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The NBA TV Analyst Crew Gives Their 2012-13 NBA Season Predictions

Will the Heat repeat?

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Tonight the 2012-13 NBA season gets underway tonight with most of the attention being centered around the debut of the revamped Los Angeles Lakers and the defending champion Miami Heat receiving their championship rings. The King with a ring? Yes, haters. There are tons of questions as we start the season: Will LeBron James be able to build upon his year-long stretch of dominance? Who is going to come out on top in the West? Also, what about the new flopping rule, what effect will that have on games?

To answer those questions and more we spoke with NBA TV’s analysts to break down what fans should expect this season. NBA TV’s Brent Barry, Greg Anthony, Chris Webber, Dennis Scott, and Steve Smith gave us their predictions and insight on which teams are sleeper candidates, who their favorites are for the Rookie of the Year, MVP, and of course the 2012-13 NBA Champions.

Interview by Rafael Canton (@RafelitoC7)

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Thoughts on the New Flopping Rule

Brent Barry: It’s more of an awareness rule. For the league to come out and talk about fining guys, it sort of reminds me of when a few years back David Stern wanted to impose a dress code, and guys needed to come and dress a little bit more respectful to their line of work. It was more of just letting players know that they need to be aware of what they’re doing. That was off the court and this was on the court. I don’t see it as an impactful ruling, and obviously there are a million questions about enforcement of this rule, but just the fact that they’re aware of it and that the players know is important.
Chris Webber: I think that it should be installed and named the Vlade Divac rule because he’s the one who originated it along with the European aspect of the game. I’m very happy about the rule, and I hope it’s enforced, and I hope it changes the mentality of the game to go back to a more physical “be a man” play basketball type of game, so hopefully it has a great impact on this game.
Greg Anthony: When I initially heard it, I was not a fan. I thought it was kind of silly to go down that path, but if it can eliminate some of the flopping, I think the league benefits. We’ve always had flopping, but it has gone to an infinite level and I think it somewhat has had a negative effect on the game. I’m hoping that this will create a deterrent and ultimately if it’s working we’re not talking going to be about it, and that’s what I’m hoping will materialize. I hope guys understand the impact of this and work at just trying to play the game and not create an environment where you’re putting the officials in bad places and it’s not flopping just defensively, we get a lot of flopping offensively as well.
Dennis Scott: I think the flopping rule is great. I wish we would’ve had it back in the '90s when I played. It cleans up the game and gives the offensive player more interest to drive the ball to the basket knowing that if a guy takes a charge it’s going to be legit and not someone just trying to flop. Also, for the big guys down low, they can use their strength and finesse to try and get to the rim without worrying about a guy flopping on a play.
Steve Smith: When you start to look at the flopping rule, people look at what catches you off guard which are the fines. It seems like referees will not have a hand in it. A committee will make the decision on the flops. I think they’ve got the players’ attention. I don't think it was an illegal act because everyone tries to find an advantage and I think you had to put more onus on the referees who do a phenomenal job. No one wants bad calls, but that’s in all sports.

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Teams That Will Take a Step Back

Brent Barry: Chicago Bulls. I don’t think anyone’s saying that the Bulls won’t be an interesting team to watch, but they lost a lot of what they were about last year in terms of their heart. C.J. Watson and Omer Asik are gone, and Kyle Korver is now in Atlanta. They were a lot of pieces to a puzzle that many people thought were one piece away from becoming a complete team with Tom Thibodeau. Now it seems like when you’re making a puzzle on your coffee table and you lose six pieces, and when you get to the end you get really upset that you don’t have the rest of that thousand piece puzzle. I think that will be Chicago’s frustration this year. They gave away too many pieces.
Chris Webber: Chicago Bulls. I think Derrick Rose is going to come back and play great, but I just see him needing more help than he’s had in the past. I think they are going to have a good regular season as always but you don’t know what they are capable of in the playoffs.
Greg Anthony: Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs. You have to assume that Chicago will be profoundly impacted by not having Derrick Rose so that means the first half of the season or potentially the entire season will be a step back. You may not risk even bringing him back if that team is not playing at a level where you feel that he can make a difference and allow you to make that run in the Eastern Conference. San Antonio is a team that I’m interested to see. Are they still going to be elite, or are they going to be more like Utah when they had Stockton and Malone on the back-end of their careers where they were still solid but you didn’t view them as championship caliber. San Antonio was viewed as championship caliber the the last couple of years, is this the year where they take a step back? That will be interesting to see.
Dennis Scott: Orlando Magic. The obvious choice is Orlando. There's no Dwight Howard and they basically got nothing for him.
Steve Smith: Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, and Minnesota Timberwolves. I think the Orlando Magic are the obvious choice with no Dwight Howard, but I think another team taking a step back will be the Atlanta Hawks. The loss of Joe Johnson, despite some solid acquisitions, will make them take a step back. In the Western Conference, I think injuries played such a huge role for the Minnesota Timberwolves. They will take a step back because of injuries.

Sleeper Teams

Brent Barry: The Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers, Brooklyn Nets, and New York Knicks. I don’t see anyone sneaking up on Miami and the level of play that they’re at. Indiana can cause some problems, and between what’s going on in the boroughs between Brooklyn and New York, it'll be fun to see which of those teams can put it together. Then there's also what Doc Rivers does in Boston with some young legs, and Rajon Rondo maybe taking a much bigger role in Boston, but I don’t think anyone in the East will be creeping up on the Heat.
Chris Webber: Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors. The West is so tough that a lot of good teams are not going to make the playoffs in the West, whereas in the East a lot of bad teams are going to make the playoffs. That being said, my sleeper teams would be Denver and Golden State.
Greg Anthony: **Dallas Mavericks**, Indiana Pacers, Golden State Warriors, Brooklyn Nets. I think Dallas is a team that a lot of people thought really got left out when they weren’t able to get Deron Williams or Dwight Howard. They have a roster of veterans that could make them competitive if Nowitzki comes back healthy. Indiana is a team I’m interested to see if they can continue their upward trajectory in the Eastern Conference because the East has gotten a lot better. Golden State could be a team that you see making that push to improve and make the postseason. Brooklyn is a team that I’m really excited to see. With Joe Johnson and Deron Williams both being healthy, Brook Lopez coming back from injury, and Kris Humphries with the ability to control the defensive backboard.
Dennis Scott: Denver Nuggets and Brooklyn Nets. The sleeper team out West is the Denver Nuggets. I think George Karl is one of those coaches who is determined to win with his style, pace, and uptempo style of game and I think Andre Iguodala fits right into what he needed. In the Eastern Conference, I think the sleeper team is probably going to be Brooklyn. Of course, all the hype of the new arena and the move is a great storyline, but they’re going to be the team that is going to surprise people in the East because of Deron Williams and Joe Johnson.
Steve Smith: Chicago Bulls and Denver Nuggets. In the East, it will probably be the Chicago Bulls, not that they will win the championship because everyone is looking at them with Derrick Rose out and him not being there this season. I think that they will have a solid year before Rose returns and hopefully he returns this season. In the Western Conference, I would go with the Denver Nuggets. They’re going to sneak up on some people.

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Most Improved Player of the Year

Brent Barry: Jeff Teague, Paul George, or DeMarcus Cousins.There's no idea who may be moved where throughout the season so there's no cleary way of telling who'll improve. Someone like Jeff Teague who has more control of the team in Atlanta with Joe Johnson gone, or maybe Paul George who had made some great strides last year. By the numbers, you look at what [DeMarcus] Cousins can do for the Kings. He can have a pretty monster year statistically.
Chris Webber: I can't say until some games have been played.
Greg Anthony: Andray Blatche. With the Wizards he just didn’t really perform because of the lack of leadership, and I think that he’s a guy who will be more stable in this environment in Brooklyn. I think his talent is unquestioned, but his maturity level will be better. He’s going to get some more opportunities with this roster in Brooklyn.
Dennis Scott: Nicolas Batum. At the end of the year, he banged up his knee, didn’t get an extension, didn’t finish up the season strong. He got his money, now he’s going to be a starter the whole year. I look for him to have a breakout year.
Steve Smith: Klay Thompson. He’s a young kid who I think has one of those skill sets that has been lost in the league. He can flat out shoot the basketball and play with or without the basketball. I like his demeanor and approach, so I think he will win the award.

Sixth Man of the Year

Brent Barry: Lamar Odom or James Harden. I haven’t thought about it very deep because it’s hard to figure out before the season starts, but Lamar Odom could return to form, and be one of these guys who comes off the bench and explodes. It won’t be by the numbers, but by just what he can do and contribute. Harden’s role might be a little bit different, so it’s hard to tell before an actual month of basketball passes by.
Chris Webber: James Harden or Jason Terry. The Sixth Man of the Year in my mind is definitely between Jason Terry in Boston and Harden. Harden’s role is to be Sixth Man of the Year. Harden would be a starter on most teams, and if he doesn’t have a year where he’s nominated at least for the award, then he’s not doing his job because he’s supposed to be that impactful option off the bench. I’m looking at it as a competition between Harden and Terry.
Greg Anthony: James Harden or Jason Terry. They have a great chance to continue the trend they have set here. What’s going to be interesting is how teams decide to play moving forward. Since the rosters aren’t set, it’s hard to say who’s going to put who in what role. Lamar Odom is another guy who I think can have a big bounce back year. He’ll probably be in that sixth man role, so he’s someone I can see making a big jump this year.
Dennis Scott: Jason Terry. He has to have a big year if the Celtics think they can get back and challenge Miami again in the Eastern Conference Finals and get to the Finals. Terry has to have one of those Sixth Man of the Year type of seasons for them to get back.
Steve Smith: Nick Young, Jason Terry, or Jamal Crawford. I think Nick Young is one of those sleeper names. Obviously Jamal Crawford and Jason Terry have to be considered because they’re on winning teams. They’ve both done it for years and years and rightfully so. They’re both on playoff teams. I think also Nick Young for Philadelphia if he’s not starting could be Sixth Man of the Year.


**These predictions were given prior to James Harden's trade to the Houston Rockets**

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Rookie of the Year

Brent Barry: Anthony Davis. [Jonas] Valanciunas is an interesting guy. He’s NBA ready, and maybe more ready than Anthony Davis. He should be an interesting story. Bradley Beal is talked about a lot. He had a great summer, and with John Wall’s injury, does he play a lot more? The darkhorse behind Anthony Davis would be Damian Lillard in Portland. He’s a fantastic scorer, but Portland’s identity is shaken right now and not stirred, so he has a chance to make a huge impact.
Chris Webber: Anthony Davis. He is going to win the award because he’s going to get a chance to play extended minutes and have a huge impact on both ends of the floor. I think he’s a young man that a lot of people feel has a chance to be really good.
Greg Anthony: Anthony Davis or Damian Lillard. Just from watching film of Lillard he has a good chance, but I think Davis has a good chance because defensively blocking shots and rebounding he should be able to control on that end. Guards have the ball a lot in their hands, so if [the voting gives priority to offense] then Lillard could take it. I think Rookie of the Year is wide open more than any of the other races.
Dennis Scott: Damian Lillard. I’m going to go with the guard out of Weber State.
Steve Smith: Anthony Davis. The first choice for me would be Anthony Davis. I think he has the best chance to win Rookie of the Year. Damian Lillard in Portland with his offensive ability has a chance to give Anthony Davis a run but if I had to pick right now I'd go with Davis.

MVP

Brent Barry: LeBron James. I will go out on a limb to say that LeBron has another MVP year. I do worry a little bit about exhaustion and fatigue level. I still believe his work ethic, the place that he wants to be in, and the level he wants to be considered will make him tough to beat.
Chris Webber: LeBron James. It’s really hard seeing anyone winning MVP over LeBron James right now. You have other candidates like Kevin Durant, but I think because he’s a scorer and because he has other explosive players on his team, it may be hard for him.
Greg Anthony: LeBron James. Right now it’s a toss-up between LeBron and Kevin Durant. I would lean slightly towards LeBron because I think he has to take more responsibility this year in part because the Heat will be small, which means he will have to play bigger like we saw this past Finals. I think that his overall impact will help him win the award, but I think that Kevin Durant at his age has so much more upside in terms of how much better a player he can become which is kind of scary.
Dennis Scott: Kevin Durant.
Steve Smith: LeBron James. He won it last year, but I think he'll take it again after seeing him in China this preseason. Looking at the team surrounding him—because a lot of it has to do with the team—it looks like he hasn’t lost a step, and he seems more comfortable, so I have to give it to LeBron. A close second could be Kevin Durant.

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2012-13 NBA Champions

Brent Barry: Miami Heat. Another year together between LeBron, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh and last year they fought through a lot of physical problems, but I think they got over a lot of things on the mental side.
Chris Webber: Miami Heat. My prediction for the NBA Finals is Miami and the best team out of the West. It’s wide open between Miami and whoever comes out of the West. I think you always have to beat the champion so barring injury I would have to say Miami will be champions again.
Greg Anthony: Miami Heat or Oklahoma City Thunder. I’m leaning towards a rematch of last season between OKC and Miami again. Obviously the Lakers have improved, the Clippers have improved, so it’s no foregone conclusion right now, but today that’s where I would be leaning.
Dennis Scott: Miami Heat or Oklahoma City Thunder. Right now I have Miami and OKC getting back to the Finals, but it’s hard to say right now who’s going to win it all without seeing anybody play this year.
Steve Smith: Miami Heat. I would have to go with the Miami Heat repeating. When you look at them as a team that won the championship and then they added Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. Those are added strengths and there probably wasn’t much that they subtracted from their team. I think they have come together and I have them playing the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Finals. I think OKC gets back for the same reasons. Eric Maynor who was hurt and Perry Jones III will help them. I think the Lakers will battle OKC, but I see OKC and Miami in the Finals and Miami winning out.

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