Oct 27, 2019; Jacksonville, FL, USA; New York Jets running back Le'Veon Bell (26) runs the ball during the fourth quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
Last week, we talked about the importance of eliminating overthinking when it comes to fantasy decision-making. In Week 7, Aaron Rodgers squared up with the lowly Oakland Raiders pass defense. But because Davante Adams was sidelined, some fantasy managers went against the numbers, opting to play another signal-caller ahead of Rodgers.
You probably remember what happened next: Rodgers amassed 429 passing yards and six total touchdowns, as he flourished against Oakland’s miserable pass rush. The matchup made it clear as day that an explosive performance was forthcoming.
But therein lies the fantasy conundrum: sometimes the matchup is deceiving. For example, in Week 8, Mike Evans went up against the Titans’ strong pass defense. The matchup sure didn’t look favorable. And then Evans had a casual 11 catches, 198 yards, and two touchdowns. If you put Evans on your bench because of the matchup, you played yourself.
The lesson here is clear: when it comes to a certain caliber of player (Rodgers, Evans, etc.), always play him. No matter what. It becomes less clear when you’re talking about guys on the next tier (Le’Veon Bell, Jared Goff, DJ Chark, and others of the ilk).
So, which players and storylines will define Week 9 of the 2019 NFL season? We’re here to give you a heads-up on what might unfold.
Below, we lay out players who are must-starts and must-sits for your fantasy lineup, based on variables such as opponent strength, recent trends, and injuries.
If you’d like to keep tabs on how we’ve been performing, check out our picks for Week 8.
Start 'Em
Jimmy Garoppolo
Cue “Feeling Myself.” The 49ers are 7-0 after a 51-13 shellacking of the Panthers Sunday. San Francisco is playing well largely because of its defense, as Jimmy GQ has been good but not great.
The cure for an underwhelming season? A matchup with the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards are allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season and the third-most total TDs. This should be an easy win for the boys from the Bay and a big day for the former Patriots backup.
Le'Veon Bell
In his first year with the Jets, Bell has yet to accrue a truly Le’Veon Bell-like day. He hasn’t had a breakout performance, and he’s particularly struggled in the past two weeks. In the Jets’ 29-15 loss at Jacksonville Sunday, Bell had nine carries for 23 yards (2.6 YPC) and three catches for 12 yards. In other words, he had a downright bad fantasy day.
But he gets salvation this week: an AFC East matchup with the Dolphins. Miami has been gashed by opposing running backs this year. This is a prime opportunity for Bell to finally have a signature performance.
Austin Ekeler
It’s been tough to get a read on the Chargers’ backfield since Melvin Gordon returned from his contract holdout. Should you start Gordon, or Ekeler, or neither of them? After he was a top RB option early in the season, Ekeler's status has significantly regressed.
He’s still gotten a consistent volume of targets, though, and has caught a TD in four games this season, including each of the past two weeks. And this week the Chargers face the Packers, who are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. Ekeler should be in your lineup in Week 9.
Eric Ebron
How about them Colts? They had no business beating Denver on Sunday. The Broncos owned that game from start to finish. But Jacoby Brissett is a magician.
Ebron hasn't been the TD machine this season like he was last year, but this week he draws a Pittsburgh team that, despite the quality addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick, is No. 30 in TDs allowed to opposing tight ends this season. Look for the UNC alum to snag his fourth score of 2019.
Gardner Minshew
Much like Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew is magic. The 2019 sixth-round pick has the Jaguars at 4-4 and feeling strong after back-to-back wins. Minshew has been especially good in both of those games, torching the Bengals and Jets. On Sunday against New York, he completed 22-of-34 passes for 279 yards and three TDs, accruing a passer rating of 119.6.
The Texans' passing D has left much to be desired this season so expect Minshew to continue his scorching play, which means you should be playing his favorite target, DJ Chark as well.
Sit ’Em
David Montgomery
Montgomery had easily his best day as a pro in Week 8. He got a season-high 27 carries (for 135 yards and a score) and a season-high five targets (catching four balls for 12 yards). Montgomery said coach Matt Nagy had given him some helpful advice: “Just as he said, be patient, whenever your opportunity comes you’ve got to try to be ready for it. I just tried to make sure I took advantage of every opportunity today.”
He certainly did. He draws a tough opponent in Week 9, though, with a matchup against the Eagles. Philly has one of the best run defenses in the league and on Sunday held Frank Gore to 34 yards and out of the endzone. Plus the Eagles are feeling good after their bounce-back win against Buffalo. It’s great to see some juice from Montgomery, but you should go with another option (if you have a viable one) this week.
Mark Andrews
Andrews is another guy whose stock started sky-high—he had two 100-yard, one-score games to open the season—but has cooled off. In his last outing, against Seattle, Andrews was targeted eight times, but he and Lamar Jackson only connected on two of them (for 39 total yards).
Andrews is still one of the most dynamic TEs in the league, and his future is extremely bright, but he has a nightmare matchup against New England in primetime Sunday. So far this season, the Patriots have allowed a grand total of zero TDs to opposing TEs. Yikes.
Mark Ingram
Here’s a good rule: just bench everyone playing against the Patriots. Ingram has been a TD monster, with two games with two-plus scores, but he's also struggled in the past four weeks. Against the Seahawks, he had 12 carries for 46 yards (3.8 YPC) and only one catch for 7 yards.
The Patriots have one of the best all-around defenses in the league, and they’ve absolutely locked down opposing backs, allowing an average of 87 rushing yards per game. Nick Chubb racked up 131 yards Sunday, but he also had two fumbles and failed to get into the end zone. We don’t like the matchup for Ingram in Week 9.
Daniel Jones
After winning his first two games as QB1, Jones and the Giants have lost four straight. He was impressive this past Sunday, racking up 322 passing yards and four TDs in nearly leading the Giants to an upset win over the Lions. Giants fans have reason to be excited about Jones, but not about the matchup this week.
It’s always fun when Big Blue and America’s Team square off on Monday Night Football, but Dallas’ passing D is practically as good as they come. They’re allowing the fourth-fewest TDs and fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs in 2019. You know Jones and the Giants will be fired up to take on their rivals on the national stage, but that emotion could work against the rookie.
Ty Johnson
Johnson was the darling of the waiver wire after Kerryon Johnson's injury, but his Week 9 workload disappointed fantasy managers. The 2019 sixth-round pick got seven carries for 25 yards and four targets in the passing game, catching one ball for 13 yards. The Lions distributed volume between Johnson, Tra Carson (12 carries, 34 yards), and Paul Perkins (three carries, 4 yards).
This week, Detroit heads to Oakland. Jon Gruden’s defense has been atrocious against the pass (listen up, Matthew Stafford and Kenny Golladay fantasy managers), but has been stout against the run allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs. Johnson isn’t getting enough volume to justify a start anyway, but the matchup makes him a must-bench this week.