10 NBA Title Contenders and Pretenders

Oct 22, 2019; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) is defended by LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) in the second half at Staples Center. The Clippers defeated the Lakers 112-102. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The deepest team in the NBA, with the most dynamic bench, is going to be a beast to beat when their stars are healthy. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard have now been playing together for precisely a week and will only get better as they familiarize themselves with the other's tendencies. The Clippers might not finish with the best record in the NBA, or the Western Conference, because we all know Leonard and George will miss games due to load management. But when LA is featuring its full roster they simply can do things that other teams can’t—defend like crazy. They’re currently 5th in net rating, tops in offensive rebound percentage, 2nd in adjusted margin of victory (7.85), and the offensive numbers figure to only improve since George has only played six games. While you can’t measure it, the Clippers' defensive intensity is through the roof when Leonard and George are on the court. Calling their bench deep doesn’t do it justice when it has Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrel, Moe Harkless, and JaMychal Green. The Clippers are the team to beat.    

The Lakers own the NBA’s best record and that’s largely because their schedule to open the season has been softer than a brand new hoodie. Through 17 games, LA has only had five (!!!) games against teams currently above .500. Los Angeles ain’t going to win 74 games, but give the Lakers credit for taking advantage of it and playing much better defense than many expected we’d see from this squad. I personally thought the Lakers D would be a work-in-progress, but it’s looked damn good with the addition of Dwight Howard (seriously). And if LeBron, playing like an MVP, puts forth this kind of defensive effort all season long then the Lakers truly will be a nightmare. We saw how their length gave the Clippers problems in the opener and we’ll soon start to see it tested against the likes of the Mavs, Nuggets, Jazz, Heat, Bucks, and Pacers in December with a showdown No. 2 against the Clippers set for Christmas. Chances are this team adds another veteran role player around the deadline or when guys are eligible for buyouts, but we all know the key to the Lakers success: a healthy LeBron and Anthony Davis and continued stifling defense. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing like an MVP again while the Bucks lead the league in net rating (8.7), pace (106.87),  adjusted margin of victory (9.91), and sit at second in fast break points (18.8). Long story short: the Bucks are doing just fine through their first 17 games of the season. I do think Milwaukee will miss Malcolm Brogdan when it comes time for the postseason and we can rightfully question whether Eric Bledsoe is the right man at the point when it really matters. But for now, the Bucks remain one of the elite teams thanks to the NBA's second best defensive rating as they allow the fewest points in the paint. The Bucks continue to be one of the most voluminous 3-point shooting teams in the league yet possess the NBA’s second highest effective field goal percentage. Clearly Milwaukee has more than enough shooters. Clearly they can defend. Clearly they have a top 2 or 3 player in the game. Clearly they’re stacked for another deep run as long as Giannis remains healthy.

With their assembled talent and the potential to be a great defensive team, there's no reason why the Sixers shouldn't be serious title contenders even if it feels like this team is still a ways away from its ceiling. Yeah, we want Ben Simmons to take more jumpers (and threes, please). Yeah, Joel Embiid can’t go scoreless against a division rival like he did against the Raptors. Yeah, they probably could use a little more shooting off the bench. Yeah, it might take a little longer to figure out who the real closer on this team is. Yeah, those defensive numbers probably should pop a little harder. But the Sixers are loaded with length and have all the makings of being an absolute headache to score against. The Sixers are 8th in defensive rating, grab the game’s highest percentage of defensive rebounds, and are allowing the fewest second chance points. Offensively they've been respectable (15th in offensive rating, 10th in effective field goal percentage) so there's room for improvement. Just no more bagels from Embiid. 

Who needs Kyrie? The Celtics are doing just fine with Kemba Walker running the show as the Celtics have raced out to a 12-4 mark. Not having Gordon Hayward hurts since he was starting to look like the Hayward of old two seasons removed from that horrific leg injury. But he's ideally expected back by Christmas and the advanced metrics point to the Celtics being an elite team even while he’s on the shelf. Fourth in defensive rating, 6th in net rating (6.5), 11th in offensive rating, and tops in not turning the ball over and opponents’ points off turnovers (13.3), Boston’s numbers pop. We also must mention how Jayson Tatum appears to have taken his game up a notch, averaging 20.5 points per game, and how Marcus Smart is now a certified ferocious defender. While you can’t quantify what it means not to have Kyrie drama hanging over the entire organization, it certainly appears like the Celtics feel freer and less stressed without the distractions Irving attracts. Boston plays hard, plays tough, plays smart, and while I think they’re going to miss Al Horford come playoff time, they’re most definitely a serious contender in the East.

Sleep on the Raptors at your own peril. This team is still good. In fact, they look very good right now and losing Kawhi Leonard hasn’t hurt the Raptors one bit through 16 games. Come playoff time, that’ll be a different story, of course. But Toronto currently leads the league in fast break points (19.8), 3-point percentage (39.3), is 8th in the league in offensive rating, 6th in defensive rating, 4th in net rating, and we all see that Pascal Siakam, an early MVP candidate, has taken his game up another level after last season’s incredible jump. I think Fred VanVleet could be the most underrated player in the league and he’s been balling while Kyle Lowry mends from a thumb injury. The schedule hasn’t been that difficult early on, but there are impressive wins over the Lakers and Sixers and on the second night of a back-to-back the shorthanded Raptors gave the Clippers all they could on the road. This team plays hard every night and will be an incredibly tough out in the postseason.

PRETENDERS

I’ve made this point before—because others who have been covering the NBA longer than I have make it time and time again—but serious title contenders almost always find themselves in the top five when it comes to net rating at the end of the season. April feels forever away but guess who currently owns the No. 1 net rating? The Mavericks. I think we can all chalk up the incredible early season success of Dallas to the revelation that is Luka Doncic, arguably the MVP right now. He’s been playing like a cheat code, practically averaging a triple-double and leading Dallas to a surprising 11-5 record. But can he buck the trend and carry the Mavs to the promised land without a superstar running mate? You really need that in today’s NBA and Kristaps Porzingis hasn’t shown us yet that he’s back to being an All-Star caliber player like the old KP. Maybe that changes as he works off the rust. KP's roller coaster season aside, the Mavericks are winning because they can score and get easy buckets thanks to the brilliance of Doncic. Their offensive rating (117.4) is light years ahead of the second best team, the Wizards. They’re second in effective field goal percentage and assist/turnover ratio.

But I’m calling them pretenders because the defense is suspect (16th in defensive rating, 16th in opponents’ effective field goal percentage) and I don’t see that drastically changing with the personnel they have. Dallas only has three wins over teams above .500 and, real talk, can a team that arguably features Seth Curry as its third best player really be a title contender? Dallas looks like a lock for the playoffs if Doncic stays healthy, which is way more than I expected. Just don't fool yourself into thinking they're a serious contender while Doncic, at age 20, does ridiculous things on a nightly basis. 

Defense. Defense. Defense. We all know the Rockets can score. We all know James Harden is borderline unstoppable. And we all know the addition of Russell Westbrook has worked out so far. But you gotta stop somebody and the Rockets remain a bad defensive team. Opponents’ effective field goal percentage is 52.7, 18th in the league, and Houston’s defensive rating is a putrid 108.6, 12th worst in the game. No serious title contender can be this bad at defense. Westbrook has helped the Rockets offense be way more dynamic—Houston is the second best team in the league when it comes to pace (105.79). The last thing you want is the team that makes the 2nd highest percentage of its points via the three to get more possessions, which is exactly what the addition of Russ has added to the equation. Westbrook makes the Rockets harder to defend than they ever were with Chris Paul, but every NBA observer remains skeptical that his pairing with Harden is going to work in the playoffs where the game is played differently.

This one might surprise some people since the Nuggets are 12-3 and putting up impressive numbers defensively. Yes, you read that right. You’d expect the Nuggets to be an offensive juggernaut based on their personnel and franchise's history, but the defensive numbers are what really stand out. They’re 3rd in defensive rating and second in the league in opponents’ points off turnovers (13.9). Offensively, the Nuggets figure to be better than what we’ve seen so far after they finished 7th in offensive rating last season (currently 17th). This team, after all, is filled with guys who can score. So all that swooning aside, why are we calling the Nuggets pretenders? I want to see Denver play defense like this over the course of an entire season since last year’s numbers didn’t approach what we’ve seen so far.

It also, quite frankly, comes down to star power. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are a very nice duo. But they fall way behind a bunch of other ultra talented tandems in the West and star power usually wins out in the playoffs. Plus, what's the deal with Jokic so far this season? His numbers are down across the board. Another reason I can’t call the Nuggets a contender: track record. I can’t forget this year’s team is nearly the same squad that barely beat the Spurs in seven games in the first round of the playoffs and dropped Game 7 of the semis at home to Portland. Maybe that drives them this season and often you have to take a few gut-punches on your way to reaching the top in the NBA, but I have an easier time picturing the Nuggets bowing out early in the Western Conference playoffs than I do making a serious run.

Miami is 12-4. They’re off to a great start in the Jimmy Butler era. But who expects them to keep up a 66-win pace? Nobody. The Heat currently sit 7th in net rating and own the NBA’s 2nd best defensive rating. Impressive for sure. That being said, while Miami’s early season schedule hasn’t been easy, it hasn’t exactly been a grind. The Heat only feature two wins that really stand out: Milwaukee and Houston. They’ve been smoked by the Sixers, Nuggets, and Lakers. We like Jimmy a lot here at Complex. He’s truly a real one and easily one of the best two-way players. But there’s only so much he can do and until he gets more help we're not buying Miami as contenders—if you think he has the supporting cast to push the Heat past the Eastern Conference semis you’re smoking dust. Tyler Herro can shoot. The Bam Adebayo Fan Club continues to grow. Kendrick Nunn has been an incredible surprise. But does anyone other than Butler scare other squads? Get Jimmy more help and we'll reevaluate.