We could get cute here and focus on the games going down over the weekend where the best action is happening. But, real talk, we're all watching the three Thursday games because what the hell else do you do on Thanksgiving besides stuff your face, drink like an animal, watch football, and gamble on it?
So we're going to forsake picking the week's biggest and best games, like Jets-Bengals (JK), and focus solely on picking winners on the most American of holidays. We could tell you which way to lean in that massive Ravens-Niners tilt going down Sunday with a significant to some 1 p.m. ET kickoff. We could pick the Sunday night game between the Patriots and Texans where the Patriots are 4-1 against the spread in the last four meetings between teacher (Bill Belichick) and his former pupil (Bill O'Brien). We also could give you a selection on the excellent Monday Night Football matchup between the Vikings and the Seahawks that's going down in Seattle where the Seahawks are just 1-4 against the spread this season.
But nah. We're here to pick the three Thanksgiving and nothing else. As usual, one of us has provided you with excellent research and analysis while the other wings it.
Bears (-1) at Lions
The Lions were actually 1.5-point favorites in this game as of last week, but Detroit had to go and lose to Washington and QB Jeff Driskel is now listed on the Lions injury report. It's a rivalry game and I'd normally advocate taking the points here, but—let's be real here—as bad as the Bears have looked at times this year they're not nearly as bad as the Lions. Now for the trends that cement the pick: The favorite in this matchup is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five contests while the Bears are 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.
Bills (+7) at Cowboys
Did some digging and found out that during the Jason Garrett era, the Cowboys are 4-9-1 ATS as a 7-point home favorites or higher. That deserves a Pusha-T "yugh." LOAD. THE. BILLS.
Falcons (+7) vs Saints
Something seems off about the Saints so I'm not trusting them on the road, giving a full touchdown. It's a division game so I'll gladly take all the points I can get knowing that the underdog in this series is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
Browns (-2) at Steelers
The Steelers are starting some dude named Duck at QB and the Browns have been playing much better the past few weeks. Give me the Browns to cover on the road.
Packers (-6.5) at Giants
The Packers need a bounce back game and what better team to do it against than the Giants.
Buccaneers (+1) at Jaguars
I love the road teams this week. I actually really like the Buccaneers ML this week, so why not take the points too.