It's #elxn42 and you're still figuring out who to vote for. So you decide to look at the polls. In the last week of the federal election, pollsters will be issuing their best predictions on which party might win, the number of seats and whether or not we might end up with a minority government.
It's a lot of noise. Ekos, Forum, Ipos and many many others will be issuing their predictions based on their surveys with margins of errors but the thing to remember is that polls are a moving target. As David Epstein said in this paper for Columbia University, take polls with a grain of salt, look at more than one and understand their context.
This election has seen more than just polls. There has been a rise in other data that's there to help people decide or to sway their decision. Some are non-partisan, some definitely have an agenda. It's up to you to decide how you want to use their information. Here are a few interesting resources that offer more than a snapshot in time.
Threehundredeight provides projection numbers for the federal and provincial elections in a non-partisan manner. It's run by Éric Grenier, a writer who specializes in Canadian politics and history. He's providing the polls for the CBC and updates his site on a daily basis.
Strategic Voting has an agenda and it's to vote out Stephen Harper. The goal is to elect as many "progressive MPs as possible in federal elections through strategic voting." It determines which party could win the riding if voters voted strategically and makes recommendations. This election, there are 128 ridings where strategic voting could influence who wins.
This isn't a poll but it falls under the 'really cool so we're writing about it' umbrella. VoteNote is an app that "answers the basic questions of where, when, who & how" to vote. It tells you the names of your candidates, the location of your polling station and will remind you when to vote. It was created by students who figured the best place to put voter information was on the one thing most of us carry all the time. It might help you make a decision while you're waiting in line.
Polls aren't always accurate but they can suggest an outcome. They're another information tool that you can use before you vote on October 19th.
