevin successfully completed a stem-cell replacement surgery in Mexico City; either way, the Celtics have their legs back. This is going to be their last run as a unit which means a lot of no-look passes and shot fakes, and Kevin Garnett's going to double down on his jaw-protruding mean mugs. It'll be awesome.

Joe Johnson and Josh Smith create some serious matchup problems in favor of Atlanta and Jeff Teague's been pragmatic running point. Atlanta may not be the smartest team but they're athletic as hell, and they're very hard to beat when they hit from outside.

Our Prediction: Celtics in 7. The Celtics don't have a ton of depth but unless we're caught in a time wrinkle and it's actually 2003, the Hawks' bench of Kirk Hinrich, Jerry Stackhouse, and Tracy McGrady is about as weak as it gets.

Regular Season Series: Spurs won 3-1
What To Watch For: The Spurs may be in the best position of all the title hopefuls because they have all the cache of an NBA elite without any of the crippling expectations. If it's possible to quietly snag a No. 1 seed, the Spurs have done it, going 21-3 to close out the season without getting slobbed by ESPN's afternoon lineup of talking heads.

Our Prediction: Spurs in 5. When over half the league's teams make the playoffs, by definition, some of them will be average. Utah is one of those mediocre squads. The Spurs lost as the No. 1 seed last year, but it's not happening again.

Regular Season Series: Thunder won 3-1
What To Watch For: If you're judging based on the regular season, the Mavs don't pass the eye test. They play soft, they're old, and worst of all, they all seem to despise one another. It only took a season for the lovable Mavs to become "The U in the 80s," only more arrogant and with fewer wins.

By contrast, the Thunder have been one of the league's most confident and consistent teams, and the in-fighting between Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook has becoming an almost charming byproduct of their chemistry.

Our Prediction: Thunder in 5. Dallas has seemed content with their championship last year and have completely lost the grit that made them so dangerous a season ago. The Mavs seem pretty determined to end their season before Memorial Day, and OKC will be more than willing to oblige.

Regular Season Series: Lakers won 3-1
What To Watch For: Metta World Peace is out, but Andrew Bynum is capable of coming equally unhinged. So, if you only watch basketball to see a violent assault on the court, then this is your first round matchup. As easy as it may be to put this series on Bynum or Bryant, the pivot point (pardon the pun) will be L.A.'s newly appointed point guard Ramon Sessions. If he plays well, the Lakers will skate through this series.

The Nuggets are playing their best basketball of the season right now, closing out 8-2. Ty Lawson is balling like an absolute beast, which bodes well for Denver. The Lakers have had problems with good point guards all season. It'll be a matchup of talented (but mostly nameless) Nuggets against a primed (but slightly disjointed) Laker team with one last run in them. Let the fun begin.

Our Prediction: Lakers in 7. A lot of people have the Lake Show losing this series, but we're basing our pick on precedent, and in 14 trips to the playoffs Kobe has only made a first-round exit twice. He might be unable to will his team someday soon, but not this year and definitely not to the fabled Nuggets. If Kobe has to (or if he doesn't) he'll chuck it up 40 times a game and, shooting percentage be damned, he'll hit enough to get the Lakers to the semis.

Regular Season Series: Clippers won 2-1
What To Watch For: This will be the best series in the opening round. There are going to be insane dunks, hard fouls, and when it's all said and done, the advancing team will be battle tested. Memphis is finally at full strength and with Zach Randolph in the lineup they have basically the same squad that took the Thunder to seven games in the 2011 Western Conference Semis. The Clippers are a team on the come-up that has lived up to lofty expectations but is pretty average on the road. L.A. will need to put the Staples Center on lock to make this a series.

Our Prediction: Grizzlies in 7. If there's any sort of discrepancy between these two teams, it's that the Clippers have a deer-in-headlights, woeful coach. Lob City will lose at least one game this series on account of Vinny Del Negro awkwardly diagramming inbounds plays with Sour Patch Kids after misplacing his dry erase board. Chris Paul will mistakenly pass to watermelon when the play was set for blue raspberry and DeAndre Jordan will end up throwing a three-pointer in to the seats at the buzzer. Grizzlies advance.