Jul 20, 2021; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Chris Paul (3) reacts against the Milwaukee Bucks during game six of the 2021 NBA Finals at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
It’s the most wonderful time of the year—that is if you love rumors, sources, speculation, innuendo, and the general ridiculousness that is NBA free agency.
While this summer’s version of free agency will be slightly tapered compared to other years (see below) and players can’t officially sign with squads until Friday at 12:01 p.m. ET, we’ve reached the glorious point in the offseason where unrestricted free agents can begin to (legally, officially) flirt with any team they want (starting at 6 p.m. ET), restricted free agents play a game of cat and mouse, and all 30 teams around the league look to remake themselves in some way, shape, or form for the 2021-22 season starting in October. Make sure the notifications on your phone are properly set.
Tis the season for Woj bombs and Shams surprises, for fan bases waiting on pins and needles to see if their star re-signs or if their favorite franchise (looking at you, Knickerbockers) can finally wrangle a notable name. It’s about to get nuts now that the NBA Draft is over and we named winners and losers and we already highlighted the top free agents and their best fits around the league to get your prepared for the impending insanity. Now that it’s actually here, we have 10 storylines to monitor around the always fun, always entertaining, and forever frenetic NBA free agency.
Bring on the Trades
The 2021 free agent class isn’t as robust as it was shaping up to be this time last year. Especially after Giannis Antetokounmpo signed that max extension with the Bucks just before the 2020-21 regular season tipped off. After Chris Paul and Kawhi Leonard, the headliners of this year’s class, there’s a decided drop off in premium talent. So the trade market—especially the sign-and-trade market for those teams way too capped out to make runs at available free agents—is shaping up to be highly consequential.
We already saw Russell Westbrook get dealt for a third straight offseason. Rumors of blockbuster deals involving Damian Lillard and Ben Simmons will continue to swirl (see below). Big market clubs, as always, will be linked and go hunting for impactful names controlled by teams in smaller markets. Is Oklahoma City really going to keep Kemba Walker? Is De’Aaron Fox and/or Buddy Hield suddenly gettable after some typical head-scratching decisions from the Kings? Would the Wolves really move D’Angelo Russell or Malik Beasley? One name on the trade market that feels like it’s only a matter of time before he gets dealt is Cleveland’s Collin Sexton. Get ready for things to get nutty.
Kawhi Gonna Kawhi
Nobody really knows what Kawhi Leonard’s going to do. If they do, they’re probably bullshitting you since the star is so closed off and his circle so tight it’s incredibly hard to get reliable information about what he’s thinking and what he wants to do. The last time Leonard was a free agent, following the Raptors’ 2019 championship, he created quite a stir flirting with the Lakers before signing with the Clippers. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported earlier that Leonard, who declined his $36 million player option for next season and officially became a free agent, will ultimately re-sign with Los Angeles’ other team that he spent the past two seasons with. After all, the 30-year-old All-NBA talent can get the most money re-upping with the Clippers and recent reports have relayed that he appears to be invested in the team’s future. But Leonard’s unpredictable. And he’s probably going to miss the bulk of next season after reconstructive surgery on his torn ACL which could cloud things. Miami, if it can clear enough space, may take a swing at Leonard, but that hypothetical scenario feels like its cooled way off. Dallas, with its recent manuverings, could come close to having enough money to sign Leonard. And the Knicks could kick the tires on him as well. If you were a betting man, it would be prudent to put dollars on the Clippers because it feels like it’s inevitable Leonard returns. That being said, don’t be surprised if the Klaw throws the entire NBA a curveball since he may listen to other teams.
Would Chris Paul Really Leave Phoenix?
After opting out of his $44 million player option, Paul is a free agent who could test the water to see how big of a contract he can get—despite his advanced age restricting how long he can sign for with a new team. Consensus around the league is CP3, 36, re-ups in some fashion with the Suns after leading them to the Finals, in large part because the Suns can offer him the most money and years thanks to a quirk in the CBA that’s ironically named after Paul. All that being said, Suns owner Robert Sarver made some revealing comments last week that have cast slight doubt about his willingness to pony up the money to retain CP3.
“I think our first priority would be to try and get him back, but that’ll depend on his agent and (Suns GM) James (Jones) and him and me and all that kind of stuff so I don’t know,” Sarver told Arizona Sports 98.7 FM last Wednesday. “We’ll see next week I guess, right?”
Not what you’d like to hear from your notoriously stingy owner if you’re a Suns fan after you just enjoyed the franchise’s best season in almost 30 years. Still, it’d be a shocker if Paul isn’t playing in Phoenix again come fall.
Kyle Lowry's New Home Is...
The best point guard not named Chris Paul available this summer, Kyle Lowry’s days with the Raptors appear to be over. So where does he want to continue his career at age 35 and what are teams willing to offer him? He’s been linked to the Pelicans recently, but the rumors now peg the Heat as heavy favorites to pull off a sign-and-trade (after Miami picked up Goran Dragic’s player option) to acquire the championship point guard. Look out for the Mavericks and Knicks to try their best to secure Lowry. The 76ers have an outside chance to pull something off. Lowry won’t come cheap. Reports are he isn’t looking to take any kind of discount off of the $30 million he made in the final year of his deal. Lowry is the first big domino that needs to fall in free agency for everything else to fall into place.
Then Comes Lonzo's Domino Effect
After Lowry, Lonzo Ball appears to be the next best available point (considering CP3 probably re-signs with Phoenix and Mike Conley re-ups with Jazz) and the former No. 2 pick in the draft is going to elicit interest from a number of clubs. While it’s felt like the Pelicans have been ready to move on from the point guard who has turned himself into a competent shooter, don’t rule out New Orleans matching any offer for him. And if that happens, that could potentially affect the landing spot for a bunch of other free agent point guards. If the Bulls, widely linked to Ball for months now, miss out on him they could then chase Dennis Schroder or Derrick Rose or Patty Mills or Spencer Dinwiddie or Reggie Jackson. Other teams that could be hot on Ball’s tail are the Mavericks and Celtics. The Knicks, as always, should not be ruled out since they need a point guard. While he may not be as dynamic as his younger brother LaMelo, Lonzo will have suitors in free agency and, crazily, his ultimate destination holds the key for a lot of other guys.
How Creative Can the Lakers Get?
Los Angeles made a huge splash trading for Russell Westbrook. But the Lakers new big three will cost $121 million next season. That’s going to severely inhibit what general manager Rob Pelinka can do in adding necessary complementary pieces to make Los Angeles a legit championship threat and not just one on paper (some sportsbooks moved the Lakers to title favorites over the Nets after the Westbrook addition). They have cap holds on Schroder, Alex Caruso, and Talen Horton-Tucker. The three could be brought back or some combo could be signed-then-traded for a 3-and-D wing the Lakers desperately need. LA also really, really, really needs outside shooting otherwise what’s the point of having LeBron James and Russell Westbrook do what they do best (drive and dish)? Pelinka did not make it easy on himself.
The Knicks Have (Lots of) Cap Space (Again)
New York could’ve been players last offseason, but opted to be conservative with their free agent dollars. Now they’re shaping up to potentially have the most cap space to offer in the league ($50-plus million) for a third straight year and it’ll be fascinating to see what moves the front office makes after a surprise run to the postseason. Do they extend Julius Randle? Do they make a run at CP3, Lowry, Ball, or Mike Conley to address their forever in-limbo point guard situation? Would DeMar DeRozan constitute a nice addition to a roster that clearly could use more scorers? Is there a trade out there for a superstar (Damian Lillard?!?) or a max player they can easily absorb (like Ben Simmons)? The Knicks could package a bunch of young talent and future draft picks for just about anybody these days. A season removed from winning 21 games, New York is ahead of schedule and might finally be an attractive destination in free agency for the first time in forever.
The Other Teams Lurking
I’m sure you understand why the Knicks and Lakers, despite their very different situations heading into free agency, will garner a lot of attention. But there are other teams, including some very good playoff squads, dying to make a big splash. Keep an eye on the Heat and the Mavericks as teams that could get aggressive and snatch a star. Both have some cap space to work with, but if they can get creative they could land an excellent player to complement Jimmy Butler and Luka Doncic, respectively. On a different note, what happens with Duncan Robinson and the Heat will be fascinating because you know the restricted free agent will be a hot commodity. Same goes for Tim Hardaway Jr.’s situation in Dallas, although he’s an unrestricted free agent.
The Warriors are light years into the luxury tax, but since they’re in championship mode with their aging core and still hold valuable, young assets that could be attractive to teams in the trade market, maybe they can get a fourth All-Star to make a serious push in the Western Conference next season. New Orleans will never be a place high-level free agents flock to, but if the Pelicans clear enough space they could add a much needed impact player to suit up alongside Zion Williamson. And we all know the clock is ticking on Williamson’s time with the Pelicans after two seasons and zero playoff appearances. Keep an eye on the Spurs, too. They do things their own way with Gregg Popovich still leading the charge, but San Antonio could have significant room under the cap to remake its roster around an attractive young core.
Damian Llilard Done in Portland?
What’s Dame Time’s deal? The elite point guard says he wants to stick it out in Portland, despite reports swirling that he’s on the verge of asking out. I’ll continue to reiterate that Lillard has always professed he’s about loyalty and that he loves living in Portland. So I’ll believe he’s done in the Pacific Northwest when he finally says so himself and stops clowning reporters on Twitter. Absolutely don’t expect the Blazers to do something ultra-shady and deal their franchise player while he’s balling for Team USA in Tokyo. But maybe expect something to finally give if Lillard is woefully underwhelmed by the Blazers’ offseason additions—and there may not be much Portland can do to drastically switch things up its hairy salary cap situation—while he watches Western Conference rivals load up. Philadelphia and New York are two logical landing spots for Lillard in the East should he decide he’s done in Portland, but maybe a mystery candidate emerges out of nowhere.
Who Trades for Ben Simmons?
Because we all know he’s getting traded, right? Can’t blame Daryl Morey for asking for the moon for Ben Simmons right now as he reportedly (and comically) did when discussing shipping the Sixers’ embattled point guard to Golden State for Andrew Wiggins, James Wiseman, the Nos. 7 and 14 picks in last week’s draft. But with every other team in the NBA knowing that Philadelphia has a serious Simmons problem it’s going to inhibit what Morey can get back for his dynamically defensive point guard who is scared to shoot, is owed a gargantuan amount of money over the next four seasons (approximately $145 million), and a has a trade kicker. The Sixers seem intent on waiting for the right offer—whatever that ends up being—to materialize before the season starts, yet it seems practically a lock that Simmons won’t suit for the Philly ever again after that incredible flameout in the Eastern Conference semis against the Hawks. You know the Sixers would die to flip Simmons (plus a bunch of picks) for Lillard, but they may have to settle for something less impactful (like CJ McCollum or Pascal Siakam or two or three yutes on the Knicks plus a few draft picks).