Accurately predicting the production of an NFL player is often an exercise in futility. Because the variables inherent in every snap, each quarter, and all 16 games over a 17 week period that can throw a wrench in an individual's pursuit of a magical, mythical number is so staggering that a NASA engineer couldn't calculate them. Regardless, it’s fun to predict the numbers, or lack thereof, some of the game's best players are going put up when we're two weeks removed from the start of the regular season. And when you add in the chance to cash in handsomely on an accurate prediction, in the words of the immortal Cosmo Kramer, "Giddy up."
But please keep a few things in mind before you blindly start putting dollars on a wager you think is a sure thing. For starters, props tend to be a sucker’s bet. The juice on a 'em is usually much higher than your average bet against the spread and with injuries, the completely random way a football bounces, and terrible officiating, it’s often tough to cash in on them because of those damn variables. Plus, public bettors always love taking the over on prop bets so it behooves you to go against what everyone else is taking and choose a few unders.
In fact, the good folks over at The Action Network did a deep dive on player props and found some interesting results:
When it comes to NFL season-long player props, you’re going to want to target unders to get that edge. Here’s now unders have done in the past two seasons:
2017: 250-101-10 (71.2%)
2018: 94-60 (61.0%)
So keeping the above in mind, we scoured the more popular player props available for your gambling pleasure and offered up our opinion on what’s presents the most value—because it’s forever about value. Heed the above advice, go win yourself some money, and thank us in January when you’re paying off your post-Christmas credit card bill with winning tickets.