March Madness 2021: 6 NCAA Tournament Sleepers Who Could Bust Your Bracket

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 13: Head coach Patrick Ewing of the Georgetown Hoyas and his team huddle before the start of the game against the Creighton Bluejays during the Big East Championship game at Madison Square Garden on March 13, 2021 in New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Seed: 6, South

Final Four Odds: +300

Having racked up double-digit losses, the Red Raiders may not look at all that impressive glancing at their 17-10 record this season. But since the Red Raiders play in the nation’s top conference, all 10 of those defeats came against Quad 1 teams including very narrow losses to Big 12 powers Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia meaning they’re rightfully going to be a popular pick to make a run in their portion of the South region. Mac McClung, the Big 12 Newcomer of the Year since he’s a transfer from Georgetown, is the one to watch. Entering the Big 12 Tournament, the junior’s 10 games of 20-plus points were second in the conference behind Oklahoma State stud—and Big 12 Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year—Cade Cunningham’s 11. The Red Raiders lucked out with a pretty reasonable path to the Sweet 16 and, notably, coach Chris Beard is 9-3 in the NCAA Tournament at the school so don’t be scared advancing them. The Action Network says Tech’s chances of reaching the Sweet 16 are 28.77 percent.

Seed: 7, East

Final Four Odds: +750

If James Bouknight—who should be the next UConn wing player taken in the NBA Draft lottery—had been healthy all season long, the Huskies wouldn’t qualify as a sleeper. They’d probably be a No. 4 seed or lower. But when the First-Team All-Big East stud missed eight games with an elbow injury that required surgery, the Huskies struggled mightily (4-4). Since his return, UConn’s been playing its best basketball and peaking at the right time before losing to Creighton in the Big East Tournament semis. When your team features a star who can score as effortlessly as Bouknight and he happens to be surrounded by complimentary shooters, slashers, excellent rebounders, and a top 25 defense (according to KenPom’s ratings), the Huskies clearly have second weekend potential. UConn’s chances of reaching it stand at 23.27 percent, according to the Action Network. 

Seed: 8, Midwest

Final Four Odds: +900

Making a case for the Ramblers as a sleeper would’ve been easier had they earned a different seed like many bracket prognosticators predicted, but I’ll stick with ‘em. The last time the Ramblers were in the NCAA Tournament, Sister Jean became a celebrity. She’s still kicking at the ripe old age of 101 and she’ll be rooting like crazy for another run to the Final Four that won’t catch nearly as many people by surprise as the 2018 team’s did. That’s because Loyola Chicago found itself ranked in the Top 25 for a good portion of the season, sits at 9th in the KenPom ratings (featuring the nation’s top defensive rating), and resides among the top 10 teams in a bunch of other popular metrics. The competition in the Missouri Valley Conference, where the Ramblers won a school record 16 games, ain’t the Big 12 or Big Ten. I’m well aware that running into Illinois in the second-round, should Loyola Chicago take care of a tough Georgia Tech team in the first-round, will be a very tall task. And that’s why the Action Network’s projections give the Ramblers a 12.53 percent chance of doing it. But the seeding discrepancy between where Loyola Chicago, led by MVC Player of the Year Cameron Krutwig, finished analytically and where they ended up slotted by the selection committee is noteworthy. Some college basketball observers thought they could be as high as a No. 6 seed.    

Seed: 11, East (First Four)

Final Four Odds: +3600

The Spartans were one of the last at-large teams into the dance (the selection committee ranked Michigan State as the 43rd best team in the field), but there’s little doubt the perennial Big Ten power is dangerous as a No. 11 seed. Yeah, it has to take care of UCLA in a First Four showdown before a first-round matchup with an underrated BYU squad looms. If you’re the contrarian type, don’t be scared by the fact they’ll be an enormously popular pick to advance because of name recognition alone. In his 23rd straight NCAA Tournament, coach Tom Izzo obviously has the pedigree to lead the Spartans on a run. And don’t forget they played one of the hardest schedules in the nation (No. 8, according to KenPom), beating Ohio State, Michigan, and Illinois this season. If the Spartans already proved they’re capable of knocking off a pair of No. 1 seeds and a No. 2 seed from the nation’s second toughest conference this past season, I think they’re capable of beating No. 3 seed Texas that would stand in their way of a Sweet 16 berth—Action Network gives Michigan State’s chances of reaching a regional semifinal at 15.8 percent. If forward Aaron Henry starts going off for more than his 15.3 PPG average—like he did in those wins against the Wolverines, Buckeyes, and Illini—look out.  

Seed: 12, East

Final Four Odds: +4200

When a team’s hot, roll with ‘em. The Hoyas surprised everyone by ripping off four-straight wins to take the Big East Tournament despite being picked by the coaches as the conference’s worst team when the season started. Patrick Ewing’s squad is playing its best basketball and beat Villanova and smoked Creighton on its way to the program’s eighth conference tournament title, the most of any school in the vaunted league. While the Hoyas might be lacking that true scoring star, the young inside-outside duo of Dante Harris and Qudus Wahab will not be easy to deal with. Jahvon Blair, the Hoyas’ leading scorer at 15.8 PPG, deserves serious respect, too. Georgetown also just happens to be the best 3-point shooting team in the Big East (37.6 percent). The Hoyas will be a very popular pick to upset Colorado—everyone knows you have to pick at least on No. 12 seed to beat a No. 5 seed—and rightfully so. Not surprisingly, projections don’t favor a long run. Georgetown’s chances of reaching the Sweet 16 are 9.34 percent, according to the Action Network.