When is enough going to be enough?
Because as the Wizards waste away another season and Bradley Beal keeps balling at an All-NBA level, the questions about how much longer the star shooting guard will put up with losing in the nation’s capital figure to only get louder. And if we’re basing assumptions about desire and devotion based on body language, Beal ain’t exactly giving off positive vibes these days. Would anybody be surprised if sooner rather than later he requests the Wizards ship him out of DC?
Bradley Beal goes off for FORTY-SEVEN.
…Wizards lose by 18 😔 pic.twitter.com/LSs5t4OpjV
— Complex Sports (@ComplexSports) January 28, 2021
We already saw one superstar force his way out of a miserable situation in January and while Beal doesn’t exactly have the influence over his organization anywhere near like James Harden did with the Rockets, their situations do feature some parallels. Beal, a 27-year-old two-time All-Star selection and a top 20 player in the league smack dab in the middle of his prime appears frustrated with the Wizards who forever can’t get their shit together. The acquisition of Russell Westbrook has done nothing to make Washington better, the prospects of the Wizards’ fortunes drastically changing for the better appear far-fetched, and Beal only has one more year remaining after this season on the extension he signed back in 2019 before he can opt out. It feels like something has to give here.
While the Wizards probably aren’t going to actively shop Beal just yet because they won't start sweating about the prospects of losing him for nothing until the summer, surely they will continue to field phone calls and maybe even some offers from teams interested in the sharpshooter’s services as the league watches Washington wallow. So what would a deal for Beal look like? And what teams could make a serious play for the Wizards’ leading scorer? Just a few weeks after shipping Harden to Brooklyn secured Houston an absurd amount of first-round draft picks, it’s an intriguing exercise trying to forecast what a deal for Beal could net the Wizards and what teams could credibly land him.
It seems like every time an All-NBA caliber player becomes available on the trade market, a new compensation precedent is set and that certainly happened in January when the Rockets received three future first-round draft picks and four future first-round swaps from the Nets in exchange for two more years of service from The Beard. Beal isn't a former MVP, he isn't a three-time scoring champ, and he isn't one of the best one-on-one players in NBA history. So it seems far-fetched the Wizards are going to get anything close to the haul Houston demanded for dealing its franchise player.
But Beal has made himself into one of the most reliable scorers in the NBA and a candidate to make an All-NBA team every season for the foreseeable future. And he’s only 27 without much of an injury history and despite Washington’s losing culture he’s basically been controversy free since the Wizards drafted him with the third overall selection in 2012 out of Florida.
His skillset and standing around the league align more favorably with Paul George or Anthony Davis—two stars that were dealt a few offseasons ago—than with Harden. However, it’s not a perfect comparison since PG and The Brow possessed more impressive resumes when they were shipped from the Thunder and Pelicans, respectively, to the Clippers and Lakers, respectively, in 2019 than Beal's. Predictably, PG and AD netted their former clubs huge hauls.
The Lakers gave up three promising young players in Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, and Josh Hart along with three future first-round selections in order to get Davis. That was a lot, but for the talents of a top 5 player who helped lead the NBA’s most glamorous franchise to another a championship this past October, it was obviously worth it.
- Heat?
- Sixers?
5 teams that should trade for Bradley Beal NOW.https://t.co/1PbTq1Gm61
— Complex Sports (@ComplexSports) January 28, 2021
The Clippers had to give up the farm for George—Danilo Gallinari, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and seven future first-round selections—but let's not forget the Clippers were willing to get nuts and give up so much because trading for PG guaranteed that Kawhi Leonard would sign with LA’s other team. So really that eye-popping trade should be looked at as Kawhi and PG for nearly a decade's worth of future first-round picks plus an extremely promising young point guard in Gilgeous-Alexander.
Chris Paul was sent from Houston to Oklahoma City in exchange for Russell Westbrook and four first-round picks that featured various levels of protections and swap options two summers ago. And maybe most surprisingly, New Orleans got a huge return for Jrue Holiday, a one-time All-Star and two-time All-Defensive Team member, when they shipped him to Milwaukee this past offseason. In return, New Orleans hauled in two future first-round selections and two future first-round swaps in the trade that officially included two other teams (Denver and Oklahoma City).
In the end, compensation will of course depend on who is trying to pry Beal from the Wizards, how desperate they are to acquire him, and what assets that hypothetical team is willing to cough up. We used to see teams part with a future first-round pick and second-round selection, plus a player or two of varying talent (i.e. the Kyrie Irving to Boston trade in 2017 and the Leonard to Toronto trade in 2018) in past deals for top-tier All-Stars. But it's become trendy for the new wave of NBA general managers to demand multiple first-round selections in transactions since draft picks have become a franchise's most important asset if they don’t have a superstar signed for the next 3-5 years.
Beal’s entering the prime of his career, putting up career numbers, and has the potential to be a top 10 player by the time he reaches 30. Translation: he ain’t gonna be cheap. It’s safe to assume the Wizards will demand a minimum of two first-round picks, if not easily more based on recent NBA trade history, and possibly a young future stud in exchange for Beal.
Where Could He Land?
On Wednesday we highlighted five teams that could be in play for Beal’s services: The Heat, 76ers, Hawks, Nuggets, and Warriors. We’ll throw in a sixth since our friend over at The Athletic, Shams Charania, reported that the Pelicans could look shop Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick after they’ve gotten off to a disappointing start.
NECESSARY DISCLAIMER BEFORE YOU KEEP SCROLLING: It’s always overly simplistic to run trade scenarios through various internet machines because deals are way more complicated than we make them out to be. But a swap between Washington and New Orleans isn’t particularly difficult to make. The Pelicans have a TON of future draft picks thanks to the Davis and Holiday deals of recent years. Ball is a restricted free agent this summer, Redick could net the Wizards something else if they shipped him off to contender looking for veteran shooting, and what’s the point of piling up draft picks if you can’t use them for something shiny?
The Hawks, in theory, could make sense since Atlanta features enough notable young players enticing enough to go the other way. John Collins, a restricted free agent this summer, would likely be the centerpiece. But would Washington trade its franchise player within the division? Another potential sticking point: it might take too many guys for the Hawks to roughly match Beal’s salary ($28 million)—if we’re talking a straight up swap here and not complicating matters by involving a third team—to finalize something. But if Atlanta is willing to part with enough young players—or if Danilo Gallinari is enticing enough for the Wizards when he’s eligible to be dealt after Feb. 22—they have enough future first-round picks and players, in theory, to get Beal.
Same goes for the Heat. You would think Miami would love to add someone of Beal’s caliber to its roster. They’ve sputtered out of the gates so far this season and a Beal-Jimmy Butler-Bam Adebayo three-headed monster would be scary. Miami was loosely mentioned as a destination for Harden, but we never heard any serious engagement or trade proposals. The Heat certainly has enough young pieces to entice the Wizards to part with Beal. But—just as with the Hawks—unless Pat Riley wowed the Wizards with an offer why would Washington deal him within the division?
Shipping him to the Western Conference so you only see him two times a season might be more amenable, especially if the Nuggets acquiesce their (reported) stance of not making Michael Porter Jr. available in any trades unless it’s for a superstar. We can argue all day long if Beal qualifies as a superstar, but Porter’s just 22 and he appears destined to be an elite scorer. He would represent great return for the Wizards. Throwing in Gary Harris, RJ Hampton, a first-round, and second-round draft pick is a lot going back to Washington, but we had to make the salaries roughly match. We kept the first-round draft pick compensation to one here just because of Porter’s upside.
Another Western Conference squad that crazily could be a landing spot if times get desperate? The Warriors. Andrew Wiggins has been playing well for Golden State, still has upside since he's only 25, and his salary ($29.5 million) matches quite nicely with Beal’s. We all know Beal’s the superior player and the Warriors would have to part with several draft picks—which they don’t have a ton of and will undoubtedly need them in a few short seasons with Steph Curry turning 33 in March and Klay Thompson’s shaky future following two devastating injuries—to entice the Wizards to part with Beal. Wiggins as the centerpiece of Washington's return isn't exactly stellar, and he doesn't present a ton of value for a team that will continue to rebuild. But if things were to turn toxic in DC and the Wizards wanted an easy, makeable out, this deal is doable—again, for our overly simplistic purposes here.
