When the Boston Red Sox broke the 86-year-old “Curse of the Bambino” in 2004, owner John Henry likely thought he had won Boston fans over for life. Red Sox fans were starved for a champion at that time and Henry, just two years into his ownership, had delivered the goods. Henry also renovated Fenway Park in those early years of his ownership, and incredibly won three more World Series titles, in 2007, 2013, and 2018.
After all that success, never in a million years would King Henry think the peasants … err, fans … would turn against him.
“Look at all I’ve done for you!,” Henry likely thought. “Buy the highest-priced tickets in baseball, spend $20 on a single beer, spend $7 on a hot dog, and do it with a smile on your face.”
Turns out, buying the highest-priced tickets in baseball, a $7 hot dog, and spending $20 on a stale Sam Summer is all well and good … so long as the team is winning.
Chants of “sell the team!” routinely filled Fenway Park through the first few months of this season, as the Sox spent much of the first half of the 2026 season in the AL East basement. It’s been a slow decline for one of baseball’s most iconic franchises, as the team has finished last in the AL East three times since its most recent World Series title.
The Sox have been playing winning baseball of late, though. They won 9 in a row before the All-Star break and 14-of-16 overall to put them firmly in contention for a Wild Card spot—something which seemed unfathomable just three weeks ago.
It’s clear that the Red Sox have their swagger back, highlighted by Willson Contreras’s awesome Home Run Derby performance in Philadelphia, in which he clearly relished playing the role of a pro wrestling heel in front of a rowdy rival crowd.
So, can the Sox keep this up? Or has this stretch just been a cruel fluke in the early years of the “Curse of Mookie Betts?”
Below, we’ll look at 5 reasons to believe in the Red Sox resurgence and five reasons to be pessimistic.
5 reasons to believe in the Red Sox
Pitching, pitching, pitching
Red Sox fans know that elite pitching is paramount when building a champion. The 2004 Sox had Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling, the 2007 Sox had Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon, the 2013 Sox had Jon Lester and Koji Uehara, and the 2018 Sox had Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi.
The 2026 Sox staff isn’t exactly loaded with household names, but the group currently has the fourth-best team ERA (3.59) in all of baseball. Connelly Early, Payton Tolle, and Sonny Gray have been spectacular of late. Ranger Suarez and closer Aroldis Chapman were both strong enough in the first half to earn AL All-Star roster spots.
Toughness
Boston fans love tough players, and this team is starting to show an identity as a blue-collar group.
Most notable was Caleb Durbin sliding into first base on a Wednesday in Colorado in June. Durbin dislocated his pinky finger on the play, but popped it back into place on his own. The very next night, Durbin was back in the lineup and blasted a key home run off of Cam Schlittler in a win over the hated Yankees.
Last week, Anthony Seigler had a nasty collision at home plate against the White Sox that resulted in a right arm contusion. Seigler was right back in the lineup the next night, and he scorched the Mets on Friday night with a two-run homer.
Even mental toughness has come into play, as the Red Sox dealt with major flight issues in both June and July. They were held up in Colorado in June, flew back to Boston, and promptly swept the Yankees. They were held up in Chicago last week, flew to New York, and then swept the Mets.
The return of the ace
When the 2026 MLB season began, Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet was +600 to win AL Cy Young. The only person ahead of him on the Fanatics Sportsbook odds board was the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal (+170).
The Sox’s ace hasn’t pitched since April 25 as he is dealing with left shoulder inflammation, but a return sometime in the second half is likely.
“I have target dates I won’t share,” a laughing Crochet told MassLive in late June. “I have target dates in my mind, but I don’t know what the team’s target date is. I just want to get back as soon as I can.”
The return of the Roman Empire
Not only have the Red Sox missed their ace for the brunt of the season, they have also missed arguably their top offensive player in Roman Anthony. Anthony was getting AL MVP sleeper buzz prior to the start of the season, but a partially torn carpometacarpal ligament in his right ring finger placed him on the shelf.
The crown jewel of the Red Sox farm system gave Boston fans a taste of his potential last August when he belted 6 home runs and drove in 13 runs, but Anthony has played in just 30 games so far this season.
Anthony is also likely to be back at some point in the second half.
A weak American League
The American League is wide open—as wide as the wall in left field at Fenway.
Only six American League teams have a positive run-differential on the season, and the Sox are one of them at +27.
The Yankees, considered by most to be the best team in the AL, are extremely vulnerable as they recently endured a brutal 9-15 stretch from June 18 to July 9, which included a four-game sweep at Fenway from the Red Sox. There also isn’t a timetable for Aaron Judge’s return from a rib injury.
The Red Sox, who are currently 46-48, are a half-game out of the final AL Wild Card spot. If the Sox were in the National League, they’d still be 6 games out.
5 reasons to be pessimistic about the Red Sox
The win streak is a fluke
Prior to the All-Star break, the Red Sox rattled off three straight road sweeps as they took down the Angels, White Sox, and Mets.
The combined record of those teams at the moment? 128-161.
The Angels and Mets reside in the basement of their respective divisions, while the White Sox are 50-45.
Even going back to the highly publicized sweep of the Yankees in late June, it must be noted that the Yanks were without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, both of whom have hammered Red Sox pitching in recent seasons.
Also, the Red Sox have been atrocious at Fenway this season as they own a 17-27 home record. Those 17 home wins are the fewest in MLB.
Progress is … bad?
There is a large segment of the Red Sox fanbase that wants the team to completely bottom out. Like, worst-record in baseball bad.
They consider that the only way that Henry would get back to the spending ways that helped build the championship teams of the 2000s and 2010s.
Henry seems perfectly content, though, in being a middle-of-the-road club, with a middle-of-the-road team salary. The Red Sox have the seventh-highest payroll in MLB at $256.1 million, but are lightyears behind of the likes of the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees when it comes to spending.
The Red Sox have made the postseason just twice this decade. In 2021, they lost to the Astros in the ALCS, 4 games to 2.
In 2022, the Sox took a big step back, went 78-84, and missed the playoffs.
In 2023, they posted the same record and missed the postseason again.
2024? 81-81 and 13 games back of the Yankees.
2025? An 89-73 record and return to the postseason, but a 2-1 series loss to the rival Yankees in the Wild Card Round.
Broken promises
If the Red Sox continue their winning ways the next few weeks, but do not add anyone of significance ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline then the Boston PD might want to get the barricades ready on Lansdowne Street.
The Red Sox front office made promises of adding elite talent after the catastrophic trade of Mookie Betts in 2020, after letting Xander Bogaerts walk in free agency in 2022, after last year’s trade of Rafael Devers, and after letting team-leader Alex Bregman walk in free agency this past winter.
They have not fulfilled those promises in the least bit, almost always opting for cheap options to fill holes.
Why should anyone be surprised if they don’t add salary at the trade deadline?
No star power
Roman Anthony is a nice piece, but he is a few seasons away from even coming close to the level of a true MVP-candidate like Mookie Betts, let alone a franchise icon like David Ortiz.
Garrett Crochet is a terrific pitcher, but he is just 30-27 in his career and has a 3.17 career ERA.
Last season was the first season in his career that he finished a season with an above-.500 record. This season, in the six games he started, Crochet went 3-3 with an ugly 6.30 ERA.
Both Anthony and Crochet have been injured for the majority of the season.
Outside of Anthony and Crochet, there aren’t many players on this Red Sox roster that move the needle.
But at least the no-name dudes are available to play, unlike Anthony and Crochet.
Lack of leadership
Alex Cora, who led the Red Sox to the 2018 World Series, was relieved of his duties on April 25 of this season and replaced by Chad Tracy, manager of the Triple-A team in Worcester. The Red Sox went 10-17 out of the gate this season before Cora was fired.
Also let go at that time was longtime game-planning coach and former catcher Jason Varitek. Varitek represented the heart-and-soul of the Red Sox, and he was the lone holdover from Boston’s glory years of the 2000s.
Tracy has done a nice job in his interim role, but no one is going to confuse him with Terry Francona anytime soon.
Boston’s Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow is seen by many in Boston as an empty, analytics-driven suit, who is a terrible communicator.
Complex Bets is the premier destination for the intersection of sports, culture, and fandom, featuring original programming for the modern bettor and trader. Join our community of over 1 million fans by following @complexbets on Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and X, and subscribe on YouTube for exclusive storytelling across sports and prediction markets.
