2023 NFL Mock Draft V. 2: Predicting Round 1

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I’m not sure that I’m buying that Bryce Young played at 200+ pounds last season at Alabama but he did weigh in over that threshold at the NFL Combine. Young is a historical outlier in terms of size but the film against top competition is too hard to ignore. He’s accurate, incredibly poised in the pocket and comes up clutch in big moments. Young checks a ton of boxes and has beaten the odds to date and could be a guy that truly changes the way people evaluate the position in the future. We sat down with Bryce Young recently before the NFL Draft. 

When looking at the roster, it’s no secret that Houston needs a long-term answer at the quarterback position.  Stroud put on one of the best throwing sessions that I’ve ever seen at the NFL Combine, putting his top traits of accuracy and touch on display for NFL teams. With a new head coach in Demeco Ryans, Houston’s rebuild would have a nice foundation selecting Stroud with the second pick. 

Indianapolis can’t risk another team jumping them in the order so jumping up a spot to secure a top quarterback is a sensible move. We knew Anthony Richardson was an elite athlete, but he blew even the most absurd expectations out of the water. He arguably tested as the best athlete we’ve ever seen for the quarterback position. Richardson is a dual-threat quarterback who maneuvers the pocket with poise and can throw the deep ball which fits what Shane Steichen loves to do offensively. If he can develop a changeup and fix some of the mechanical issues in his lower half that are currently affecting his accuracy, the upside is there to pay off a risk like this.

Arizona’s roster is in bad shape and a trade back to acquire additional assets seems like the smart approach. Even after the move back in the order, they’re able to get a blue-chip prospect at a position of need in Will Anderson which feels like a best of both worlds scenario. With off-the-charts productivity, a red-hot motor that never stops and the ability to affect the game as a pass rusher and run defender, Anderson is a good bet for the first non-quarterback taken in this draft class. Arizona is a team in transition, needing an elite talent to build around on defense and Anderson is absolutely that type of prospect. 

Seattle is living the good life right now, having made the postseason last season but they also still have a top five pick at their disposal. After finding some gems in the secondary last season, adding a pass rusher with the potential like Tyree Wilson makes some sense here. Wilson has a massive wingspan and unreal power capacity in his hands while being able to rush from different alignments. He’s still a clear work in progress but his rare build gives hope for the future. 

Detroit made a strong push for the postseason last year before ultimately falling short, but the arrow is definitely pointing up. Jeff Okudah’s career has been rocky to start but that shouldn’t scare them away from taking another cornerback high in the draft. Gonzalez is a build-a-corner with size, speed and incredibly fluid hips, all of which led a breakout junior campaign in which he showed off his ball production.  Gonzalez has rare athleticism for the position and as one of the younger prospects at his position in this class, he’s just now scratching the surface of what he could potentially become. 

With Derek Carr in New Orleans, Las Vegas is looking to turn the page at the quarterback position. With so many other needs, particularly on defense, I’m not sure that they’re going to be a team that’s aggressive in moving up the board. Even staying at No. 7, they’re able to pick up Will Levis who certainly has some desirable traits, a hair-trigger quick release and howitzer for an arm, that Josh McDaniels will be eager to get his hands on. Levis might not be a guy that you want starting immediately but he has experience working within a pro-style offense at Kentucky, making his projection more optimistic. 

Nolan Smith started his combine week by standing out at the interview podium and finished it by flashing an unbelievable 4.39 40-yard dash time. He’s on the smaller side for the position but he actually holds up insanely well in run defense and has a lightning quick get-off as a pass rusher. He’s still developing his pass rushing toolkit but with A+ intangibles and athleticism, he’s absolutely worth a top ten pick in this class. Atlanta has been searching for a premier pass rusher to pair with Grady Jarrett for a while and Smith has that potential, even if it could take him a little bit to get there.

Chicago received a king’s ransom for the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, including multiple premier picks and a go-to wide receiver in D.J. Moore. To no one’s surprise, Georgia will be well-represented once again in the early portion of the 2023 NFL Draft and it’s not a stretch to say that Carter has been the most gifted player on that roster over the past two seasons. With a unique combination of strength and explosiveness, Carter’s ceiling as a player knows no bounds and it wouldn’t shock me one bit if he ended up being the best player in this class. There are some questions that he’ll have to answer about his maturity but he’s just too talented, with way too much upside, to drop much further than this on draft weekend. This is a steal for Chicago. 

In a class with only a few guys that I’m comfortable labeling as blue-chip prospects, Robinson is easily one of them. Convention wisdom will frown on taking a running back this high, but you don’t often see guys with this level of agility and creativity as a runner while also being a dynamic threat as a receiver. With two first round picks and a loaded roster, the Eagles are one of the teams where a move like this would make sense. By adding Robinson to the mix, Philadelphia can dominate on the ground and force teams to load the box which will open up their potent vertical offense even more.

The Tennessee Titans look like a team that’s headed full speed ahead towards a rebuild and honestly, that’s probably what should have happened last offseason. Make no mistake about it, they were atrocious up front last season and without Taylor Lewan, a salary cap casualty, they’ll be in the market for a potential franchise left tackle like Paris Johnson Jr. A good mover at the position with elite length, there’s significant upside as a pass blocker while already being an impact player in the zone run game. This a difficult team to gauge the future on but Johnson is a building block that they should be very interested in up front.

Houston already added their quarterback of the future in this mock and now Demeco Ryans heads back to his defensive roots to add a pass rusher in Myles Murphy. Murphy has an NFL frame and is a very good athlete, with highs that are extremely enticing but the lack of consistency within his game is a bit confusing. He opted out of testing at the NFL Combine but should test out of the gym at his pro day which will give people some more insight into his athletic profile. 

Full disclosure, I’m not sure that the Jets will be selecting anywhere on day one of draft weekend as this pick would undoubtedly be a part of the package to acquire Aaron Rodgers from Green Bay. If they do keep this pick, Jones is an intriguing option to fix their left tackle issue after Mekhi Becton’s struggles to stay healthy and available. Jones is a bully in the run game who’s a tank when pulling and possesses rare athleticism for the position. There are some technical things to clean up with his hand placement and timing but it’s important to remember that he’s only 20 years old.

The Patriots probably have more glaring needs at receiver and offensive tackle but the value on the board has to make sense. Devon Witherspoon didn’t test at the NFL Combine due to a hamstring injury but with Jonathan Jones potentially pricing himself out in free agency, this is a perfect fit. The Patriots cornerbacks seem to always have a couple of things in common- ball skills and the ability to hold up in man coverage, both of which are check marks on Witherspoon’s scouting report. Taking advantage of a stronger cornerback class instead of reaching for a wide receiver seems like the wise approach.

The Green Bay Packers seem to be at a crossroads here with Aaron Rodgers future hanging in the balance, but we know one thing- they like bigger, athletic players. Enter Lukas Van Ness, nicknamed “Hercules”, a power pass rusher with an uncanny ability to enforce explode through the chest of opposing offensive tackles.  To be clear, Van Ness is still very raw in his pass rushing journey after not even starting for the Hawkeyes this past season but there are certainly tools to work with if you bring him along over time. 

We’re still in wait-and-see mode with who will be under center next season for the Commanders, but the future of their offensive line is a bit murky. Peter Skoronski is one of the most polished offensive lineman to come out in recent years and would be an immediate upgrade along the interior. He won’t hit the length thresholds for some teams looking to play him at tackle which is the only reason that he could potentially fall this far. He’s an underrated athlete who’s technically sound and should be an immediate impact player and high-caliber starter, even if it’s at guard instead of tackle.

Pittsburgh had a remarkable second half turnaround last season which knocked them back down the draft board a bit further than originally anticipated. Joey Porter Jr., the son or former Steelers outside linebacker Joey Porter, makes a ton of sense at this point in the draft. Porter uses his jaw dropping length (34-inch arms) to engulf receivers at the line of scrimmage and has enough long speed to thrive. With the Steelers playing more man coverage these days, they might not pass up on the opportunity to allow Porter to press the likes of division foes, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins for Sundays to come. 

Detroit is in a great spot with two first round picks and while the defense needs to priority number one in the offseason, there’s a great spot here to add another unique element offensively by taking Dalton Kincaid. Currently without a real tight end option on the roster, Kincaid would be an unbelievable compliment to their young receivers, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. Their offensive line is ascending with young talent and while Jared Goff might not be franchise guy to take them to a Super Bowl, we have seen him be highly effective in good environments throughout his career. There’s a real argument to be made that he’s the best pure pass catcher in an otherwise underwhelming class.

The Bucs did what they had to do by sacrificing financial flexibility to run it back for one more super bowl run despite falling short. Now, Jamel Dean is likely going to cash out elsewhere in free agency and that leaves a huge hole opposite Carlton Davis. Deonte Banks destroyed the testing portion of the NFL Combine by running a blazing 4.36 40-yard dash at 6-0, 197 pounds. He’s uber confident and loves to play physical at the line of scrimmage to disrupt the timing of opposing wide receivers. Consider him an early riser through the process. 

Seattle made the smart decision to bring back Geno Smith on what I would consider a team friendly contract but they really need to get him a slot weapon to compliment D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the outside. After missing most of last season at Ohio State, Smith-Njigba didn’t run the 40-yard dash but scored extremely well in the three-cone and short shuttle drills which matches what’s on tape. He’s a nuanced route runner who is a chain mover underneath and exactly what the Seahawks offense is missing alongside their vertical attack. 

The end of the first round is really where the wide receiver run could theoretically start and Flowers provides the Chargers with something that their offense is desperately missing: speed. Flowers is all gas and no breaks, and he’s played the majority of his snaps on the outside which is helpful with Keenan Allen manning the slot in this offense for another year. Flowers is a three-level winner who Justin Herbert could rely on to stretch the field vertically next season while also being a dynamite yards after catch threat. 

Marcus Peters is hitting free agency leaving Baltimore with a void in their secondary, one that Cam Smith just seems destined to fill. Smith is a confident, versatile player whose twitchiness is truly on display when aligning in off-coverage. He has plenty of experience matching up with top-tier wide receivers in the SEC, including following around Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt last season in their matchup. Baltimore was fortunate enough to have Kyle Hamilton fall in their laps last season and they strike again here by tightening up their secondary for years to come.

Father time is starting to catch up to Adam Thielen and the Vikings definitely need to be in the market for a compliment to Justin Jefferson. Jordan Addison is a route runner technician who’s arguably the best separator in the class and possesses enough inside/outside versatility to thrive in this offense. Jefferson saw an unbelievable amount of attention last season, in part because defenses didn’t have anyone else to fear getting open. Addison has the quicks to come in and fix that by being a reliable No. 2  wide out. 

Play speed wasn’t really a concern on tape but Branch didn’t quite run as fast as I expected in Indy, posting a 4.58 40-yard dash which caused a slight fall here in this mock. But make no mistake about it, he’s a baller who thrives in the box and plays a notch above his listed weight class. The Jags also are without a true slot corner on the roster and Branch, with his coverage skill set, can step right in as a rookie and hold down that spot for the long-term. 

It’s not that the Giants haven’t tried adding to their weaponry over the past couple years, it’s just that the investments unfortunately haven’t paid off. That’s why Michael Mayer makes a ton of sense here in the first round. He’s a functional in-line blocker who also happens to be tough as nails as a receiver over the middle of the field. Brian Daboll and the rest of the Giants brass clearly believe in Daniel Jones enough to ink him to a long-term deal, now they need to surround him with a more competent supporting cast. 

Dallas was lucky enough to maintain Dan Quinn as their defensive coordinator for another year but in order for him to take this defense from really good to elite, he needs another starting caliber cornerback across from Trevon Diggs. An extremely young prospect who won’t turn 21 years old until June, Ringo is a bigger bodied corner with blazing straight-line speed. It might take some time for him to reach his potential, but this is a risk worth taking if you’re Dallas given the dire need at the position.

It’s a foregone conclusion that Tremaine Edmunds is going to get the bag from someone in free agency, the only question remains is whether or not that he gets it from Buffalo. In the likely scenario that he walks, Sanders is an interesting proposition here. Sanders is an explosive and rangy athlete who can fly sideline to sideline and despite having played off-ball linebacker for just one season, he’s not a complete project as a processor. He just needs more reps and like Edmunds coming out of college, it may take some time for him to fully hit his stride, but he could still start on this defense early on as a rookie.

The Bengals offensive line took a positive step forward last year but there’s some looming uncertainty regarding the long-term future at offensive tackle. Darnell Wright comes loaded with plenty of starting experience, having shut down several of the SEC’s top pass rushers last season. I believe that he could play guard in a pinch if necessary. If Cincinnati wants to remain committed to keeping Joe Burrow off of the turf, enlisting Wright’s services as a pass protector is a smart idea. 

New Orleans has a couple of starters up front in the trenches that are slated to hit free agency and Cameron Jordan, now 33 years old, can’t play forever. Clemson’s Bryan Bresee has a lightning-quick first step and can be really explosive off the ball. Once one of the nation’s top recruits coming out of high school, he’s had a tough time staying healthy which has hampered both his development and production. There’s enough athletic traits to work with to warrant taking a chance on him at this point of the draft. 

I gave the Eagles a flashy weapon with their first selection in this mock, but this pick is more in line with their traditional way of doing things by adding to the trenches. Javon Hargrave is set to cash out in free agency and there are some similarities between these two players, both smaller in stature but outstanding pass rushers nonetheless. He’s a historical outlier in terms of size and length for the positon but lining up next to Jordan Davis could make some of his deficiencies defending the run. He’s probably the most polished pass rusher in the class and teams would struggle to find ways to block this defensive line with him added to the mix.

The Chiefs let playoff hero Frank Clark go recently in order to create cap space, leaving a gigantic hole on the edge. Ojulari comes equipped with A+ intangibles, an explosive get-off as a pass rusher and a myriad of pass rushing moves. If he learns how to use his length more effectively and gets a bit stronger in his lower half, he could develop into an excellent pro down the line. Based on what we already know about his character, general managers and coaches alike will be dying to get him in the building.