Accurately predicting the production of an NFL player is often an exercise in futility. Because the variables inherent in every snap, each quarter, and all 16 games over a 17 week period that can throw a wrench in an individual's pursuit of a magical, mythical number is so staggering that a NASA engineer couldn't calculate them. Regardless, it’s fun to predict the numbers, or lack thereof, some of the game's best players are going put up when we're two weeks removed from the start of the regular season. And when you add in the chance to cash in handsomely on an accurate prediction, in the words of the immortal Cosmo Kramer, "Giddy up."
But please keep a few things in mind before you blindly start putting dollars on a wager you think is a sure thing. For starters, props tend to be a sucker’s bet. The juice on a 'em is usually much higher than your average bet against the spread and with injuries, the completely random way a football bounces, and terrible officiating, it’s often tough to cash in on them because of those damn variables. Plus, public bettors always love taking the over on prop bets so it behooves you to go against what everyone else is taking and choose a few unders.
In fact, the good folks over at The Action Network did a deep dive on player props and found some interesting results:
When it comes to NFL season-long player props, you’re going to want to target unders to get that edge. Here’s now unders have done in the past two seasons:
2017: 250-101-10 (71.2%)
2018: 94-60 (61.0%)
So keeping the above in mind, we scoured the more popular player props available for your gambling pleasure and offered up our opinion on what’s presents the most value—because it’s forever about value. Heed the above advice, go win yourself some money, and thank us in January when you’re paying off your post-Christmas credit card bill with winning tickets.
Drew Brees was only a few games away from earning MVP honors at age 39 last season. Of course, it went to 23-year-old Pat Mahomes who was ridiculously prolific. But if you want value, getting Rivers, entering his age 38 season, at +1400 odds is pretty damn enticing considering he’s coming off an excellent 12-4 campaign and the Chargers will be contenders again in the AFC. While there has been a slight dip in his numbers the past few seasons, Rivers was more accurate last season than he had been in the previous four and finished with one of the lowest interception percentages in recent years. If the Chargers flirt with a 12-4 record again and somehow beat out the Chiefs for the AFC West, Rivers is definitely going to be an MVP candidate.
Passing Yards — Kyler Murray U 3500.5
Brees has thrown for at least 32 scores in 10 of the last 11 seasons. This number seems easily reachable.
Jones might be one of the best receivers in the game, but he doesn’t catch a lot of touchdowns. Look at his numbers: he’s never caught more than 10 in one season and averages just 6.34 per season. Plus, only two receivers finished with double digit TDs the past two seasons (DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams). So give me the under. As an added bonus, we can push with this bet since it’s a whole number.
Receiving Yards — Odell Beckham Jr. U 1275.5
Can push with this one, as well. For sure Barkley’s going to break off a few long runs to the endzone, and after scoring 11 TDs on the ground in his rookie campaign, you would think he would blow by this number. But if he’s relying on the unreliable Eli Manning and/or Daniel Jones combo to set the stage for him all season long, beating that number could be a struggle.
The Jets are going to use their prized off-season free agent acquisition a ton—including as a very dangerous pass catcher. But if Bell is healthy, he’s good for at least 1,200 yards on the ground. And after a season away from the field (and most likely no preseason reps this summer) he’ll be incredibly fresh and able to absorb a pounding.
Most Sacks — Chris Jones
Washington’s Jay Gruden (+300) is the favorite to get canned first. That seems logical since his quarterback situation is a mess and they’re not going to sniff the playoffs and we all know he coaches for an owner who is a headcase. But I’m searching for value, so give me O’Brien (at +1200). What have the Texans done under him in six seasons? He’s only four games over .500 with one playoff win. And, hypothetically speaking, if Deshaun Watson struggles and Houston limps to a 3-6 record thanks to a schedule that’s much tougher early on compared to later, I’ll take O’Brien at that number.
